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Chapter I Random Variables and Probability Distribution
Chapter I Random Variables and Probability Distribution
Mathematics
Statistics and Probability
In the study of basic probability, you have learned that an experiment is any
activity which can be done repeatedly under similar condition. The set of all possible
outcomes of an experiment is called the sample space. You have also learned how
to mathematically list the possible outcome of a given experiment. In tossing a coin,
for instance, the possible outcomes are turning up a head or a tail.
This module will help you understand the process of illustrating random
variables as well as distinguishing between discrete and continuous random
variables. God bless and enjoy learning.
This Self - learning Kit (SLK) will help you understand the concepts on
Random Variables. As you go through this lesson, think of the following questions:
How will you distinguish random variables as to discrete or continuous? To find the
answer, perform each activity.
Before studying this module, take this pre - test to find out how much
you already know about the topic covered. Shade the letter of the correct
answer.
Well, what do you think about the pre-test? Do you think you did well?
Compare your answers with those in the Answer Key on the last part of this
module to find out.
If all your answers are correct, excellent! This shows that you already
know much about the topic. But you may still study this module to check what
you already know. Who knows, you might learn a few more new things as
well.
If you got a low score, it’s ok. This module was made to help you
understand important concepts about random variable that you can apply in
your daily life. If you study this module carefully, you will learn the answers to
all the items in the test and a lot more! Are you ready? Let’s begin your
journey.
Procedure/Learning Experience
Complete the following table. The first one is done for you.
Experiment Number X Possible Value of X
Two cards are drawn Sum of the numbers 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10,
from a deck. on the cards 11, 12, 13, 14, 15,
16, 17, 18, 19, 20
Roll a pair of dice Sum of the number of
dots on the top faces
Toss a pair of coin Number of tosses until
repeatedly the coin lands head
Height of individuals Height of your father
This time, you need to reflect on the following questions because it will
help you to understand the appropriate way on illustrating and classifying a
random variable. Answer the following questions:
1. How do you find the activity/?
2. Where you able to complete the table? If yes, how? If no, why?
4. In your own words how will you differentiate between discrete and
continuous random variables?
Discrete variable
A A Continuous variable
Is a numerical value associated with Has infinite numerical values
the desired outcomes. It is also either associated with any interval
a finite or infinite number of values on the number line system
but countable such as whole numbers without any gaps or breaks.
0,1,2,3.
From the example in the table above, Examples 1, 2, and 3 are all discrete
while example 4 is continuous.
This time, it’s your turn to shine. Answer the following as directed.
A. Classify as discrete or continuous random variable.
1. The speed of a bus
2. The number of voters favoring a candidate
3. The temperature in Quezon at noon time
4. The number of gold medals won by Quezon delegates in Regional
Sports Competition
5. The amount of paint used in repainting a building
2. Suppose that five cards are drawn from a deck, one at a time, without
replacement. Let X = the number of times a king is drawn from this
experiment. What are the possible values of X? Does the experiment
represent a discrete or a continuous random variable?
Look back and reflect on what you have done, then answer the
following questions.
You are now ready to take another chance to know where you are so
far. With your effort and determination I believe you can do it once again.
Good Luck.
Before studying this module, take this pre - test to find out how much
you already know about the topic covered. Shade the letter of the correct
answer.
1. If two coins are tossed, which is NOT a possible value of the
random variable for the number of heads?
A. 0 B. 1 C. 2 D.
3
2. Which of the following is NOT a true statement?
A. The value of a random variable could be zero.
B. Random variables can only have one value.
C. The probability of all the value of a random variable could be zero.
D. The sum of all the probabilities in a probability distribution is
always equal to one.
3. You decided to conduct a survey of families with two children.
You
are interested in counting the number of boys (out of 2 children)
in
each family. Is this a random variable? If it is, what are the possible
values?
