A Comparative Analysis of The Economic Growth of China and India

You might also like

Download as pdf or txt
Download as pdf or txt
You are on page 1of 32

Social Science Review [The Dhaka University Studies, Part-D], Vol. 30, No.

2, December 2013

A Comparative Analysis of the Economic Growth of China and India

Rezuanul Hasan Rana1

Suborna Barua2

ABSTRACT
Indian and Chinese economies are growing rapidly among the Asian countries due to economic reforms.
The prime objective of this study was to compare and analyze the economic status (in terms of economic
growth, FDI inflows, export and import, remittance, labor force, tax and tariff) of both the countries. This
comparative study was conducted using a descriptive method from the secondary sources of data of
UNCTAD Stat and Morgan Stanley Research from the period of 1980 to 2009. The study showed that
China put greater focus towards infrastructure development, removing tariff and non tariff barriers,
development of skilled labors, cost effectiveness and speedy decision making ability. On the other hand
India’s focal point was the service sector like IT-sector. The study also indicated that India had better
financial, political and legal practices as compared to China.

Keywords: India, China, Reform, FDI, GDP

JEL Classification: E60, E61, O10, O11, O2, O4

1
Lecturer, Department of Economics, Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, American International University-
Bangladesh (AIUB), Bangladesh. e-mail: rezwanul_54@yahoo.com, phone: + 88-01912131579
2
Lecturer, Department of International Business, University of Dhaka, Dhaka, Bangladesh. e-mail:
subornobarua@gmail.com ; phone: + 88-01911448162

Electroniccopy
Electronic copyavailable
available at:
at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2893658
https://ssrn.com/abstract=2893658
Social Science Review [The Dhaka University Studies, Part-D], Vol. 30, No. 2, December 2013

I. INTORDUCTION

1.1 Overview of the Economic Status of India and China

India and China are the home of world’s 40% of the population and their total output is almost

20% of the global economy on the basis of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), which was only 10%

in the year 1990 (Ahya and Gupta, 2010). They are increasingly becoming the economic giants

of the world. These two countries has a lot of things in common such as their size, their

enormous supply of cheap labor and both are transitioning from being a heavily state controlled

and regulated economies to somewhere close to open market economy. Both the countries have

made significant economic reforms to expedite the economic growth. The failure of the then

economic policies triggered the internal and external reforms in the late nineteen seventy’s. Since

the reform China’s economy has seen some amazing growth rates, scoring more then 9.4% per

annum Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the last 25 years (Figure 1). On the other hand

India commenced its restructuring of economic policy in the early 1990’s. And since the reform

took place its average annual GDP growth rate from then is 7% or 8% (Figure 1). China’s higher

rate of savings has contributed to the domestic investment of 35%-40% of its GDP and this rate

is which is almost double of that of India (Ahya and Gupta, 2010).

Economic reforms at and the fast rate of globalization helped the two countries to achieve high

economic growth in the past two decades. China’s fast track growth model was developed by the

improvement of human capital, high rate of domestic savings, rising Foreign Direct Investment

(FDI) and positive growth of demography. On the other hand, India developed a well organized

institutional framework including establishing democracy, rile of law, transparency of the

Electroniccopy
Electronic copyavailable
available at:
at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2893658
https://ssrn.com/abstract=2893658
Social Science Review [The Dhaka University Studies, Part-D], Vol. 30, No. 2, December 2013

financial system, protection of property, relaxation of restrictions on the foreign investment. If

similar patterns of growth are to be seen in the next 25 years, China and India will be part of the

major industrialized countries of the world and thus would be examples for the other least

developed countries of the world.

The study will analyze and compare various reforms, development, remittance inflow and

changes in attitude that both these countries pursued to successfully get on to the track of

economic progress.

1.2 Financial Sector of India and China

Another key asset in strong financial growth is a strong financial system. A sound financial

system can encourage saving and capital investment. In the Chinese banking system the biggest

players are the four sate-owned banks (Table 1). Chinese banks are more open to credit risk

because of a faulty credit appraisal system. They have huge number of nonperforming credit due

to low asset quality. Government bureaucrats and politicians have a strong influence on the state

owned banks (Ahya and Xie, 2004). Their influence often adversely affects the credit risk

assessment of the banks. Until 2007 Chain’s banks had to face very low competition. Newly

introduced foreign banks in 2007 did bring some challenges like product innovation, risk based

capital pricing and a market oriented focus for the Chinese banks. Compared to China, India’s

banking system is much more organized and follows financial practices of the international

market (Ahya and Xie, 2004). The private and foreign banks working in India established an IT

based solution for a centralized risk assessment system. Thus the credit appraisal system in India

is more solid than in China.

