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Questions

p60: what human nature? "Politics is rooted in


objective laws based on human nature"
p66: IR neoliberalism: What do we mean
exactly with the concept of anarchy? There
are no rules between nations?
p68: what is the difference between relative

2 Approaches to Conflict Analysis and absolute gains?


p76: Substitutability: whats the link to
specialization and division of labor?
2.1 Overview
2.2 International Relations Theories
2.3 (Social) Psychology
2.4 Game Theory
2.5 Behavioral Economics / Psychology
2.6 Summary

24.09.2020 | Philip Grech | 54


2.1 Overview
2.1.1 Conflict resolution as an interdisciplinary field
Management
studies
Computer
History
science

Mathematics
Jurisprudence
(Game theory)

Biology Political science

International
Anthropology
relations
Color code
This chapter: “anatomy of conflict”
Behavioral
Cultural studies
In examples and later chapters economics
(Social)
psychology
Minor role in this course
24.09.2020 | Philip Grech | 55
2.2 International relations (IR) theories
2.2.1 Overview
 Provide a conceptual framework with the goal to better understand processes in international
relations. There are many different such theories.

 Point of departure: there is anarchy in the


international system.
 We will focus here on the two major theories:
− Realism
− Liberalism* International relationship liberalism
not economical realism
 These theories aim at explaining international
politics through cause-and-effect connections.
 Natural scientists in the audience beware: this
is not as “clear-cut” as you are used to.
Same theory applied on similar case give different
outcome

*Important: this is IR liberalism; not identical to economic liberalism and can be very different from the colloquial usage of the word in US politics
24.09.2020 | Philip Grech | 56
2.2.2 IR realism
Early IR realist thinkers
Thucydides (~460-~400 BC)
 ‘Father of IR’, ‘first scientific historian’: objectivity & testable hypotheses instead of myths
and songs (controversial) comparison
From todays perspective not so objective in
to modern standards
 Writes “History of the Peloponnesian War” (unfinished)
− Peloponnesian League (leader: Sparta) vs. Delian league (leader: Athens), 431-404 BC
− Makes ample use of semi-fictitious conversations
 Name giver for the Thucydides trap (→ US-China relations): “when one great power
threatens to displace another, war is almost always the result.” (Graham T. Allison)
 Positions:
− Anarchy is the dominating principle in IR, hence security is the primary goal for individual states
− Power/capabilities to dominate and defend are very unequally distributed
→ Every state must acknowledge this and adapts its behavior accordingly
→ States have limited options in their foreign policy
− Morality plays a minor role: justice is not about equal treatment for all, but understanding one’s
standing in the international order. The state has a task (provide security) so moral plays a
smaller role
Chapter 5,
We both know that the decisions about justice are made in human discussions only when both
paragraph 89
sides are under equal compulsion, but when one side is stronger, it gets as much as it can, and
the weak must accept that. Justice only happens when both parties are equally strong which happens rarely
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Niccolò Machiavelli (1469–1527)
 Public official for diplomatic and military affairs in Renaissance Florence
 Writes “The Prince” (dedicated to Lorenzo di Piero de' Medici)
 Challenges view that politics should be moral/virtuous (cf. e.g. Plato, Aristoteles, Cicero, St. Augustine, St.
Thomas Aquinas etc.)
 Supreme task of a political leader is safety and survival of state: separation of politics and
ethics Safety and survival of state are most important goals
 Justifies immoral actions in politics, but admits that they are evil
 Lion (power) and a fox (deception) as symbols for guiding principles for foreign relations
Thomas Hobbes (1588-1683)
 English scientist and philosopher during Enlightenment period
 Translates “History of the Peloponnesian War”, writes “Leviathan” (favors strong monarchical
commonwealth)
 Humans are not moral beings, but have “a perpetual and restless desire of power after power,
that ceases only in death” (Leviathan XI 2)
→ Would lead to war of all against all
→ Hobbes proposes “social contract”: people in a society cede rights to sovereign authority in exchange
for protection
The state is the highest entity of sovereignty and hence states are the main actors in the international system.
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Case in point: the 30 years’ war and the “Westphalian System”
Common reading
Westphalia treaty established principles of
Catholic states Treaty of Westphalia  Independent and sovereign states
Austria, Spain, (1648)  Territorial integrity
Holy Roman Empire  Non-interference in domestic
affairs
Belligerents 1618–1648
 Start of age of classical European
diplomacy
Protestant states and
allies → State-centric system
Ratification of the Peace of Münster → Primacy of national interests
France, England, Dutch (Gerard ter Borch, Münster, 1648)
Republic, Sweden → Starting point for modern system of
great powers, balance of power.
France wanted to achieve an equilibrium of force especially against
catholic Spain (big superpower at the time)

