Marine Pollution Bulletin xxx (xxxx) xxxx

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Marine Pollution Bulletin

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/marpolbul

Assessment for oil spill chemicals: Current knowledge, data gaps, and
uncertainties addressing human physical health risk
⁎
Alesia Fergusona, , Helena Solo-Gabrieleb, Kristina Menac
a
University of North Carolina Agriculatural and Technical State University (NCAT), Built Environment Department, Greensboro, NC 27411, United States
b
University of Miami, Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, Coral Gables, FL 33146, United States
c
University of Texas - Houston, School of Public Health, Houston, TX 77030

A R T I C LE I N FO A B S T R A C T

Keywords: Limited models are available to estimate human physical health risks (e.g., probability of outcomes such as lung
Risk assessment disease, cancer, skin disease) from exposure to chemicals resulting from oil spills that may occur offshore and
Oil spill chemicals (OSCs) later impact coastline spills. An approach is presented to assess physical health risks from oil spills that involves
Human exposures to OSCs establishing a platform capable of assessing aggregate health risk (via inhalation, ingestion, and dermal exposure
Fate and transport of oil spill chemicals
routes). Gaps include the need to develop models reflecting oil spill concentration distributions given the in-
Oil spill management
fluence from environmental, physical, biological and chemical factors. Human activities need to be quantified
for different populations including emergency response workers, fishermen, shellfish consumers, and children
who play at beaches that may be impacted by oil spills. Work is also needed in developing comprehensive
toxicological profiles for the majority of chemicals - including dispersants found in oil spills - and to estimate
toxicity from mixtures.

1. Introduction
Risk to US coastal areas from oil spills will continue for several
reasons. First is the increasing demand for oil, prompting expansion of
oil refineries, and increased offshore and deep water drilling leading to
further opportunities for spill incidents. Second, the U.S. population in
coastal counties is already dense in some areas, and is expected to
continue to grow from 123 million to 134 million by 2020 (NOAA,
2013), increasing the potential impact during an oil spill and challen-
ging recovery efforts. Although there is some movement of populations
away from the coast following some disasters, like major hurricanes
(e.g., Hurricane Katrina), population numbers are later restored and
grow. Third, coastal storms exacerbate oil spill disasters by further
eroding and flooding landscapes (Bigio, 2009), impacting coastal eco-
systems (Bam et al., 2018; Biello, 2010), and leading to additional
disruption of economic and social structures and processes (D'Andrea
and Reddy, 2018; Drescher et al., 2014). Climate change, including the
warming oceans and rising sea levels, will likely increase the number
and intensity of storms and damage to oil rigs, refineries, and transport
vessels (Emanuel, 2011). Oil spills, especially when coupled with
coastal storms, threaten the ecology of an area and can negatively
impact human health.
This paper focuses on describing a method for evaluating the
impacts of oil spill chemicals (OSC) to human physical health following
exposures. The paper begins by providing a description of research
programs that address oil spills and literature supporting the need to
address human health risk. A methodological approach for determining
health risks is then described in detail including the need to evaluate
chemical concentration distributions, human activity patterns, and
chemical toxicological profiles. Importantly, data gaps are described for
this methodological approach in the context of developing a health risk
modeling platform for future oil spills. Since health risks from oil spills
are both physical and mental and are sometimes intertwined, the
complexity of these interactions are briefly mentioned, along with
challenges in communicating risks to communities given uncertainties
and variabilities in the exposures and outcomes.
2. Background
The Institute of Medicine (now called the National Academy of
Medicine) convened a group in 2010 of scientists to discuss research
needs following the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill (DWHOS). The re-
sulting Report identified key areas of interest that could result in better
outcomes for communities and for the environment following the oc-
currence of oils spills (Institute of Medicine, 2010). This scientific group
identified, based on what had transpired to date, a need to address the

⁎
Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: acferguson@ncat.edu (A. Ferguson), hmsolo@miami.edu (H. Solo-Gabriele), Kristina.D.Mena@uth.tmc.edu (K. Mena).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2019.110746
Received 24 July 2019; Received in revised form 29 October 2019; Accepted 15 November 2019
0025-326X/ © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Please cite this article as: Alesia Ferguson, Helena Solo-Gabriele and Kristina Mena, Marine Pollution Bulletin,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2019.110746
A. Ferguson, et al.
psychosocial impacts of oil spills, seafood safety and the lack of trust
among parties. Also importantly, exposure assessment to address the
physical health effects was identified as a priority along with a need to
more accurately and effectively communicate those exposure and
health risks in a way the communities could understand and process in
a meaningful and practical manner.
There have been more studies on ecological impacts from oil spills,
and this may be justified where many believe the effects from oil spills
are most profound on the ocean and shore habitats for plants and an-
imals (Barron, 2011; Beyer et al., 2016; Brandt et al., 2002; Committee
on the Effects of the Deepwater Horizon Mississippi Canyon-252 Oil
Spill on Ecosystem in the Gulf of Mexico, Ocean Studies Board, Division
on Earth and Life Studies, 2013). For example, The Gulf Sea Grant is a
large consortium of research scientists across the 5 Gulf states that
largely focus on the ecosystem health and produce a number of oil spill
science fact sheets (Sea Grant, 2018). Some studies have also focused on
the mental health outcomes for humans that have resulted from the
impacts of oil spills, where displacement, loss of jobs or earnings in
fishing and oil refining can cause stress and anxiety (Buttke et al., 2012;
Drescher et al., 2014; Osofsky et al., 2011). These mental health out-
comes can manifest in physical health outcomes making it difficult to
associate OSC exposures through the inhalation, ingestion and dermal
routes to any visible adverse physical health outcomes. A study by
Croisant et al., for example, looked at 100 participants from three study
areas along the coast to address mental and physical outcomes fol-
lowing the DWH spill, revealing the potential correlation between risk
factors for both mental and physical outcomes (Croisant et al., 2017).
