December 21, 2015

Mumbai

Organised dairies, which grew at 22%, set to do even better

Processing capacity to rise 40% in 3 years through ~Rs 15,000 crore investments

India’s organised dairy segment, which has been growing at a pacy 22% annually in the last five fiscals
(2011-15) compared with 17% for the entire industry, will do even better over the next three years as rising
disposable income and increasing quality consciousness lead to greater consumer preference for branded
milk and milk products.

And as the consumer shift accelerates, the revenue share from organised segment could rise to 25% by
fiscal 2018 from 19% in fiscal 2015. The organised segment racks up revenues of Rs 75,000 crore at
present.

CRISIL has ratings on 84 firms comprising 60% of the organised dairy capacity in India.

On their part, organised dairies have been sharpening focus on value-added products, investing in brand-
building and scaling up operations, particularly in processing and milk-collection infrastructure. Management
of logistics costs and secured procurement is crucial to profitability and cash flows in the business.

CRISIL expects the organised channel to incur a capital expenditure (capex) of ~Rs 15,000 crore by fiscal
2018 to shore up milk processing capacity to ~1,050 lakh litre per day -- or a significant 40% jump over fiscal
2015. These expansions will be strategically planned to ensure there is geographical diversification that
strengthens milk procurement.

Says Anuj Sethi, Director, CRISIL Ratings, “CRISIL’s analysis of a combination of procurement
penetration and milk production helped identify the key capex geographies for the organised
players. It shows that northern India, especially Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana -- which are big
on milk production but have low organised dairy penetration -- will witness the highest capacity
addition. Also, nearly a third of the overall capex is expected to be undertaken by the largest
domestic dairy player, Gujarat Co-operative Milk Marketing Federation (which sells under the ‘Amul’
brand), through its member co-operatives”.

CRISIL expects large organised dairies to manage their growth phase well. But small and medium players,
which are more dependent on liquid milk, could lose market share because of stiff competition from local
and large organised players. Some mid-sized firms are expected to benefit from increasing funding support
from private equity.

Increasing revenue diversity with healthy demand across segments has resulted in improvement of business
profile and hence, credit quality for dairy players, in the past three fiscals, which is also reflected in higher
number of rating upgrades compared with downgrades.

Says Akshay Chitgopekar, Director CRISIL Ratings, “Over the next 3 years, credit metrics across
organised dairy firms are likely to moderate from their current comfortable levels as debt levels rise
to support increased capex. While better contribution through rising share of value-adds will partly
mitigate the impact of higher debt, stabilisation of the ramped up capacities will be critical.”

December 21, 2015 1 www.crisil.com

 Media Contacts Analytical Contacts Customer Service Helpdesk

Tanuja Abhinandan Anuj Sethi Timings: 10.00 am to 7.00 pm

Media Relations Director - CRISIL Ratings Toll free number: 1800 267 1301
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Email:
tanuja.abhinandan@crisil.com

Jyoti Parmar Akshay Chitgopekar

Media Relations Director - CRISIL Ratings
CRISIL Limited Phone:+91 22 40978309
Phone: +91 22 3342 1835 Email: akshay.chitgopekar@crisil.com
Email: jyoti.parmar@crisil.com

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About CRISIL Ratings

CRISIL Ratings is India's leading rating agency. We pioneered the concept of credit rating in India in 1987. With a tradition
of independence, analytical rigour and innovation, we have a leadership position. We have rated over 75,000 entities, by far
the largest number in India. We are a full-service rating agency. We rate the entire range of debt instruments: bank loans,
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Last updated: August 2014

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