PROBABILITY

PROBABILITY IS A BRANCH OF MATHEMATICS THAT DEALS WITH CALCULATING THE LIKELIHOOD OF A

GIVEN EVENT'S OCCURRENCE, WHICH IS EXPRESSED AS A NUMBER BETWEEN 1 AND 0. AN EVENT WITH A
PROBABILITY OF 1 CAN BE CONSIDERED A CERTAINTY: FOR EXAMPLE, THE PROBABILITY OF A COIN TOSS
RESULTING IN EITHER "HEADS" OR "TAILS" IS 1, BECAUSE THERE ARE NO OTHER OPTIONS, ASSUMING THE
COIN LANDS FLAT. AN EVENT WITH A PROBABILITY OF .5 CAN BE CONSIDERED TO HAVE EQUAL ODDS OF
OCCURRING OR NOT OCCURRING: FOR EXAMPLE, THE PROBABILITY OF A COIN TOSS RESULTING IN "HEADS"
IS .5, BECAUSE THE TOSS IS EQUALLY AS LIKELY TO RESULT IN "TAILS." AN EVENT WITH A PROBABILITY
OF 0 CAN BE CONSIDERED AN IMPOSSIBILITY: FOR EXAMPLE, THE PROBABILITY THAT THE COIN WILL LAND
(FLAT) WITHOUT EITHER SIDE FACING UP IS 0, BECAUSE EITHER "HEADS" OR "TAILS" MUST BE FACING UP.

IMPORTANT TERMS:

1. PROBABILITY – THE MEASURE OF THE CHANCE THAT AN EVENT WILL OCCUR AS A RESULT OF THE
EXPERIMENT

2. EXPERIMENT – A REPEATABLE PROCESS THAT YIELDS A RESULT OR OBSERVATION

3. OUTCOME – RESULT OF A SINGLE TRIAL OF EXPERIMENT

4. SAMPLE SPACE – SET OF ALL THE DIFFERENT POSSIBLE OUTCOMES OF AN EXPERIMENT

EX.: A. FLIPPING A COIN ONCE; S = {H, T}
B. OBSERVING THE GENDER OF 3 NEWBORN CHIDREN; S = {BBB, GGG, BGG, BBG, GBB, GGB, GBG,
BGB}

5. EVENT – AN EVENT THAT EITHER HAPPENS OR FAILS TO HAPPEN AS A RESULT OF AN EXPERIMENT

EX.: FLIPPING A COIN SEVERAL TIMES, THE EVENT IS GETTING A CERTAIN NUMBER OF HEAD

6. SIMPLE EVENT – IS AN EVENT WHERE ONE EXPERIMENT HAPPENS AT A TIME AND IT WILL BE
HAVING A SINGLE OUTCOME.
EX.: TOSSING A COIN

7. COMPOUND EVENT – IS THE OCCURRENCE OF TWO OR MORE EVENTS TOGETHER.

EX.: FLIPPING A COIN AND ROLLING A DIE

8. INDEPENDENT EVENTS – ARE EVENTS WHERE THE PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE OF ONE EVENT
IN NO WAY AFFECTS THE PROBABILITY OF THE OTHER EVENT OCCURING.
EX.: FLIPPING A COIN AND ROLLING A DIE

9. DEPENDENT EVENTS – ARE EVENTS WHERE THE PROBABILITY OF ONE EVENT OCCURING
INFLUENCES THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE OTHER EVENT
EX.: DRAWING 2 CARDS FROM A DECK OF CARDS (DRAWING AN ACE ON THE 1ST DRAW WILL CHANGE THE
PROBABILITY OF DRAWING ANOTHER ACE ON TH 2 ND DRAW)

10. CONDITIONAL EVENT – DEPENDENT EVENT THAT OCCURS ONLY IF ANOTHER EVENT (ON WHICH
IT DEPENDS) HAS OCCURRED.

11. DISJOINT EVENTS/MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS – EVENTS WHICH HAVE NO OUTCOME IN

COMMON EX.: OUTCOMES OF A SINGLE COIN TOSS IS EITHER HEADS OR TAILS BUT NOTH BOTH

12. IMPOSSIBLE EVENTS – EVENTS WHICH NEVER HAPPENS IN A RANDOM EXPERIMENT

EX.: DRAWING A RED BALL FROM A BOX WHICH ONLY CONTAINS WHITE BALLS

SET THEORY
 TERM SYMBOL MEANING DIAGRAM

SET OF ALL OUTCOMES IN THE

COMPLEMENT OF AN
𝐴′ SAMPLE SPACE THAT ARE NOT
EVENT A
CONTAINED IN A

SET OF OUTCOMES THAT ARE

𝐴∪𝐵
UNION OF EVENTS EITHER IN A OR IN B OR IN BOTH
(A or B)
EVENTS

SET OF OUTCOMES THAT IN BOTH A

INTERSECTION OF 𝐴∩𝐵 AND B
EVENTS (A and B) NOTE: WHEN 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 0, A AND B ARE
SAID TO BE DISJOINT EVENTS

