09:28, 11/03/2022 Thẻ ghi nhớ: Chapter 4: Forecasting | Quizlet

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4: phần, sách giáo khoa, câu hỏi
Forecasting Nâng cấp: dùng th...Học

Chapter 4: Forecasting
Thuật ngữ trong học phần này (25)

The primary purpose of the Measure forecast accuracy

mean absolute deviation
(MAD) in forecasting is to:

For a given product demand, is an indication that product demand is declining

the time-series trend equation
is 53 - 4X. The negative sign on
the slope of the equation:

Demand for a certain product The seasonally-adjusted sales forecast for January is
is forecast to be 800 units per 1000 units. To calculate a seasonally-adjusted sales
month, averaged over all 12 forecast you take the product forecast (in this case
months of the year. The 800) and multiply that by the monthly index (in this
product follows a seasonal case 1.25). Thus, 800 * 1.25 = 1000.
pattern, for which the January
monthly index is 1.25. What is
the seasonally-adjusted sales
forecast for January?

The last four weekly values of Bias

sales were 80, 100, 105, and 90
units. The last four forecasts
were 60, 80, 95, and 75 units.
These forecasts illustrate:

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Chapter
The degree or4: Forecasting
strength of a correlation coefficient Học

relationship between two

variables is shown by
the__________

A forecast that projects a Demand forecast

company's sales is a(n):

The forecast for the next period would be 100.6. The

simple exponential smoothing forecast model uses
the following equation:

Given an actual demand of 103,

Last period's forecast + α(Last period's demand –
a previous forecast value of 99,
last period's forecast), where α = the smoothing
and an alpha of .4, the
constant. Therefore, in this case:
exponential smoothing
forecast for the next period
Last period's forecast = 99
would be:
α = .4
Last period's demand = 103

99 + .4 (103 – 99) = 100.6

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09:28, 11/03/2022 Thẻ ghi nhớ: Chapter 4: Forecasting | Quizlet

Chapter 4: Forecasting The forecast for the next period would be Học
58.9. The
simple exponential smoothing forecast model uses
the following equation:

Given an actual demand of 61,

Last period's forecast + α(Last period's demand –
a previous forecast value of 58,
last period's forecast), where α = the smoothing
and an alpha of .3, the
constant. Therefore, in this case:
exponential smoothing
forecast for the next period
Last period's forecast = 58
would be:
α = .3
Last period's demand = 61

58 + .3(61 – 58) = 58.9

The forecast for the next period would be 63.8. The

simple exponential smoothing forecast model uses
the following equation:

Given last periods forecast of

Last periods forecast + α(Last periods demand – last
65, and last periods demand of
periods forecast), where α = the smoothing
62, what is the simple
constant. Therefore, in this case:
exponential smoothing
forecast with an alpha of .4 for
Last periods forecast = 65
the next period?
α = .4
Last periods demand = 62

65 + .4 (62 – 65) = 63.8

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09:28, 11/03/2022 Thẻ ghi nhớ: Chapter 4: Forecasting | Quizlet

Chapter 4: Forecasting The mean absolute deviation is 4. The mean

Học

absolute deviation is designed to provide a

measure of overall forecast error for the model. It
Given forecast errors of -1, 4, 8, does this by taking the sum of the absolute values
and -3, what is the mean of the individual forecast errors and dividing by the
absolute deviation? number of data periods. In this case,

1+4+8+3 = 16
16/4 = 4

Forecasts used for new long-range time horizon

product planning, capital
expenditures, facility location
or expansion, and R&D
typically utilize a__________

Forecasts are usually classified Short-range, medium-range, and long-range

into three categories including:

The forecast for period 7 is 40. This is determined

by solving the equation 25.3 + 2.1X, where X = time
A time-series trend equation is period. In this case we are interested in period 7.
25.3 + 2.1X. What is your Therefore:
forecast for period 7?
25.3 + 2.1(7) =40
25.3 + 14.7 = 40

Time-series patterns that seasonality

repeat themselves after a
period of days or weeks are
called __________

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Chapter 4: Forecasting The Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) is 3.5.Học

The
mean absolute deviation is designed to provide a
measure of overall forecast error for the model. It
does this by taking the sum of the absolute values
of the individual forecast errors and dividing by the
number of data periods.
The last four months of sales
were 8, 10, 15, and 9 units. The
The last four months sales were 8, 10, 15, and 9 units.
last four forecasts were 5, 6, 11,
The forecasts for these same months were 5, 6, 11,
and 12 units. The Mean
and 12 units. Forecast errors are calculated using the
Absolute Deviation (MAD) is:
equation demand – forecast. In this case, that would
be 8 – 5 = 3; 10 – 6 = 4; 15 – 11 = 4; 9 – 12 = -3.
Therefore:

3+4+4+3 = 14
14/4 = 3.5

Which of the following It is based on the assumption that the analysis of

statements about time-series past demand helps predict future demand.
forecasting is true?

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09:28, 11/03/2022 Thẻ ghi nhớ: Chapter 4: Forecasting | Quizlet

Chapter 4: Forecasting The approximate seasonal index for July is Học

0.684.
The seasonal index is calculated by dividing a
month’s actual average demand by the average
demand over all months. Thus, in this case:

A seasonal index for a monthly

Step 1 – Calculate average historical demand. To do
series is about to be calculated
this, we must first obtain the actual demand during
on the basis of three years'
July (in this case 110, 150, 130) and divide by the
accumulation of data. The three
number of months on record (in this case 3). Thus,
previous July values were 110,
average July demand is calculated as 110 + 150 + 130
150, and 130. The average over
= 390/3 = 130
all months is 190. The
approximate seasonal index for
Step 2 – Calculate seasonal index by taking monthly
July is:
average (130) and dividing by average demand over
all months (190).

Seasonal index for July is 130/190 = 0.684

Which of the following 1.0

smoothing constants would
make an exponential
smoothing forecast equivalent
to a naïve forecast?

Which of the following uses The Delphi method

three types of participants:
decision makers, staff
personnel, and respondents?

Which time-series model Naïve approach

assumes that demand in the
next period will be equal to the
most recent period's demand?

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Chapter 4: Forecasting
Given the following data about The four-month moving average is 44. The Học
moving
monthly demand, what is the average is calculated by summing the relevant
approximate forecast for May monthly demand reports and dividing by the
using a four month moving months included in the model. In this case, we are
average?
calculating a four month moving average for May so
we will use the months of January (40), February
November = 39
(42), March (48), and April (46) in our calculation.
December = 36
Therefore:
January = 40

February = 42
40+42+48+46 = 176
March = 48
176/4 = 44
April = 46 Moving Average = 44

The tracking signal is the__________ ratio of cumulative error/MAD

A regression model is used to The correlation between sales and advertising is

forecast sales based on positive.
advertising dollars spent. The
regression line is y=500+35x
and the coefficient of
determination is .90. Which is
the best statement about this
forecasting model?

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09:28, 11/03/2022 Thẻ ghi nhớ: Chapter 4: Forecasting | Quizlet

Chapter 4: Forecasting The 3-month moving average for May is 132.

HọcThe

moving average is calculated by summing the

relevant monthly demand reports and dividing by
the months included in the model. In this case, we
If demand is 106 during January,
are calculating a three month moving average for
120 in February, 134 in March,
May so we will use the months of February (120),
and 142 in April, what is the 3-
March (134), and April (142) in our calculation.
month simple moving average
Therefore:
for May?

120+134+142 = 396
396/3 = 132
Moving Average = 132

Quantitative methods of Exponential smoothing

forecasting include

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