International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 28 (2018) 701–710

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ijdrr

Analysis of the interrelationship between houses, trees and damage in a T

cyclone affected city: Can landscape design and planning utilising trees
minimise cyclone impact?
⁎,1
F.J. Van der Sommena, D.M. Pearsona, , G.S. Boggsa,2
a
Research Institute for Environment & Livelihoods, School of Environment, Faculty of Engineering, Health, Science and the Environment, Charles Darwin University,
Darwin, Northern Territory 0909, Australia

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: Under scenarios of climate change the likelihood of more intensive extreme weather events like tropical cyclones
Arboreal services is expected to increase and many tropical regions most at risk from cyclones are still developing economically.
Risk mitigation With increased urbanisation predicted over the next 20–50 years to cope with population growth, it is important
Disaster management that planning for urban development in these regions considers amelioration of danger, especially the impacts
Landscape ecology
associated with cyclone damage. Approaches to risk management can learn a lot from past experiences with
Climate change
cyclonic events. The knowledge that was accumulated after the devastation of Darwin, Australia by Cyclone
Green infrastructure
Tracy in 1974 provides important evidence that can contribute towards risk mitigation and disaster management
in the future. Applying a mixed methods approach, this study examines historical information collected at the
time of Cyclone Tracy to help understand the role of the urban forest and positioning of housing in reducing
cyclone damage. It includes a review of whether the pattern of tree cover, which is influenced by geophysical
and socio-cultural factors, mitigates or exacerbates cyclone damage. The results of the study show that although
the relationship is complex, trees appear to have a role to play in ameliorating cyclone damage under certain
conditions. This potential gain, along with the other benefits trees offer to tropical urban areas, means that trees
are an important consideration for future urban planning in developing regions.

1. Introduction 20–50 years and associated urban construction activity in developing

Climate change is thought to be one of the most significant chal-
lenges facing the world and in particular urban centres, in the 21st
Century [1]. Under scenarios of climate change the likelihood of more
intense extreme weather events like tropical cyclones is expected to
increase [21,27,69]. Cyclones are storm systems that are characterised
by a low pressure centre, thunderstorms, very strong winds and tor-
rential rain that can bring devastating consequences for urban centres.
Tropical cyclones form over tropical or sub-tropical seas between 5 and
30 degrees latitude [44], a region characterised by developing econo-
mies, with some of the most vulnerable and disadvantaged people
living in these areas. Steiner [60]. It is not possible to stop cyclones
occurring but measures can be taken to lessen the severity of impacts,
reducing possible loss of life and damage to infrastructure that can
cause issues for socio-economic functioning after an extreme event
(Hoque et al. 2016). It is important that population growth in the next
tropical regions is carried out in the context of planning for urban de-
velopment that considers amelioration of cyclone impacts, strategies to
minimise the risks associated with cyclone damage and possible ways of
reducing the exposure of people to these potentially deadly natural
hazards.
When constructing urban areas certain physical features can help to
reduce damage to buildings from natural hazards and protect lives.
Action can also be taken to reduce urban vulnerability and improve
resilience to extreme events. This can include the construction of more
wind resistant homes and buildings and the inclusion of features like
shutters which can act as shock absorbers against debris and strong
winds [12]. Proactive human behaviour can also increase the level of
preparedness to face these extreme events which can have the knock on
effect of reducing personal vulnerability. Insight to risk management
solutions can also be gained from past experiences with cyclonic events
and learnings from the patterns of previous damage [60].

