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2 Approaches To Conflict Analysis
2 Approaches To Conflict Analysis
Mathematics
Jurisprudence
(Game theory)
International
Anthropology
relations
Color code
This chapter: “anatomy of conflict”
Behavioral
Cultural studies
In examples and later chapters economics
(Social)
psychology
Minor role in this course
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2.2 International relations (IR) theories
2.2.1 Overview
Provide a conceptual framework with the goal to better understand processes in international
relations. There are many different such theories.
*Important: this is IR liberalism; not identical to economic liberalism and can be very different from the colloquial usage of the word in US politics
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2.2.2 IR realism
Early IR realist thinkers
Thucydides (~460-~400 BC)
‘Father of IR’, ‘first scientific historian’: objectivity & testable hypotheses instead of myths
and songs (controversial) comparison
From todays perspective not so objective in
to modern standards
Writes “History of the Peloponnesian War” (unfinished)
− Peloponnesian League (leader: Sparta) vs. Delian league (leader: Athens), 431-404 BC
− Makes ample use of semi-fictitious conversations
Name giver for the Thucydides trap (→ US-China relations): “when one great power
threatens to displace another, war is almost always the result.” (Graham T. Allison)
Positions:
− Anarchy is the dominating principle in IR, hence security is the primary goal for individual states
− Power/capabilities to dominate and defend are very unequally distributed
→ Every state must acknowledge this and adapts its behavior accordingly
→ States have limited options in their foreign policy
− Morality plays a minor role: justice is not about equal treatment for all, but understanding one’s
standing in the international order. The state has a task (provide security) so moral plays a
smaller role
Chapter 5,
We both know that the decisions about justice are made in human discussions only when both
paragraph 89
sides are under equal compulsion, but when one side is stronger, it gets as much as it can, and
the weak must accept that. Justice only happens when both parties are equally strong which happens rarely
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Niccolò Machiavelli (1469–1527)
Public official for diplomatic and military affairs in Renaissance Florence
Writes “The Prince” (dedicated to Lorenzo di Piero de' Medici)
Challenges view that politics should be moral/virtuous (cf. e.g. Plato, Aristoteles, Cicero, St. Augustine, St.
Thomas Aquinas etc.)
Supreme task of a political leader is safety and survival of state: separation of politics and
ethics Safety and survival of state are most important goals
Justifies immoral actions in politics, but admits that they are evil
Lion (power) and a fox (deception) as symbols for guiding principles for foreign relations
Thomas Hobbes (1588-1683)
English scientist and philosopher during Enlightenment period
Translates “History of the Peloponnesian War”, writes “Leviathan” (favors strong monarchical
commonwealth)
Humans are not moral beings, but have “a perpetual and restless desire of power after power,
that ceases only in death” (Leviathan XI 2)
→ Would lead to war of all against all
→ Hobbes proposes “social contract”: people in a society cede rights to sovereign authority in exchange
for protection
The state is the highest entity of sovereignty and hence states are the main actors in the international system.
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Case in point: the 30 years’ war and the “Westphalian System”
Common reading
Westphalia treaty established principles of
Catholic states Treaty of Westphalia Independent and sovereign states
Austria, Spain, (1648) Territorial integrity
Holy Roman Empire Non-interference in domestic
affairs
Belligerents 1618–1648
Start of age of classical European
diplomacy
Protestant states and
allies → State-centric system
Ratification of the Peace of Münster → Primacy of national interests
France, England, Dutch (Gerard ter Borch, Münster, 1648)
Republic, Sweden → Starting point for modern system of
great powers, balance of power.
France wanted to achieve an equilibrium of force especially against
catholic Spain (big superpower at the time)
This principle of sovereignty is still enshrined in the UN charter. It has been discussed in the context of humanitarian
intervention (see later).
Caveat: “common reading” has been challenged* for different reasons
The Treaty was not the birth of the idea of sovereignty: this existed before
The Treaty is not the birth of the idea of a nation state: this development only begins with the American & French
revolution and was not completed until after WWI
*See e.g. Krasner, S. D. Sovereignty: Organized Hypocrisy, Princeton: Princeton University Press (1999) 24.09.2020 | Philip Grech | 59
Modern formulations
20th century realism is a reaction to liberalism (cf. below). Morgenthau’s six principles of classical IR realism
(paraphrased):*
*Politics among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace, first edition in 1948
2 No dominion over independent states UN Charter, Art. 1(2): To develop friendly relations among nations
(e.g. by inheritance, exchange, purchase, or based on respect for the principle of equal rights and self-
donation) determination of peoples, and to take other appropriate
measures to strengthen universal peace;
5 No forceful interference UN Charter Art. 2(4): All Members shall refrain in their
with the constitution or government of another international relations from the threat or use of force against
state the territorial integrity or political independence of any state,
or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the
United Nations.
IR Neoliberalism (=neoliberal institutionalism) (e.g. Robert Keohane, Joseph Nye; after 1945)
Rejects idealism; respects self-interest emphasize on the importance of institutions
Anarchy still the dominating principle in IR, but institutions can help to mitigate this effect But: Neoliberalism also
Emphasizes long-term absolute gains/welfare instead of short-term relative gains recognizes that
democracies tend to go to
costs of war are too high War is to costly, we have to do sth against it
war with non-democracies
Complex interdependence: society, NGO, multinational corporations, etc.
