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Probability: Probability Is Used in The Case of Random Experiments Where The Possible Results or
Probability: Probability Is Used in The Case of Random Experiments Where The Possible Results or
Probability: Probability is used in the case of random experiments where the possible results or
outcomes of the experiment are known to us, but the occurrence of a particular result at a given
point of time is unknown.
(iv) Complement of an event: It consists of those elements which are not there in the event, but
are present in the sample space. Complement of an event A is denoted as A bar.
(vi) Mutually exclusive events: Two events X and Y are called as mutually exclusive if they do
not have any elements in common. Common elements are given by the intersection of two events
which is denoted by the symbol ∩. Here P (X ∩ Y) = 0
(vii) Union of two events: This comprises of elements which are there in first event X alone or
second event Y alone or in both.
(viii) Mutually exhaustive events: Two events A and B are called as mutually exhaustive if their
elements, when combined, give us the entire sample space. Combining the elements of two events
gives the union of the two events. These are elements which are either present in the first event or
second event or both. Here P(AUB) = 1
Addition theorem: This theorem gives us a relation between union and intersection of two events.
Let the number of elements in event A be a, number of elements in event B be b and c be the
number of elements common to the events A and B. Let n be the elements of the sample space.
We consider an example.
Q1. The probability that a contractor gets a maintenance contract is 0.6 and the probability that he
gets an electrical contract is 0.45. What is the probability that he gets both the contracts when the
probability of getting at least one of them is 0.52?
(i) Marginal Probabilities: These are probabilities of single events or their complements. E.g.
P(A), P(A bar), P(B), P(B bar)
(ii) Joint Probabilities: These are the probabilities of intersection between two events or their
complements. e.g. P(A∩B), P( A∩B bar), P(A bar ∩B), P(A bar∩B bar)
(iii) Conditional probabilities: In this case, we find the probability of one event on the condition
that another event has already taken place. i.e. one event is dependent on another event. For e.g.
P(A/B) means that we have to find the probability of event A given that event B has taken place.
P(B/A) means that we have to find the probability of event B given that event A has taken place.
Similarly, we can find P(A/B bar), P(A bar/B), P(A bar/B bar), P(B bar/A), P(B/A bar), P(B bar/A
bar) etc.
Male (A) 12 20 32
Female (A bar) 15 14 29
Total 27 34 61
P(A) = 32/61, P(A bar)= 29/61, P(B) = 27/61, P(B bar) = 34/61
P(A∩B) = 12/61, P( A ∩ B bar) = 20/61, P(A bar∩ B) = 15/61, P(A bar ∩ B bar) = 14/61
P(A/B) = 12/27, P(B/A) = 12/32, P(A/B bar) = 20/34, P(A bar/B)=15/27, P(A bar/B bar) = 14/34,
P(B bar/A bar) = 14/29
P(A∩B) = 12/61
These two results of the multiplication theorem can be used along with the addition theorem.
Q3. P(A)= 0.6, P(B)= 0.7, P(AUB) = 0.8. Find P(A∩B), P(A/B) and P(B/A)
Solution: First, we use the addition theorem to find P(A∩B) and then using the multiplication
theorem, we can find P(A/B) and P(B/A)
Independent events: If events A and B are independent, then P(A/B) = P(A) and P(B/A) = P(B)
So both the results of the multiplication theorem converge into one result
Q4. A husband and wife appear in an interview for 2 vacancies for the same post. The probability of
husband’s selection is 1/7 and that of wife’s selection is 1/5. Assuming these as independent events, what
is the probability that (i) both of them will be selected (ii) only one of them will be selected (iii) none of
them will be selected (iv) at least one of them are selected
(ii) P(A). P(B bar) + P(A bar). P(B) = P(A) . (1-P(B)) + (1-P(A)). P(B) = 1/7 x 4/5 + 6/7 x 1/5 =
4/35 + 6/35 = 10/35 = 2/7
OR
Bayes’ Theorem: If A1, A2 and A3 are 3 events which have something in common with another event B,
then P(B) = P(A1∩B) + P(A2∩B) + P(A3∩B)
The Bayes’ theorem can be used along with the multiplication theorem to find the values of probabilities.
Prior and Posterior Probabilities: Prior probabilities are those whose values are available to us based on
past data before an experiment or incident has taken place. Posterior probabilities are those whose values
we find out after the experiment or incident has taken place.
= =
=
= =
=
=
Total = P(B)=
Q5. The probability that an employee at a company uses illegal drugs is 0.08. The probability
that an employee is male is 0.62. Assuming that these events are independent, what is the
probability that a randomly chosen employee is a male drug user?