⁎
Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: D.Pearson@massey.ac.nz (D.M. Pearson), guy.boggs@wabsi.org.au (G.S. Boggs).
1
Present address: Institute of Agriculture and Environment, College of Sciences, Massey University, Palmerston North, 4442, New Zealand.
2
Present address: Western Australian Biodiversity Science Institute. University of Western Australia, Perth, 6401, Western Australia.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.01.031
Received 17 October 2017; Received in revised form 24 January 2018; Accepted 27 January 2018
Available online 05 February 2018
2212-4209/ © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
F.J. Van der Sommen et al.
Planning to reduce the impacts of cyclones is of particular concern
to regions like monsoonal northern Australia that experience cyclones
each year and fast developing cities like Darwin, in the Northern
Territory, that are located in this zone and that have already borne
witness to the extreme devastation that cyclones can cause. The
knowledge that was accumulated after the devastation of Darwin by
Cyclone Tracy in 1974 has the potential to provide important scientific
and anecdotal evidence that can contribute towards risk mitigation and
disaster management in the future. This paper presents the findings of a
study that examined historical information collected at the time of
Cyclone Tracy, and ecological studies looking at the impact of sub-
sequent severe cyclones that have hit northern Australia, to help un-
derstand the role of trees and positioning of housing, relative to land-
scape characteristics, in reducing cyclone damage.
Trees under cyclonic conditions have the potential to be both a
source of, and a buffer for, flying debris impacting on houses. Tropical
Cyclone Tracy, which struck Darwin city on Christmas Eve in 1974, can
provide a valuable insight into the impact of cyclones on both trees and
houses and the relationship between the two. From reviewing available
historical information, it is evident that arboreal landscape design,
planning and management in tropical landscapes has the potential to
ameliorate the impact of cyclone damage providing that the trees
planted can cope with the stresses imposed and do not contribute to the
hazard. The science of integrating and managing trees for ecological or
arboreal services, particularly, in urban landscapes, is a growing field of
research with particular interest associated with climate change adap-
tation and mitigation ([43]; Mellaney et al. 2015). However, to date,
most cyclone research in urban landscapes has been reductionist in
approach, focusing on the role of structural and material attributes of
houses in relation to cyclone damage ([24,55]; Pielke and Landsea
1998), with the work that has focused on trees and cyclones mainly
examining their response from a debris source perspective [64,67].
Little research to date has taken the more holistic approach needed to
examine complex interacting factors and the possible positive role
played by trees on urban landscapes during cyclones. In contrast, in
non-urban environments, but in similar bioclimatic regions, there has
been more in-depth research into the response of trees to cyclones and
role of trees in the wider natural environment [14,57,68,69]. By taking
a more holistic spatial landscape ecological approach to the analysis of
tree response in urban areas under cyclonic situations it is possible to
develop a greater understanding of the ecology of cyclone impacts and
effects and knowledge acquired that is more relevant to urban land-
scape planning for both houses and trees. This is particularly important
given the growing value placed on incorporating urban green infra-
structure into urban design and planning [49].
In this paper the authors examine the influence of geophysical and
socio-cultural factors on tree and housing characteristics using a spatial
landscape analysis. Presented are findings from the case study using
Cyclone Tracy that demonstrate the complex nature of the relationships
between these factors. This research highlights the need for greater
understanding of the relationship between trees and urban environ-
ments and provides justification for further in depth analysis into the
role of trees in mitigating or exacerbating cyclone caused housing da-
mage. This paper provides a valuable contribution to the discussion
about sustainable urban design for growing cities in tropical regions in
the face of climate change.
1.1. Background
It is expected that by 2030 61% of the world's population will live in
urban areas [71]. As development intensifies and human use of land
grows, there is inevitably greater competition for land and as a result
there is more of a need for good landscape and urban design and
planning [17]. Effective planning and design needs to take into account
biological, social and physical components of the landscape and make
strong links to landscape architecture. Sustainable urban planning
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International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 28 (2018) 701–710
needs to pay particular attention to the effect urban development has
on environmental processes and be aware of important feedback me-
chanisms between the urban and more natural elements of the en-
vironment. A popular opinion of a sustainable city is one that has
buildings and infrastructure that are built to conserve energy. Of par-
ticular concern to urban developments in areas affected by cyclones and
other extreme climatic events and natural hazards is how to make a city
sustainable in the sense of being able to sustain and withstand the
impact of these events, particularly if they become more frequent or
intense.
It is known that urban development changes local climatology [71].
In fact, urbanisation has been noted as something that alters the local
environment, by causing an increase in air temperature and altering
water cycles, and by affecting ecological processes and landscape
functioning [2]. Urbanisation also changes the structure of landscapes
so that patterning of vegetation as well as natural processes are altered.
This means that urbanisation causes the landscape to become ‘compo-
sitionally more heterogeneous’, ‘geometrically more complex’, and
‘ecologically more fragmented’ ([2] pg 1; [74]). The implications of
what these changes mean under situations associated with extreme
climatic events and natural disasters and how appropriate landscape
design can ameliorate negative impacts is something that needs to be
better understood.
Due to the potential catastrophic impact of cyclones there is a re-
cognised need to consider the vulnerability of urban areas to these
events especially given the severe impact they can have on the socio-
economic systems that operate within urban environments [29]. Vul-
nerability can be described as being ‘exposure to an event’, ‘sensitivity
of a system to an event’, and the ‘system's ability to adapt to an event’
[29]. The key to vulnerability is exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive
capacity. In order to assess vulnerability one needs to understand the
systems exposure to a hazard, as well as its sensitivity and resilience to
the hazard. An important part of human vulnerability to global en-
vironmental change is associated with the danger of extreme climatic
events [29]. Climate change adaptation strategies need to be in-
corporated into urban and land use planning and actions taken to help
empower the people that are the most at risk from extreme climatic
events by getting them to participate in activities and strategies that
will increase resilience and reduce vulnerability [21]. In areas likely to
be affected by extreme climatic events as a regular occurrence, urban
design needs to consider the best way to minimise the impact of these
events on infrastructure and human wellbeing [66]. This can be done
by reducing exposure, decreasing the sensitivity of the landscape or
improving the urban environments adaptive capacity and resilience to
extreme climatic events.
The physical benefits of trees in urban areas is now well recognised
[3,34,38,43,48,66,75]. In urban areas trees can play an important role
in evaporative cooling, reducing heat island effects, cooling buildings,
providing shade, reducing surface run off following rainfall, reducing
noise, reducing particulate pollution, sequesting carbon, reducing
crime, and increasing property prices (Roy et al. 2012; [23]; Boland and
Hunhammer 1999). There is also evidence to suggest that trees in urban
areas make economic, environmental, social, cultural and spiritual
contributions to the wellbeing of people [34]. Also, it has been noted
that different types of trees have different impacts on the urban en-
vironment and the ecosystem services they provide is often species
specific [34]. This means that trees can be seen to be economically,
socially and culturally important components of urban areas [35].
Urban greenways have also been seen to have multiple functions,
helping with urban sustainability and counteracting fragmentation of
habitat [65]. Current priorities based on sustainable urban develop-
ment are making urban planners pay more attention to the important
role trees can play in urban environments [3,34,38,43,48,71,75].
However, trees in disaster prone urban areas, including high cyclone
and bushfire risk areas, are often considered to exacerbate this risk
which results in active removal campaigns undertaken post disaster
F.J. Van der Sommen et al. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 28 (2018) 701–710