Additional studies are needed that focuson human physical health
outcomes from exposures to oil spills. The majority of work published
to date has addressed impacts to oil spill workers, individuals most
likely to come into close contact with higher concentrations soon after
spill events, which is understandable. The GuLF Study, for example, is a
large multi-million dollar funded study through the National Institutes
of Health to evaluate exposures and health outcomes for clean-up
workers and volunteers involved in the DWHOS over a long period of
time (NIH, 2018). Early publications from the group describe specific
activities of those workers involved with a goal of evaluating how job
tasks can be modeled to address potential exposures and resulting
health outcomes (Kwok et al., 2017; Stewart et al., 2017). Although
there were 33,000 enrolled participants in this study, it is believed that
as many as 100,000 individuals were involved in the BP clean-up efforts
from response to administrative support (Kwok et al., 2017). Smaller
studies have also evaluated the long-term health effects for workers
involved in clean-up activities (D'Andrea and Reddy, 2018). In a study
of 88 clean-up workers, researchers documented that most of the ex-
posed at their seven-year follow-up exams developed chronic rhinosi-
nusitis and airway dysfunction syndrome, in addition to illness symp-
toms that were reported during initial visits (e.g., reduced platelet
count) (D'Andrea and Reddy, 2018). Other studies have measured the
concentration of some oil spill chemicals present in the blood of various
populations (e.g., fisher workers and coastal residents) months fol-
lowing the DWHOS, finding levels well above average expected for the
US population indicating some cause for concern (Sammarco et al.,
2013). A few other studies have looked at other populations to question
the associations between exposures and health outcomes. A study by
Harville et al. (2017) for example, used a questionnaire for self-re-
porting oil spill exposure and pregnancy complications.
Given the research, response and reporting programs ongoing in the
Gulf and other coastal areas, it is challenging to determine all of the
relevant or overlapping work and whether they adequately address oil
spill impacts to human health for various populations. Furthermore,
there is not a clear understanding of how current work could be used to
address oil impacts to human health in the future. There are challenges
to isolating and addressing physical health risks to oil spill chemicals.
Fate and transport mechanisms for both oil contaminants and dis-
persants are complex where time and spatial scales require detailed
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assessments. In addition, the overlay of human activities with the pre-
sence of oil spill contaminants at various concentration levels can be
difficult to measure for various populations. Physical health outcomes
are further complicated by existing health status of populations af-
fected, and even prior exposures to similar compounds. There are other
challenges to consider such as the source for the petroleum based
contaminants along coastal regions, which can also be attributed to
inland sources, runoff from chemical plants, and even coastal com-
bustion sources such as boat exhaust. Determining the appropriate
methodologies and tools to distinguish effects and sources can be per-
plexing for populations. For that reason, this paper evaluates a potential
risk assessment approach that focuses on improved measures of phy-
sical health outcomes from exposure to oil spill chemicals accounting
for various exposure scenarios (i.e., across various populations). Data
needs and challenges are presented within this methodological ap-
proach.
3. Methods and analysis
Exposure assessment approaches to various contaminants in the
environment can be divided into direct versus indirect methodologies.
Direct methodologies can be seen as real-time approaches to evaluate
exposure (i.e., contact with) and dose uptake (i.e., movement of the
contaminant across a human barrier, e.g., skin) and could, for example,
require subject's wearing inhalation monitors or dermal patches to
measure the contaminant loading, or duplicate plate analysis (i.e.,
identical plate of consumed food analyzed for contaminants consumed)
to address ingestion dose over a set exposure period. Biological mon-
itoring of urine or blood can also be used to estimate contaminant
uptake across all routes of exposure. There are limitations for direct
methods such as missed key exposure periods, subject challenges with
wearing monitors and the ability to monitor sufficient subjects. Indirect
human risk assessment methods (i.e., algorithms and modeling ap-
proaches) offer advantages such as modeling exposures over longer
periods and over populations, and conducting variability, uncertainty
and sensitivity analysis on human activities and chemical concentra-
tions. Discussed herein is an indirect methodological approach to ad-
dress exposures and physical health outcomes to oil spill chemicals, and
the specific data needs within that approach for this risk scenario (i.e.,
adverse physical health outcomes from exposure to oil spill chemicals).
3.1. Typical risk assessment approach (EPA and National Academy of
Science Approach)
Best practices in risk assessment are found in the guidance pub-
lished by the National Research Council (National Research Council;
Division on Earth and Life Sciences; Board on Environmental Studies
and Toxicology; Committee on Improving Risk Analysis Approaches
Used by the U.S. EPA, 2009) which embeds the traditional risk as-
sessment approach in a series of steps that identifies the scope and goals
of the assessment, evaluates the process, and identifies management
implications. The traditional risk assessment framework can be used to
compute comprehensive health risks to address exposures to oil spill
chemicals. The approach consists of mathematical relationships that
integrate knowledge of the environmental distribution of contaminants
with human behavior to quantify health risk(s). Given this framework,
the computation of risk can follow a sequential process according to the
scenario under consideration involving concentration, exposure and
dose, to ultimately estimate health risk (Ott, 2006). The standard health
risk model (i.e., framework) first starts with a focus on the source of
exposure and ends with the health risk outcomes. The approach re-
quires estimates for oil spill chemical concentrations in the environ-
ment and ways populations can be exposed. This is followed by un-
derstanding the uptake dynamics and the toxicity of the compound
(e.g., how it distributes, metabolizes) in the body to estimate health
risks to an individual or population, and a reliance of appropriate
A. Ferguson, et al.
studies in the field that consider biomarker specificity.
This health risk model requires data for every model step in terms of
a variety of exposure, dose and chemical parameters, and requires
verification and validation of model output against a known scenario.
In fact, various components of a modeling platform should be in-
tegrated to resolve input, output factors/parameters and spatial and
temporal aspects. The overall objective is to predict the probability of
adverse health outcomes — whether cancer and acute or chronic non-
cancer effects — associated with exposure to oil spill-related hazards.
Dose-response estimates must be adjusted for different vulnerabilities
during developmental stages (i.e., fetus to adulthood).
Elements of this human health risk methodological approach and
current data gaps are presented below in terms of 1) Determining
Chemical Source and Concentration of Oil Spill Chemicals (OSC), 2)
Determining of Relevant Human Activity Patterns for Exposure, and 3)
Determining Chemical Toxicity for OSCs. Example algorithms are pre-
sented to demonstrate the risk assessment approach that can be in-
tegrated into a comprehensive risk modeling platform. Also discussed
are the statistical considerations and the challenges of communicating
human health risks to OSCs given the uncertainty and variability with
collecting data and, analyzing and interpreting health risks.
