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CQF June 2021 M3L5 Annotated
CQF June 2021 M3L5 Annotated
CQF June 2021 M3L5 Annotated
In this lecture. . .
• the names and contract details for many basic types of exotic
options
1
By the end of this lecture you will be able to
2
Introduction
3
Important features to look out for
• Time dependence
• Cashflows
• Path dependence
• Dimensionality
• Order
4
Bermudan options
5
1. Time dependence
6
When there is time dependence in a contract we might expect
7
2. Cashflows
• V (t−
i ) = V (t+
i ) + q.
8
16 drop in contract
value
14
12
10
8 discrete
cashflow
6
0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
9
That’s an example of a discrete cashflow.
10
3. Path dependence
11
Strong path dependence
12
Example:
The Asian option has a payoff that depends on the average value
of the underlying asset from inception to expiry. We must keep
track of more information about the asset price path than simply
its present position.
13
30
25
20
15
Asset
Continuous arithmetic average
10
14
Path dependency also comes in discrete and continuous vari-
eties depending on whether the path-dependent quantity is sam-
pled discretely or continuously.
15
30
25
20
15
Asset
Discrete arithmetic average
10
0
12-Nov-94 31-May-95 17-Dec-95 04-Jul-96 20-Jan-97
16
When there is strong path dependence in a contract we might
expect
17
Weak path dependence
For example, as long as the asset remains below 150, the con-
tract will have a call payoff at expiry. However, should the asset
reach this level before expiry then the option becomes worthless;
the option has ‘knocked out.’
18
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
Two paths having the same value at expiry but with completely
different payoffs.
19
• Weak path dependency does not add any extra dimensions.
(So a barrier option still only has two dimensions, S and t.)
20
4. Dimensionality
21
There are two distinct reasons why we need more dimen-
sions. . .
22
More dimensions caused by more sources of randomness
23
More dimensions caused by strong path dependency
We’ll see the theory of this later, but the effect on the governing
PDE is to sometimes add new terms that are not diffusive! (But
no new parameters!)
24
When the problem is of high dimensions we might expect
25
5. The order of an option
The basic, vanilla options are of first order. Their payoffs depend
only on the underlying asset, the quantity that we are directly
modeling. Other, path-dependent, contracts can still be of first
order if the payoff only depends only on properties of the asset
price path.
26
From a practical point of view, the compound option raises some
important modeling issues.
27
Schematic diagram of exotic option classification system:
Discrete
Cashflows
Continuous
Time dependence
Discrete
Weak
Continuous
Path dependence
Discrete
Strong
Continuous
Multi factor
Dimensionality
Strong path dependency
Order
Embedded decisions
28
Pricing methodologies
29
Pricing via expectations, Monte Carlo simulation
dS = rS dt + σS dX
for many paths, calculate the payoff for each path—and this
means calculating the value of the path-dependent quantity which
is usually very simple to do—take the average payoff over all the
paths and then take the present value of that average.
30
When and when not to use MC
• Some models (e.g. HJM) are built for MC, not easy (or
impossible) to write as PDE
31
When not to use MC:
32
Partial differential equations and finite differences
33
Let’s look at setting up the PDE approach for two examples, a
barrier option and an Asian option.
34
Barrier options
The critical level is called the barrier, there may be more than
one.
Barrier options come in two main varieties, the ‘in’ barrier option
(or knock-in) and the ‘out’ barrier option (or knock-out). The
former only have a payoff if the barrier level is reached before
expiry and the latter only have a payoff if the barrier is not
reached before expiry.
35
Example: An up-and-out call option. This has a call payoff at
expiration unless the barrier has been triggered some time before
expiration.
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
36
This is easily solved by Monte Carlo simulation or by finite-
difference methods.
37
150
140
130
120 V =0
110
100
90
80 V = Payoff
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 0.55 0.6 0.65 0.7 0.75 0.8 0.85 0.9 0.95 1
38
Asian options
39
The average used in the calculation of the option’s payoff can
be defined in many different ways.
40
How is the continuously sampled arithmetic average, for example,
defined mathematically?
30
25
20
15
Asset
Continuous arithmetic average
10
41
The final payoff is a function of
1 T
A= S(τ ) dτ.
T 0
But the running average, and hence our new state variable is
1 t
A= S(τ ) dτ.
t 0
42
A theory for strong path dependence
43
We will now see how to generalize the Black–Scholes analysis,
delta hedging and no arbitrage, to the pricing of many more
derivative contracts, specifically contracts that are strongly path
dependent.
44
Path-dependent quantities represented by an integral
dS = µS dt + σS dX.
45
• Let us suppose that this path-dependent quantity can be
represented by an integral of some function of the asset over
the period zero to T :
T
I(T ) = f (S, τ )dτ.
0
46
You might think that we need to model and remember S at every
single moment between now and expiration.