[32]. Recent research by Roy [54] has highlighted the influence of

personal opinions on perceived threats to vital infrastructure posed by
street trees in municipal areas and cite an absence of research to bal-
ance views and opinions. The subjective nature of current thinking and
available information highlights the need to more scientifically under-
stand and document the relationship between trees, tree cover and
damage from cyclones to support evidence based decision making.
Cyclones, which can also go by the common name of typhoons and
hurricanes depending on where they occur geographically, are cate-
gorized based on their strength and can range in intensity from what
are classed as weak systems, with wind speeds of about 160 km per
hour, to the extremely destructive classification which can have winds
in excess of 350 km per hour [69]. Category 1 are the weakest cyclones
and category 5 are the strongest. In this paper the authors hypothesize
that certain species of trees growing in specific locations might be able
to mitigate some of the extreme damage caused by cyclonic winds. In
doing so the authors highlight the important connections between
landscape pattern in the form of tree distribution in relation to house
location, environmental functioning and urban design, and the need to
consider these with regard to any development of tropical cities likely
to be affected by cyclones. As such the authors suggest taking a land-
scape ecological approach to urban planning and design that considers
pattern and function. A holistic approach such as this that considers
complex interactions and interrelationships has the potential to better
inform urban planning decisions in tropical areas affected by cyclonic
events. This could be particularly useful in guiding planning and policy
making decisions necessary to cope with the implications society will
face from the growing need for more extensive urban development in
areas prone to cyclone risk, whilst trying to minimise vulnerability of
the urban areas to cyclones. A key consideration in this paper is the
general view that tropical cyclone intensity will increase under sce-
narios of climate change meaning that newly developing urban areas
such as the proposed expansion planned for urban Darwin [18] need to
be designed to withstand the onslaught of what could be possibly
stronger winds than previously experienced.

1.2. Study area
With a predominantly coastal based population and an already
harsh climate and high incidence of natural disasters and extreme cli-
matic events, climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction are
major considerations for Australia [21]. Tropical cyclones are a regular
feature of northern Australia. Cyclones can occur in northern Australia
any time between November and May. In this locality they have a mean
rate of occurrence of 9.4 per year [57]. This study focuses on Darwin,
which is the capital city of the Northern Territory and is located at a
geographical location of 12°28'S 130°50′E (see Fig. 1a). Its climate is
tropical with a distinct wet and dry season. The wet season falls from
October to April and mean annual rainfall is in the order of 1730 mm/
year [8]. Climatically Darwin is more closely associated with its south
Asian neighbouring capitals than Sydney. Its location makes it the most
northerly of Australian capital cities. It is also currently the smallest but
growth in population is one of the highest in Australia.
The city has been rebuilt twice due to the bombing of Darwin in
February 1942 from Japanese air raids and Cyclone Tracy in 1974. The
city has recently been going through an economic boom and develop-
ment is high on the agenda. Post war suburban development of the
Darwin landscape up to 1974 saw a progressive change of tree cover
from naturally evolved eucalypt dominated savanna woodland, open
forest and monsoon rainforest to fragmentation of trees in these com-
munities and cultivation of introduced trees in parks and gardens.
These form a complex mosaic with buildings and associated infra-
structure.
The geophysical environment of the land systems and land units on
which Darwin is built, identifiable by their land forms, soils and natural
vegetation, have been described elsewhere
Fig. 1. a) Map showing the geographic location of Darwin, Northern Territory, Australia
and b) the distribution of housing allotments (red) during the time of TC Tracy (1974)
relative to Darwin in 1999 estimated cyclone centre line (CCL), eyewall boundary and
coastline datum.
Wood et al., [20,72] and serve as an indicator of the spatial varia-
bility of environmental constraints imposed on land use for both con-
struction and tree cultivation. Trees in these landscape have to deal
with inherently infertile soil, highly seasonal rainfall and soil moisture,
high temperature associated evapotranspiration rates, damage from fire
and more relevant to this study direct wind destruction. In urbanised
landscapes additional cultural processes of soil scalping, vehicle com-
paction, top soiling, fertilization, mulching and irrigation, construction
with associated building microclimate has create a complex “anthropic”
landscape ecology.
Cyclone Tracy, an estimated category 4 cyclone, crossed directly
over suburban Darwin, on 24th December 1974 (Fig. 1b). Much of the
city was encompassed by the eye wall zone of the cyclone [40,6,7,70].
Cyclone Tracy is a prime example of the tenuous relationship between
the scale of a hazard and its social and environmental consequences, as
although comparatively small in size, with a variable albeit small core
size and shape, it had a devastating impact on Darwin suburban houses,
trees, and people, causing 71 deaths and many injuries, mainly from
flying debris. It was also responsible for causing approximately $800
(AUD 1974) million in damage with more than 70% of Darwin's
buildings (about 80% of houses) destroyed. Over 80% of the population
of Darwin at the time became homeless and about 60% were evacuated.
The social, cultural and psychological impact of this cyclone is well
documented [13,42,62,63]. Details of the effects of the cyclone and
associated debris on buildings has been described in an extensive report