This principle of sovereignty is still enshrined in the UN charter. It has been discussed in the context of humanitarian
intervention (see later).
Caveat: “common reading” has been challenged* for different reasons
 The Treaty was not the birth of the idea of sovereignty: this existed before
 The Treaty is not the birth of the idea of a nation state: this development only begins with the American & French
revolution and was not completed until after WWI
*See e.g. Krasner, S. D. Sovereignty: Organized Hypocrisy, Princeton: Princeton University Press (1999) 24.09.2020 | Philip Grech | 59
Modern formulations

20th century realism is a reaction to liberalism (cf. below). Morgenthau’s six principles of classical IR realism
(paraphrased):*

1. Politics is rooted in objective laws based on human nature


2. The main concept is that of “interest defined in terms of power”
3. This concept of “national interest” is universal, but the specific kind of
interest can be context dependent
4. Moral principles have value but cannot perfectly be applied to the actions
of states
5. Truth vs. opinion: the moral aspirations of a particular nation should not be
identified with the moral laws that govern the universe
6. Politics is an “autonomous sphere of action” (other spheres are economics,
morals, …) Hans Morgenthau (1904-1980)
Vocal opponent of Vietnam war and
Iraq invasion

*Politics among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace, first edition in 1948

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Realism after the integration of social sciences (after 1950)*

 Strategic realism (Schelling)


− Focus on analytical tools and strategic analysis (→ game theory) Thomas Schelling
− Free from moral choice considerations (1921-2016),
Nobel Prize in
Economics 2005
 Neorealism/structural realism (Waltz*/Mearsheimer**) Neorealism doesn't think that the
roots of the laws in IR are based
− No account of human nature on human nature. Difference to
classical IR realism.
− Power is merely a useful tool. Main goal is security. Actions are not driven by human
nature anymore but by structural
− Ignoring ethics of statecraft components
− Focus less on state leaders and more on external structures in which leaders Kenneth Waltz
find themselves → more deterministic (1924-2013)
− Waltz’s version (“defensive neorealism”) posits that anarchy pushes states
towards moderation and balance of power
− Mearsheimer’s version (“offensive realism”**): Power-maximizing and self-
promoting motivations dominate the international system: states attempt to
become (regional) hegemons. Every state wants to "dominate the world" but not every state is capable of.
(hegemony = political, economic and military predominance or control of John J. Mearsheimer
(*1947)
one state over others)
*Waltz, K. N. (2010). Theory of international politics. Waveland Press.
**Mearsheimer, J. 24.09.2020 | Philip Grech | 61
J. (2001). The tragedy of great power politics. WW Norton & Company.
2.2.3 IR liberalism
Early IR liberal thinkers
John Locke (1632 – 1704):
 Writes “Two Treaties”
 Like Hobbes develops a social contract theory, however with more positive view of
human nature and with more emphasis on legitimation of government by the
governed: rule of law and rechtsstaat are key
 Influential for the formulation of the American Declaration of Independence (1776)

Immanuel Kant (1724 – 1804)


 Moral philosophy: complicated notion of freedom, results in categorical imperative;
everybody has fundamental duties and rights. Kant takes this also to the political
realm
 Writes “Perpetual peace: a philosophical sketch” (1795)
 “Highest political good” is the eradication of war → proposes “League of Peace”
− “The Civil Constitution in every Sate shall be Republican”
− “The Right of Nations shall be founded on a Federation of Free States”
− “The Rights of men as Citizens of the world in a ‘cosmo-political’ system, shall be restricted to
conditions of universal hospitality”

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Kant’s six prerequisites for perpetual peace in context

Kant’s condition Example


1 No war-incentivizing treaties Treaty of Versailles, 1919 (Cautionary example!)
Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, 1969, e.g. Art 52: A
treaty is void if its conclusion has been procured by the threat or
use of force in violation of the principles of international law
embodied in the Charter of the United Nations.

