Pol

it
ico

Wi
llTai
wanbet
henextUkr
aine?
ForBeij
ing,
Russia’
sdi
ff
icul
twarof
fer
sa
caut
ionarytal
e.
IfXiJinpingwast hi
nkingofmaki ngamoveonTai wan,
afterRussia’
sinvasionofUkr aine,he’
lll
ikelybethi
nking
again.FortheChinesepr esident,thewari nEuropeis
playingoutli
keacaut ionarytale.Theuseofbr utal
mi l
it
aryforceinthe21stcent ury,hewon’ thavefai
ledto
notice,comeswi thconsiderablerisk.

Ukraini
anshavedemonst r
atedthatpeoplef ighthar d
whent heirbacksar eagai nstawall,andthesamewoul d
l
ikelyholdtruefort heTai wanese,whoval uet hei
r
democr acyandi ndependencef r
om t hei
rlargernei ghbor
j
ustasmuch—i fnotmor e—t hanUkr ai
nians.Tai wan’s
mili
tarymayber ightlycri
tici
zedforitspoorlycoor dinated
for
ces, anditsgover nmenthasbeenhesi tantt oinvestin
i
tsowndef ense,butaTai wanesepeopl euni tedbya
commont hreatcoul dfightalotharderthan
anti
cipated.Tr ue, Chi na’sPeopl e’sLiber ationAr my( PLA)
wouldbemor emot ivatedthant heRussi anf orces—
nati
onalr eunificat i
oni samant rabur ieddeepi nitscore
—butanamphi bi ousi nvasionacr oss100mi lesofsea
wouldalsobemuchhar dert opullof fthanRussi a’
s
curr
entlandi nvasi on.Andwhi letheUni tedSt ateshas
rej
ecteda“ no-flyzone”overUkr aine, asitwoul dr i
sk
nuclearconf ront ation, Amer icanpl anesf l
yingfrom U.S.
air
craftcarriersof ftheeast erncoastofTai wancoul d
easil
ycreat eaf orm of“ no-sailzone”bet weenFuj i
anand
Taiwan.

TheRussi aninvasionhasal sodemonst r

atedhow
apparent lymodestl eaderscanr i
set otheoccasionand
ral
lyanout gunnedsoci etyint
oresistinganinvasion.
UkrainianPr esi
dentVol odymy rZelenskyyhasemer ged
asanunl ikel
yher o.Whyexpectanyl essfrom Tai
wanese
PresidentTsaiI ng-wen, whosetoughst anceagainst
Chinaal readyear nsherst r
ongpraise?Onecaneasi ly
envisiont hesuppor tshewoul dgarneraroundt hewor l
d
whenf acingoffagai nstamachoPLAandChi nese
Communi stPartyleadership.

U.
S.Pr
esi
dentJoeBi
den,
too,
woul
dhavel
it
tl
etr
oubl
e
mobi l
izinghisall
iesandpar t
nerstosupportAmer i
ca’
s
defenseofTai wan, l
eadingt oaverydiff
erentdynamic
thantheonecur r
entlyplayingoutinEasternEurope.
Thesewoul di ncl
udet heUni t
edKingdom, Japan,Sout
h
Korea, Austr
aliaandper hapsevenI ndi
a—t heU.S.’
s
partnerintheQuadr i
lateralSecuri
tyDial
ogue.

TheWest ’
ssol i
dar it
ydur i
ngt heUkr ai
necrisissof arwill
notbewast edonXiei ther.TheEur opeanUni onisChi na’s
maj ortr
adingpar t
ner.Runni ngafoulofit,aswel last he
U.S.andJapan, woul dbedanger ousforal eaderwho
knowshemustr aiseli
vingst andardsathome.Chi na’s
deepi nt
egrationi ntothegl obaleconomyandt he
l
ever ageofBei j
ing’s$1, 068bi l
li
onintreasurybonds
woul dmakeWest ernsanct ionsmor epainfulto
i
mpl ement ,butthesecoul dnotber ul
edout ,pr
ecedi ng,or
after,aTaiwani nvasion.

WithPutinwreaki
nghavoci nUkraine,anattackon
Taiwannowwoul dri
skappear i
ngcoor di
natedwith
Moscow.Suchanat tackwouldqui cklybeseenasan
eff
ortbytheSino-
Russianauthorit
arianalli
anceto
underminedemocrati
cf or
ces,rol
li
ngbacky earsof
Beij
ing’
ssoftpowereffort
s,suchast heBel tandRoad
I
nit
iat
ive—China’
smassi
vegl
obalt
ranspor
tand
i
nfr
astruct
urepr
oject

Mor eover, atthe20t hPar tyCongr essoft heChi nese

Communi stPar t
yl atethisyear,Xiwi llbeaski ngt heparty
l
eader shipt oent r
usthi m wit hsupremecont r
olf orat
l
eastanot herf i
vey ears.Already,hiswi ll
ingnesst owed
Chinat oPut inbydecl ari
ngSi no-Russi anr elati
onsa
“fr
iendshipwi t
houtl imits”mayhavel edsomet oquestion
hisleadershi p.Af ullscaleinvasionofTai wanwoul d
furtherhighlightther isksofempower inganunf etter
ed
dictator
.Thesi tuationi sunlikel
yt ogetbet t
erf orXiafter
thewar ,whent heU. S.gover nment ,heedi ngitsown
l
essonsf rom Ukr aine, wil
lli
kelyreinfor ceTai wanese
defenses, strengtheni tscommi tmentt odef end
democr aci esandchal lenget heexpansi onof
“authori
tar i
anbul li
es.”

ButifPutin’sinvasi onofUkr aineisawar ni

ngtoXi,
whetherhewi llheedi tremainst obeseen.Ifhedoes,
however ,
chooset omi michisRussi ancounter
part’
s
attemptatempi rer ebuil
dingthroughhi sownwarof
reunif
icat
ionagai nstTai wan,hewi l
lli
kelydi
scoverthat
evenabsol utedi ctatorsarelimitedi
nwhatt heycan
accompl
ish.