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2893658


Social Science Review [The Dhaka University Studies, Part-D], Vol. 30, No. 2, December 2013

1.3 Problem Statement

China and India are the two Asian giants who are gradually becoming major super powers of

world economy. The successes stories of both the countries are amazing considering the fact that

their economic condition even 30 years ago was pitiable. They carried out noticeable structural

and economic reforms to fast pace their growth. There are some astonishing similarities among

the two countries. They are large countries by geographical measure and the two most populous

countries in the world with almost 2.5 billion people (UCTAD Stat 2010). Both the countries

possess strong socialist view. They still have lots of government controls, restrictions, rules and

regulation for the outsiders to invest and operate business in various sectors of their economy.

Corruption, income inequality and political influence are familiar terms for both the economies.

The tale of their economic growth is even more interesting. China started its economic reforms

during 1980’s and with in 30 years it has established it self as the second biggest economy of the

world recently. In the last 10 years they have witnessed average GDP growth of 10% per year

(Figure 1). India started its economic reform almost a decade after China and quickly

concentrated on the service and knowledge based industry. Until the year 2004 their GDP growth

propelled by the service industry saw the growth rate around 6.5% or more for the last 15 years

(Ahya and Xie, 2004). Their astounding economic growth and absolute radical approaches for

the economic development is second to none. It has prompted many economists to study the

growth model they pursued and to comment on the sustainability of the two economies. Why

Chinese economy is so far ahead of India at the moment? Is it because, they started the economic

reforms early or their less restriction on FDI. Or is it because of their centralized decision

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2893658


Social Science Review [The Dhaka University Studies, Part-D], Vol. 30, No. 2, December 2013

making process which is quick and effective. Should China focus more on the IT sector or

should India open up more, to welcome high volume of FDI? Should India spend more for their

infrastructure development or how much China needs to restructure its faulty financial system?

Researchers are trying to find the answers. This study will compare some of the key factors of

economic growth of China and India and answer the questions above. The paper will give us an

overview of the level of infrastructure development, tax system, FDI, education, remittance,

institutional frame work, financial and political system of the two countries. The study also

focused on the different dimensions to the economic approach they have taken.

1.4 Objectives of the Study

(i) To compare the economic growth model of the two countries.

(ii) To analyze the trade situation focusing the various economic factors of the two countries.

(iii) To compare and analyze the financial and economic reforms of the two countries.

II. LITERATURE REVIEW

In a study of competitiveness between China and India’s economic transformation it has been

establish that there are significant differences in the structural transformation and economic

development of India and China. China’s growth almost touched the double digit while India’s

growth was around 6% annually during 1990 to 2006 (Figure 1). This high growth rate helped

china to double its GDP in seven years (Przemyslaw and Kowalski, 2008). A study conducted by

Ahya and Xie (2004) predicted that over the next three to four years China and India will

continue to be highly attractive destinations in the global business environment. China is

establishing itself as the global manufacturing leader and India the service workshop to the

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2893658


Social Science Review [The Dhaka University Studies, Part-D], Vol. 30, No. 2, December 2013

world. Holz, 2006 commented that Chinese economy is growing so rapidly that by the end of

2008 China will be the 4th largest economy of the world shy of only USA, Japan and Germany.

This prediction has been proved right by fast pace economic growth of China which is only

second to USA in 2010. According to the research conducted by Tong (2008) foreign direct

investments, especially those from neighboring economies, played and important role China’s

trade expansion and subsequent structural upgrading.