703
F.J. Van der Sommen et al.
[70] and recorded in a unpublished survey undertaken for the Darwin
Reconstruction Commission (DRC) between 1975 and 1977 and held in
the National Archives of Australia.
More recent severe cyclones (category 4 and above) to hit northern
Australia include: Debbie – northern Queensland March 2017; Lam –
Arnhem land Northern Territory February 2015; Marcia – northern
Queensland February 2015; Yasi – northern Queensland February 2011;
Monica – Arnhem land, Northern Territory April 2006; and Larry –
northern Queensland March 2006.
2. Methods
The study outlined in this paper reviews and evaluates aspects of the
hypothesis that trees are not just responsible for damage under cyclonic
conditions but if strategically placed can help to mitigate the damage
caused by cyclones. To do this a mixed methods landscape ecosystem
approach is taken which is interdisciplinary and draws on a range of
available resources and multiple layers of historical biophysical and
sociological data, as well as available ecological information associated
with cyclone impact. The analysis examines the spatial patterns of
house damage in relation to tree location and age and considers the
response and role of trees by reviewing available literature covering
previous ecological studies relating to tree damage and reactions during
recent severe cyclones in northern Australia.
Biophysical data analysed in this study includes information re-
lating to the cyclone, as well as topographic and tree cover data. To
undertake the spatial analysis, the Cyclone centerline (CCL), as defined
by the Bureau of Meteorology [7], was digitized and a 1 km buffer
applied using GIS software. Contour, slope, and aspect layers were
created from a DEM generated from 1:10 K spot height data. Tree cover
data, derived from shadow proxies, was estimated for each house al-
lotment in the study area using 1:7500 black and white aerial photo-
graphy taken at about 15,000 m altitude at 10 am on the 7/6/74. These
photos were scanned with a high-resolution scanner at 400dpi and
rectified using image-to-cadastre georeferencing and then were con-
verted to pseudo-colour to discriminate shades of black shadows from
white roofed buildings. The outcome was two images which were di-
gitally placed over the original photo. The house shadow was removed
from other shadows by determining the shadow offset (in pixels) from
the building at the centre of the image relative to coordinates of the
corners. When processed, the composite files with house shadows lar-
gely eliminated were merged into a mosaic and the proportion of each
cadastral block occupied by tree shadow was analysed. Zonal statistics
were used to calculate the percentage cover of shadow /tree cover for
each allotment in the cadastre dataset and converted to a 0–1 scale (the
‘Tree Cover Index (TCI)’). Validation of the shadow/tree cover mapping
was undertaken by comparison with manual measurement of tree cover
for 50 randomly selected producing a significant liner regression (R2
= 0.68).
Sociological data analysed in this study consisted of house type and
house damage data. This was extracted from an unpublished post
Cyclone Tracy survey undertaken for the Darwin Reconstruction
Commission (DRC) between 1975 and 1977 and held in National
Archives of Australia. From this study information could be obtained on
house type (elevated open, elevated built under and ground level),
house material (brick, cement, fibrocement, fibrocement and brick,
others), and house damage (House Damage Index (HDI) scaled from 0
to 1). As no record of how HDI was estimated, it was assumed that
similar statistical criteria were used to calculate this damage index to
those reported by Waker (1975), i.e. the Walker Building Damage Index
(BDI) which is a function of maximum wind velocity impacting on the
building and a measure of structural resistance of the building.
Comparison of HDI and BDI revealed that both data sets showed similar
normal distribution patterns. The normalized basic damage distribution
curve was rescaled to that of the DRC survey, called HDIw. A Kendall
tua_b correlation analysis in SPSS 15 (SPSS Inc 2006) performed on
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International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 28 (2018) 701–710
these two indices showed a highly significant correlation value (0.94,
p < 001) in all cases suggesting that similar criteria were used.
An estimate of house and tree age was determined using ‘year of
street naming’ data provided by the Darwin Street Naming Committee
within the Northern Territory Government Department of Lands and
Planning. House ownership data was derived from the DRC survey.
Houses were categorized into ‘Government’, ‘Housing Commission’ and
‘Private’ ownership. Allotment area data was derived from the Northern
Territory Cadastral data set on the assumption that this had remained
largely unaltered since Cyclone Tracy.
To evaluate what variables appeared to contribute to the state of
houses before and following Cyclone Tracy spatial and statistical ana-
lyses were performed. The binning extension in SPSS was used to group
tree cover into three and five classes, elevation and slope (%) for
combined data into six classes, and elevation and Ln slope for north and
south of the CCL into five classes. Statistical analysis involved de-
termining and plotting means for total Darwin data together with
standard deviation (95%) confidence level to assess trends and, differ-
ences between, the various landscape determinants, TCI and HDI and
their interactive responses. Pearson's Correlation coefficient was used to
test for trends in such relationships with ANOVA together with the
Dunnett's C test used to test for significance between responses as re-
quired.
For an evaluation of the impact of cyclones on trees in northern
Australian landscapes ecological research undertaken after some of the
most severe cyclones to hit the region was investigated. Published work
on these events that was reviewed as part of this mixed methods ap-
proach included Turton [69], Turton, [68] Cook and Goydens [14] and
Staben and Evans [57].
3. Results
3.1. Cyclone tree damage review
The results of the mixed methods approach show that of the re-
search that has taken place on the impacts of recent cyclones to hit the
Northern Territory coast, Staben and Evans [57] (who looked at the
impact of destructive winds on vegetation in the Magela Creek Catch-
ment by evaluating tree canopy loss in natural areas, and at the Ranger
mine near Kakadu National Park using remotely sensed data through an
evaluation of the first ten days after Cyclone Monica and then the same
area one year later), found that areas closer to water e.g. in riparian
zones or inundated areas exhibited a bigger loss in terms of tree canopy
cover than upland areas. Cook and Goydens [14] also looked at the
impact of Cyclone Monica and found that from their investigation that
different species of trees react differently to cyclones, with their ob-
servations indicating that the sclerophyllous leaves of eucalypts found
in the savanna woodlands of the Northern Territory tend to resist de-
foliation under cyclonic conditions for longer than the typical leaves of
rainforest species found in northern Queensland. They also observed
that the harder wood species appeared to resist breakage for longer.
However, their findings suggested that retention of leaves could result
in an increased proportion of trees snapped and uprooted in cyclones
due to greater wind load [14]. The damage that cyclones cause has been
observed to be affected by – wind velocity, variations in site exposure or
effects of topography, and response of systems to wind disturbance as a
function of species composition and vegetation structure [69]. Tur-
ton's [69] research looked at trying to secure resilience to cyclones in
the wet tropical forests of northern Queensland using information from
Cyclone Larry and Yasi. He found that at the local scale within forest
structures the impact of the cyclone is controlled by composition and
structure and small scale topography. This provides evidence that the
relationship between tree behaviour and cyclones is complex. In urban
environments, this is further complicated by modified physical land-
scapes, varied species selection, active tree management and the built
environment, patterns of which are heavily influenced by socio,
F.J. Van der Sommen et al.
cultural and economic drivers. Within the scope of this study which
used historical data and literature it was not possible to evaluate the