3.2. Modeling chemical source and concentration
3.2.1. Defining oil spill chemicals
Oil spill chemicals (OSCs) are defined as crude oil components
predominantly containing alkanes, cycloalkanes, aromatics and as-
phaltenes (Huba and Gardinali, 2016; Stout and Payne, 2016). The
aromatics are known to be more toxic, and some are persistent in the
environment, such as the polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Very
complex hydrocarbons such as polycyclic isoprenoids (e.g., hopanes
and terpanes) can also be persistent (Bagby et al., 2017; Del'Arco and
De França, 2001; Ramseur, 2011), depending on whether degradation
is assessed in exposed or subsurface sediments. Trace metals are also
found in OSCs, some of which are natural or added from refining or
processing of the crude oil, where their consideration depends upon the
spill event (i.e., tanker versus drilling). Every oil has a signature defined
by the type and percent of various types of hydrocarbons (Baszanowska
and Otremba, 2014). In some cases, biomarkers specific to a particular
oil can be used to identify impact regions corresponding to a specific
spill. Often, it is the chemical and biomarker signature that allows the
responsible party (i.e., spiller) to be identified. However, defining the
chemical signature in environmental samples is a challenge especially
after the oil has weathered. In many cases there is difficulty in separ-
ating impacts from oil spills from other sources of the same chemicals
found in oil.
Dispersants may also be included if added to the spill as part of
mitigation efforts. When dispersants are used as a part of a response
treatment for oil spills, they are also included as a component of OSCs.
Dispersants are surfactants. They are a mixture of emulsifiers and sol-
vents (Cressey, 2010) which break down oil to droplet form, allowing
bacteria to degrade the oil at a faster rate. There were two main types of
dispersants used in the DWHOS: Corexit 9500A and Corexit 9527A.
These Corexit mixtures contain various chemicals including dioctyl-
sulfosuccinate (DOSS) (a sulfonic acid salt) and propylene glycol. Ad-
ditional components of Corexit 9500 include sorbitan, butanedioic acid,
propanol, and petroleum distillates. Additional components of Corexit
9527 include 2-butoxyethanol (NALCO Environmental Solutions LLC,
2018).
The use of dispersants is controversial as some believe these pro-
ducts allow the oil to remain in the environment for longer periods than
oil on its own, while others believe they are a useful and significant part
of the oil mitigation process (Kleindienst et al., 2015, 2016; Lubchenco
et al., 2012; Prince et al., 2016; Tremblay et al., 2017). In terms of the
negative outcomes for use of dispersants, some scientists believe that by
allowing the oil droplets to enter the water column at a faster rate, more
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damage occurs to marine life at lower trophic levels, and promotes
more bacterial growth along the coastline. Evidence of this is provided
through studies that have shown increased persistence of dispersants
(White et al., 2014) and their aquatic toxicity (Edwards et al., 2003) to
deep-water coral (DeLeo et al., 2016), marine zooplankton (Almeda
et al., 2016; Toyota et al., 2016), oysters (Vignier et al., 2015; Volety
et al., 2016), and fish (Dussauze et al., 2015). Chemicals trapped in
tarmats inhibited cell viability in the hippocampal, kidney and epi-
thelial cells, suggesting human toxicity (Bhattacharya et al., 2016). The
2-butoxyethanol found in Corexit 9527A is linked to liver cancer and
reproductive disorders (Mallinckrodt Baker Inc., 1996). Some groups
now show caution in the use of dispersants. Alaska's contingency plan,
for example, calls for the use of dispersants only where there is a high
probability of success (e.g., lighter oil), and encourages the use of other
containment and or removal techniques (e.g., skimming, booming)
otherwise or allowing oil to degrade on its own (NOAA, 2018a). On the
other hand consideration to the use of oil dispersants is given to avoid
human exposures, and beach impacts if large oil masses impact the
shore.
3.2.2. Current options for concentration determination of OSCs for human
contact and existing data gaps
To determine OSC concentrations in areas where populations be-
come exposed, the point source, location, timing of spill, and spill load
need to be identified. Source and spill volume provide an estimate for
the original chemical constituents and their concentrations. Knowing
the location and timing of the spill, along with spill volume, allow for
the potential determination of environmental concentrations for human
contact based upon predictive modeling platforms that incorporate
multiple interconnected environmental, physical, biological and che-
mical predictors. Environmental predictors could include changing
ocean and air conditions that move, disperse, or facilitate the de-
gradation of the oil mass (e.g., wind, waves, tide, currents, temperature,
and sunlight). Physical predictors could include beach and shoreline
geography that influence shoring and mass distribution of the oil.
Biological predictors could include interaction with marine life and in
particular breakdown of oil droplets by bacterial organisms in the
ocean's water column and along the beach. Chemical predictors could
include interactions of oil components and other chemicals present in
the water, soil, or air. Fig. 1 illustrates the complex interactions be-
tween all these factors.
NOAA's Office of Response and Restoration (OR&R) currently has a
number of modeling platforms developed or under development for the
prediction of environmental concentrations of OSCs. NOAA's General
NOAA Operational Modeling Environment (GNOME) is a tool devel-
oped and used to predict the trajectory of oil in a body of water. It can
be run in default mode for specific locations where the bathymetry is
already defined in the model through readily available location files. It
interfaces with on-line environmental data that provides information
about winds and tide which in turn is used to simulate two-dimensional
currents in the nearshore. The GNOME model can also be run using
other sources of current information and has the capability of in-
tegrating current data from other readily available sources such as
HYCOM (Chassignet, 2003; Wallcraft, 2003) and the Navy's Global
HYCOM which assimilates satellite observations, sea surface tempera-
ture, and salinity profiles from floats and buoys (Metzger et al., 2014).
The NOAA Trajectory Analysis Planner (TAP) is another model that
analyzes statistics from potential spill trajectories generated by GNOME
to incorporate the likelihood of one trajectory over the other. TAP also
incorporates relevant data such as shoreline characteristics for the
beaching and refloating of an oil mass. The Automated Data Inquiry for
Oil Spills (ADIOS) is another NOAA model that predicts weathering of
oil based on physical changes in the marine environment (ADIOS
Development Team; NOAA, 2016). The next version of GNOME is being
further developed as a web-based system integrated with ADIOS. The
NOAA suite of models provides an impressive start to predict OSC
A. Ferguson, et al.
Fig. 1. Influence of environmental, physical, biological and chemical factors on
OSC concentrations for human contact.
concentrations at the shoreline.
The U.S. Department of Energy's National Energy Technology
Laboratory has also designed a Blowout and Spill Occurrence Model
(BLOSOM) that provides assistance in getting the nearshore con-
centration for OSC (Nelson et al., 2015; U.S. DoE, 2018). BLOSOM is
designed to simulate offshore oil spills resulting from deepwater
(> 500 ft) and ultra-deepwater (> 5000 ft) well blowouts. It simulates
oil and gas jet rising from the wellhead, simulates transport until
beaching, sinking or complete degradation, and simulates weathering
of the oil during transport.