In their follow up report of the competitiveness of China and India, Ahya and Gupta, (2010)

showed that massive number of working age population will play an important role in making

these two countries globally competitive. Multinational companies have already planned them to

their global business plan and these countries are predicted to be the drivers of global

productivity. Ahya and Gupta, (2010) forecasted that, by 2020 china’s GDP will surplus US

GDP only if China can continuously produce low cost skilled labor and carry out some key

structural reforms, for example the financial sector. They expect China and India to become two

dominant economic powers in the next 20 years. Gupta and Raju (2006) carried out a study on

the pattern of economic growth of India and China. Their study shows that while China had 10%

economic growth for the last 15 years India averaged round 6% a year. They also commented

that like many other researchers that the IT industry was the main driving force of Indian growth.

India also has a competitive advantage over China with its larger pool of English speaking labor

force. Thus a large number of literatures have discussed the growth of these two countries.

Researches have been done on the effect of the enormous FDI inflow in the real growth of GDP

in China and India. Again, the main factor responsible for the FDI flow is the change of trade

related policy of these two countries through relative openness of the economy.

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2893658


Social Science Review [The Dhaka University Studies, Part-D], Vol. 30, No. 2, December 2013

Basu (2007) quoted from Klein (2004), analyzed political character of these two countries.

According to them one of the biggest advantages of India over China is that it is the largest

democratic country of the world. They also said that though these two countries pursue two

different political views the story of their economic growth have some great similarities This

view was echoed by Sen (2005) quoted by Basu (2007), both of them argued that India has a lot

to learn form China to imitate the past paced economic growth of the new economic power. But

china should also learn the democratic practice of India. The authors believe that having a good

democratic society, independent judiciary system and practice is key to sustainable economic

growth.

A complete analysis of all the researches conducted to study the economic growth of China India

shows that the author’s have highly praised the efforts of both China and India. Extensive

economic, structural, social reforms, key infrastructure development and low cost skilled labors

are the inputs of their success. China focused on the manufacturing to excel in the global

business and India still largely relies on the service sector to propel the economic wheel.

III. DATA COLLECTION AND METHODOLOGY

Secondary data was collected from various sources to compare the economic indicators of the

two countries. The main sources of data were from two special economic research report

published by Morgan Stanley Research conducted in the year 2004 and 2010. Secondary data

were also collected form the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD

Stat 2010) which contains the full time series data on the following key economic indicators such

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2893658


Social Science Review [The Dhaka University Studies, Part-D], Vol. 30, No. 2, December 2013

as GDP growth rate, export-import, FDI, tax system, demographic situation and financial system

from the period of 1980 to 2009.

In this study, a descriptive method was used to compare the various aspects of the two

economies. Assessments were made on the different types of economic reforms. Indicators like

the amount of FDI received, GDP growth, growth in export and import, age dependency ratio

were primarily considered to compare the two countries. Similar methodology was applied by

the various authors and organizations for comparing the growth of different countries of South

East Asia and BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) countries. For instant, financial

organization such as Morgan Stanley used descriptive method in the year 2004, 2006 and 2010 to

compare the economic reform of India and China and Betina, Elina and Will (2006) used GTAP

along with descriptive analysis to compare the implication of rapid growth and structural

changes of China and India.

VI. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

China and India have taken different paths to the economic growth and development. China’s

growth strategy has involved the expansion of labour –intensive manufacturing sectors, such as

the textiles and consumer goods, to take the advantage of its abundant supply of labour, raw

materials and technical knowledge in these sectors. On the other hand India’s emphasis was on

less regulated service sector as the growth engine of the economy. The service sector of India has

now accounts for 50% of the India’s total output (Ahya and Gupta, 2010). The information

technology sector has been the most successful sector for Indian economy. It has been a

successful one only because of the economic reforms and it’s abundant of English speaking,

strong technical education system, and professional talent in the technological sector with

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2893658


Social Science Review [The Dhaka University Studies, Part-D], Vol. 30, No. 2, December 2013

programming and managerial experience is the driving force of India in this sector (Ahya and

Xie 2004). In this study comparison was made on several indicators such as economic growth,

FDI, remittance, export and import which are presented below.