PROBABILITY USING VENN DIAGRAM

EXAMPLE:

FREEZY'S ICE CREAM STAND IS TESTING OUT TWO NEW FLAVORS, PUMPERNICKEL BRICKEL AND DANDY
COTTON CANDY. A POLL CONDUCTED BY FREEZY'S SHOWED THAT 32 CUSTOMERS LIKED PUMPERNICKEL
BRICKEL, 58 CUSTOMERS LIKED DANDY COTTON CANDY, 12 LIKED BOTH FLAVORS, AND 22 LIKED NEITHER
FLAVOR. WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY THAT ONE OF THOSE CUSTOMERS SELECTED AT RANDOM WOULD
LIKE A) DANDY COTTON CANDY? B) PUMPERNICKEL BRICKEL?

PUMPERNICKEL DANDY COTTON

BRICKEL CANDY

20 12
46
22

46 12 58 29
𝐴) 𝑃(𝐷𝐶) = + = 𝑂𝑅
124 124 124 62

20 12 32 8
𝐵) 𝑃(𝑃𝐵) = + = 𝑂𝑅
124 124 124 31

PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT

THE PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT E, IS DENOTED BY P(E) WHICH IS EQUAL TO THE NO. OF GOOD OUTCOMES,
m. OVER THE SIZE OF THE SAMPLE SPACE, N.
𝒎
𝑷(𝑬) =
𝑵

EXAMPLE:

1. WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY OF GETTING AN EVEN NUMBER WHEN YOU ROLL A FAIR DIE?

𝑆 = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
3 1
𝑃(𝐸𝑉𝐸𝑁) = = 𝑂𝑅 0.5 𝑂𝑅 50%
6 2

2. TOSS 3 FAIR COINS. WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY OF EXACTLY ONE HEADS?

𝑆 = {𝐻𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇𝑇}

3
𝑃(𝐸𝑋𝐴𝐶𝑇𝐿𝑌 1 𝐻𝐸𝐴𝐷𝑆) = 𝑂𝑅 0.375 0𝑅 37.5%
8
 FOR n DISTINCT OBJECTS AND WE WANT TO MAKE k SELECTIONS, THEN THE NUMBER OF POSSIBLE
OUTCOMES IS 𝑛𝑘 .

3. A FAIR COIN IS TOSSED 10 TIMES. WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY THAT WE GET EXACTLY 5 HEADS?
𝑆 = 210
10𝐶5 63
𝑃(𝐸𝑋𝐴𝐶𝑇𝐿𝑌 5 𝐻𝐸𝐴𝐷𝑆) = 10 = 𝑂𝑅 0.2461 𝑂𝑅 24.61%
2 256

4. A BAG CONTAINS 100 BALLS, 50 OF THEM ARE RED AND 50 BLUE. SELECT 5 BALLS AT RANDOM.
WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY THAT 3 ARE BLUE AND 2 ARE RED?

𝑆 = 100𝐶5
50𝐶3 ∙ 50𝐶2
𝑃(3 𝐵𝐿𝑈𝐸 𝐴𝑁𝐷 2 𝑅𝐸𝐷) = = 0.3189 𝑂𝑅 31.89%
100𝐶5

5. SHUFFLE A STANDARD DECK OF PLAYING CARDS AND DEAL 13 CARDS TO EACH OF THE 4
PLAYERS. WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY THAT:

A. EACH PLAYER GETS AN ACE?

𝑆 = 52𝐶4
134
𝑃(𝐸𝐴𝐶𝐻 𝑃𝐿𝐴𝑌𝐸𝑅 𝐺𝐸𝑇𝑆 𝐴𝑁 𝐴𝐶𝐸) = = 0.1055
52𝐶4

B. ONE PERSON WILL GET ALL FOUR ACES?

4𝐶1 ∙ 13𝐶4
𝑃(𝐴𝐿𝐿 𝐹𝑂𝑈𝑅 𝐴𝐶𝐸𝑆) = = 0.0106
52𝐶4

RULES OF PROBABILITY:

I. FOR ANY EVENT A, 𝟎 ≤ 𝑷(𝑨) ≤ 𝟏

II. THE SUM OF THE PROBABILITIES OF ALL POSSIBLE OUTCOMES IS 1.

III. SUBTRACTION RULE OF PROBABILITY

THE PROBABILITY THAT EVENT A WILL OCCUR IS EQUAL TO 1 MINUS THE PROBABILITY THAT
EVENT A WILL NOT OCCUR.