direct impact relevant to species composition but the effects of some of
the socio-cultural characteristics are illustrated in the results below.
3.2. Cyclone Tracy characterisation
An evaluation of historical information relevant to Cyclone Tracy
showed that extent of house damage was influenced by their structural
attributes such as house type (i.e. elevated or ground level), cladding
material, as well as the construction process associated with ownership,
and landscape topography relative to the cyclone path, although the
relative contribution of these factors is poorly documented.
The damage to trees, both in the remnant native forest and in the
suburban landscapes of relic endemic and cultivated parts of Darwin
has also been well documented [10,22]. Following Cyclone Tracy, Ca-
meron, et al. [10] observed an inverse relationship between tree cover
and housing damage suggesting that trees provided cyclone protection,
although there was no statistical evidence to support this. However,
reports that document the fact that during periods of strong winds there
is alteration to the predicted uplift forces on flat roofed, low buildings
which can be seen to be associated with surrounding trees of similar
dimension [58,73], lend support to this hypothesis. Possibly more sig-
nificantly in favour of this argument is the fact that much house damage
noted at the time of Cyclone Tracy appears to result from flying debris,
which has much greater force than the transporting wind [26]. It is
argued from this interpretation of the information available that urban
tree cover may act as “debris filters” absorbing both debris energy and
matter thereby playing some role in reducing damage, providing that
trees themselves do not become a hazard.
Evidence from general cyclone models and from cyclone damage
pattern data analysed in this study, as well as from the post Cyclone
Tracy survey [70], indicates that the winds of the approaching cyclone
had a stronger on-shore (westerly) component, associated with reduced
boundary layer friction, on the northern (left) side than southern (right)
side of the cyclone path where they were weaker and more off shore
(easterly). The mean wind velocity in such a tract has also been shown
to increase radially out from the cyclone centre to the eye-wall and then
decrease beyond from the centre (see [15]).
3.3. Cyclone Tracy housing damage and tree cover analysis
The landscape analysis of housing damage and tree cover patterns
provides insights into potential relationships between trees, cyclones
and damage to the built environment. The radial HDI profile in this
study followed the wind profile closely with damage peaking close to
the eye-wall (5–6 km) estimated by the Bureau of Meteorology [6]. The
cyclone tract intercepted and divided the south to north spatio-tem-
poral gradient of developing allotments, such that the decrease in
modelled radial wind field intensity was accompanied by newer houses
with lower tree cover northwards of the CCL (Fig. 2a). This was in
contrast to an increase in house and tree age (and tree cover) south-
wards of the CCL. Here the modelled wind velocity increased at least up
to the eye-wall, contributing to a direct correlation between the TCI and
HDI.
The anticipated influence of decreasing cyclone intensity inland
from the coast was not evident in HDI patterns (Fig. 2b). What was
observed in the data was an increase in HDI with distance inland,
particularly north of the CCL. Whilst the TCI, consistent with devel-
opment patterns, was seen to decrease with distance inland. This pat-
tern was less evident, if not reversed south of the CCL. This relationship
is further explored in this study through the analysis of a range of social
and biophysical parameters that may underlie the relationship between
tree cover and housing damage, and can affect the role of trees in
protecting or inflicting damage.
The Walker report [70] had previously identified that terrain factors
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International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 28 (2018) 701–710
north and south of the cyclone centreline may have played a role in
damage, although how this might have occurred was not fully ex-
plained. The role of landforms in regulating wind flow and determining
the degree of cyclone exposure is generally recognised [26]. Bluff
bodies such as hills can establish pressure gradients which are positive
on the windward side and negative on the lee side. According to
Reardon [53], structures located on the crest of hills, can be expected to
experience wind speed increases in the order of 20–50% depending
upon the extent and slope of the hill. For small hills and rises or de-
pressions, typifying the Darwin landscape, topographic barriers of
3–6 m may also have modified wind impact [70].
This study suggests that north of the CCL HDI increased with ele-
vation, while TCI decreased (Fig. 3a to d). This contributes to the ob-
served inverse relationship between tree cover and damage. HDI did
however increase with tree cover on higher elevation sites suggesting
that increased exposure increased tree related hazards. However, the
influence of elevation on HDI is not apparent from data south of the
CCL. Here damage appears to increase with tree cover but only at low
elevation sites. Low elevation sites are located closer to the coast where
trees are older, and where the winds from both the approaching cyclone
would have been stronger. At the more sheltered mid elevation sites
(both north and south of the CCL) there appears to be both higher TCI
and lower HDI suggesting that in these locations topography and tree
cover combine to enhance house protection. HDI is also observed to
increase with slope angle north of the CCL, particularly where there is
increased tree cover although this relationship is not observed south of
the CCL.
Results of one-way ANOVA and Dunnett's C post hoc test indicates
both north and south of the CCL NE aspect (0–90) had marginally lower
HDI than NW (90–180) (p < 0.05) but significantly lower HDI than SE
(180–360) (p < 0.001). More broadly, locations where aspect had a
westerly component, significantly higher HDI (p < 0.001) values were
observed than those locations with an easterly aspect, while TCI values
appeared lower. This inverse relationship, although indicative of pro-
tection benefits, also indicates the influence of exposure to the eastward
moving cyclone and associated westerly winds. North of the CCL only
the more sheltered south easterly aspects indicated a significantly lower
HDI with increased tree cover both benefitting from the microclimate of
this location. South of the CCL most aspects showed the reverse trend
suggesting that higher tree cover, particularly significant for south
westerly aspects, was associated with higher HDI. Therefore, it is pos-
sible that the older trees found here were contributing to higher HDI
values.
The spatial and topographic landscape factors described above, that
influence both the pattern of house construction and associated tree
cover management, are under pinned by a number of cultural factors.
For example, certain house attributes were shown to also influence the
damage caused by Cyclone Tracy. Such attributes include the material
used to clad the house and the style of house. The resistance to wind
offered by a house has been noted to be a function of the nature of
cladding material, internal structural members, windows and other
modular units by the eminent civil engineer Joseph Minor [45,46] who
is recognised in wind engineering. The results of one way ANOVA and
Dunnett's Ç test for difference in HDI scores for house structures and
materials indicates a significant difference (P < 0.05) between all
house types and all materials except between fibrocement, cement and
others which were not significantly different. Overall, this study shows
that brick houses demonstrated significantly less damage than fi-
brocement and HDI was significantly greater for elevated open houses
than those at ground level. As emphasised by Holmes [26], debris pe-
netration of cladding is the primary mechanism by which internal
pressure is rapidly increased. Trees may have played a role in both
being a source of and intercepting debris that impacted on elevated
homes constructed largely of fibrocement.
Although there was a significantly negative correlation with TCI and
HDI, particularly north of the CCL, this relationship was weaker and
F.J. Van der Sommen et al. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 28 (2018) 701–710