A. Yes, it is a random variable and its value can be 1 or 2.
B. Yes, it is a random variable and its value can be 0, 1 or 2.
C. Yes, it is a random variable and its value can be 2 or 4.
D. No, it is not a random variable since it is not random.
How did you find the pre-test? Have you got the correct answers? If
yes, Very Good! But, if you failed to get it right don’t be hesitant to learn new
concepts because it only indicates that you need to ponder yourself by
exploring this module. By that, you will acquire the proper way on how to deal
with those situations. The next time you encounter those scenarios, things
would be easy for you.
Be focused on the details that will be presented and will be discussed in
this module in order for you to take into the proper procedure in answering
those problems.
Let us now discuss this Lesson.
Procedure/Learning Experience
Read and analyze the given situation below.
Illustration:
Let D represent the defective cell phone and N represents the non –
defective cell phone. If we let X be the random variable representing the
number of defective cell phones, show the values of the random variable X?
Complete the table below to show the values of the random variable.
Value of the Random Variable X
Possible Outcomes
(number of defective cell phones)
This time, you need to reflect on the following questions because it will
help you to understand the appropriate way on finding the possible values of a
random variable. Answer the following questions:
1. How do you find the activity?
2. Were you able to complete the table? If yes, how? If no, why?
3. Will you be able to find the values of the random variable? If
yes, how? If no, why?
4. In your own words how will you describe a random variable?
How do you find the possible values of a random variable?
Example 2.
Two balls are drawn in succession without replacement from a box containing
5 red balls and 6 blue balls. Let Z be the random variable representing the
number of blue balls. Find the values of the random variable Z.
Steps Solution
1. Determine the The sample space for this
sample space. Let experiment is:
B represent the blue S = {RR, RB, BR, BB}
ball and R represent
the red ball.
2. Count the number of
blue balls in each Possible Value of the
outcome in the sample Outcomes Random
space and assign this variable Z
number to this (Number of
outcome. blue balls)
RR 0
RB 1
BR 1
BB 2
This time, it’s your turn to shine. Answer the problem below.
The households of a local community were surveyed about the number
of occupants who are working. It was found out that 25 households have one
occupant working, 18 have two occupants working, 12 have three occupants
working, and 5 have four occupants working. Let X be the number of
occupants working from a randomly selected household. What are the
possible values for the random variable?
This time, it’s your turn to shine. Answer the following as directed.
You are now ready to take another chance to know where you are so far. With
your effort and determination I believe you can do it once again. Good Luck.
Before starting with the lesson of this module, answer the following
questions first. This will determine what you already know about the topic.
Direction: Shade the circle that corresponds to the letter of your answer.
Well, what can you say about the pre-test ? Do you think you did well ?
To find out if your answer is correct, compare your answers on the Answer
Key (This can be found at the end of the chapter).
Procedure/Learning Experience
a. List the sample space in the given experiment. Let D represent the
defective computer and N represent the non-defective computer. Count the
number of defective computers in each outcome in the sample space and
assign this number to this outcome. For instance , if you list NND the
number of defective computer is 1.
This time, you need to reflect on the following questions. Answer the
following questions:
2. The sum of all the probabilities of all values of the random variable
must be equal to 1. In symbol, we write it as Σ P(X) = 1
Probability Histogram
Histogram
Construct a histogram for this probability distribution. A histogram is a
bar graph. To construct a histogram for a probability distribution, follow these
steps.
Plot the values of the random variable along the horizontal axis.
a) In plotting the probabilities along the vertical axis, you can change
fractions to decimals (ex. ¼=0.25 and ½= 0.5)
Ex. 2.Write the probability mass function of the random variable X defined by
the outcomes of rolling a fair die and construct its corresponding histogram.
b) Histogram
Ex. 3.Let X be a random variable giving the number of girls in a randomly
selected three-child family. Assuming that boys and girls are equally likely ,
construct the probability distribution of X and its corresponding histogram.
X 1 5 7 8 9
P(X) 1/3 1/3 1/3 1/3 1/3
4.
X 1 3 5 7
P(X) 0.35 0.25 0.28 0.12
5.