𝑃(𝐴) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴′ )

EXAMPLE: ACCORDING TO STANFORD UNIVERSITY’S BLOOD CENTER, THESE ARE THE PROBABILITIES OF
HUMAN BLOOD TYPES IN THE UNITED STATES:

BLOOD TYPE O A B AB
PROBABILITY 0.44 0.10 0.04

[A] A PERSON IS CHOSEN AT RANDOM, WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE PERSON HAVING BLOOD TYPE A?

𝑃(𝐴) = 1 − [𝑃(𝑂) + 𝑃(𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐴𝐵)]

𝑃(𝐴) = 1 − (0.44 + 0.10 + 0.04) = 0.42

[B] WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY THAT A RANDOMLY CHOSEN PERSON CANNOT DONATE BLOOD TO
EVERYONE?

(NOTE: A PERON WITH BLOOD TYPE O CAN DONATE TO EVERYONE)

𝑃(𝑂′ ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑂)

𝑃(𝑂′ ) = 1 − 0.44 = 0.56

 IV. MULTIPLICATION RULE OF PROBABILITY

FOR DEPENDENT EVENTS: 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) ∙ 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴)

FOR INDEPENDENT EVENTS: 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) ∙ 𝑃(𝐵)

EXAMPLE:

1. AN URN CONTAINS 6 RED MARBLES AND 4 BLACK MARBLES. TWO MARBLES ARE DRAWN
WITHOUT REPLACAMENT FROM THE URN. WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY THAT BOTH OF THE
MARBLES ARE BLACK?

𝑃(𝐵𝐿𝐴𝐶𝐾 ∩ 𝐵𝐿𝐴𝐶𝐾) = 𝑃(𝐵𝐿𝐴𝐶𝐾) ∙ 𝑃(𝐵𝐿𝐴𝐶𝐾|𝐵𝐿𝐴𝐶𝐾)

4 3 2
𝑃(𝐵𝐿𝐴𝐶𝐾 ∩ 𝐵𝐿𝐴𝐶𝐾) = ∙ = 𝑂𝑅 0.1333
10 9 15

2. YOU HAVE A DECK OF PLAYING CARDS AND A BAG OF 6 MARBLES (2 BLUE, 3 GREEN, 1 WHITE).
WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY OF DRAWING AN ACE FROM THE DECK OF CARDS AND A BLUE
MARBLE FROM THE BAG?

𝑃(𝐴𝐶𝐸 ∩ 𝐵𝐿𝑈𝐸 𝑀𝐴𝑅𝐵𝐿𝐸) = 𝑃(𝐴𝐶𝐸) ∙ 𝑃(𝐵𝐿𝑈𝐸 𝑀𝐴𝑅𝐵𝐿𝐸)

4 2 1
𝑃(𝐴𝐶𝐸 ∩ 𝐵𝐿𝑈𝐸 𝑀𝐴𝑅𝐵𝐿𝐸) = ∙ = 𝑂𝑅 0.0256
52 6 39

3. IF YOU ROLL A DIE, WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY OF IT BEING ODD AND LESS THAN FIVE?

2 1
𝑃(𝑂𝐷𝐷 ∩< 5) = 𝑂𝑅 𝑂𝑅 0.3333
6 3

V. ADDITION RULE OF PROBABILITY

𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)

FOR MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS/DISJOINT EVENTS: 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0

EXAMPLE:

1. A BAG CONTAINS 20 MARBLES: 3 RED, 6 GREEN, 4 BLUE, 2 WHITE, AND 5 YELLOW. ONE BALL IS
SELECTED AT RANDOM, WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY THAT:

A. THE BALL IS EITHER RED OR GREEN

𝑃(𝑅𝐸𝐷 ∪ 𝐺𝑅𝐸𝐸𝑁) = 𝑃(𝑅𝐸𝐷) + 𝑃(𝐺𝑅𝐸𝐸𝑁)