Fig. 2. Mean pooled HDI and TCI with distance to the a) CCL b) and Coastline).

Fig. 3. Least distance means square plot of HDI as a function of landscape elevation (contour) and slope (log percent) for a) south the CCL and b) north of the CCL and Least distance
means square plot of tree cover (Arcsine cover %) in Darwin, 1974, as a function of landscape elevation (contour) and slope (log %) for c) south of the CCL and d) north of the CCL.

reversed south of the cyclone centreline particularly for elevated
houses, with no relationship evident for elevated “built under” and
“ground level” houses (Fig. 4). This suggests that younger, smaller trees
to the north may have provided more protection against stronger winds
for these more vulnerable houses, whereas the older, taller trees to the
south of the CCL may have exacerbated such damage even under the
weaker wind regime.
Reference has been made to the important role played by age in
explaining temporal patterns of TCI influencing relationships to HDI.
Both TCI generally increased and HDI decreased with age, the latter
showing greater temporal variability with similar cyclic changes evi-
dent north and south of the CCL, suggesting a progressive improvement
followed by deterioration in house vulnerability.
The influence of the ‘human factor’ on house construction, as well as
tree planting and maintenance influencing cyclone vulnerability, is
reflected in primary house ownership. Of the ‘Government’ houses, the

706
F.J. Van der Sommen et al.
Fig. 4. Mean and standard deviation of HDI and their relationship to five binned TCI classes for three house structures a) north (N) and b) south (S) of the CCL.
a)
Fig. 5. Relationship between house ownership a) north and b) south of CCL and the HDI for three tree cover classes.
post cyclone damage assessment in Walker [70] noted that ‘Housing
Commission’ houses appeared from general inspection to have fared
somewhat better than departmental ones, although the greater number
of hipped roofs amongst ‘Housing Commission’ houses also increased
their vulnerability as noted in this study. The analysis of data also
showed that the pooled ‘Government’ and ‘Housing Commission’ houses
were found to have sustained significantly higher HDI values than
‘Private’ houses, with an inverse relationship to TCI (Fig. 5). North of
the CCL the more vulnerable ‘Government’ houses showed an inverse
relationship with TCI, not evident in ‘Private’ houses. South of the CCL
higher tree cover, linked to larger older trees in ‘Private’ house allot-
ments, generally located along the western coastal margin, was asso-
ciated with increased HDI.
The space around and between houses in cyclone affected land-
scapes has had different, often conflicting, affects. Walker [70] sug-
gested that brick houses, mixed with elevated houses may have pro-
vided some protection. Building height /spacing ratio or house density
has also been considered a contributing factor in shielding [25,30,39].
In this study increased allotment area, up to 2800 m2, serving as a proxy
for house spacing, showed a small change in HDI for ‘Private’ houses,
but did not for ‘Government’ houses. TCI both north and south of the
CCL also increased with allotment area suggesting that the combination
of area and TCI reduced housing damage for the more sensitive houses.
4. Discussion
Relationships identified in the initial analysis of pre-Cyclone Tracy
allotment tree cover and post-Cyclone Tracy house damage data held in
archives lends strong support to the hypothesis put forward by Cameron
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International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 28 (2018) 701–710
b)
et al. [10] that there is an inverse relation between these two variables.
That is, trees can offer some form of protection to houses during cy-
clones. However, further analysis of data revealed that the relationship
between the cyclone wind field, houses and trees is a complex one, as it
appears to be influenced by temporal, spatial, topographic and cultural
factors. These, individually or collectively, have been shown to dom-
inate, and, in some circumstances, reverse the relationship. The com-
plexity of the relationship is illustrated by the fact that the tract of
Cyclone Tracy and the associated cyclone wind field, particularly
within the eye-wall zone that covered most of Darwin, inflicted damage
on both houses and trees that intersected a north south spatio-temporal
gradient of changing house construction and associated tree age and
cover.
The spatial analysis of HDI and TCI across a range of landscape si-
tuations in the Darwin study area revealed a consistent inverse corre-
lation between these two variables, particularly in landscapes involving
stronger winds, more vulnerable houses and smaller trees. This there-
fore provides sufficient indication that here tree cover may minimise
house damage from cyclone debris. In landscapes where trees are larger
and where both house and trees have greater topographic exposure to
winds, even though houses are less inherently vulnerable, tree cover as
a source of debris may contribute to cyclone hazards. Within the
moving cyclone wind field there are sites where combined and alter-
nating winds may amplify the tree cover house interaction effects,
providing both benefits and dis-benefits depending on the type of cover
and the vulnerability of houses and the effects of topography on both.
The landscape analysis approach adopted in this study demonstrates
the complex relationship between tree cover and cyclone damage
within the urban environment, providing an important base to develop
F.J. Van der Sommen et al.
more detailed investigation from which to unravel the real complexities
in this relationship. In particular, the historical analysis undertaken in
this study was unable, due to limited data, to reveal spatial patterns in
tree species distribution across the 1974 Darwin landscape. Examining
the relationship of tree species to cyclone damage is important and
should be explored in future studies, but needs to consider both the
species based and edaphic factors affecting tree physiology and cyclone
response. In particular, their context within the built environment,
modified physical landscape and management.
Recognising that trees can also be a source of cyclone debris means
that models that try to understand tree debris generated from cyclonic
events (e.g. [67]) might be able to assist in getting a better under-
standing of how much debris can result from a cyclone and what its
impact might have. These finding suggest that debris modelling re-
levant to species composition and impact should be explored in more
