Pakistan s energy crisis: short and long-term solutions

By M. Sharif
Pakistan is in the grip of a serious energy crisis that is affecting all sectors
of the economy and the various segments of the society. As the situation stands
to-day, there are hardly any immediate solutions to resolve the issue. A change
of attitude and a change of life style is needed at the national level which sh
ould be triggered by the ruling elite and followed by all segments of the societ
y that have access to electricity. At best there could be some short and long-te
rm solutions to the crisis but they need immediate planning and execution with a
n enormous investment. None of the previous rulers of the country solved the iss
ue due to which the energy crisis kept on increasing regularly.
State of energy resources
Pakistan has a deficit of fossils or hydrocarbons sources of energy and to cover
up the deficit, it depends upon importing crude oil at an enormous cost from it
s meager forex reserves. The need of crude oil is on an increase because of an i
mproved life style which has necessitated the use of vehicles and cars for trans
portation. Import of oil at around $110 per barrel, increases the trade deficit
and the current account deficit. It makes fiscal management a difficult task whi
ch affects the government as well as the people.
Contrary to the deficit of fossils or hydrocarbon resources, Pakistan is rich in
hydro resources of energy. According to an estimate the country has enough reso
urces to generate approximately 40000 mw of hydro-electricity. However, presentl
y it only generates 8000 mw of electricity against an installed capacity of 1132
7 mw. In addition the country can generate electricity with the help of wind and
solar energy which has not yet been exploited to meet the energy deficit. Nucle
ar energy is yet another source of energy and at present PAEC produces 472 mw. I
t is far less than what PAEC should have been producing to meet the energy defic
it.
Three major electricity generation agencies presently operate in the country. Th
ey have a total installed capacity of around 19522 mw. Their installed capacitie
s are as follows: WAPADA: 11327 mw; KESC: 1756 mw and Independent Power Producer
s (IPPs), 5977 mw. PAEC produces 472 mw as stated earlier. Thermal power account
s for 64 per cent of the total installed capacity, hydro-electricity accounts fo
r 33 per cent and nuclear power plants account for 3 per cent. Thermal power is
mostly produced by burning either natural gas or imported oil. The country is ye
t to switch over to coal from the indigenous source of energy that is estimated
to be the third largest in the world with a reserve of 33.0 trillion tons.
The Energy market has been changing according to the demands of power consumptio
n. The Prices of energy raw materials also kept changing. According to an analys
is, in the fiscal year 1990-91 hydropower accounted for 45 per cent of all elect
ricity produced in the country but it was reduced to 26 per cent with a 10-year
period. The share of thermally generated electricity increased from 54 per cent
to 71 per cent during the same period. Needs of most of the commercially used oi
l are met by imports whose prices have skyrocketed during past five years and as
such the cost of power generation through oil has increased.
Power consumption because of increasing needs of industry, agriculture and house
holds has been on the rise. According to an estimate, between the period of 1990
and 2003 the total consumption increased by 84 per cent, from 31twh to 57twh. P
resently, an annual average increase of 7 per cent has been postulated. The ener
gy sector, in which the government has a greater role to play, will have to work
hard to make up for the existing deficit and to meet the growing demand.
The reason behind the crisis
An important question in the midst of ongoing power shortage crisis, being raise
d is that why the energy crisis looms on our head after an interval of around 10
-15 years despite the fact that statistics about energy resources, demand and co
nsumption are well articulated. They are also readily available to planning comm
ission and other federal and provincial governments. The answer is simple; poor
management, lopsided priorities and lack of accountability on part of those who
stay at the helm of affairs.
In the early 90s, the power crisis had started emerging and the political govern
ment that was mandated to govern the country was faced with the issue of power c
risis. The government had to resolve the crisis by engaging almost 19 Independen
t Power Producers (IPP). 19 IPP projects were initiated with an installed capaci
ty of 3158 mw and investment of $4.0 billion and by March 2003 the installed cap
acity was at 2728 mw that has reached to 5977 mw through expansion. Till 2005, s
upply of electricity produced through different power generating units was surpl
us to demand by around 450 mw but since then demand has been outstripping supply
because there was practically no additional power generation.
The government did not anticipate that there would be an increase in demand of e
lectricity and it was its responsibility to arrange the supply according to the
demand. Consequently, during summer, 2007, supply of electricity ran short of 25
00 mw. It is being anticipated that this year the deficit between supply and dem
and could be as high as 3000 mw. By the end of year 2010, the deficit could be a
s large as 5500 mw. There are no immediate solutions to generating additional po
wer through any source because a unit takes at least 2-3years to establish prope
rly. More than 5 years is required to construct a hydroelectric dam and the inve
stment is enormous. This crisis has literally paralysed the construction industr
y, badly affected agriculture and made life hell for the citizens. In view of ex
isting ground realities and constraints to address power crisis by generating el
ectricity within a short span of a few months, the need to make the best use of
existing power generation by taking conservation measures at individual, communi
ty and national level are essential. These measures if implemented with commitme
nt and honesty of purpose can help a lot of people to over come negative implica
tions of power crisis.