2 No dominion over independent states UN Charter, Art. 1(2): To develop friendly relations among nations
(e.g. by inheritance, exchange, purchase, or based on respect for the principle of equal rights and self-
donation) determination of peoples, and to take other appropriate
measures to strengthen universal peace;

3 Abolishment of standing armies UN General Assembly Special Sessions on Disarmament

Recommended blog at ETHZ: https://isnblog.ethz.ch/international-relations/kant-and-international-law

24.09.2020 | Philip Grech | 63


Kant’s condition (cont.) Example
4 No national debts Perhaps the least present of Kant’s conditions, but we
with a view to the external friction of states. mention the Bretton Woods institutions (IMF, World Bank)

5 No forceful interference UN Charter Art. 2(4): All Members shall refrain in their
with the constitution or government of another international relations from the threat or use of force against
state the territorial integrity or political independence of any state,
or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the
United Nations.

6 During war, no permission for acts of hostility Geneva Conventions


which would make mutual confidence in the
subsequent peace impossible
e.g. the employment of assassins, poisoners,
breach of capitulation, and incitement to treason
in the opposing state.

24.09.2020 | Philip Grech | 64


Jeremy Bentham (1748 – 1832):
 Founder of utilitarianism (at odds with Kant!). Fundamental
axiom: “greatest happiness of the greatest number [is] the
measure of right and wrong”
→ Aggregate moral principle
 Advocates individual and economic freedoms, the
separation of church and state, freedom of expression, equal
rights for women, the right to divorce, and (in an
unpublished essay) the decriminalizing of homosexual acts.
Calls for abolition of slavery, capital and physical punishment
 Coins term “international law”: it is rational for constitutional
states to adhere to a framework of international rules

24.09.2020 | Philip Grech | 65


Modern formulations Names given by realists

IR Utopian liberalism / liberal idealism


 Rejects “balance of power and alliance system” Woodrow Wilson
(1856-1924),
 Wilson: 28th US President
Two major points (→ Kant): Nobel Peace Prize
1. Promote liberal democratic values and self-determination 1919
2. Create an international organization guided by common rules of international law → League of Nations; Kellogg-Briand Pact
1928 differentiate with neoliberalism in the economy

IR Neoliberalism (=neoliberal institutionalism) (e.g. Robert Keohane, Joseph Nye; after 1945)
 Rejects idealism; respects self-interest emphasize on the importance of institutions

 Anarchy still the dominating principle in IR, but institutions can help to mitigate this effect But: Neoliberalism also
 Emphasizes long-term absolute gains/welfare instead of short-term relative gains recognizes that
democracies tend to go to
 costs of war are too high War is to costly, we have to do sth against it
war with non-democracies
 Complex interdependence: society, NGO, multinational corporations, etc.
 Integrates social sciences
Empirical observation after WW II that democratic countries do not go to war against each other Democratic Peace
Limitations: Observation: democracies tends to not go to war one against each other
Theory (dyadic version)
1. Precise definition of “democracy”, “war” potentially difficult (cf. Kantian Liberal Peace)
2. Exceptions exist: Spanish-American war; Fashoda incident (F and UK); both 1898

Reading suggestion: Francis Fukuyama, “The end of history?”, 1989 24.09.2020 | Philip Grech | 66
According to Nye: Moral of foreign policy decisions has three dimensions:

 Intentions
Kant
 Used means
 Consequences of decisions Bentham

3-dimensional view on moral.


What are the intentions, the means (torture...) and the
consequences of our action.