detail in future studies. Debris estimation methods are complex but
models based on tree density, tree height and wind data have tried to
understand the potential amount of tree debris caused by cyclones [67].
Thompson et al. [67] pointed out that most estimates of debris were
however based on the assumption that all trees behave uniformly and
that trees greater than 30 m will generate debris. The result being that
models generated for hurricanes in Virginia and North Carolina have
overestimated debris quite considerably by 90% and 42% respectively.
Interesting for this study is that an evaluation of the results of the
modelling and analysis conducted by Thompson et al. [67] shows that
non-storm variables were found to be more important predictors of
debris than storm variables. These findings also supported the results of
work carried out by Staudhammer et al. [59], Kupfer et al. [37] and
Duryea et al. [19] that suggested tree damage caused by hurricanes was
more than likely attributed to trees being improperly located, poorly
maintained or a species that has a low tolerance to hurricane force
winds. The conclusion being that tree, or site specific variables, and
land cover, might have a stronger causal relationship with debris than
meteorological variables. This means that as the Cyclone Tracy study
hypothesises it might be possible for urban planners and tree managers
to proactively undertake action by careful planting of trees i.e. con-
sidering structure, composition and location, that can reduce the pro-
duction of tree debris from cyclones and contribute towards trees
playing a more protective role against the damage by cyclones. To add
more evidence to this argument and to provide more accurate in-
formation for urban tree management it is suggested that these factors
be explored more fully through further experimental and modelling
exercises.
As we move through the 21st century planning to reduce the risks
associated with cyclones will be vital to deal with the impact of climate
change on urban areas. Some of the measures taken will be major in
terms of modifications to buildings and the structure of urban areas but
we know from past experience that small actions taken prior to the
cyclone can also help to reduce the damage [31]. Being prepared from
knowledge of what has been experienced before and taking pre-
ventative measures can reduce the impact of cyclones and in-
corporating a spatial understanding of patterns of damage can reduce
risk. This means that spatial and temporal analysis of damage combined
with predictive modelling from known behaviour can be very important
for risk reduction and decision making about natural hazards (Hoque
et al., 2016).
The development of fast growing urban areas like Darwin and their
recovery from catastrophic events such as Cyclone Tracy is common to
the evolution of natural complex systems involving adaptive adjust-
ment. In anthropic ecosystems such adaptation involves selection of
ideas that, from experience, work towards contributing to responses in
design, planning and management. However, many of the lessons from
Cyclone Tracy are in jeopardy of having slipped from community
memory risking a repeat of some past mistakes. Much of the vulner-
ability was, and still is, a result of complex human processes within the
urban community ranging from tree species selection and cultivation, to
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International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 28 (2018) 701–710
house design, construction and management based on policies with
little evidence or understanding of the complex processes involved. This
means that optimum strategies for dealing with phenomena such as
cyclones are not adequately being implemented at the current time. It is
important to use the results of this study and further recommended
analysis to inform future urban planning and decision making. There is
great power in using historical information and knowledge to reveal
important information on exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of
houses and urban centres, and in association with tree cover informa-
tion, this information needs to form the basis of directing further re-
search and guidelines for development in cyclone prone urban areas
moving forward.
The urgency of developing informed policies and guidelines around
minimising the impact of cyclones on urban area, based on a re-
assessment of the effects of Cyclone Tracy and other cyclonic events,
combined with further targeted research on other urban cyclone phe-
nomena, has increased as a result of the pressures associated with cli-
mate change. Evidence of increases in atmospheric and ocean tem-
peratures, rainfall, wind and frequency of thunderstorms, are some
indicators of possible anthropogenic, environmental feedback effects,
impinging on tropical landscapes. Projections from albeit limited cy-
clone data coupled with thermodynamic understanding of cyclone
genesis and its link to the raising of sea surface temperature suggest that
the intensity of cyclones may be increasing and could be maintained
longer. The relatively recent occurrences of high intensity Cyclones
Ingrid and Monica following on from Tracey that struck within the
Darwin region and the devastation that resulted across Queensland and
northern New South Wales from the very recent destructive Cyclone
Debbie appear to support this with implications for both houses and
trees
Urban planning solutions for the future lie in implementing adap-
tive approaches that contribute towards building urban resilience and
sustainability to the changing climate [1]. Factors such as vulnerability
to cyclones, taking into account exposure, sensitivity and adaptive ca-
pacity, are vital considerations for future urban developments. This
study provides weight to the argument that informed urban landscape
planning and design incorporating trees can potentially contribute to
the amelioration of the impact of such changes. However, when con-
sidering the role of trees, as Kirkpatrick et al. [33] point out, the level of
engagement people have with them needs to be considered as this tends
to vary. The result of this being that some conflict exists between those
who see trees as cost effective for achieving urban goals and love them,
and those that are described as being scared of trees. This conflict may
serve to restrict up-take of tree planting to cushion against cyclone
events. However, it has been noted that some of the negative feelings
towards tree use in urban areas can be reduced by better tree man-
agement which includes more appropriate choice of species planted.
