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Iron Ore DR Pellets DRI Furnace Steel

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Steel Scrap

4th World DRI & Pellet

Congress
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Iron Ore DR Pellets DRI Furnace Steel

Major Iron Ore Benchmarks

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($/t) CFR Qingdao 62% Fines
66% Concentrate
65% Pellet Steel Scrap
120

100

80

60

40

4th World DRI & Pellet

20
Congress
0
Jan 15

Feb 15

Mar 15

Apr 15

May 15

Jun 15

Jul 15

Aug 15

Sep 15

Oct 15

Nov 15

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Source: Metal Bulletin Research
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Iron Ore DR Pellets DRI Furnace Steel

Implied Pellet Premium

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($/t)
Steel Scrap
30

25

20

15

4th World DRI & Pellet

10

Congress
5

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Jan 14

Apr 14

Jul 14

Oct 14

Jan 15

Apr 15

Jul 15

Oct 15

Source: Metal Bulletin Research

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Iron Ore DR Pellets DRI Furnace Steel

Typical DRI Cost in MENA region

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Figure 1 - source Presentation from Joel Morales, Tenova Hyl made at 19th Middle
East Iron and Steel Conference
Steel Scrap
Maint, labor
& others

4%
Power, O2
& other 5%
consumables 82% Iron Ore

9%
4th World DRI & Pellet
Congress
NG

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Iron Ore DR Pellets DRI Furnace Steel

UAE Scrap Market Projection (Mt)

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Scrap availability Local requirements
Steel Scrap
4.0

3.0

2.0

4th World DRI & Pellet

1.0

Congress
0.0

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2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Source: ES Research
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Iron Ore DR Pellets DRI Furnace Steel

Iron Unit Ratio: Iron Ore/Scrap

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Iron Ore vs. Scrap Price Forecast ($/t)
4.0 700
Ratio Scrap Steel Scrap
Average Iron Ore
3.5 600

3.0
500

2.5
400

2.0
300

4th World DRI & Pellet

1.5

200

Congress
1.0

100
0.5

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0.0
0
2010 Q1
2011 Q1
2012 Q1
2013 Q1
2014 Q1
2015 Q1
2016 Q1
2017
2018
2019
2020
Jan 13
Apr 13
Jul 13
Oct 13
Jan 14
Apr 14
Jul 14
Oct 14
Jan 15
Apr 15
Jul 15
Oct 15

Source: Metal Bulletin Research Source: Metal Bulletin Research

 Electric Arc Molten
Iron Ore DR Pellets DRI Furnace Steel

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Steel Scrap

GCC Crude Steel Output Other Middle Eastern*

(000 tonnes) Crude Steel Output (000 tonnes)
25,000 60,000

50,000
20,000

4th World DRI & Pellet

40,000
15,000
30,000

Congress
10,000
20,000

5,000
10,000

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0 0 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 (e)

2016 (f)

2017 (f)

2018 (f)

2019 (f)

2020 (f)
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 (e)

2016 (f)

2017 (f)

2018 (f)

2019 (f)

2020 (f)

Source: Metal Bulletin Research Source: Metal Bulletin Research *Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Turkey, Yemen