Oxford University Press 2020

24.09.2020 | Philip Grech | 67


Realism: is more about survival and
security, ,military technology, competitions
Wrap up: realism vs. liberalism (Machtsstaat)
more focused on relative gains
Liberalism: wellfare, dependance,
institutions (Rechtsstaat)
more focused on absolut gains

Realism Liberalism
 State is primary actor  State is primary actor
 Anarchy defines the  Anarchy defines the
international stage international stage
 Primary interests  Primary interests
− Survival / Security − Welfare
 Emphasis on − Group-specific targets
− Distribution of power  Emphasis on
− (Military) technology − Interdependence
→ Machtstaat − Networks
− (Intra-state structures)
Security dilemma: in an − Trade, institutions,
anarchic system state 1 has to democracy
arm himself to be more secure.
But by arming himself state 2 → Rechtsstaat
is less secure and starts to arm  Focus on absolute gains
 Focus on relative gains himself too so state 1 is again
less secure...
Source: Jackson, R., Sørensen, G., & Møller, J. (2019). Introduction to international relations: theories and approaches. Oxford University Press, USA.

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Case in point: US-China relations

The past years have seen a worsening of US-China relations in several


domains:
 Territorial disputes in the South China Sea
 Coronavirus and anti-Chinese Racism (“Wuhan Virus”, “Kung Flu”)
 Various cyberattacks
 Trade war
US accuses China of currency manipulation ( trade deficit), unfair market
access conditions: imposition of tariffs as punishment  trade war
 Intellectual property theft / espionage ( blacklisting Huawei,
TikTok)
 Suppression of democratic freedoms in Hong Kong
 Fight for economic influence
− China’s “Belt and Road Initiative” (OBOR)
− US counter-initiative: “Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy” (FOIP)
 …

A new Cold War? See text by Schadlow (former Trump advisor) on US foreign policy
(→ repetition of liberal vs. realist world view; China-US relations)

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Realist views on conflict Liberal views on conflict
 International system is dominated by anarchy  International system is dominated by anarchy (same!)
 China’s military and economic power on the rise?  Source of trade dispute is concern for long-term security
− Classical realism: human nature is source and prosperity: striving not only for military dominance
− Neo-/structural realism: external structures are  China and US are strongly intertwined (complex
source interdependence) and they know it: e.g. phase 1 trade
− Defensive version: balance of power will emerge – deal: cutting tariffs to avoid escalation → cost of (trade)
So many China has 14 neighbors (Russia, India, Pakistan, North war are too high
neighbours. Can Korea even with nuclear weapons). But security  Democratic peace
lead to security dilemma (cf. later) can still be heavy - e.g. testing of
dilemma − Even if China were to make democratic changes: this might
power e.g. in the South China Sea, espionage, …
make relations with the US more unstable in the short run
− Offensive version: fight for hegemony (Thucydides
− Dark side of democratic peace: democracies are more hostile
trap), risk of war ↑
towards autocratic regimes (interventionalism).
 Security is primary concern: closeness of Chinese − US might be protective of democracies that are threatened by
tech firms to Chinese state is threat to US China
 Brinkmanship: trade war shows escalation dynamics  Membership in several international institutions as a
as in arms race (strategic realism) forum for dialogue: G20, WTO, UN,…
 Moral plays minor role  Moral considerations play bigger role: criticism of
treatment of Uyghurs/Tibetans etc.

There is a tendency for IR realists to be somewhat pessimistic, and for IR liberals to be more optimistic, but this is not necessarily so.
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This is "liberalism"

Some quotes
Whenever there's a rising power, there is tension
and adjustments have to be made. The notion that
This is "realism" war is inevitable is a foolish one.
Robert Keohane

Whether China is democratic and deeply enmeshed in the


global economy or autocratic and autarkic will have little I think the important point is to realize that China
effect on its behaviour, because democracies care about does not present an existential threat to the US like
security as much as non-democracies do, and hegemony is Hitler did or like Stalin did. China is not trying to
the best way for any state to guarantee its own survival.” really destroy or change the American system. And
the US doesn't present an existential threat to
China. We're not trying to destroy China or Chinese
China, like all previous potential hegemons, [will] be strongly system. So I think in the long run, if we can manage
inclined to become a real hegemon." our problems, there need not be any conflict.

John J. Mearsheimer
The best way to make an enemy of China is to
treat it like one!

Joseph Nye

Mearsheimer vs. Nye on the Rise of China on vimeo.