Σ P(X)= 0.35 + 0.25 + 0.28 + 0.12 =1
This is a probability distribution because Σ P(X) = 1
Use the procedure that you have learned to solve the following
problems involving probability distribution of a discrete random variable.
3. Suppose that a coin is to be tossed four times, and let X represent the
number of tails that occur.
4.Using the sample space for rolling two dice , construct a probability
distribution for the random variable X representing the sum of the numbers
that appear.
X 0 2 3 4 6
P(X) 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/3 1/6
2.
X 1 3 5 7
P(X) 0.35 0.25 0.22 0.12
3.
Have you finished answering? Compare your answer to the Answer Key
(This can be found at the end of the chapter).
Look back and reflect on what you have done, then answer the
following questions.
1. Why should the sum of the probabilities in a probability distribution
always equal to 1?
You are now ready to take another chance to know where you are so far. With
your effort and determination I believe you can do it once again. Good Luck.
Direction: Shade the circle that corresponds to the letter of your answer.
A.8 B. 6 C. 4 D. 3
Before studying this module, take this pre- test to find out what you
already know about the topics covered. Please shade the letter of the correct
answer.
E (x) = μx = ∑ x − p (x)
2
B. E (x) = μx = ∑ x + p (x) D. E (x) = μx = ∑ x ·p (x)
2
B. σ x2 = ∑ (x − μ) ·p(x) ; for all possible values of x
2
D. σ x2 = ∑ (P (x) + μ) ·x ; for all possible values of x
3. Which statement is true about the standard deviation of a
discrete random variable?
A. It deals about the average or center of location
of the probability distribution.
B. It is obtained by multiplying the x values and its corresponding
probability.
C. It is the square root of the variance of discrete random
variable.
D. It is the summation of the product of the square of the
difference of x and its probability.
Procedure/Learning Experience
Based on the data above, observe, analyze and answer the following
questions:
1. Is the probability of x lies between 0 and 1?_____________________
●
This time, you need to reflect on the following questions because it will
help you to understand the appropriate way on illustrating and calculating the
mean, variance and standard deviation of a discrete random variable. Answer
the following questions:
1. How did you find the given activity?
2. Were you able to get the correct answer for each question? If yes, Very
Good! If not, which question/s you find difficult?
3. What mathematical skills help you to answer all 5 questions?
4. Do you think the concepts that you will acquire in this module would be
helpful to solve real-life problems?
E (x) = ∑ xP (x) .
Using the given data, multiply each x value by its probability and add the
results to get μ x.
Test Item, Probability ,
x·P (X)
x P (X)
0 0.03 0
1 0.05 0.05
2 0.12 0.24
3 0.30 0.90
4 0.28 1.12
5 0.22 1.10
E (x) = μx = ∑ x·P (X) = 3.41
So, it indicates that the expected value or mean of the random variable
is 3.41.
For question 5, you will need to understand the process on computing
the variance and the standard deviation of the discrete random variable. In
order to compute those, always remember this;
computed by first subtracting the mean from each possible x value to obtain
the deviations, then squaring each deviation and multiplying the result by the
probability of the corresponding x value, and then finally adding these
quantities. In symbol,
Applying the concepts from the activity given above, let us complete the
table below.
2 2
x P (X) x·P (X) x− μ (x − μ) (x − μ) ·P (X)
0 ¼ or 0.25 0 -1 1 0.25
1 ½ or 0.5 0.5 0 0 0
2 ¼ or 0.25 0.5 1 1 0.25
2
μx = ∑ x·P (X) = 1 ∑(x − μ) ·P (X) = 0.50
We have seen that the Expected value E(x) is just the average or mean
(µ) of random variable x. It’s sometimes called a “weighted average” because
more frequent values of X are weighted more highly in the average. It’s also
how we expect X to behave on-average over the long run. The mean of a
random variable X is a measure of the central location of the distribution of X.
If we are summarizing features of the distribution of X, it is clear that location
is not the only relevant feature. The second most vital feature is the spread of
the distribution.
where the sum is taken over all values of x for which P(x) > 0 but less than 1.