3 6 9
𝑃(𝑅𝐸𝐷 ∪ 𝐺𝑅𝐸𝐸𝑁) = + =
20 20 20

B. THE BALL IS NOT BLUE

𝑃(𝐵𝐿𝑈𝐸′) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐵𝐿𝑈𝐸)
4 16 4
𝑃(𝐵𝐿𝑈𝐸′) = 1 − = 𝑂𝑅
20 20 5

C. THE BALL IS EITHER RED OR WHITE OR YELLOW

𝑃(𝑅𝐸𝐷 ∪ 𝑊𝐻𝐼𝑇𝐸 ∪ 𝑌𝐸𝐿𝐿𝑂𝑊) = 𝑃(𝑅𝐸𝐷) + 𝑃(𝑊𝐻𝐼𝑇𝐸) + 𝑃(𝑌𝐸𝐿𝐿𝑂𝑊)

3 2 5 10 1
𝑃(𝑅𝐸𝐷 ∪ 𝑊𝐻𝐼𝑇𝐸 ∪ 𝑌𝐸𝐿𝐿𝑂𝑊) = + + = 𝑂𝑅
20 20 20 20 2

2. A SINGLE CARD IS CHOSEN AT RANDOM FORM A DECK OF PLAYING CARDS. WHAT IS THE
PROBABILITY OF CHOOSING A KING OR CLUBS?

𝑃(𝐾𝐼𝑁𝐺 ∪ 𝐶𝐿𝑈𝐵𝑆) = 𝑃(𝐾𝐼𝑁𝐺) + 𝑃(𝐶𝐿𝑈𝐵𝑆) − (𝑃𝐾𝐼𝑁𝐺 ∩ 𝐶𝐿𝑈𝐵𝑆)

4 13 1 16 4
𝑃(𝐾𝐼𝑁𝐺 ∩ 𝐶𝐿𝑈𝐵𝑆) = + − = 𝑂𝑅 𝑂𝑅 0.3077
52 52 52 52 13
 3. IF YOU ROLL TWO DICE, WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE SUM BEING EVEN OR GREATER THAN 8?

1 2 3 4 5 6

1 2 3 4 5 6 7
𝑃(𝐸𝑉𝐸𝑁 ∪> 8) = 𝑃(𝐸𝑉𝐸𝑁) + 𝑃(> 8) − 𝑃(𝐸𝑉𝐸𝑁 ∩> 8)
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
18 10 4 24 2
𝑃(𝐸𝑉𝐸𝑁 ∪> 8) = + − = 𝑂𝑅 𝑂𝑅 0.6667
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 36 36 36 36 3

4 5 6 7 8 9 10

5 6 7 8 9 10 11

6 7 8 9 10 11 12

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

THE PROBABILITY THAT EVENT B OCCURS IS DEPENDENT ON WHETHER OR NOT EVENT A HAS OCCURRED.
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) =
𝑃(𝐴)

EXAMPLE:
1 1 1
1. LET A AND B BE EVENTS WITH (𝐴) = , 𝑃(𝐵) = , AND 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = .
3 2 6

[A] FIND 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵)

1
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) 1
𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = = 6 =
𝑃(𝐵) 1 3
2
[B] FIND 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴)
1
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) 1
𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) = = 6 =
𝑃(𝐴) 1 2
3

2. IF A SINGLE FAIR DIE IS ROLLED, FIND 𝑃(3|𝑃𝑅𝐼𝑀𝐸).

𝑃(3 ∩ 𝑃𝑅𝐼𝑀𝐸)
𝑃(3|𝑃𝑅𝐼𝑀𝐸) =
𝑃(𝑃𝑅𝐼𝑀𝐸)
1
1
𝑃(3|𝑃𝑅𝐼𝑀𝐸) = 6 =
5 5
6

3. A SIX – SIDED DIE IS TOSSED. WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY OF GETTING A TWO IF:

[A] IT SHOWS AN EVEN NUMBER

1
𝑃(2 ∩ 𝐸𝑉𝐸𝑁) 1
𝑃(2|𝐸𝑉𝐸𝑁) = = 6 =
𝑃(𝐸𝑉𝐸𝑁) 3 3
6
[B] IT SHOWS A NUMBER LESS THAN 5
1
𝑃(2 ∩< 5) 1
𝑃(2| < 5) = = 6 =
𝑃(< 5) 4 4
6

[C] IT DOES NOT SHOW A 6

1
𝑃(2 ∩ 6′) 1
𝑃(2|6′) = = 6 =
𝑃(6′) 5 5
6
4. SUPPOSE THAT IN A CERTAIN PART OF THE WORL, IN A 50 – YEAR PERIOD, THE PROBABILITY OF A
MAJOR PLAGUE IS 0.39, THE PROBABILITY OF A MAJOR FAMINE IS 0.52, AND THE PROBABILITY OF
BOTH OS 0.15. WHAT IS THE PROBABILITYOF A FAMINE GIVEN THAT THERE IS A PLAGUE?