Energy conservation measures
Energy conservation or efficient use of electricity is what is needed at this cr
ucial time. There are three major users of electricity and they need to be educa
ted and motivated to play their role in energy conservation. The three stakehold
ers are: industrial sector, transport sector and domestic/household sector. Each
sector needs to be dealt separately to high light the efficacy of conserving en
ergy.
The Industrial sector is consuming the largest amount of energy in the country.
It consumes around 45 per cent of the total commercial energy. Most of them are
concentrated in a few industrial areas close to or within large cities such as K
arachi, Lahore and other comparatively smaller cities. Industrial units are not
energy efficient and management practices also need improvement to make efficien
t use of electricity. A study carried out by the ENERCON reveals that efficient
use of electricity by the industrial sector could save up to 23 per cent of elec
tricity. The focus on energy conservation is on the improvement of steam distrib
ution systems, air conditioning, refrigeration and modernising and revamping ene
rgy efficient combustion processes and controls.
The transport sector is the second largest consumer of energy. According to an E
NERCON study, this sector consumes 28 per cent of total national consumption of
energy. This could be reduced by 10 per cent if car owners alone were to economi
se on consumption of fuel and kept their car engines fully tuned up. The sector
has the potential to be 20 per cent energy-efficient if railways, shipping and a
viation are included. One of the visible constraints that keeps the industrial a
nd transport sector away from being energy-efficient is the lack of observing en
ergy conservation rules and regulations which are already laid down by the gover
nment. Their focus is perhaps on short-term gains that run contrary to national
interest.
The third largest consumer of electricity is domestic/household sector that cons
umes around 21 per cent of electricity produced in the country. According to a s
tudy this sector could be efficient by 30 per cent by avoiding wasteful habits o
f consuming energy such as keeping markets fully lit etc. A positive development
that has so far taken place in this sector is gradual shifting over to use of e
nergy savers. Similarly energy could be saved by minimum use of air conditioners
. The entire household should be well-aware of energy consumption.
To achieve meaningful results about conservation of energy the charity should st
art from home, that is, the ruling elite should take the initiative and set exam
ple to conserve energy as a national imperative for emulation by other segments
of the society. If conservation measures stated above were to be implemented par
tially, it would go a long way in addressing the energy crisis immediately witho
ut any additional cost.
Measures by the government
The outgoing government had belatedly addressed the power crisis by hyping up th
e construction of mega hydro-electric dams including politically controversial K
alabagh dam without going into details about their feasibility and sources of in
vestment. The new government has a real big challenge of addressing the energy c
risis at hand. Its first priority should be to implement immediate measures that
might bring some relief to the public. It should also immediately embark upon t
he programmme of expansion of generating capacities that has been laid down by t
he previous government under Vision 2025 programme.
It envisions increasing existing power generating capacity by 10000 mw by 2010 a
nd around 35000 mw by 2025 at an enormous cost of $35 billion to be shared by th
e government and private sector. The share of different sources of energy is sti
pulated to be as follows: hydro-electricity: 22563 mw, new gas fired plants: 468
0 mw, coal fired plants: 4350 mw, nuclear plants: 1800 mw and finally 1500 mw fr
om renewable energy resources. It is certainly an ambitious plan that needs to b
e implemented on priority basis with changes that the new government might like
to make within its national policy framework.
Future and alternative sources of energy
Some experts argue that the world is heading towards a global energy crisis due
to a decline in the availability of cheap oil and recommend a decreasing depende
ncy on fossil fuel. This has led to increasing interest in alternate power/fuel
research such as fuel cell technology, hydrogen fuel, biomethanol, biodiesel, Ka
rrick process, solar energy, tidal energy and wind energy. To date, only hydroel
ectricity and nuclear power have been significant alternatives to fossil fuel (s
ee Future energy development), with big ecological problems (residues and water
spending). Hydrogen gas is currently produced at a net energy loss from natural
gas, which is also experiencing declining production in North America and elsewh
ere. When not produced from natural gas, hydrogen still needs another source of
energy to create it, also at a loss during the process. This has led to hydrogen
being regarded as a 'carrier' of energy rather than a 'source'.
There have been alarming predictions by groups such as the Club of Rome that the
world would run out of oil in the late 20th century. Although technology has ma
de oil extraction more efficient, the world is having to struggle to provide oil
 by using increasingly costly and less productive methods such as deep sea drill
ing, and developing environmentally sensitive areas such as the Arctic National
Wildlife Refuge. The world's population continues to grow at a quarter of a mill
ion people per day, increasing the consumption of energy. The per capita energy
consumption of China, India and other developing nations continues to increase a
s the people living in these countries adopt western lifestyles. At present a sm
all part of the world's population consumes a large part of its resources, with
the United States and its population of 296 million people consuming more oil th
an China with its population of 1.3 billion people.
Efficiency mechanisms such as Negawatt power can provide significantly increased
supply. It is a term used to describe the trading of increased efficiency, usin
g consumption efficiency to increase available market supply rather than by incr
easing plant generation capacity.
Conclusion
It hardly needs to be emphasised that electricity is the lifeline of national ec
onomy and the people at large. The Economy and public life practically come to a
halt because of the load shedding. The existing crisis can be addressed by the
government by taking prompt measures. There is hardly any room for neglect or de
lay.