So, the variance of X is the weighted average of the squared deviations from
the mean μ, where the weights are given by the probability function P(x) of X.
This time, it’s your turn to shine. Answer the following problems.
1. The number of shoes sold per day at a retail store is shown in the table
below. Find the mean, variance, and standard deviation of this
distribution,
X 19 20 21 22 23
2. Suppose that a coin is to be tossed four times, and let X represents “the
number of TAILS that can come up”. Find the mean, variance, and
standard deviation of this distribution.
X 10 11 12 13 14
P(X) 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
3. The number of patients seen in the Emergency Room in any given hour
is a random variable represented by x. The probability distribution for x
is:
To verify whether you able to get the correct answer you may refer on
Answer Key provided.
X 0 1 2 3
P(X) 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3
A. 1.3 B. 1.8 C. 1.9 D. 2.3
Are you interested in buying lotto tickets? How about making a bet in a
roulette wheel or taking a chance in raffle tickets? Do you want to know how
much gain will you have if you will win in games of chance or how much
money will be wasted if you lost on a bet? Are you planning to invest money in
a life insurance company? If you had thought of the following questions this
module is for you.
In this module, you will learn how to compute the probability or the
chance of winning and losing. You will apply the formula for the expected
mean to solve real life problems involving mean and variance of probability
distributions. Good luck and happy learning☺.
This Self-Learning Kit (SLK) for Statistics and Probability will help you
understand the application of mean and variance of probability distribution. This
module has pre-test and post-test for you to track your progress as you go on with
the lesson. The pre-test will determine your prior knowledge of the lesson while the
post-test will measure your learning after you work with this module. Read carefully
the situations and examples given for you to understand the lesson well.
Before studying this module, take this simple test to determine what you
already know about the topic covered. Please shade the letter of the correct
answer.
x 674,500 500
1 1999
P(x) 2000 2000
x 675,000 500
1 1999
P(x) 2000 2000
B. D.
2. What is the mean or the expected value of item number 1?
(Refer to problem number 1)
A. - 162.5 B. -162.25 C. 162.25
D. 162.5
Procedure/Learning Experience
GAME OF CHANCE
Read the conversation below and answer the questions that follow.
Questions:
1. If you are Cardo, would you buy a raffle ticket? Why?
______________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________.
2. How would you describe Romulo as a friend?
______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
3. If Cardo decided to buy one ticket, what is the probability that he would win
the prize if 500 tickets were sold? ________ What is the probability that Cardo
will lose the bet?_________
4. How much money will Cardo gain if he wins the prize? _______. How much
money will be wasted if he will not win the prize? ____________________
5. If you were Cardo, will you buy a ticket? __________________________.
●
This time, you need to reflect on the following questions because it will
help you to understand the concept of the mean and variance of a discrete
random variable. Your honest answer would be a big help for the success of
your journey on this module.
1. How do you find the activity?
2. Were you able to answer all five questions? If yes, what helped you to
answer each question? If no, why were you not able to answer those
questions?
3. Have you experienced a situation where you need to decide to take a
chance? If yes, reflect on the factors which affect your decision.
4. What mathematical concepts or skills will help Cardo make his decision?
How important these concepts/skills for Cardo to decide and choose the best
option?
5. Do games of chance really help individuals with financial problems?
Explain.
Expected value is exactly what you might think, it means intuitively: the return
you can expect for some kind of action. It informs about what to expect in an
experiment "in the long run", after many trials.
In the study of probability distribution the mean of possible values of a discrete
random variable, given by their respective probabilities, is known as the
expected value, usually represented by E (x) or μX . To compute for the mean
of a discrete random variable, we use the formula
where xi is the value of the random variable for outcome i , μx is the mean of
random variable X, and P (xi ) is the probability that the random variable will be
outcome i .
Senior citizens of a particular barangay organize a Christmas raffle bonanza.