4.1 Economic Growth

In comparison to China, India followed a very unique model of growth which was a slow and

gradual process with strong economic base. They have made sure a well developed institutional

frame work and establishment of democracy. Now they have strong macro stability and reduced

volatility in output. Before going for fast track growth India reformed their market regulations,

rule of law business investment taxes and foreign capital investment. Figure 1 shows the GDP

growth rate of both the countries. India achieved GDP growth rate of 8% for the last 10 years

while China pursued fast track growth model was and achieved an average of 9.4% GDP growth

for the 25 years after initiating reforms from 1980’s to 2004. This high paced economic growth

has been accomplished through major structural reforms like improving the human capital and

implementing aggressive labor reforms high level of domestic savings, coupled with positive

demographic changes and by attracting soaring amount of FDI (Ahya and Xie 2004). The

government focused on building infrastructure and improving the cost effectiveness of the

country’s businesses.

4.2 Export and Import Scenario

Our analysis of the export‘s of China and India shows us that India is currently biased towards

higher labor intensive sectors. India’s main export products include textiles, IT services,

agricultural products, gems and Jewelry (Figure 2). On the other hand China’s showed grate

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2893658


Social Science Review [The Dhaka University Studies, Part-D], Vol. 30, No. 2, December 2013

potential in manufacturing segments as it has been a successful force in exporting electric and

electronic products, computer and telecommunications equipment, machinery and high quality

and fashionable garments. India achieved major success in exporting software and iron and steel

for the last 10 years. But in almost all other areas China’s export represents huge multiple of

India’s export (Figure 2).

Over the next 15 -20 years we can see India and china converging as major economic powers.

Their combined export may rise up to 30% of the total global export by 2030.If India and China

maintain their current growth rate the nominal dollar GDP of the two countries may reach up to

$1.3 trillion and 3.9 trillion respectively (Ahya and Gupta 2010).

Figure 1 and 2 shows the export and import trend of merchandise and service of China and India.

It is evident form the data that up until 1990 India was very close to China in terms of the

volume of Export and Import. Post 1990 China started to widen the gap and after the year 2000

the gap between Export and Import volume started the increase at a increasing rate.

4.3 Tariff Rate

China openness of China towards international trade was much faster and earlier then India.

During 1980’s China considerably reduced its tariff. Its weighted import tariff rate in relation to

dropped from 10% in 1985 to 3% today. But India has been slow to cut the tariff. Its weighted

tariff cost was still above 20% in the year 2000 (Figure 5). China’s import tariff averaged

around 50% during 1980’s, which has been reduced to less than 10% in 2009 on the other hand

India also lowered its import tariff rate to almost 6%-7% in 2009 compared to its tariff of 47.8%

during 1991 (Ahya and Gupta 2010).

4.4 Remittance

10

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2893658


Social Science Review [The Dhaka University Studies, Part-D], Vol. 30, No. 2, December 2013

Remittance of a country has huge impact not only on the reserve of the foreign currency but also

on the development of the society and the income of the mass people. The data of inward

remittance flow (Figure 6) shows that China and India had very poor amount of remittance

collection until 1995 compared to the huge population of both the countries. But after 1996 the

high volume of remittance inflow has aided China and India to develop their economy. The data

also shows that the amount of migrant remittance received has remained are almost level since

the year 2000 to 2008.

4.5 FDI Inflows

India is way behind if we measure the equity capital flow which helps a country to accelerate

production growth. India’s fraction of global FDI is roughly around 1% where as China’s

percentage is more than 12% in the year 2004, even countries like Brazil and Mexico receives

more FDI annually than India (Ahya and Xie 2004). But India has taken some key steps like

allowing multiband retail distribution and India’s FDI inflow to its percentage of GDP increased

from 0.75% in 2000 to 3.0% in 2009 (Figure 7). China started internal and external reforms in

1979 to attract FDI. Establishment of Special Economic Zones (SEZ’s), reducing fees for labor

and land, extending the duration of joint venture agreement, huge investment to build up world

class infrastructure, stable political situation, skilled but low cost labor, reduction of corporate &

income tax and joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) all contributed to the heavy inflow

of foreign capital in China. India started liberalizing FDI policy in early nineties (Ahya and Gupta

2010). But the flow of FDI in India is not satisfactory due to corruption, delay in making key

government reforms, red tapes at every level, under developed infrastructure, higher tax and

tariff compared to other developing nations and inefficient law related laws.