24.09.2020 | Philip Grech | 71
2.2.4 Other IR theories
 IR Constructivism does not take interests as given. It is a social theory based on the ideas that
1. Structures of human association are determined primarily by shared ideas rather than material forces
2. Identities and interests of purposive actors are constructed by these shared ideas rather than given by nature*

 International Society/The English School posits that an international society exists when a group of states,
conscious or certain common interests an common values, form a society in the sense that they conceive
themselves to be bound by a common set of rules in their relations with on another**
Views state as a combination of Machtstaat (→Realism) and Rechtsstaat (→Idealism)
School of thoughts between liberalism and realism.

 International Political Economy shifts attention to material interest


− Mercantilism: the economy as a tool of politics, economic competition between states is a zero-sum game, one state’s loss is
another states gain
− Economic Liberalism: the economy is autonomous, economic competition is a positive-sum game (see later)
− IR Marxism: the economy is the decisive factor, prone to inequality and exploration, social class conflict is the driving force***
School of thoughts more focused on economy
 …

*Wendt, A. (1999). Social theory of international politics (Vol. 67). Cambridge University Press.
**Bull, H. (2012). The anarchical society: a study of order in world politics. Macmillan international Higher education.
***Robert, J., & Georg, S. (1999). Introduction to International Relations. Theories &Approaches.

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2.3 (Social) psychology
2.3.1 Brief history

Charles Darwin (1809-1882)


 “The competitive struggle for existence”
 “Survival of the fittest”
 “All nature is at war, one organism with another, or with external nature. Seeing the contented face of
nature, this may at first be well doubted; but reflection will inevitably prove it is too true.”
 Vulgarized in Social Darwinism

Karl Marx (1818-1883)


 “The whole society breaks up more and more into two great hostile camps, two great, directly
antagonistic classes: bourgeoisie and proletariat.”
 “The proletarians have nothing to lose but their chains. They have a world to win. Working men of all
countries, unite.”

Sigmund Freud (1856-1939)


 Constant struggle between the biologically rooted infantile id and the socially determined, internalized
parental surrogate, the superego

24.09.2020 | Philip Grech | 73


Letter exchange in 1932

Ich bin nicht nur Pazifist, ich


bin militanter Pazifist.

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2.3.2 Social psychological aspects*

More focused on the


 Less emphasis on instinctive, evolutionary processes social aspect
 Competing theories
Different competing theories
psychological
ansatz
Personal beliefs, perceptions, Environment (social, economic,
values etc. political)

social-
political-
economic
ansatz

 Influential scholars: Kurt Lewin (Gestaltpsychologist and co-founder of experimental social psychology → “field
theory”), Neal Miller, Morton Deutsch (a student of Lewin), …
 Prominent example is Morton Deutsch 1949’s theory of cooperation and competition: Similarities in spirit with
game theory, but different language

*Deutsch, M., Coleman, P. T., & Marcus, E. C. (Eds.). (2011). The handbook of conflict resolution: Theory and practice. John Wiley & Sons.
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Three basic social psychological processes:
Deutsch’s cooperation-competition theory*
Substitutability
1. Interdependence of goals of involved How a person’s actions can satisfy or block another
people person’s intentions → specialization/division of labor
1. Positive correlation: I sink if you sink, I Pathology: specialization can deteriorate group unity
swim if you swim
2. Negative correlation: I sink if you swim, I Attitudes (cathexis)

complements
swim if you sink Evaluative predisposition towards environment:
Most situations are mixed. Jointly tendency to act positively (negatively) towards the
influence
2. Action types of involved people beneficial (harmful)
Pathology: in-group favoritism
1. Effective actions (improve actor’s chances
of obtaining a goal)
How can you influence people to do or
2. Bungling actions (worsen actor’s chances Inducibility not to do what you want.
of obtaining a goal) Positive: do what other wants
Negative: obstruct what other wants
Remarks
Pathology: excessive conformity, impaired creativity,
 Existence of conflict implies some form of interdependence
free riding
 Interdependence can be asymmetric (I can depend on you
without you depending on me)
 Bungling viewed negatively (positively) in positively (negatively)
interdependent relationship. Opposite for effective actions
*Sources:
Deutsch, M. (2011). Cooperation and competition. In Conflict, interdependence, and justice (pp. 23-40). Springer, New York, NY.
Johnson, D. W., & Johnson, R. T. (2011). Intellectual legacy: Cooperation and competition. In Conflict, interdependence, and justice (pp. 41-63). Springer, New York, NY.
24.09.2020 | Philip Grech | 76
Conclusions/Predictions of Deutsch’s cooperation-competition theory