One thousand raffle tickets are sold for ₱50.00 each. Each one has an equal
chance of winning. The first prize is a 32-inch LED TV worth ₱10,000.00, the
second prize is an electric oven worth ₱5,000.00 and the third prize is a
grocery pack worth ₱2,500.00. Let X denotes the net gain from the purchase
of one ticket.
a. Construct the probability distribution of X.
b. Find the probability of winning any amount in the purchase of one ticket.
c. Find the expected value of X, then interpret.
Solution:
a. If a ticket is selected as the first prize winner, the net gain to the purchaser
is ₱10,000.00 less the ₱50.00 that was paid for the ticket, hence x1 = 10,000 –
50 = 9950. There is one such ticket, so the probability of gaining 9950 is one
1
out of one thousand tickets or 1000 which is equal to 0.001. If it is selected as
the second prize winner, the net gain to the purchaser is ₱5,000.00 less the
1
₱50.00, hence x2 = 5,000 – 50 = 4950 with a probability of 1000 or 0.001. If it
is selected as the third prize winner, the net gain to the purchaser is ₱2,500.00
1
less the ₱50.00, hence x3 = 2,500 – 50 = 2450 with a probability of 1000 or
0.001. But if the ticket was not selected to win the prize, the purchaser lost
₱50.00 that was paid for the ticket, hence x4 = – 50 with a probability of 997
997
out of 1000 tickets or 1000 which is equal to 0.997.
b. If we let W denote the event that a ticket is selected to win one of the
prizes. Using the table
The probability of winning the first prize is 0.001.
The probability of winning the second prize is 0.001.
The probability of winning the third prize is 0.001.
You may now go back to the problem of Cardo and apply what you have
learned from example 1.
To answer item number 3: If Cardo decided to buy one ticket, what is the
probability that he would win the prize if 500 tickets were sold? What is the
probability that Cardo will lose the bet?
Solution:
1
You need to compute for the probability of the two events. Cardo will have 500
499
or 0.002 chance to win the prize and 500 or 0.998 chance to lose it. It is also
clear that he will gain ₱15,000.00 less ₱100.00 or ₱14,900.00 if he wins the
prize and his ₱100.00 will be wasted if he will lose the prize.
The concept of expected value is also applicable to the insurance industry, as
illustrated by the example below.
Solution:
Let X denotes the net gain to the company from the sale of one policy. There
are two possibilities: the insured person lives the whole year or the injured
person dies before the year is finished. Applying the “income minus expenses”
principle, in the first case the value of X = 200 – 0; in the latter case it is 200 –
250,000 = - 249,800. Since the probability in the first case is 99.98% or 0.9998
and in the latter case is 1 – 0.9998 = 0.0002, the probability distribution for X
is:
x 200 -249,800
P (x) 0.9998 0.0002
Therefore
E (X) = ∑ xP (x) = 200 (0.9998) + (− 249, 800) (0.0002)
E (x) = 150
Interpretation:
Sometimes the company may lose a large amount of money on a policy, but
typically gains ₱200.00, which by the computation of E(X) gives a net of
₱150.00 on the average per policy sold.
Use the formula you have learned to solve the following real life problems
(games of chance) involving mean and variance of a discrete random variable.
Use the back of this page or a separate sheet of paper for your computations,
use of calculator would be a help. Enjoy and happy working ☺.
Two thousand tickets are sold for ₱20.00 each. One ticket will win ₱10,000.00,
two tickets will win ₱5,000.00 each and three tickets will win ₱1,000.00 each.
Let X denotes the net gain from the purchase of a randomly selected ticket.
b. Find the probability of winning any amount in the purchase of one ticket.
A roulette wheel in a fiesta carnival has the numbers 1 through 30. If you bet
₱5.00 you will have a chance to win a prepaid load worth ₱100.00. Find the
expectation if you play a bet.
Compare your answers with those found in the Answer Key on the last part of
this module. Did you get all items correct? Great! If you did, you learned the
lesson well. If you were not able to get the correct answer, review your
computations.
You are now ready to take another chance to know where you are so far. With
your effort and determination I believe you can do it once again. Good Luck.
A.
B.
C.
D.