Tutorial 2 – Behavior and Structure

IE2141 Systems Thinking and Dynamics

Department of Industrial Systems Engineering and Management (ISEM)

College of Design and Engineering
National University of Singapore

IE2141 Systems Thinking and Dynamics – ISEM Department, National University of Singapore 1
 Acknowledgement
The preparation of this module has been made possible by the
support from IE2141 teaching team, and the past teaching
materials developed by A/Prof. Aaron Chia.

IE2141 Systems Thinking and Dynamics – ISEM Department, National University of Singapore 2
 Q1 – Behavior Over Time Graph
Having learnt the behavior over time graph (BOTG), identify one real-life
example that matches each of the following cases. Explain your example,
with clear specification of the y-axis variable and time scale on the x-axis.
 Steady state
Hints:
 Constant increase / decrease
Population, fishing, economic
 Exponential increase / decrease
growth, investment, car
 Goal seeking
ownership, deforestation, etc.
 S-shape growth
 Constant / damped /expanding oscillation
 Overshoot and collapse
 S-shape with overshoot
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 Q1.a – Behavior Over Time Graph
a) Steady state.
To Discuss:
What is the state variable? In what system?

[state variable]
What is the time span we are looking at?
What is the main reason for the state variable to remain
steady?
What are the potential events that will break the steady
state?

Answer: Time
[t0] [t1] [t2]

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 Q1.b – Behavior Over Time Graph
b) Constant increase.
To Discuss:
What is the state variable? In what system?

[state variable]
What is the time span we are looking at?
What is the main reason for the state variable to
increase with a constant rate?
What are the potential events that will break the trend?

Answer: Time
[t0] [t1] [t2]

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 Q1.c – Behavior Over Time Graph
c) Constant decrease.
To Discuss:
What is the state variable? In what system?

[state variable]
What is the time span we are looking at?
What is the main reason for the state variable to
decrease with a constant rate?
What are the potential events that will break the trend?

Answer: Time
[t0] [t1] [t2]

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 Q1.d – Behavior Over Time Graph
d) Exponential increase.
To Discuss:
What is the state variable? In what system?

[state variable]
What is the time span we are looking at?
What is the main reason for the state variable to
increase with an increasing rate?
What are the potential events that will break the trend?

Answer: Time
[t0] [t1] [t2]

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 Q1.e – Behavior Over Time Graph
e) Exponential decrease.
To Discuss:
What is the state variable? In what system?

[state variable]
What is the time span we are looking at?
What is the main reason for the state variable to
decrease with a decreasing rate?
What are the potential events that will break the trend?

Answer: Time
[t0] [t1] [t2]

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 Q1.f – Behavior Over Time Graph
f) Goal seeking.

[state variable]
To Discuss:
What is the state variable? In what system?
What is the time span we are looking at?
What is the main reason for the state variable to
converge to a specific target value? Time

[state variable]
What are the potential events that will break the trend? [t0] [t1] [t2]

Answer:

Time
[t0] [t1] [t2]
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 Q1.g – Behavior Over Time Graph
g) Constant / Damped / Expanding Oscillation.

[state variable]
To Discuss:
What is the state variable? In what system?
Time
What is the time span we are looking at?
What is the main reason for the state variable to [t0] [t1] [t2]
oscillate?
Is it a constant, damped or expanding oscillation?

[state variable]
What are the potential events that break the trend?