Also increasing evidence does show that the potential for tree cover to
ameliorate the impact of climate change, can complement the arboreal
services currently recognised as being offered to urban environments in
terms of effluent treatment [47,61], amelioration of urban air quality
and carbon dioxide assimilation [36,4], changing urban microclimate
[50], reduction of urban heat islands [41,56] and shade cooling of
houses [28], and offer a contribution to greenhouse gas reduction
which can only be positive for urban development moving forward.
This being the case the increasing use of what has become known as
‘green infrastructure’ to help build resilient urban systems has potential
to minimise impacts associated with natural disasters like cyclones, as
well as contributing to the health and economic wellbeing of tropical
communities, However, as Matthews et al. [43] point out there is still
some confusion over what exactly green infrastructure is. However,
whatever way planners want to look at green infrastructure it appears
that growing trees and considering plant life in urban development can
have multiple benefits for the urban environment. This study con-
tributes to the mounting evidence that points to the value of trees in
urban areas, the need for further research into the ecosystem services
F.J. Van der Sommen et al.
that trees can provide, the impact of natural disasters on urban areas
and the role of green infrastructure in helping to mitigate the con-
sequences of climate change.
The research presented in this paper illustrates that there are
complex relationships that need more in depth and targeted analysis to
understand completely. Significantly, this study demonstrates that trees
can play both a protective and destructive role in cyclone affected
urban landscapes, and the mixed methods analysis undertaken in this
paper has highlighted the complex interplay of species, age, physical
environment and management of trees and the layout and structural
attributes of houses that contributes to the role trees and the urban
forest play during cyclones. These findings add considerable strength to
the justification that further investigation is not only warranted but
timely. The many questions that arise from this study such as around a
deeper understanding of particular tree species that might act as po-
tential debris or debris barriers, need to be more fully explored. Future
research should be focused on addressing fundamental questions that
will be capable of informing strategic planting and positioning of ap-
propriate urban trees. These questions centre round determining defi-
nitive answers to which species of trees to use, what density and dis-
tribution, what distance should they be from buildings and
infrastructure and what tree management practices should be applied
for greater protection benefits. Manipulating key factors to optimise the
ability of the urban forest to mitigate cyclone damage in urban land-
scapes should be a priority and understanding the best way to do this is
a key requirement to inform evidence based decision making by urban
planners and policy makers
5. Conclusion
Since it is likely that society will want to build larger cities in cy-
clone prone areas in the future, then it is particularly important to learn
from history and take on board the lessons learned from events like
Cyclone Tracy so as to inform future planning. Even though this study
highlights the complexity involved in the possible relationship between
trees, cyclones and house damage in urban areas, the findings indicate
that holistic approaches to urban planning are required for sustainable
urban development in the wake of climate change. The results of this
study indicate that urban planning needs to cross disciplines and bring
planners, builders, architects, meteorologists and ecologists to the table
to discuss best practice urban design to ameliorate the impact of ex-
treme events. Adopting such an approach offers an exciting possibility
for the design of future cities. One in which humans and nature could
truly work together to minimise the social-economic impacts of cyclone
damage and potentially reduce the risk of high financial and human
loss. The impact of urban landscape change on trees, the role trees can
play in ameliorating the severity of damage associated with cyclonic
activity in monsoonal landscapes, and how tree cover needs to be
managed for sustainable landscapes are matters that this study has
touched on but still require further research. This study of Darwin and
what we can learn from its destruction by Cyclone Tracy serves to de-
monstrate the potential important and complex relationships that need
to be explored further and at a more global scale if effective policy
guidelines and adaptive strategies are to be developed for urban sus-
tainability in areas affected by extreme climatic events.
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to acknowledge Charles Darwin University
for supporting the research presented in this paper. The authors would
also like to acknowledge the many people with whom Frank had end-
less conversations about this research and in particular Cyclone Tracy,
as he was formalizing his theories that formed a substantial component
of this paper. You are too many to thank individually but you know who
you are. As with any historical study much information is hard to find
and many contributed towards finding its location. The authors would
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International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 28 (2018) 701–710
also like to thank the many people who read and commented on earlier
versions of this work, in particular Professors Bob Wasson, Andrew
Campbell and Julian Gorman
Dedication
This paper is dedicated to the memory and work of Dr Frans-Josef
(Frank) Van der Sommen who sadly lost his fight with cancer on 10th
January 2013. Frank was a passionate scholar and landscape ecologist,
with an eager quest to gain a better understanding of landscape func-
tioning right up to the end. His inquisitive mind, his holistic thinking,
and his enthusiasm for the natural environment and its interactions
with people, and the academic conversations that his conceptualizing
generated are sorely missed by all who had the pleasure of working
with him. It is hoped that finally through this paper aspects of the re-
search conducted towards the fulfillment of his PhD, will inspire others
to further pursue the knowledge required to address the yet to be an-
swered complex questions on associations between trees, cyclones and
urban environments.
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