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PES - Indonesia
PES - Indonesia
Indonesia is a country located in Southeastern Asia between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific
Ocean. It has a strategic location astride major sea lanes and is an archipelago of 17,508 islands,
some of which border Timor-Leste, Malaysia, and Papua New Guinea.
The population of Indonesia is more than 276 million and is ranked as number 4 in the world
rankings of population (152.6 per km2). The total are oof Indonesia is 1,904,569 sq km. It is teh
world’s largest island country and 14th largest by area.
President Jokowi was re-elected for a second five-year mandate in April 2019. His legislative
coalition – the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) - received strong support and
controls nearly 70% of the lower house (Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat), which could help to push
further his reform agenda that includes two major projects: the relocation of the capital to the
province of East Kalimantan and the Omnibus bill. The latter was passed and signed in October
2020 and could reform labor, tax, and other major laws in order to cut red tape and spur
investments into a post-pandemic economy. It received much disapproval from workers and
labor unions, who protested and claimed that these would reduce workers’ rights at a time when
the unemployment rate is increasing. On the external front, Indonesia’s stance towards China on
the South China Sea should continue to harden, as Beijing reiterated claims of historic rights on
areas that overlap Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone.
The business environment continued to improve in Indonesia over 2021, including simplified business
licensing. Recently implemented reforms are expected to increase labour market flexibility and improve the
investment climate. Moreover, the government plans to boost investment in transport infrastructure to close
infrastructure gaps in the coming years. Nevertheless, Indonesia continues to suffer from heavy bureaucracy,
widespread corruption and low levels of innovation.
Indonesia ranked 56th in the Index of Economic Freedom Ranking 2021, performing best in the
Government Spending and Financial Freedom pillars
In 2021, the country reported 15.2 commercial bank branches per 100,000 adults, lower than the
regional average
As of 2021, the central bank policy rate in Indonesia stood at 3.5%, slightly lower than regional
average of 3.8%, allowing reasonably good access to financing for businesses
8.8% of Indonesia’s population aged 15+ had higher education in 2021, while the labour force
participation rate stood at 69.9% of the working-age population in 2021
The country ranked 48th globally in the Logistics Performance Index 2021, recording the best
performance in the Timeliness of International Shipments and the Tracking and Tracing
Consignments pillars
Indonesia ranked 66th in the Network Readiness Index ranking 2021, pointing to moderate potential
for business innovations
GOVERNMENT SYSTEM
The government system is a republic; the chief of state and the head of government is the
president. Indonesia has a mixed economic system which includes a variety of private freedom,
combined with centralized economic planning and government regulation. Indonesia is a
member of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and the Association of Southeast
Asian Nations (ASEAN).
The key government branches can be broken down to Executive, Judicial, and Legislative.
The president heads the United Indonesia Cabinet and is also head of state, commander-in-
chief, and responsible for domestic governance, policy-making and foreign affairs.
The Mahkamah Agung (supreme court) is the highest level of the judicial branch. The
constitutional court rules on constitutional and political matters, while the judicial commission
oversees the judges.
The Legislative Branch
The Majelis Permusyawaratan Rakyat and the Dewan Perwakilan Rakya serve as the two
legislative bodies for Indonesia.
DIPLOMATIC ALLIANCES
bureaucratic customs procedures for both exports and imports prevail and are expected to remain a looming barrier for
cross-border trade in the short term.
Indonesia ranks relatively favourably in the Getting Credit pillar in the Ease of Doing Business (Doing Business) 2020
report, surpassing Asian giants including Japan, China and South Korea.
Bright outlook for investment: Over the first half of 2020, Indonesia’s foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows declined by
5.0% in nominal terms in 2019, compared to the same period the previous year, according to the Indonesia Investment
Coordinating Board (BKPM). In the upcoming years, the government plans to introduce regulatory changes to reduce
bureaucracy and increase the country’s openness to foreign investment, which are anticipated to boost investor interest
in Southeast Asia's largest economy. For instance, the Indonesian House of Representative passed the Jobs Creation Bill
(also known as the Omnibus Law) in October 2020, with an aim to increase labour market flexibility, boost investment,
and create new jobs by streamlining regulations and simplifying the licensing process.