𝑃(𝐹𝐴𝑀𝐼𝑁𝐸 ∩ 𝑃𝐿𝐴𝐺𝑈𝐸) 0.15

𝑃(𝐹𝐴𝑀𝐼𝑁𝐸|𝑃𝐿𝐴𝐺𝑈𝐸) = = = 0.3846
𝑃(𝑃𝐿𝐴𝐺𝑈𝐸) 0.39

5. FIVE HUNDRED PEOPLE USED HOME TEST FOR HIV. AND THEN UNDERWENT MORE CONCLUSIVE
HOSPITAL TESTING. THE ACCURACY OF THE HOME TEST WAS EVIDENCED IN THE FOLLOWING
TABLE:

HOSPITAL TESTING RESULT

HOME TEST RESULT
HIV HEALTHY
POSITIVE 35 25
NEGATIVE 5 435

[A] WHAT IS THE PREDICTIVE VALUE OF THE TEST? THAT IS, WHAT THE PROBABILITY THAT A
PERSON HAS HIV AND TESTS POSITIVE?
35
𝑃(𝐻𝐼𝑉 ∩ 𝑇 + ) = = 0.070
500
[B] WHAT IS THE FALSE – POSITIVE RATE? THAT IS, WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY OF TESTING POSITIVE
GIVEN THAT THE PERSON DOES NOT HAVE HIV?
25
+ |𝐻𝐼𝑉′)
𝑃(𝑇 + ∩ 𝐻𝐼𝑉 ′ ) 500
𝑃(𝑇 = = = 0.0543
𝑃(𝐻𝐼𝑉′) 460
500
[C] WHAT IS THE SENSITIVITY IF THE TEST? THAT IS, WHAT IS TH PROBABILITY OF TESTING POSITIVE
IF THAT PERSON HAS HIV?
35
+ |𝐻𝐼𝑉)
𝑃(𝑇 + ∩ 𝐻𝐼𝑉) 500
𝑃(𝑇 = = = 0.8750
𝑃(𝐻𝐼𝑉) 40
500
[D] WHAT IS THE SPECIFICITY OF THE TEST? THAT IS, WHAT IS THE PROBABILITYOF TESTING
NEGATIVE GIVEN THAT THE PERSON DOES NOT HAVE HIV?
435
− |𝐻𝐼𝑉′)
𝑃(𝑇 − ∩ 𝐻𝐼𝑉 ′ ) 500
𝑃(𝑇 = = = 0.9457
𝑃(𝐻𝐼𝑉 ′ ) 460
500

6. THE PROBABILITY OF RAINING ON A SUNDAY IS 0.07. IF TODAY IS SUNDAY, FIND THE

PROBABILITY OF RAIN TODAY.

𝑃(𝑅𝐴𝐼𝑁 ∩ 𝑆𝑈𝑁𝐷𝐴𝑌) 0.07

𝑃(𝑅𝐴𝐼𝑁|𝑆𝑈𝑁𝐷𝐴𝑌) = = = 0.49
𝑃(𝑆𝑈𝑁𝐷𝐴𝑌) 1
7

7. THE GIVEN TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE DATA OF HIGH – SCORERS IN A CLASS OF 30.

HIGH – SCORER NOT

GIRL 3 8
BOY 6 13

FIND THE PROBABILITY THAY A PERSON WILL BE A HIGH – SCORER IF THAT PERSON IS A GIRL.

3
𝑃(𝐻𝐼𝐺𝐻 − 𝑆𝐶𝑂𝑅𝐸𝑅 ∩ 𝐺𝐼𝑅𝐿) 30 3
𝑃(𝐻𝐼𝐺𝐻 − 𝑆𝐶𝑂𝑅𝐸𝑅|𝐺𝐼𝑅𝐿) = = =
𝑃(𝐺𝐼𝑅𝐿) 11 11
30