Competitive vs Cooperative
Competitive process Cooperative process
Communication impaired effective
Attitude obstructive friendly, trusting
Division of labor not possible strong coordination
Self-enforcing mechanisms repeated disagreement reduces confidence feeling of agreement with others, valuing
others, feeling valued
Needs of others little relevance recognition and respect
Power enhance own power willingness to enhance others’ power
Resolution approach view that resolution can only reached by conflicting interests are viewed as a mutual
imposing own will upon other problem to be solved in in collaborative
effort
can escalate to
Same idea in “Getting to Yes”
Autistic hostility: Breaking off contact and communication
Self-fulfilling prophecies: Act negatively upon false assumptions which become true after reaction of other
Unwitting commitments: Over-commitment to rigid positions (other is “evil”)
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What determines whether a conflict will take a constructive or destructive course?

Deutsch’s Crude Law of Social Relations: elicit: hervorrufen

1. Characteristic processes elicited by a certain type of relationship Relationship Effect


also tend to elicit that type of social relationship
2. A typical effect of a social relationship tends to induce the other
typical effects of that relationship Positive Effect 1 Positive Effect 1 Positive Effect 1

“what goes around, comes around.”

Remarks
 Cooperation induces and is induced by readiness to be helpful, openness in communication, trust, friendliness,…
 Competition induces and is induced by coercion, threat, deception,…
 This is in spirit connected to the “tit-for-tat strategy” in a “repeated prisoner’s dilemma” (cf. later → Game Theory)

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2.3.3 Emotional aspects*

Karl Menninger (1893 – 1990), American psychiatrist:


The voice of intelligence is drowned out by the roar of fear. It is ignored by the voice of
desire. It is contradicted by the voice of shame. It is biased by hate and extinguished by
anger. Most of all, it is silences by ignorance.

Siddharta Gautama (563 (?) BC – 483 BC), founder of Buddhism:


Victory breeds hatred. The defeated live in pain. Happily the peaceful live, giving up victory
and defeat.

Mohandas Gandhi (1869 – 1948), Indian anti-colonial nationalist:


It has always been a mystery to me how men can feel themselves honored by the humiliation
of their fellow beings.

*Lindner, E. G. (2006). Emotion and conflict: Why it is important to understand how emotions affect conflict and how conflict affects emotions. The handbook of conflict resolution, 2, 268-293.

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Fear
 Basic emotion
 “Cultivating” fear of future humiliation can lead to catastrophic “solutions” (Holocaust, Rwanda)
 Threats in negotiations can lead to fear and thus be counterproductive
never forget emotional side. Fear can
induce reactions that were not anticipated
Anger/Hatred and that we would consider as irrational

 Fundamental attribution error*: tendency to underestimate situational factors and overestimate


dispositional factors in controlling behavior Attributionsfehler: Er bezeichnet die
− May lead to overestimation of other’s hostility and own benignity Neigung, den Einfluss dispositionaler
Faktoren, wie
 If properly channeled, my lead to constructive conflict Persönlichkeitseigenschaften,
Einstellungen und Meinungen, auf das
Verhalten anderer systematisch zu
Humiliation überschätzen und äußere Faktoren
(situative Einflüsse) zu unterschätzen.
 More complex emotion In other words, people have a cognitive
 “Clashes of civilizations are not the problem, clashes of humiliation are.”** bias to assume that a person's actions
depend on what "kind" of person that
person is rather than on the social and
environmental forces that influence the
person.
*Ross, L. (1977). The intuitive psychologist and his shortcomings: Distortions in the attribution process. In Advances in experimental social psychology (Vol. 10, pp. 173-220). Academic Press.
**Lindner, E. (2006). Making enemies: Humiliation and international conflict. Praeger Security International.
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2.3.4 Cognitive aspects

 A cognitive bias is a systematic deviation from strict rationality


 We will postpone the discussion of the most conflict-relevant biases. First, we have to learn what strict
rationality (→ game theory) means.

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