Additional oil spill models have been developed (ITOPF, 2018).
Some models have been developed for specific environments, such as
the Mediterranean Sea (Alves et al., 2015), Canada's Pacific North Coast
(Living Oceans, 2018), and the U.S. Continental Coasts including Alaska
(BOEM, 2018). The Oil Spill Response Limited (OSRL), an international
industry-funded cooperative, and RPS Group, a consulting firm, have
also developed modeling capabilities specific to industry needs (ASA,
2018; OSRL, 2018). Several models also exist that have been developed
and utilized through universities and other research institutions
(GoMRI, 2016; Guo and Wang, 2009).
If the goal is to be able to predict human exposures from future oil
spills, ultimately, various models need to refine the concentration of
OSC compounds in media that populations are likely to contact. Herein
is where data gaps lie. For children playing in the beach environment
for example, concentrations in beached sand, in nearshore waters, and
in the air for volatile and semi-volatile compounds are of interest. For
fish consumers, OSC concentrations in floating oil and ultimately dis-
solved or suspended in the water column can potentially accumulate in
shellfish. Algorithms that compute oil spill chemical concentrations in
air, water, and beach sand can be potentially coupled with results from
fate and transport models for this further refinement, taking into ac-
count other characteristics that influence these relevant exposure con-
centrations. Concentration model algorithms must consider spatial and
temporal distributions of OSCs in air, water, and beach sands (i.e.,
depositional zones) and can be evaluated in the context of constant or
changing beach or ocean physical factors. Wave height and beach slope
may influence the retention of OSCs in the nearshore. Important sedi-
ment physical factors include grain size and mineralogy. Environmental
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physical factors such as water temperature and solar radiation may also
have influences. In addition, beach activities such as heavy beach use
and beach maintenance can also impact local OSCs.
An ideal, comprehensive concentration modeling platform must be
flexible in its predictive ability to consider all beaches, allowing for
variations of relevant parameters to resolve the OSC concentrations.
There is a potential loss in accuracy as models are integrated and some
difficulty may be encountered when addressing the uncertainties and
variabilities across the concentration prediction platforms.
Contingency plans and recorded removal and containment actions
taken in the field should also be considered to address the reduction or
change in the original oil mass. Mitigation techniques include in-situ
burning designed to volatilize oil spill components, containment using
booms to minimize impacts to coastlines, and skimming to remove
floating oil (NOAA, 2018b). In-situ burning creates a toxic smoke and is
not recommended for spills near coastlines. Containment using booms
can be used in predominantly calm seas to protect sensitive shorelines
such as beaches and marshes. But during stormy conditions, booms are
ineffective. Skimming coupled with containment booms can remove oil
from the surface of the ocean under calm conditions.
3.2.3. Using collected environmental concentrations to validate model
predictions for OSCs
There is a potential to validate concentration models (i.e., test the
model's predictive ability) against measurements taken in the field. Oil
spills, such as the DWHOS and the Texas City “Y” oil spill in Galveston
have repositories of measured data. The USEPA data from DWHOS (U.S.
EPA, 2015), consisting of over 58,000 data points in air, 20,000 in
water and 14,000 in sediment, has been preliminarily assessed by
various researchers looking to understand environmental contamina-
tion and some human exposure scenarios (Black et al., 2016, Montas
et al. 2019), and this can be further extended. In addition to this da-
tabase through EPA, other repositories exist such as NOAA's Data In-
tegrations Visualization Exploration and Reporting (DIVER), GoM
Coastal Ocean Observing System (GCOOS), and the integrated data-
bases established through the Ocean Conservancy. The Gulf of Mexico
Research Initiative Information and Data Cooperative (GRIIDC) also has
an extensive data repository of concentration measures associated with
DWH, including almost 800,000 environmental data measures in sedi-
ments, water, weathered oil, and raw oil (Gulf of Mexico Research
Initiative (GoMRI), 2018). This wealth of existing data can be poten-
tially used to validate models predicting geographic environmental
concentration.
3.3. Determining human activities relevant for exposure to OSCs
Adverse exposure is the contact of humans with unwanted, harmful
contaminants and relies on an understanding of human activities.
Contact can occur through dermal contact, inhalation, and ingestion
routes, depending on the properties of the chemical or media (i.e., air,
water, soil, foods) in which the chemical resides and human behavior in
and around that media. Health risk assessments might focus on specific
scenarios or populations, especially for groups that possesses greater
vulnerabilities or susceptibilities. The types of activity patterns needed
include, but are not limited to, contact duration and frequency with
sand and beach water, numbers of visits to beach, consumption pat-
terns, work routines and tasks, and hygiene activities, and depend on
the population of interest (Fig. 3). There are other types of exposure and
dose activity factors needed to ultimately make a calculation uptake
and dose such as soil/sand loading and inhalation rates, and much
depends on the route of exposures for the OSC chemicals. Some lit-
erature values may exist. However more refined data may be needed to
look at spill exposure scenarios (i.e., recreational and work behaviors
along coastal beaches). We can obtain some of this information from
existing databases but some types of specific information require data
collection and analysis. It can be challenging and potentially cost-
A. Ferguson, et al.
prohibitive to obtain all the needed activity information to evaluate risk
to all populations from various OSCs found in various media. In cases
where data are not available, estimates can be made and a probabilistic
approach can be used to obtain a range of risk estimates that consider
the uncertainty in the data.
3.3.1. Methods activity patterns collection
Relevant activity patterns for human exposure are typically col-
lected through observation and recording, surveys of past and planned
activities, purchase and sales records, and interviews and recall diaries
(i.e., dynamic and more timely logs of activities). There may be other
innovative variations on these standard methods such as videotaping
and video-translation methodologies (Ferguson et al., 2013; Ferguson
et al., 2005) and mobile phone data mining usage (Jiang et al., 2017).
These methods are used to assess various types of activity patterns that
can be defined as micro, meso and macro activity patterns. Micro, meso
and macro suffix define the level of details in activity patterns starting
from per second behaviors in contact frequency and duration, to counts
of frequency per hour, to yearly time spent, respectively, where the
exact demarcations lines are blurred in types. Meso and macro activities
can often be derived from micro-activity patterns. Videotaping and
video-translation techniques can be used to collect very detailed micro
activity patterns (i.e., lines of contact patterns, locations visited) useful
for the dermal route that relies on understanding the variability in
contact patterns (Zartarian et al., 1997). Using videotaping and video-
translation methodologies, allows for sequences of activity patterns,
from which can be derived frequency and duration of contact with
object and surfaces and time spent in various micro-environments.