Solution: P(A) = 0.08, P(B) = 0.62
Q6. The probability that a consumer will be exposed to an advertisement for a certain product by
seeing a commercial on television is 0.04. The probability that the consumer will be exposed to
the product by seeing an advertisement on a bill board is 0.06. The two events, being exposed to
commercial and being exposed to the bill board ad, are assumed to be independent.
a. What is the probability that the consumer will be exposed to both advertisements?
b. What is the probability that he or she will be exposed to at least one of the ads?
(b) P(TV U Bill board) = P(TV) + P (Billboard) – P( TV ∩ Billboard) = 0.04 + 0.06 – 0.0024
= 0.0976
Q7. An economist believes that during periods of high economic growth, the US dollar appreciates
with probability 0.70, in periods of moderate economic growth, the dollar appreciates with 0.40,
and during periods of low economic growth, the dollar appreciates with a probability of 0.20.
During any period of time, the probability of high economic growth is 0.30, the probability of
moderate growth 0.50 and probability of low economic growth is 0.20. Suppose the dollar has
been experiencing appreciation during the present period, what is the probability we are
experiencing a period of high economic growth.
Let B be the event that dollar appreciates. Let A1be the event that there is high economic growth,
A2 is the event that there is moderate economic growth. Let A3 be the event that there is low
economic growth.
P( B/A1) = 0.7, P(B/A2) = 0.4, P(B/A3) = 0.2, P(A1) = 0.3, P(A2) = 0.5, P( A3) = 0.2
We have to find P ( A1/B) = ?
Ans: Mutually exclusive events do not have any elements in common while independent events
do not depend on each other. For mutually exclusive events, P( A∩ B ) = 0 , while for independent
events, P( A∩ B) = P(A). P(B)
Q9. A company has 140 employees, of which 30 are supervisors. Eighty of the employees are
married, and 20% of the married employees are supervisors. If a company employee is randomly
selected, what is the probability that the employee is married and is a supervisor?
Solution: Let S be the event that an employee is a supervisor, M is the event that the employee is
married.
Q10. Patients who suffer from Kidney damage usually require transplantation. 20% donors are
people who agree to donate for a payment which is illegal. 30% of donors are those who are brain
dead and willingly agree and rest of the donors are immediate family members. Kidneys donated
do not always suit the patient and patient’s body rejects and thus he dies. 25% are cases of such
rejections if taken from donors who take payment, 10% rejections happen with cases where the
kidney is taken from brain dead patients, and 2% rejections happen even if the kidney is donated
from immediate family members.
If it is known that a randomly chosen patient who has had kidney transplant has died, what is the
probability that the kidney was purchased illegally.
Solution: Let A1 be the event that donor takes payment, A2 is the event that donor is a brain dead
patient and A3 is the event that donor is a family member. Let B be the event that patient’s body
rejects the kidney and he dies.
P(A1) = 0.2, P(A2) = 0.3, P(A3) = 0.5, P(B/A1) = 0.25, P(B/A2) = 0.1, P(B/A3) = 0.02, We have
to find P(A1/B)
P(A1∩B) = P(B/A1)P(A1) = 0.2 x 0.25 = 0.05, P(A2∩B) = P(B/A2) P(A2) = 0.1 x 0.3 = 0.03
Q11. Three machines producing 40%, 35% and 25% of the total output are known to produce with
defective proportion of items as: 0.04, 0.06, and 0.03 respectively. On a particular day, a unit of
output is selected at random, and is found to be defective. What is the probability that it was
produced by the second machine?
Solution: A1 is the event that first machine produces the output, A2 is the event that second
machine produces the output and A3 is the event that third machine produces the output. B is the
event that the item is defective.
P(A1) = 0.4, P(A2) = 0.35, P(A3) = 0.25, P(B/A1) = 0.04, P(B/A2) = 0.06, P(B/A3) = 0.03
P(A1∩B) = P(A1) P(B/A1) = 0.4 x 0.04 = 0.016, P(A2∩B) = P(A2) P(B/A2) = 0.35 x 0.06 =
0.021,
Solution: Let A1 be the event that first bag is selected, A2 is the event that second bag is selected
and A3 is the event that third bag is selected. B is the event that a red ball is selected.
P(A1) = 1/3, P(A2) = 1/3, P(A3) = 1/3, P(B/A1) = 6/10, P(B/A2) = 4/10, P(B/A3) = 5/10
P(A1/B) = ?