Starting a business in Indonesia remains costly and time consuming: Indonesia improved its stance in Doing Business, yet
weaknesses still remained in some pillars in 2020. Indonesia ranked among the bottom third of countries globally in the
Starting a Business and Enforcing Contracts pillars in Doing Business 2020. Nevertheless, the country performed better in
the Getting Electricity, Protecting Minority Investors, and Resolving Insolvency pillars in 2020. Compared to regional
leaders, time spent to deal with, as well as the cost of, construction permits in Indonesia were the highest in 2020,
dragging the processes of opening businesses in the country behind. However, the cost of getting electricity, registering
property and enforcing contracts also stood more favourably compared to leading regional peers.
Poor Economic Freedom rankings: Indonesia offers a large market for potential investors; however, it lags behind the
largest Asian economies with low innovation capabilities, a rigid labour market, and a relatively unstable microeconomic
situation. In the Index of Economic Freedom, Indonesia stood behind Asian giants like India and China in terms of
government integrity, with the country’s rank in this pillar significantly worsening over 2017-2021.
Inflation is anticipated to grow and stay within the target range over 2021-2025, as economic activity recovers from the
COVID-19 pandemic and oil prices are expected to rise.
Unemployment is expected to remain above the rate for the regional average over the medium term, and is expected to
overtake the average rate for the world in 2025, when the rate will be 6.7%.
Over 2020, Indonesia’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 125 basis points to 3.8%, urging banks to increase
their lending to cushion the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and promote economic development. Low
inflation was another major reason for the interest rate cuts over the year. Below-target inflation may prompt BI to cut
policy rates further in the short term. With the central bank likely to retain its accommodative policy stance over the
medium term, in order to speed up economic recovery.
RCEP should help to expand regional trade: In November 2020, Indonesia joined the Regional Comprehensive Economic
Partnership (RCEP), the world’s largest trade agreement, which consists of 10 Southeast Asian countries, China, Japan,
South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. The pact is anticipated to help progressively reduce tariffs on industrial and
agricultural products, and contribute to post-COVID-19-pandemic economic recovery across Asia Pacific and Australasia.
Moreover, it will help Indonesia expand its market and integrate further into the global supply chain
65.8 id the Index of Economic Freedom - Grades each country on a scale of 0 to 100, based on
ten freedoms, with 100 representing the greatest amount of economic autonomy from
government intervention. Source: Heritage Foundation (2019)
A4-
According to The World Bank, the annual GDP at purchasing power parity (PPP) of Indonesia in 2020
was 3.3 trillion dollars (ranked 7th globally) with a growth rate of -2.07%. The services sector is the
economy's largest and accounts for 46.4% of GDP (2012), this is followed by industry (38.26%),
Manufacturing (19.88%) and Agriculture (13.7%).
Top industries - Petroleum and Natural Gas; Textiles; Automotive; Electrical Appliances
Vietnam’s main exports are Electrical Machinery (36.7%) followed by Apparel (11.4% combined) and
Footwear (7.2%). The top 3 export countries are the United States, China, and Japan while Canada is
ranked number 13.
However, Vietnam’s top imports are Electrical Machinery (30.7%), Industrial Machinery (9.25%), and
Plastics (6.26%). The top 3 import countries are China, South Korea, and Japan while Canada is ranked
number 24.
Two-way trade in goods amounted to C$4.8 billion in 2019, making Canada Vietnam’s 21 st largest trading
partner. Canada’s share of Vietnamese imports is 0.34%; however, its share of exports is somewhat
higher at 1.50% (GlobalEdge, 2022) .
“In 2015, Vietnam was Canada’s largest recipient of international assistance among ASEAN members,
receiving C$133 million in bilateral and multilateral aid. This is a significant increase from the previous
year in which total international assistance amounted to C$88 million” (GlobalEdge, 2021) Additionally,
there is a Free Trade Agreement that is active and ‘in force’ between Canada and Vietnam (KPMG
International, 2018).
Indonesia’s economy started to recover over 2021, underpinned by strong exports, robust industrial activity
and economic support measures. The economy is projected to expand at a faster pace in 2022, due to easing
COVID-19 curbs, stronger private consumption and investment as well as the global commodity boom.
However, pandemic-related uncertainty, ongoing supply constraints, global financial market volatility and
withdrawal of economic stimulus in Indonesia could hinder economic growth.