[state variable]
Answer:
Time
Time

[t0] [t1] [t2]

[t0] [t1] [t2]
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 Q1.h – Behavior Over Time Graph
h) S-shape.
To Discuss:

[state variable]
What is the state variable? In what system?
What is the time span we are looking at?
What is the main reason for the state variable to
increase with an increasing rate before converge to
a specific target value?
What are the potential events that break the trend?
Time
Answer: [t0] [t1] [t2]

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 Q1.i – Behavior Over Time Graph
i) S-shape with overshoot.
To Discuss:

[state variable]
What is the state variable? In what system?
What is the time span we are looking at?
What is the main reason for the state variable to
increase with an increasing rate before oscillate
around the target value?
What are the potential events that break the trend?
Time
Answer: [t0] [t1] [t2]

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 Q1.j – Behavior Over Time Graph
j) Overshoot and collapse.
To Discuss:

[state variable]
What is the state variable? In what system?
What is the time span we are looking at?
What is the main reason for the state variable to
increase with overshoot and collapse?
What are the potential events that break the trend?

Time
Answer:
[t0] [t1] [t2]

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 Q2.a – Mapping CLD to BOTG
What is the behavior over time graph (BOTG) presented by the following
system structure described by the causal loop diagram (CLD)?
a)
+
A. Goal Seeking
Net Increase State of
B. S-shape growth
R
+
Rate the System C. S-shape with overshoot
+ Carrying
Capacity
D. Overshoot and collapse

-
B
Resource +
Fractional Net
Adequacy
Increase Rate

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 Q2.b – Mapping CLD to BOTG
What is the behavior over time graph (BOTG) presented by the following
system structure described by the causal loop diagram (CLD)?
b)
A. Constant Increase
B. Constant Decrease
+
C. Exponential Increase
D. Exponential Decrease
Constant Rate State Variable

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 Q2.c – Mapping CLD to BOTG
What is the behavior over time graph (BOTG) presented by the following
system structure described by the causal loop diagram (CLD)?
c)
A. Exponential Increase
B. Exponential Decrease
- C. Goal Seeking
Decrement
B
State D. Oscillation
Rate Variable

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 Q2.d – Mapping CLD to BOTG
What is the behavior over time graph (BOTG) presented by the following
system structure described by the causal loop diagram (CLD)?
d)
+
+
A. S-shape growth
Net Increase State of
Consumption / Erosion
of Carrying Capacity
B. S-shape with overshoot
R
+
Rate the System
C. Oscillation
D. Overshoot and collapse
+
B
-

Carrying

- Capacity
B
Resource
Fractional Net
Adequacy
Increase Rate
+
+

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 Q2.e – Mapping CLD to BOTG
What is the behavior over time graph (BOTG) presented by the following
system structure described by the causal loop diagram (CLD)?
e)
A. Exponential Increase
B. Exponential Decrease
+ C. Goal Seeking
Increment
R
State D. Oscillation
Rate Variable

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 Q2.f – Mapping CLD to BOTG
What is the behavior over time graph (BOTG) presented by the following
system structure described by the causal loop diagram (CLD)?
f) State of
+
the System A. Goal Seeking
B. S-shape growth
-
C. S-shape with overshoot
B D. Oscillation
Discrepancy
+

Corrective Goal (Desired

+
Action State of System)

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 Q2.g – Mapping CLD to BOTG
What is the behavior over time graph (BOTG) presented by the following
system structure described by the causal loop diagram (CLD)?
g)
A. Constant Increase
B. Constant Decrease
C. Exponential Increase
-
D. Exponential Decrease
Constant Rate State Variable

IE2141 Systems Thinking and Dynamics – ISEM Department, National University of Singapore 38
 Q2.h – Mapping CLD to BOTG
What is the behavior over time graph (BOTG) presented by the following
system structure described by the causal loop diagram (CLD)?
h)
+ A. S-shape growth
Net Increase State of
B. S-shape with overshoot
R
+
Rate the System C. Oscillation
+ Carrying
Capacity
D. Overshoot and collapse

-
B
Resource +
Fractional Net
Adequacy
Increase Rate

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 Q2.i – Mapping CLD to BOTG
What is the behavior over time graph (BOTG) presented by the following
system structure described by the causal loop diagram (CLD)?
i) State of
+
the System A. Goal Seeking
B. S-shape growth
-
C. S-shape with overshoot
B D. Oscillation
Discrepancy
+

Corrective Goal (Desired

+
Action State of System)

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 Q3 – Behavior and Structure of a System
Recall the following essay on “Heroin Supply” and answer the questions which leads
to the behavior and structure of the system.