In any risk assessment algorithmic approach, there are other con-
siderations such as timeframe for the risk assessment and that may
depend on the toxicity of the chemical and its persistence in the en-
vironment. These timeframes will affect the needed level of detail in
activity patterns. There are other factors important for health risk as-
sessment, such as changes in our environment that might affect the
activity/behavior patterns (e.g., seasonal and economic changes).
Below we explore three populations at-risk for exposures to OSC and
address current knowledge and data gaps in activity patterns. Other
populations and communities may also be at-risk and require estimates
of specific and relevant activity patterns (Fig. 3).
3.3.2. Activity patterns for populations of interest
Exposure scenario for child beach play:
Children are important for evaluating recreational beach use and
potential health risks given their potential susceptibility and vulner-
ability to adverse health outcomes (Beamer et al., 2012; Freeman et al.,
2005; Xue et al., 2007) where contaminants may be present. For one,
children transition through critical developmental periods when toxic
exposures impact developing organs and systems. Children are also at
higher risk also due to their play habits which involve intimate contact
with beach sands or contaminated seawater for example (Shoaf et al.,
2005). Additionally, a child's mouth and nose are closer to the ground
than that of an adult, resulting in a greater inhalation of pollutants that
accumulate in sediments. For children, primary pathways of chemical
exposure should include incidental ingestion of sand or water during
recreation, as well as dermal and inhalation exposures (Barraj et al.,
2007). Inhalation exposures should also be addressed for children when
considering volatilization and aerosolization of OSCs. Special attention
should focus on child play scenarios at beaches within the intertidal
zone sands, an area where contaminants tend to accumulate in the se-
diments (Shah et al., 2011; Wright et al., 2011).
For the child beach play scenario, it is important to consolidate all
available activity data for children's play activities (e.g., time spent in
contact with contaminated media, skin loading, and inhalation rates).
EPA's Children's Exposure Factors Handbook and Child-Specific
Exposure Scenario (U.S. EPA, 2008, 2011, 2014) offers well accepted
consolidated exposure- dose factors and algorithms (i.e., children
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breathing rates, soil consumption), while individual studies offer re-
fined and more recent information on other exposure factors. For ex-
ample, estimates of sand and soil adhesion to skin to improve estimates
of dermal exposure can be found in a number of published works
(Ferguson et al., 2009; Ferguson et al., 2008). Also, the U.S. EPA's NEER
(National Epidemiological and Environmental Assessment of Recrea-
tional Water) conducted over a three-year study surveying 29,100 lake
beach visitors in Rhode Island, Alabama, Mississippi, Indiana, Mi-
chigan, Ohio and Indiana (Heaney et al., 2012, 2009). Although the
study was focused on addressing microbial exposure, it offers some
activity patterns across, age, gender, race and ethnicity on certain be-
haviors (e.g., digging in sand and body buried in sand). The study also
addressed number of visits to a lake beach, distance traveled, and wash
events following play activities. These activities offer insights relevant
for both acute and chronic-long term potential exposures for children
and adults. There are some other specific limited information available
concerning average swim and play times for adults and children that
might be useful. Wiley et al., evaluated, for example, children's activ-
ities in California over the course of a day (Wiley et al., 1991). One of a
few studies specific to recreational beach use include Zhu et al. (Zhu
et al., 2011), which focused on estimating the contributions of human
bathing to beach water microbial levels. In their study, an informal
survey of 12 beach users found that beach-goers in south Florida swam
about 3 times per beach visit for a total water exposure time of 1 h.
Ferguson et al. (2019)b found from 400 parental surveys found that
46% of the respondents stay at the beach 3 h or longer when they take
their children, followed by 2 to 3 hours for 37.2% of respondents, 1 to 2
hours for 13% of respondents, and less than 1 hour for 1.3% of re-
spondents.
Researchers should consider, however, capturing children activity
patterns across a broader population of children and adults specific to
understanding behaviors at regional coastal beaches where spills are
likely to occur to improve estimates of risks to OSCs. Videotaping and
video-translation methodologies can be used to capture contact patterns
with surfaces (e.g., play toys, sands, seawater) and time spent in beach
microenvironments (intertidal zones, seawater). In addition, more fo-
cused surveys capturing activities for coastal beaches where spills are
likely or common would allow researchers to understand long terms
behavior and even variability in behaviors (e.g., how many times per
year do you go to these beaches, do you always bring toys, do you have
a bath soon after leaving the beach and so forth). Soil adherence studies
should also address the loading of various beach sands to the skin as a
result of actual children's play and based on soil type and conditions.
Current work is being funded through the Gulf of Mexico Research
Initiative to collect activity patterns for children and families through
surveys and to conduct videotaping and video-translation for more
precise contact activities related to oil spills (Ferguson et al., 2019a).
We hope these initiatives continue.
Exposure based on shellfish consumption:
Aquatic life and therefore fisheries are heavily impacted by oil
spills, often leading to loss of jobs and income to the industry where
exposures to those who consume seafood are of concern. Shellfish are
considered to be of particular risk due to their ability to filter and
concentrate contaminants, potentially accumulating oil spill particu-
lates and/or accumulation of chemicals (Viñas et al., 2009). People who
consume shellfish can be at risk of ingesting higher levels of OSCs due
to their accumulation within this food source. There needs to be a more
complete understanding of health risks following oil spills for those who
consume seafood. Closure of fisheries should depend on accurate and
real time data on risks through an understanding on harvesting location
and related consumption patterns for various geographic populations
and groups. Shellfish and other fish consumption patterns are available
in the literature (Tran et al., 2012; USDA, 2018) for various socio-
economic groups and age groups. Consideration in any health risk es-
timate should be also given to the risks to pregnant women and their
fetuses, considered in this context the most susceptible group (Rotkin-
A. Ferguson, et al.
Ellman et al., 2011; Traynor et al., 2013). Some progress on risk as-
sessments for fish consumption or fisheries closures have been per-
formed (Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment (OEHHA),
2015; Stuchal et al., 2019; Wickliffe et al., 2018; Wilson et al., 2014).
However more dynamic and comprehensive risk estimations are needed
that rely on integrating a variety of consumption patterns with chan-
ging seafood uptake and accumulation of toxic OSCs. Researchers must
be cognizant of the fact that chargrilling and smoking foods can add
similar chemicals of interest to food when looking directly at bio-
markers of exposure in a population based on dietary exposures.