11

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2893658


Social Science Review [The Dhaka University Studies, Part-D], Vol. 30, No. 2, December 2013

4.6 Labor Force

One of the growing importance of China and India in the world economy is that they have more

than 40% of the world’s total working age population (UNCTAD Stat 2010). The surplus of

working people in these two countries helps them to contribute low cost labors for their

respective economy. But the countries have witnessed sharp reduction in their age dependency

ration for the last 30 years. China has focused on improving their human capital by dramatically

increasing the literacy level. They have also managed to create enough employment for the

growing working class which aided in higher savings, investment and more growth. Although

India falls behind in basic education, the country has better availability in English speaking

workforce and IT graduates. This helped them to capture the billion dollar global IT service

business. It has been found from the research that from the year 2025 the age dependency ratio of

China will increase again and the availability of cheap labor will go down (Ahya and Gupta 2010).

India on the other hand possesses a surplus stock of tertiary educated people who meets the

current and future economic demand. Another important advantage of India is that the medium

of education is English in urban areas. But productivity wise India lags behind. According to the

recent study by Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) quoted by (Ahya and Gupta 2004) labor

productivity in Chinese manufacturing sector is 10% to 300% more than India. India’s labor law

is a restrictive one compared to the laws of China. It’s much harder to fire of hire a worker in

12

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2893658


Social Science Review [The Dhaka University Studies, Part-D], Vol. 30, No. 2, December 2013

India. To get the competitiveness over china India has to ensure some structural changes along

with a flexible labor law.

4.7 Indirect Tax

India’s indirect tax rate is much higher than China which made its products comparatively more

costly. At the inception of the millennium the collection from custom duty in India is 15% of the

total import. For China it was only 3% (Ahya and Xie 2004). India’s tax system is more complex

which makes it difficult to efficiently allocate the resources and higher production. Inefficient tax

collection system, lack of awareness from the tax payers and undue exemptions in India results

in a squat rate of tax collection. But it is difficult for a country like India with very high fiscal

deficit to reduce tax rate. A single national Value Added Tax (VAT) system will solve the

problem which will eventually improve the tax to GDP ratio. At the beginning of the millennium

the value added tax in China was 17% and the base corporate tax rate is 33%, after 6th year for

the joint venture and foreign enterprises. But at the same period the corporate tax for foreign

companies in India was 41% (Ahya and Xie 2004). Recently the corporate and personal tax rate

came down to 30% and country is reforming its multi rate sales tax system into a single rate

system (Ahya and Gupta 2010).

4.8 Infrastructure Development

China spends six times more than India in building physical infrastructure (Figure 8). After

initiating reform in 1980’s Chinese policy makers realized that sustainable economic growth can

only be possible with world class infrastructure. India’s investment in infrastructure is increasing

as well, but the spending is not enough to stimulate China’s level of economic growth. China’s

13

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2893658


Social Science Review [The Dhaka University Studies, Part-D], Vol. 30, No. 2, December 2013

highway networks almost seven times higher than India. According to Ahya and Xie (2004) the

lead time in Chinese ports are 2-3 weeks compared to 6-12 weeks in India. China enjoyed

surplus of electricity in the 2010 where as India still electricity shortage in the pick hours. Lack

of quality infrastructure in the electricity sector increases system loss and inefficient distribution.

But India has en edge over China in the telecom infrastructure. Increased involvement and

competition from the private sector make the Indian telecom industry more competitive in the

between the two. India’s success in IT service sector has been achieved on the availability of low

cost telecom infrastructure and highly skilled labor. The same strategy is applicable of if they

want to succeed in the manufacturing industry.

India has to develop good investment environment for the private sector so that the private

investors are encouraged to form a joint-venture partnership with the government to build up the

key physical infrastructure of the country.

4.9 Cost Effectiveness

If we compare the cost effectiveness of the two countries in setting up and doing business, China

gets the upper hand. The cost of using most infrastructures like transport cost, port handling fee,

electricity cost are 50% to 80% cheaper in China (Ahya and Xie 2004). India is one of the

highest among the developing countries in cost of doing trade, as percentage of landed cost. The

tariff charged for electricity is one of the highest in the world.