HEADLINES
Following real growth of 3.5% in 2021, Indonesia’s economy is expected to expand at an average
annual real rate of 4.8% over 2022-2040
Inflation in Indonesia is forecast to increase to 2.9% in 2022 from 1.6% a year ago
As Indonesia’s exports increased by 40.5% and imports rose by 39.0% during 2021, the country
remained a net exporter
Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into Indonesia rebounded over 2021
Public debt in Indonesia rose to 40.5% of GDP in 2021 from 36.6% in 2020, compared to the regional
average of 94.7%
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Indonesia’s economy started to recover over 2021, underpinned by strong exports, robust industrial activity
and economic support measures. The economy is projected to expand at a faster pace in 2022, due to easing
COVID-19 curbs, stronger private consumption and investment as well as the global commodity boom.
However, pandemic-related uncertainty, ongoing supply constraints, global financial market volatility and
withdrawal of economic stimulus in Indonesia could hinder economic growth.
HEADLINES
Following real growth of 3.5% in 2021, Indonesia’s economy is expected to expand at an average
annual real rate of 4.8% over 2022-2040
Inflation in Indonesia is forecast to increase to 2.9% in 2022 from 1.6% a year ago
As Indonesia’s exports increased by 40.5% and imports rose by 39.0% during 2021, the country
remained a net exporter
Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into Indonesia rebounded over 2021
Public debt in Indonesia rose to 40.5% of GDP in 2021 from 36.6% in 2020, compared to the regional
average of 94.7%
PROSPECTS
https://www-portal-euromonitor-com.proxy.bib.uottawa.ca/portal/analysis/tab
The central bank is expected to shift towards policy normalisation in 2022 as inflation picks up
Due to subdued domestic demand and fuel subsidies that capped the increase in energy prices, inflation in
Indonesia decreased from 1.9% in 2020 to 1.6% in 2021, standing below the central bank’s 2.0%-4.0% target
range. Among major groups of consumer goods and services, communication services witnessed the largest
price decline in 2021, while alcoholic drinks and tobacco products experienced the largest price increase.
However, the inflation is set to pick up over 2022, driven by ongoing supply constraints, rising commodity
prices and stronger domestic demand. Moreover, Indonesia will increase the value-added tax (VAT) from 10%
to 11% starting April 2022 and to 12% in 2025. Over the next five years, the country’s inflation rate is
anticipated to rise gradually, reaching 3.5% by 2026.
Over 2021, Bank Indonesia (BI) retained its accommodative policy stance in order to speed up the economic
recovery. In 2021, BI decided to cut its seven-day reverse repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 3.5%, the
lowest since the rate was introduced in 2016. Moreover, as the total money supply in Indonesia rose by 7.3%
year on year in real terms, the amount of money in circulation on a per capita basis stood at USD511 in 2021,
in comparison to the average of USD5,350 in Asia Pacific. In January 2022, the central bank kept the key
policy rates unchanged to support economic recovery and maintain currency and financial market stability.
However, the central bank plans to shift towards monetary policy normalisation in 2022 and raise gradually
the reserve requirement ratios (RRR) for banks starting from March 2022.
The country’s exports reached a record high in 2021 due to global commodity boom
Following a dip in 2020, the strong recovery in global demand boosted international merchandise trade,
which surpassed the pre-pandemic levels globally in 2021. The value of goods exported by Indonesia surged
by 40.5% over 2021 to record-high levels, supported by rising global commodity prices. During the year,
exports of goods made up 19.5% of Indonesia’s GDP, which was below the average of 24.4% in Asia Pacific.
Mineral products remained the largest exports category in Indonesia in 2021, accounting for 17.1% of the
country’s total exports value. China remained Indonesia’s main exports partner, with 27.3% of all goods
exported to China during the year. In January 2022, Indonesian authorities have placed a temporary ban on
coal exports to shore up domestic coal supplies and prevent energy shortages in the country.
In 2021, the value of commodity imports in Indonesia rose by 39.0%. Imports of machinery and electronic
equipment witnessed the strongest surge over the year in absolute value terms, which was also the major
imports category, accounting for 29.2% of the total. China remained the largest Indonesia’s imports partner
in 2021, supplying 39.2% of all merchandise imported by Indonesia in value terms. In January 2022, the
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) came into force, creating a new Asia-Pacific trading
bloc between the ten ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) countries, Australia, China, Japan, New
Zealand and South Korea. The RCEP is expected to boost Indonesia’s economic development and promote
stronger trading relationships between members through the effect of tariff reductions and simplification of
trading rules.
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TAXES
Indirect Taxes
Social Factors affecting Indonesia
DEMOGRAPHY
SOCIAL CHALLENGES
Appendix