Exposure for oil spill response workers (OSRWs)
OSRWs are those who work onshore to cleanup oil during the post-
emergency response phase (Walker et al., 2016). If not protected and
procedures not followed, OSRWs risk exposure to OSCs through dermal
and inhalation routes may be high. Marine oil spill response for worker
protection is managed according to the regulations found in 40 CFR
300, the National Oil and Hazardous Substance Pollution Contingency
Plan. Response actions conducted under the plan must comply with the
provisions established by OSHA in 40 CFR 300.150, Hazardous Waste
Operations and Emergency Response. There are some current ongoing
studies to address worker exposures as mentioned earlier, such as the
GuLF study and other studies on clean-up workers (D'Andrea and
Reddy, 2013; Gam et al., 2018; Kwok et al., 2017), which rely on
questionnaires of exposures and in some cases clinical data. Some
controversies exist in the field concerning the methodologies used for
the GuLF Study to address physical outcomes an interpretation of bio-
markers (e.g., Piacentino et al., 2014; Wickliffe et al., 2014). There is
need then to expand risk assessment approaches, and address any future
potential exposure for oil spill workers by addressing their possible
activity patterns, potential exposures and health outcomes. Procedures
found under OHSA and EPA response and management plans (OSHA,
2017; U.S. EPA, 2016), can be further integrated into the activity pat-
terns databases to understand worker tasks and their variability with
locations, types of responses and clean-up methods used for inclusion in
risk assessment modeling efforts.
3.3.3. Inclusion of social-demographic data for health risk evaluation to
OSCs
Health risk estimates should broadly consider how adverse impacts
to coastal areas will affect diversified populations that live along coastal
areas through quantitative and qualitative assessments where practical.
Therefore, all socio-demographic and socio-economic factors (e.g., age
susceptibilities, varying play activities of different racial groups, access
to health treatment) should be considered that may affect the exposure
scenarios and health risk outcome (Fig. 2). Those that visit beach areas
may not travel very far. In an economic survey of the financial benefit
Fig. 2. Population, activity and socio-demographic considerations for understanding health risks.
6
Marine Pollution Bulletin xxx (xxxx) xxxx
of beach recreational area in San Clemente, California, 1100 visitors
indicated that a little over 26% lived > 60 miles away, demonstrating
that local populations are most affected (King and Ph, 2002). This result
is similar to information found in the U.S. EPA NEER Study (Heaney
et al., 2009). Studies should emphasize the demographics of those po-
pulations that live near coastal areas where local U.S. census data on
populations along coastal area can offer information on their potential
vulnerabilities. Some individual studies have synthesized local demo-
graphic data. For example, the Gulf Coast Community Health and Well
Being Indicators study monitored the health and well-being of residents
adjacent to coastal environments evaluating factors such as health
disease rates, economic security and access to health care services
(National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science, 2017). The Office of Re-
sponse and Restoration has also developed coastal sensitivity maps for
consideration of human resource areas (NOAA, 2017), and these might
be useful in understanding human impact (e.g., to beaches and parks).
Use of well-designed surveys however may be necessary to obtain re-
levant information.
3.4. Determining chemical toxicity for OSC components
Determination of health risks cannot rely only on knowing the ex-
posure and ultimately the amount of chemical that enters the body over
time. Risks are also dependent upon an understanding of the harm that
chemicals can cause in the body. The harm can be cancerous, or acute,
or chronic noncancerous outcomes. There are some known and sus-
pected health risks to the various chemicals found in the dispersants
and crude oils (Aguilera et al., 2010; Laffon et al., 2016). Many of the
individual chemicals in dispersants are found in cosmetics at low levels
and at higher levels can cause skin, eye and respiratory irritation
(McGowan et al., 2017). This is also true for many of the compounds
found in crude oil (e.g., PAHs and metals), where some PAHs and other
OSCs influence physical health in prolonged exposure scenarios
(Cheong et al., 2011; Ha et al., 2008).
Robust health risk assessments require detailed studies evaluating
hazard parameters to relate exposure to health effects. For non-can-
cerous effects, these include hazard quotients, which require the defi-
nition of minimum risk levels (MRLs) for chemical compounds. MRLs
are the concentrations of a particular chemical per unit body weight per
unit time that does not cause disease. To estimate the probability of
cancer from exposure to a chemical, a slope factor is needed that relates
the exposure to the probability of cancer, where slope factors are upper
bound values for the increased risk for a cancer outcome from a lifetime
exposure.
The CDC's Agency for Toxic Substances & Disease Registry has
toxicological profiles (i.e., MRLs, slope factors) for some of the OSCs
A. Ferguson, et al.
(e.g., PAHs, metals), but not for all. Toxicological profiles rely extensive
toxicological and epidemiological studies. The EPA's Integrated Risk
Information System (IRIS) (U.S. EPA, 2018) also provides a synthesis of
available dose-response information where some of the OSC chemicals
of concern are included. Notable exceptions to available dose-response
information include the dispersant components, 2-butoxyethanol, and
dioctylsulfosuccinate, and oxidative by-products of OSCs (Aeppli et al.,
2012; White et al., 2014). For chemicals not included in IRIS or other
toxicological databases, quantitative structure-activity relationships
(QSAR) can be potentially used to relate the properties of the chemical
(structure, solubility, octanol water partition coefficient, hydrogen-ac-
tivity) to potential behavior in organs and tissues (i.e., its potential
toxicity or toxic equivalents). Work is needed to integrate known in-
formation on all components for oil spill chemicals and to identify data
gaps in understanding toxicity across population (e.g., pregnant
women, children).
There is also a need to better understand the toxicity to humans
from exposure to OSCs in mixtures at various exposure levels. Some lab
studies have been conducted to evaluate the toxicological impact to
lung health from exposures to OSCs. For example, Liu et al., evaluated
the impact of crude oil, dispersants Corexit 9500 and Corexit 9527 on
human airway epithelial cells and found pathological modes of action
common to the development of common lung diseases (Liu et al., 2016).
Their study suggests synergistic effects from the crude oil and dis-
persants relevant for understanding physical health outcomes and the
importance of respiratory protection for especially clean-up crews
working immediately after a spill. Ramesh also investigated the impacts
of the DWH oil, Corexit and oil-Corexit mixtures on the health of ro-
dents in a lab setting, with findings showing increased effects of the
mixture on altering white blood cells and platelet counts, and impacting
liver and kidney function (Ramesh et al., 2018). These types of studies
provide good mechanistic information. But integrating this type of in-
formation in a human health risk platform is however challenging
where more precise dose-response profiles are needed in terms of ha-
zard quotients and cancer slope factors for mixtures to understand
population effects at various and relevant exposure levels. Future stu-
dies should specifically evaluate the relationships among exposure
parameters, different OSCs, and adverse health outcomes.