4.10 Fiscal Deficit

The government of India has to face the dual problem of cutting fiscal deficit and increasing

infrastructure development. India needs to reforms its income tax collection to reduce any kind

of fiscal deficit. They need to make some heavy investment on infrastructure development. If the

14

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2893658


Social Science Review [The Dhaka University Studies, Part-D], Vol. 30, No. 2, December 2013

government can’t increase the tax collection (especially income tax) then they will never be able

to tag along the level of infrastructure development of China. A good fiscal balance will help the

country to build a highly skilled working population and also to increase the countries human

development index. This will also facilitate agricultural GDP. China managed its fiscal deficit far

better than India. While India’s fiscal deficit is on an average more than 6% of GDP between the

periods of 1980 to 2000 the deficit of China for the same period was very close to zero (Figure

9). The figure gives us a clear idea of the high fiscal deficit of India compared to China.

V. CONCLUSIONS

The basis of a strong, sustainable economic growth is directly related to high level of

productivity in the economy. It can be in the manufacturing or service sector. The role of the

government is to facilitate the industry with favorable policies and required infrastructures. They

also have to remove all the barriers to trade. As the numbers of investments grow up, it creates

competition. Higher competition reduces cost and increases productivity.

India still has a lot to prove in the manufacturing sector. They need to make substantial

investment to build up a world class infrastructure which will attract foreign investments. Which

is a appalling need for as the country has low level of capital accumulation. Higher investment in

the manufacturing sector will also ensure productive employment opportunity for the less skilled

labor force of India. India still has power shortage which they need to address very quickly. The

government should encourage foreign investment in the power sector. Their tax structure has to

be reformed very quickly and the decision making at the government level has to be very swift.

On the other hand, financial sector reforms and implementing market oriented institutional

framework are the two major responsibilities to address of the Chinese government. China has a

15

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2893658


Social Science Review [The Dhaka University Studies, Part-D], Vol. 30, No. 2, December 2013

huge potential in the IT service and outsourcing business, if they can build up skilled labors with

English speaking abilities. China also needs to lessen government control and encourage more

private competition, which will improve productivity in some key sectors like banking.

In the concluding remarks, it can be said that both China and India are nicely poised to become

economic super powers with in the next 20 years. They will continue to do well in the labor

intensive sectors. If these countries can take the necessary steps discussed in this paper they will

be able to move in to the next step of the ladder and produce quality capital intensive and

resources based products and increase their share of global export. Though China is well ahead

of India in the manufacturing sector India has great potentiality in IT service sector. With the

improvement of the demography, globalization and key structural reforms India has the potential

to outpace China’s GDP growth rate with in the next 10 years.

VII. IMPLICATIONS OF THE STUDY

To build up a society with sustainable growth equal participation by all the members of the

society is very important. Creating income generating activities for the lower income class is

key, to sustainable economic growth. Investment in infrastructure and manufacturing activities,

employment generation for the mass, capital accumulation, creating a suitable environment for

the small entrepreneurs will help a populous country like India to achieve higher growth.

According to statistics (UNCTAD Stat 2010), in India about 5.5 million students drop out of the

school at primary level. Thus the government has to increase efforts to primary level education.

Apart from having a highly skilled workforce level in the IT and Engineering sector India needs

to build highly skilled administrators, efficient factory workers, doctors, social workers and

leaders to achieve the level of China’s economic growth. The flexibility and availability of

16

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2893658


Social Science Review [The Dhaka University Studies, Part-D], Vol. 30, No. 2, December 2013

skilled labor will help India to attract investment both local and foreign. These investments will

produce more jobs and incomes for the country.

India should also target to improve the public savings. Higher public saving means greater

amount of capital and the government can turnaround these resources to create productive

employment spawning in the country. Through building up infrastructures, ensuring transparency

in doing business, industrial reforms and bringing up positive tax reforms India can augment its

capital accumulation. By ensuring all these changes India can boost their FDI and private local

investment which is much lower compared to China for the last 20 years.

For vast country like India it is difficult to develop economic infrastructure all over the country.

To deal with the problem India have to develop more special economic zones in strategic areas

of the country. But Indian government has already addressed this issue and their trend in

infrastructure spending has gone up from 4% of the GDP in 2000 to 6.5% of GDP in 2008. We

believe India specially needs sustained investment in highways and power sector (Ahya and

Gupta 2010).