Integrates social sciences
Empirical observation after WW II that democratic countries do not go to war against each other Democratic Peace
Limitations: Observation: democracies tends to not go to war one against each other
Theory (dyadic version)
1. Precise definition of “democracy”, “war” potentially difficult (cf. Kantian Liberal Peace)
2. Exceptions exist: Spanish-American war; Fashoda incident (F and UK); both 1898
Reading suggestion: Francis Fukuyama, “The end of history?”, 1989 24.09.2020 | Philip Grech | 66
According to Nye: Moral of foreign policy decisions has three dimensions:
Intentions
Kant
Used means
Consequences of decisions Bentham
Realism Liberalism
State is primary actor State is primary actor
Anarchy defines the Anarchy defines the
international stage international stage
Primary interests Primary interests
− Survival / Security − Welfare
Emphasis on − Group-specific targets
− Distribution of power Emphasis on
− (Military) technology − Interdependence
→ Machtstaat − Networks
− (Intra-state structures)
Security dilemma: in an − Trade, institutions,
anarchic system state 1 has to democracy
arm himself to be more secure.
But by arming himself state 2 → Rechtsstaat
is less secure and starts to arm Focus on absolute gains
Focus on relative gains himself too so state 1 is again
less secure...
Source: Jackson, R., Sørensen, G., & Møller, J. (2019). Introduction to international relations: theories and approaches. Oxford University Press, USA.
A new Cold War? See text by Schadlow (former Trump advisor) on US foreign policy
(→ repetition of liberal vs. realist world view; China-US relations)
There is a tendency for IR realists to be somewhat pessimistic, and for IR liberals to be more optimistic, but this is not necessarily so.
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This is "liberalism"
Some quotes
Whenever there's a rising power, there is tension
and adjustments have to be made. The notion that
This is "realism" war is inevitable is a foolish one.
Robert Keohane
John J. Mearsheimer
The best way to make an enemy of China is to
treat it like one!
Joseph Nye
International Society/The English School posits that an international society exists when a group of states,
conscious or certain common interests an common values, form a society in the sense that they conceive
themselves to be bound by a common set of rules in their relations with on another**
Views state as a combination of Machtstaat (→Realism) and Rechtsstaat (→Idealism)
School of thoughts between liberalism and realism.
*Wendt, A. (1999). Social theory of international politics (Vol. 67). Cambridge University Press.
**Bull, H. (2012). The anarchical society: a study of order in world politics. Macmillan international Higher education.
***Robert, J., & Georg, S. (1999). Introduction to International Relations. Theories &Approaches.
social-
political-
economic
ansatz
Influential scholars: Kurt Lewin (Gestaltpsychologist and co-founder of experimental social psychology → “field
theory”), Neal Miller, Morton Deutsch (a student of Lewin), …
Prominent example is Morton Deutsch 1949’s theory of cooperation and competition: Similarities in spirit with
game theory, but different language
*Deutsch, M., Coleman, P. T., & Marcus, E. C. (Eds.). (2011). The handbook of conflict resolution: Theory and practice. John Wiley & Sons.
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Three basic social psychological processes:
Deutsch’s cooperation-competition theory*
Substitutability
1. Interdependence of goals of involved How a person’s actions can satisfy or block another
people person’s intentions → specialization/division of labor
1. Positive correlation: I sink if you sink, I Pathology: specialization can deteriorate group unity
swim if you swim
2. Negative correlation: I sink if you swim, I Attitudes (cathexis)
complements
swim if you sink Evaluative predisposition towards environment:
Most situations are mixed. Jointly tendency to act positively (negatively) towards the
influence
2. Action types of involved people beneficial (harmful)
Pathology: in-group favoritism
1. Effective actions (improve actor’s chances
of obtaining a goal)
How can you influence people to do or
2. Bungling actions (worsen actor’s chances Inducibility not to do what you want.
of obtaining a goal) Positive: do what other wants
Negative: obstruct what other wants
Remarks
Pathology: excessive conformity, impaired creativity,
Existence of conflict implies some form of interdependence
free riding
Interdependence can be asymmetric (I can depend on you
without you depending on me)
Bungling viewed negatively (positively) in positively (negatively)
interdependent relationship. Opposite for effective actions
*Sources:
Deutsch, M. (2011). Cooperation and competition. In Conflict, interdependence, and justice (pp. 23-40). Springer, New York, NY.
Johnson, D. W., & Johnson, R. T. (2011). Intellectual legacy: Cooperation and competition. In Conflict, interdependence, and justice (pp. 41-63). Springer, New York, NY.
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Conclusions/Predictions of Deutsch’s cooperation-competition theory
Competitive vs Cooperative
Competitive process Cooperative process
Communication impaired effective
Attitude obstructive friendly, trusting
Division of labor not possible strong coordination
Self-enforcing mechanisms repeated disagreement reduces confidence feeling of agreement with others, valuing
others, feeling valued
Needs of others little relevance recognition and respect
Power enhance own power willingness to enhance others’ power
Resolution approach view that resolution can only reached by conflicting interests are viewed as a mutual
imposing own will upon other problem to be solved in in collaborative
effort
can escalate to
Same idea in “Getting to Yes”
Autistic hostility: Breaking off contact and communication
Self-fulfilling prophecies: Act negatively upon false assumptions which become true after reaction of other
Unwitting commitments: Over-commitment to rigid positions (other is “evil”)
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What determines whether a conflict will take a constructive or destructive course?
Remarks
Cooperation induces and is induced by readiness to be helpful, openness in communication, trust, friendliness,…
Competition induces and is induced by coercion, threat, deception,…
This is in spirit connected to the “tit-for-tat strategy” in a “repeated prisoner’s dilemma” (cf. later → Game Theory)
*Lindner, E. G. (2006). Emotion and conflict: Why it is important to understand how emotions affect conflict and how conflict affects emotions. The handbook of conflict resolution, 2, 268-293.