3.5. Exposure and dose assessment algorithms and performing a full risk
assessment
Ultimately, mathematical models of OSC concentration distribu-
tions can be combined with human activity data, toxicity data, and
other parameters to estimate exposure, dose and health risks for po-
pulations. To illustrate how all of these concepts and factors are con-
sidered in an exposure-dose assessment for oil spill scenarios, here we
have some two example algorithms for daily doses estimates adapted
from the EPA (EPA, 2017).
Equation 1: Determining average daily dose from dermal contact
with contaminated soil
Cb ∙ABS∙AF∙SA∙EF∙ED∙CF
ADDdermal =
BW ∙AT (1)
where: ADDdermal = Absorbed average daily dose from dermal
contact
with contaminated sand (mg/kg-d)
Cb = Concentration of contaminant in sand at site (mg/kg)
ABS = Chemical specific absorption fraction (unitless)
AFsand = adherence factor for sand (mg/cm2)
SA = Surface are of skin that contacts soil (cm2/event-kg)
EF = Exposure frequency (events/yr)
ED = Exposure duration (yr)
CF = Conversion factor (kg/mg)
BW = Bodyweight (kg)
AT = Averaging time (d)
7
Marine Pollution Bulletin xxx (xxxx) xxxx
Equation 2: Determining average daily dose from ingestion of con-
taminated shellfish
Cs ∙IR∙EF∙ED
ADDingest , shellfish =
BW ∙AT (2)
where: ADDingest,shellfish = Potential average daily dose from ingested
shellfish
harvested from a contaminated site (mg/kg-d)
Cs = Concentration of chemical in shellfish (mg/g fish)
IR = Intake rate (g/d)
EF = Exposure frequency (d/yr)
ED = Exposure duration (yr)
BW = Bodyweight (kg)
AT = Averaging time (d)
The equations are simplistic algorithms, or snapshot, deterministic
equations that use point values. Eq. (1) is a daily dose computation
through the dermal route for say a child at a beach, and requires
knowing the concentration of the chemical in the sand, the adherence
of that sand to the skin, exposure frequency and duration, and the
absorption rate through skin. Various averaging times are used based
on the health risk endpoint. Eq. (2) is a daily dose determination which
is based upon the consumption of seafood. To compute the daily dose,
estimates are needed for the consumption rate of seafood (i.e. intake
rate), the concentration of a contaminant in that seafood, and the time
period over which seafood will be consumed. For both exposure sce-
narios illustrated by the equations data gaps exists for its parameters
across populations.
For cancer endpoints, the average daily dose (determined from al-
gorithms combining chemical concentration in the environment, with
human activity patterns and relevant exposure and dose parameters) is
multiplied by a cancer slope factor (where the slope factor represents
the toxicity of the chemical). Average daily doses are divided by
Maximum Risk Levels (MRL) to compute hazard quotients. Hazard
quotients greater than one suggest risks for non-cancer chronic and
acute effects. Again the MRLs for a particular chemical are based on the
toxicity studies on the compound. It is important to evaluate cancer and
non-cancer risks across routes of exposure (i.e., aggregate exposure)
and across chemicals (i.e., cumulative effects) in model platforms,
where the data is available and can be predicted. Natural variability
and uncertainly through Monte Carlo simulations should be conducted
using these equations and changing parameters to provide exposure-
dose-profiles, and population outcomes across chemicals and routes.
Monte Carlo also allows an evaluation of risks to high-end exposures
groups.
3.6. Statistical considerations for health risk models
There will be a wealth of data gathered and integrated into such a
modeling approach and where statistical considerations for interpreting
and presenting the risk assessment findings are needed. Basic statistical
analytical tools that can be utilized, but are not limited to, are SAS
(v9.3, SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC), Stata 13 (StataCorp, College Station
TX), and R (v3.1 www.r-project.org). In general, data generated should
be reviewed for outliers and out-of-range values, along with any in-
consistencies. Summary statistics (e.g., measures of central tendency,
location, and spread; frequency and cross-tabulation) can be generated
for all data collected. For activity data, the frequency and duration of
contacts for all locations and objects can be tabulated. For secondary
analysis (i.e., differences across locations, between sub-populations),
inferential techniques, such as t-tests and/or ANOVA if normality as-
sumptions are met and appropriate and non-parametric tests for non-
normally distributed observations (e.g., Wilcoxon, Mann-Whitney U,
and Kolmogorov Smirnov tests) can be applied. Multivariable linear
regression can be used to test associations between continuous out-
comes and multiple covariates of interest and to develop models of
OSCs as a function of location and environmental conditions. To
A. Ferguson, et al.
incorporate uncertainty within the risk assessment model, all inputs
should be explored, when applicable, and represented as an appropriate
probabilistic distribution using goodness-of-fit tests. Sensitivity analysis
can also be conducted across the modeled components to highlight
those inputs that have the greatest effect on outputs and contribute the
highest uncertainty. This allows for the identification of data gaps in
parameters of importance. Calculations of health risks to OSCs may, for
example, indicate that risks are higher for lower socio-economic groups
(based on income and education) as has been commonly found in other
environmental studies of risk (World Health Organization, 2010).
However, it may be challenging to incorporate other socio-demographic
factors in health risks assessments such as existing health conditions,
both physical and mental. Researchers can explore additional safety
factors to represent increased risks based on particular susceptibility
considerations.
3.7. Communicating exposure and health risks to communities in light of
uncertainties
There are challenges in communicating risks to the public, where
various communication methods and strategies might be needed. It
starts with a coordinated effort to relay early messages from the com-
mand center (i.e., center established for communications and cen-
tralized operations) and from local, state and federal agencies with the
input from community organizations that understand their audience
(Walker et al., 2014). Messages should be simple and clear on what is
known and what is not known.
