01.05.

2011

HOT CLASH

In the Middle East and Northern Africa some events are happening. People who want liberties and
rights rebelled to their governments. These events were pleased and also scared people and the
states. Because people think that these are the beginning of democratization but also can create new
conflicts and conflicts can transform clashes, maybe wars. It is possible, but not an imagination. The
rebellion which started as a conflict between people and conflict can transform clash between The
Shi’a and Sunni or Muslims and Christians.

Do you know Lawrence of Arabia? He was a British soldier and spy. Because of his activities, Arabs
rebelled against Ottoman Empire. But they couldn’t get what they want and stayed under influence
of firstly European states such that Britannia and France after that the USA. Because of that they
weren’t powerful economically, militarily and politically, other states determined their destinies and
became the men of established order. The institutions and political culture weren’t constituted
although Egypt Kingdom was established as independent from the UK in 1922 and Egypt (Arab)
Republic was founded in 1952 after Egypt became independent from the UK. One of the reasons is
that Egypt has ruled by authoritarian dictators. Because of this, it is difficult for Egypt to pass
democracy, I think, according to the author.

If a state wants to pass democracy, it must constitute needful institutes. These institutes are political
institutions like an assembly, education level, political culture, consciousness related to voting and
political and social order. If we consider the conditions of democracy in Turkey, I don’t think that
there is really a democracy in Turkey. This is not our topic; but we must here say that if Turkey wants
to be a good example for the countries in Northern Africa and Middle East and not to occur these
events in its territory, it must leave old type politics it followed from the past until now and do
something for in the name of democracy. Otherwise these events will start in Turkey as well and it
will improve as the conflicts between Turkish and Kurdish, Sunni and Shi’a, government (AKP) and
people; later the army interfere and work finishes. Can’t I say that Turkey won’t stay between these
clashes?

The leadership of Saudi Arabia and the leadership of Iran are a complicated situation. Iran doesn’t
have good relationships with the USA and Europe. If the UN imposes an embargo on Iran because of
its nuclear programme, this situation can affect its leadership position. Perhaps we must ask this
question: if the UN imposes an embargo on Iran, which states do diplomatic relationships with Iran
go on and which states do the relationships with Iran stop? The answer of this question will give us
the position of Iran. The situation of Saudi Arabia is completely different from Iran. Saudi Arabia
doesn’t have enough powers to be leader in Middle East. Thank to the relationships of Saudi Arabia
with the USA it can do leadership maybe; but this leadership is a cloth and actual leader is the USA.

In conclusion, the events in northern Africa is now living in Middle East and the struggles between
people and their governments are about transforming the struggles between Sunni and Shi’a, Muslim
and Christians. If it realize, the peace in the Middle East is spoiled irreversible. Here other states have
responsibility as Turkey as. Of course, we must count big fours: the USA, Europe, Iran and Saudi
Arabia. Especially without Iran and Saudi Arabia this work doesn’t walk. If Iran deactivates by being
imposed an embargo by the UN, the USA and Europe and also anything peaceful isn’t done for the
events in the Middle East, civil turmoil can occur and in the atmosphere of this chaos a lot of people
can die and much more people have to migrate.

ERAY ARIK

2008636009

The Department of International Relations