For the basic Asian option it turns out, as we shall see, that not
all of the past of the asset matters, only one ‘functional’ of it.
47
Prior to expiry we have information about the possible final value
of S (at time T ) in the present value of S (at time t).
t
I(t) = f (S, τ )dτ. (1)
0
48
• One can imagine that the value of the option is therefore not
only a function of S and t, but also a function of I; I will be
our new independent variable, called a state variable.
49
In anticipation of an argument that will use Itô’s lemma, we need
to know the stochastic differential equation satisfied by I.
50
Continuous sampling: The pricing equation
51
Set up a portfolio containing one of the path-dependent option
and short a number ∆ of the underlying asset:
Π = V (S, I, t) − ∆S.
∂V 2 2 ∂ 2V ∂V ∂V
dΠ = +1
2 σ S dt + dI + − ∆ dS.
∂t ∂S 2 ∂I ∂S
52
• Choosing
∂V
∆=
∂S
This change is risk free, and thus earns the risk-free rate of
interest r, leading to the pricing equation. . .
53
∂V 1 2 2 ∂ 2V ∂V ∂V
+ 2σ S 2
+ f (S, t) + rS − rV = 0
∂t ∂S ∂I ∂S
54
Example:
t
I= S dτ,
0
2
∂V 1 2 2∂ V ∂V ∂V
+ 2σ S 2
+ S + rS − rV = 0.
∂t ∂S ∂I ∂S
55
Similarity reductions
Unless we are very lucky, the value of the option must be calcu-
lated numerically.
56
The payoff for the continuously sampled arithmetic average strike
call option is
1 T
max S − S(τ ) dτ, 0 .
T 0
where
t
I= S(τ ) dτ
0
and
S
R = t .
0 S(τ ) dτ
57
In view of the form of the payoff function, it seems plausible that
the option value takes the form
S
V (S, I, t) = IW (R, t), with R = .
I
∂W 1 2 2 ∂ 2W ∂W
+ 2σ R 2
+ R(r − R) − (r − R)W = 0
∂t ∂R ∂R
1
W (R, T ) = max R − , 0 .
T
58
Path-dependent quantities represented by an updating rule
59
If the time between samples is small we can confidently use a
continuous-sampling model, the error will be small.
60
When path-dependent quantities are sampled discretely we have
summations instead of integrals.
61
Example: The discretely sampled Asian option
M
IM 1
AM = = S(tk ), (3)
M M k=1
62
This is simply a discrete version of our earlier continuous integral.
63
Example: The payoff for a discretely sampled arithmetic average
strike put is then
max (AM − S, 0) .
64
Must we remember every single S(tk ) to price the option? That
would be an M + 2-dimensional problem!
65
Can we write the expression for the running discretely sampled
average in a form that does not require us to remember every
single S(tk )?
Yes.
66
i
1
Ai = S(tk )
i k=1
So that
A1 = S(t1),
S(t1) + S(t2)
A2 = =1
2 A 1 + 1 S(t ),
2 2
2
S(t1) + S(t2) + S(t3)
A3 = =2 A
3 2 + 1 S(t ), · · · .
3 3
3
67
• This can be expressed as an updating rule
1 i−1
Ai = S(ti ) + Ai−1.
i i
68
Generalization
69
Another example: the Lookback option
We will see how to use this for pricing in the next section. But
first, another example.
70
30
25
20
15
Asset
Discrete maximum
10
71
If the payoff depends on the maximum sampled at times ti then
we have
Ii = max(S(ti ), Ii−1).
72
Discrete sampling: The pricing equation
The first step in the derivation is the observation that the stochas-
tic differential equation for I is degenerate:
dI = 0.
73
• So provided we are not on a sampling date the quantity I is
constant, the stochastic differential equation for I reflects
this, and the pricing equation is simply the basic Black–
Scholes equation:
2
∂V 1 2 2∂ V ∂V
+ 2σ S + rS − rV = 0.
∂t ∂S 2 ∂S
74
How does the equation know about the path dependency?
75
We introduce the notation t−
i to mean the time infinitesimally
before the sampling date ti and t+
i to mean infinitesimally just
after the sampling date.
V (S, Ii−1, t−
i ) = V (S, Ii , t+
i ).
V (S, I, t−
i ) = V (S, F (S(ti ), I, i), t+
i )
76
Examples:
77
The top right-hand plot is the S, M plane just after the sample
of the maximum has been taken.
Because the sample has just been taken the region S > M cannot
be reached, it is the region labeled ‘Unattainable.’
x
After x
Unattainable
S
x
x
Before
78
The algorithm for discrete sampling
79
• Working backwards from expiry, solve
∂V ∂ 2V ∂V
1 2 2
+ 2σ S + rS − rV = 0
∂t ∂S 2 ∂S
between sampling dates. Stop when you get to the time step
on which the sampling takes place.
80
When and when not to use PDEs/FD
81
When not to use PDEs/FD:
82