P(A1∩B) = P(A1)P(B/A1) = 1/3 x 6/10 = 1/5, P(A2∩B) = P(A2) P(B/A2) = 1/3 x 4/10 = 2/15
Q13. 25% of the applicants for a job are known to overrate themselves in their CV. While going
for an interview, 50% of those who overrate themselves somehow manage to get selected and only
20% of those who do not overate themselves manage to get themselves selected for the job . Given
that the person got selected for the job what is the probability that he had overrated his CV.
Solution: Let A1 be the event that an applicant overrates himself/herself and let A2 be the event
that applicant does not overrate themselves. Let B be the event that the applicant is selected.
P(A1∩B) = P(A1).P(B/A1) = 0.25 x 0.5 = 0.125, P(A2∩B) = P(A2). P(B/A2) = 0.75 x 0.2 = 0.15
Solution: Here A1 is the event that the person is authorized, A2 is the event that the person is not
authorized, B is the event that the person is refused admission and B bar is the event that the person
is admitted.
P(A1) = 0.95, P(A2) = 0.05, P(B/A1) = 1/1000, P(B bar /A2) = 1/1000000, P(A1/B) = ?
Use Bayes theorem and multiplication theorem, i.e. prior and posterior probabilities.
Q15. If P (A∩B) = 0.3, P(A) = 0.6, P(B) = 0.4, can we say that events A and B are independent
events. Give justification for your answer.
Ans: Since P(A∩B) ≠ P(A) . P(B) , hence events A and B are not independent.
Q16. Three machines are used to produce a product. Machine 1 produces 20% of the product,
machine 2 produces 35% of product and the rest are produced using machine 3. Each machine
sometimes produces defective products. Probability of producing defective goods using machine
1 is 0.05, probability of defective goods given it is produced by machine 2 is 0.02 and probability
of defective goods using machine 3 is 0.01. If a random item is selected and is found to be
defective, what is the probability that it was produced in machine 1.
Solution: Let A1, A2 and A3 be the events that product is made by machines 1, 2 and 3
respectively.
P(A1) = 0.2, P(A2) = 0.35, P(A3) = 0.45, P(B/A1) = 0.05, P(B/A2) = 0.02, P(B/A3) = 0.01
P(A1∩B) = P(A1).P(B/A1) = 0.2 x 0.05 = 0.01, P(A2∩B) = P(A2). P(B/A2) = 0.35 x 0.02 = 0.007,
Q17. Three machines producing 40%, 35% and 25% of the total output are known to produce with
defective proportion of items as: 0.04, 0.06, and 0.03 respectively. On a particular day, a unit of
output is selected at random, and is found to be defective. What is the probability that it was
produced by the second machine?
Solution: A1 is the event that first machine produces the output, A2 is the event that second
machine produces the output and A3 is the event that third machine produces the output. B is the
event that the item is defective.
P(A1) = 0.4, P(A2) = 0.35, P(A3) = 0.25, P(B/A1) = 0.04, P(B/A2) = 0.06, P(B/A3) = 0.03
P(A1∩B) = P(A1) P(B/A1) = 0.4 x 0.04 = 0.016, P(A2∩B) = P(A2) P(B/A2) = 0.35 x 0.06 =
0.021,
(b) If the component is found to be defective, what is the probability that it was supplied by (i) A
(ii) B (iii) C?
Solution: A1 is the event that first machine produces the output, A2 is the event that second
machine produces the output and A3 is the event that third machine produces the output. B is the
event that the item is defective.
P(A1) = 0.6, P(A2) = 0.30, P(A3) = 0.1, P(B/A1) = 0.02, P(B/A2) = 0.05, P(B/A3) = 0.08
P(A1∩B) = P(A1) P(B/A1) = 0.6 x 0.02 = 0.012, P(A2∩B) = P(A2) P(B/A2) = 0.3 x 0.05 = 0.015,
P(A3∩B) = PA3) P(B/A3) = 0.1 x 0.08 = 0.008
Unsolved questions
Q19. It is known that 40% of the students in a certain college are girls and 50% of the students are
above the median height. If 2/3 of the boys are above median height, what is the probability that a
randomly selected student who is below the median height is a girl?
P(G/M bar) = 0.6 where G is the event that a student is a girl, M is the event that a student has
above median height and M bar is the event that a student has below median height.
Q20. Computers A and B are to be marketed. A salesman who is assigned the job of finding
customers for them has 60% and 40% chances respectively of succeeding in case of computer A
and B. The two computers can be sold independently. Given that the salesman is able to sell at
least one computer, what is the probability that computer A has been sold?