When Heroin Supply Cut, Crime Rises, Says Report

Boston Globe, Apr 22, 1976, By Saul Friedman

The next time you hear of a big drug bust and the seizure of large quantities of heroin, don’t go believing
that your city’s streets are necessarily any safer.

Most people believe that the stronger law enforcement works by the Police Department to get drugs off
the streets, the safer those streets become. Evidence from the Drug Abuse Council, however, challenges
the prevailing belief.

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 Q3 – Behavior and Structure of a System
In fact, a new study of heroin traffic in Detroit has concluded that the tighter the heroin market, the
more likely you will become a victim of a robbery or a burglary by an addict in need of a fix.

The study, which is to be released in a week by the privately funded Drug Abuse Council, is in the
hands of Detroit officials. But it has implications beyond Detroit. It supplies the first substantial
statistical evidence challenging the conventional assumption that law enforcement campaigns to
reduce the supplies of heroin will lead to a reduction of crime.

‘If the price of a bag of street heroin increased from $7 to $9 in any given month,’ the Drug Abuse
Council said, ‘the number of revenues raising crimes which occurred at the rate of about 11,000 a
month would increase to almost 12,000 a month because of heroin alone.’

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 Q3 – Behavior and Structure of a System
a) Identify FOUR key state variables to be observed in the system. Choose a proper
time horizon and draw BOTGs for their hypothesized behaviors.

Sample Answer:

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 Q3 – Behavior and Structure of a System
b) Describe the behaviors of the key state variables on the BOTGs at different
stages. Formulate a hypothesis that explains the dynamics of the problem.

Sample Answer:

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 Q3 – Behavior and Structure of a System
c) Develop a causal loop diagram (CLD) that is possible to generate the behavior
shown on the BOTGs. What are the basic mechanisms (causal relationships, and
feedback loops) of the system?

Sample Answer:

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 Q3 – Behavior and Structure of a System
d) What are the assumptions (on the variables and their causal relationships)?

Sample Answer:

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 Assignment #2
Similar as the “heroin supply” case discussed in Tutorial 1 & 2, identify a real-life system problem with your team and
provide the following information. (Total 100 marks)
1) Describe the system problem you identified. Indicate if it is the same, revised or different from the problem in
Assignment #1. (10 marks)
2) What are the key state variables you would like to observe (choose 3 – 5)? They shall reflect the important
behaviors of the system overtime. (10 marks)
3) Choose a time horizon to observe the behavior of the system. Why is it a reasonable time span? (10 marks)
4) Draw BOTGs for each of the key state variables. (10 marks)
5) Describe the behaviors of the key state variables on the BOTGs at different stages. Formulate a hypothesis that
explains the dynamics of the problem. (10 marks)
6) Develop a causal loop diagram (CLD) that is possible to generate the behavior shown on the BOTGs. (10 marks)
7) Define all other variables used in the CLD (other than the key state variables on BOTGs). (10 marks)
8) Describe each pair of causal relationships on CLD. (10 marks)
9) What are the assumptions (on the variables and their causal relationships)? (10 marks)
10) Identify all feedback loops on CLD. How do they relate to the BOTG? (10 marks)

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 Simple Rubrics for Assignment Grading
For each assignment question, the marks will be given based on following criteria.

10 All Correct with Clear and

9 Concise Elaboration
8 All Correct
7
6 Partially Correct
5
4 Completed
3
2 Attempted
1
0 Not attempted
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THANK YOU
The preparation of this module has been made possible by the
support from IE2141 teaching team, and the past teaching
materials developed by A/Prof. Aaron Chia.

IE2141 Systems Thinking and Dynamics – ISEM Department, National University of Singapore 57