India complies on high tax rate for collecting higher tax. Although there were some reforms and

reduction of indirect tax rate in India, more reforms are necessary. They have to focus on direct

tax (Like Income Tax) to tackle the problem of increasing fiscal deficit, because indirect taxes

have a negative effect on investment and growth.

One of the key advantages China has on India is that it can make important economic decisions

much quicker than the later. Chinese states are encouraged to compete with each other in

attracting investment and make economic decisions for them. The decentralization process of the

17

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2893658


Social Science Review [The Dhaka University Studies, Part-D], Vol. 30, No. 2, December 2013

decision making will help fast pace the economic growth. Where, government’s role will be to

support the less developed states to keep the income inequality at an acceptable level.

China’s institutional structure lags behind India considerably. Chinese financial system is

dominated by four the state owned banks who face very little competition. Theses banks

accumulated a high amount of non-performing investments over the years. The state owned

banks in China are often used by the high level of government officials to invest in risky and

unsuccessful businesses. The central bank of China was also inapt to deal with frequent

overheating of the economy. A major financial sector modification is needed as a high

performing financial sector one of the key conditions of sustainable economic growth.

Transparency in the legal system and more focused development of human rights are biggest

challenges in front of China. Though, China succeeded in some major macro economic reforms

they have to work on building up there weak legal system and deal with the human right

allegations often raised against them by the rest of the world.

India is well ahead of China in the service industry. China should start looking at the

opportunities in the service sector (especially IT service). China needs to develop the number of

skilled labors in the IT service and improve the English speaking ability of the educated mass.

Increased focus on the higher education in case of China is absolutely necessary to be benefited

form the next wave if service sector globalization.

18

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2893658


Social Science Review [The Dhaka University Studies, Part-D], Vol. 30, No. 2, December 2013

REFERENCE
Holz, C. A. (2006). China’s Economic Growth 1978-2025: What We Know Today about
China’s Economic Growth Tomorrow?-Social Science Division, World
Development, Vol. 36, (10), pp. 1665–1691.

Gupta, D. & Raju, B. S. (2006). Recipe For 8% Economic Growth In India, Minnesota Legal
Studies Research Paper No. 06-07.

Rodrik, D and Subramanian, A. (2004). From "Hindu Growth" to Productivity Surge: The
Mystery of the Indian Growth Transition- IMF working Paper.

Liu, G. S., Liu X., Wei Y. (2001). Openness and Efficiency of India and China Relative to the
World Economy: A Comparative Study, Economics and Finance Section, School
of Social Sciences, Brunel University Economics and Finance Discussion Papers
02-18.

Shane, M. and Gale, F. (2004). China: A Study of Dynamic Growth- Economic Research
Service, WRS-04-08, USDA/ERS.

Bajpai, N. and Dasgupta, N. (2004). Multinational Companies and Foreign Direct Investment in
China and India- The Earth Institute at Columbia University. CGSD Working
Paper No. 2.

Fan, S., Kang, C. C. and Mukherjee , A. (2005). Rural and Urban Dynamics and Poverty:
Evidence from China and India-IFPRI. FCND Discussion Paper 196 DSG
Discussion Paper 23.

Basu, S. R. (2007). Comparing China and India: Is dividend of economic reforms polarized?
Graduate Institute of International Studies. HEI Working Paper No: 01/2007.

19

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2893658


Social Science Review [The Dhaka University Studies, Part-D], Vol. 30, No. 2, December 2013

A Tale of Two Giants: Comparing China and India (2005).Federal Reserve Bank of San
Francisco, Annual Report (2005), Pg: 11-12.

Ahya, C. and Gupta, T. ( 2010). India and China: New Tigers of Asia, Part III, Morgan Stanley
Research Special Economic Analysis. Morgan Stanley Research Press, Published
in Japan.
Ahya, C. and Xie, A. (2004). India and China: A Special Economic Analysis, Morgan Stanley
Equity Research Asia / Pacific. Morgan Stanley Research Press, Published in
Japan.

Dimaranan, B., Ianchovichina, E. and Martin, W. (2006). Competing with Giants-Who Wins,
Who Loses? World Bank Report. Growth in Emerging Markets. Retrieved March
10, 2011. Published by World Bank Press.