In early time periods of an oil spill, there may be a need to close
beaches or halt seafood consumption to protect the most vulnerable
before adequate or full risk assessments are conducted. Great damage
can occur, however, to a community by closing a beach or halting
seafood consumption if no risk exists, and so more rapid risk assessment
methodologies are needed. In this context, there needs to be pre-de-
termined acceptable risks and acceptable safety factors given that
economic loss from unnecessary beach and industry closures due to the
possibility of escalating adverse psychosocial outcomes. More dynamic
oil spill and health risk models that predict the shoring and distribution
of contamination based on how that beach is typically used should be
developed where easy to understand visuals showing for example red
zones (i.e., high risks areas for different groups) can be appropriately
and effectively communicated to the public. A health risk model is also
only useful if it is valuable to those in an oil spill incident command
center, and at federal and state department responsible for commu-
nicating health risks to the public in real-time.
There are also difficulties in predicting and communicating health
risks appropriately given the uncertainties and variability in the data.
Community members and those at risk need simple ways to understand
these uncertainties. Building community health partners into oil spill
response mechanisms can facilitate the understanding by oil spill re-
sponse teams on how communities perceive and understand risks. This
can lead to the refinement of health risk models aiming to build a risk
communication component into the model. Developing earlier trust
between communities and oil spill response teams is advantageous to
tumultuous events that occur following any disaster event where a re-
sponsible party is to blame.
4. Discussion and conclusion
Communities live, work and play along our coastlines. Unique
economic and social dynamic interactions exist for Gulf communities
with respect to the oil industry, where economies largely rely on fishing
and tourism as well as oil exploration and refinement. The ways in
which society obtains energy drives industrialization and also mod-
ulates the economy (Costanza and Farley, 2007). Therefore, commu-
nities that indirectly or directly rely on jobs from oil exploration and
refinement are also most heavily impacted by the ways in which energy
8
Marine Pollution Bulletin xxx (xxxx) xxxx
is derived. In essence, those that are concerned about loss of jobs that
may follow a large spill, its environmental impacts and any adverse
public media surrounding the events, may also be those at most risk to
adverse public health exposures. Oil spill disasters, for example, nega-
tively impact tourism and fishing, and these effects grow and affect
surrounding communities. Therefore coastlines must be managed and
livelihoods appropriately restored (Pomeroy et al., 2006; Sales, 2009)
following a spill event, while ensuring public safety, and reducing ex-
posures.
Vulnerable and sensitive populations are most affected by any im-
pacts from disasters, where socio-economic disparities heavily influence
a community's ability to prepare, respond and recover (Kim et al., 2014;
Paton and Johnston, 2001; Wolanski and McLusky, 2011). A commu-
nity's resilience in the face of hardships is influenced by enabling,
predisposing, or reinforcing factors (i.e., determinants of health)
(Leichenko, 2011; Magis, 2010; Townshend et al., 2015). Measures of
resiliency and indicators of vulnerability (DasGupta and Shaw, 2015;
Jacob et al., 2013; Kirmayer et al., 2009; Morzaria-Luna et al., 2014;
Orencio and Fujii, 2013; Reams, 2012) that incorporate social and
ecological factors have been explored in the field (Adger, 2000; Adger
et al., 2005; Bathi and Das, 2016), however predominantly related to
impacts from storm events. Exploring the relevance of these factors for
oil spills, specifically related to physical health outcomes, will enhance
our understanding of a community's ability to respond and recover from
oil spill events. The application of specialized response programs might
benefit outcomes for specific communities (e.g., improved health care
systems, training for doctors on physical health outcomes from OSCs).
The physical impacts from oil spill disasters may also vary across
populations and groups. First responders and clean-up crews, for ex-
ample, might be more threatened by physical impacts (e.g., fire and
explosions, drowning) and chemical exposures (e.g., higher con-
centration of volatiles from recent oil release), whereas children might
be more affected by low exposures in sands (e.g., unusual play beha-
viors at beaches) and by stress (e.g., psychosocial impacts from dis-
placement). Other specialized groups such as fishermen and fish con-
sumers (e.g., loss of income and health impacted by oil contaminated
fish) and the elderly and immunocompromised (e.g., difficulty of
transportation and access to medications during displacement) must
also be considered. Ultimately there are challenges to deciphering and
responding to the varied physical and sometimes intertwined psycho-
social impacts (Gruebner et al., 2016; Morris et al., 2013), and devel-
oping strategies into our public health and medical infrastructure for
refined disaster preparedness and response (Brock et al., 2013; Redlener
and Reilly, 2012).
There is value therefore in also building predictive platforms to
measure and access physical health outcomes to oil spill contamination.
These platforms should be based upon fate and transport mechanisms
that can describe chemical concentration distributions along the coast.
The concentration information can be translated to human health risks
through an understanding of human activities and the toxicity (dose-
response) of the individual chemicals and mixtures of chemicals typi-
cally found in oil. Such platforms that simulate health risks can be used
by federal, state and local governments to prepare for planning and
remediation activities and for communicating risks to communities.
There will be challenges to building a robust and accurate predictive
platform for chemical risks to humans given the variability and un-
certainty in OSC concentrations and in potential exposures across po-
pulations. However, a comprehensive approach that relies on using a
number of validated tools and use of more accurate human activity
patterns will improve confidence in the predictive platform. Here we
have discussed aspects and factors for consideration in understanding
some of the current knowledge in the field and where potential gaps
may exist. Fig. 3 summarizes some of the data gaps for each link in the
human health risk model applied to looking at impact and exposures to
oil spill chemical as discussed. We look forward to progress in the field,
which will help protect groups and communities at risk, in light of our
A. Ferguson, et al.
Fig. 3. Data gaps in the health risk models for exposure to oil spills chemicals.
dependence on oil resources.
In the end, the goal is to answer questions such as, “What are at-risk
groups?”, “What do their activity patterns look like?”, “Are beach clo-
sures for a certain time following an oil event enough or overly ex-
aggerated in terms of adequate degradation times for the oil con-
taminants?”, “How will exposure time periods vary by the magnitude
and location of the spill event, likely weather events, type and typical
use patterns of the beach?” and “What human activities/processes need
to be altered or changed to better protect health?” We believe that a
modeling approach that is based upon a risk assessment platform can
provide insights into answering such questions, ideally prior to the next
oil spill.
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Alesia Ferguson: Conceptualization, Formal analysis, Funding
acquisition, Writing - original draft. Helena Solo-Gabriele:
Conceptualization, Formal analysis, Funding acquisition, Writing -
review & editing. Kristina Mena: Conceptualization, Funding ac-
quisition, Writing - review & editing.
Declaration of competing interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influ-
ence the work reported in this paper.
Acknowledgements
Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative (GoMRI), #G-231817
Appendix A. Supplementary data
Supplementary data to this article can be found online at https://
doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2019.110746.
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