World Bank. (2011). Data Catalog. http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog. Retrieved on 10th


March, 2011.

Untact. (2011). UNCTAD Statistics Overview.


http://unctadstat.unctad.org/ReportFolders/reportFolders.aspx?sCS_referer=&sCS
_ChosenLang=en. Data Collected on 12th of March, 2011.

20

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2893658


Social Science Review [The Dhaka University Studies, Part-D], Vol. 30, No. 2, December 2013

Figure 1: Percentage GDP Growth Rate of China and India from 1971-2009

Source : Rana and Mahmud (2011)

Note: Authors used UNCTAD data of China and India from the year 1971 to 2009 to produce the figure.

21

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2893658


Social Science Review [The Dhaka University Studies, Part-D], Vol. 30, No. 2, December 2013

Figure 2: China’s manufacturing products.

Source : Ahya, C. and Xie, A. (2004), Morgan Stanley Research. Pg- 39.

22

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2893658


Social Science Review [The Dhaka University Studies, Part-D], Vol. 30, No. 2, December 2013

Figure 3: India’s manufacturing products.

Source : Ahya, C. and Xie, A. (2004), Morgan Stanley Research. Pg- 39.

23

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2893658


Social Science Review [The Dhaka University Studies, Part-D], Vol. 30, No. 2, December 2013

Figure 4: Exports of merchandise and services, China and India, annual, 1990-2009,
(Amounts in Millions).

Source : Rana and Mahmud (2011)

Note: Authors used UNCTAD data of China and India from the year 1990 to 2009 to produce the figure .

24

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2893658


Social Science Review [The Dhaka University Studies, Part-D], Vol. 30, No. 2, December 2013

Table 5: Imports of merchandise and services, China and India, annual, 1990-2009,
(Amounts in Millions).

Source : Rana and Mahmud (2011)

Note: Authors used UNCTAD data of China and India from the year 1990 to 2009 to produce the figure .

25

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2893658


Social Science Review [The Dhaka University Studies, Part-D], Vol. 30, No. 2, December 2013

Figure 6: Tariff Rate and Custom Duty of China, Korea and India form 1985 to 2000.

Source : Ahya, C. and Xie, A. (2004), Morgan Stanley Research. Pg-27.

26

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2893658


Social Science Review [The Dhaka University Studies, Part-D], Vol. 30, No. 2, December 2013

Figure 7: Custom duty collection as percentage of imports.

Source : Ahya, C. and Xie, A. (2004), Morgan Stanley Research. Pg-27.

27

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2893658


Social Science Review [The Dhaka University Studies, Part-D], Vol. 30, No. 2, December 2013

Figure 8 : Migrants' remittances, annual, 1980-2009.

Source : Rana and Mahmud (2011)

Note: Authors used UNCTAD data of China and India from the year 1980 to 2008 to produce the figure.

28

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2893658


Social Science Review [The Dhaka University Studies, Part-D], Vol. 30, No. 2, December 2013

Figure 9: Inward foreign direct investment flows, annual, 1986-2009 (Amounts in


Millions).

Source : Rana and Mahmud (2011)

Note: Authors used UNCTAD data of China and India from the year 1986 to 2009 to produce the figure.

29

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2893658


Social Science Review [The Dhaka University Studies, Part-D], Vol. 30, No. 2, December 2013

Figure 10: Spending on Infrastructure Investment

Source : Ahya, C. and Xie, A. (2004), Morgan Stanley Research. Pg-29.

30

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2893658


Social Science Review [The Dhaka University Studies, Part-D], Vol. 30, No. 2, December 2013

Figure 11: Fiscal deficit as percentage of the Gross Domestic Product.

Source : Ahya, C. and Xie, A. (2004), Morgan Stanley Research. Pg- 31.

31

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2893658


Social Science Review [The Dhaka University Studies, Part-D], Vol. 30, No. 2, December 2013

Figure 12 : Labor Force of China, all sectors and agricultural sector, form 1980 – 2006
(Amounts in Millions).

Source : Rana and Mahmud (2011)

Note: Authors used UNCTAD data of China and India from the year 1980 to 2009 to produce the figure .

32

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2893658

You might also like