Tshibaka unites the center-right, poised for victory in Alaska

DATE: March 24, 2022

TO: Kelly Tshibaka for Alaska
FROM: Brock McCleary, Cygnal
RE: Alaska Senate Poll Findings

The following are key findings from our March 14-16, 2022 poll conducted with likely general election
voters in Alaska.

Summary
With only modest investments in advertising by her campaign in 2021, Kelly Tshibaka has tripled her
name identification over the last year and positioned herself to be the next U.S. Senator from Alaska.
Based on the strength of her grassroots popularity, Tshibaka has united the center-right of the Alaska
electorate in rejection of incumbent Lisa Murkowski’s re-election bid.

Tshibaka leads Murkowski by 17% on the first-choice ballot

• Tshibaka carries 84% of the Republican vote and leads with both men and women.
• On the final ranked-choice results, Tshibaka prevails by 2%.
• Tshibaka trounces Murkowski with both Trump Republicans and Traditional Republicans.
• A strong majority of undecided voters have an unfavorable opinion of Murkowski.

U.S. Senate Ballot – First Choice

U.S. Senate Ballot – Final Ranking

A Republican Leads a Democrat by 22% on Generic Ballot
• Notably, 87% of Alaska Republicans hold an unfavorable view of Murkowski.
• Independents voters prefer a Republican by 13%.
• Party intensity is much stronger for Republicans (+86%) than Democrats (+58%).

President Biden is deeply unpopular with Alaska voters

• Unfavorable opinion of Biden runs across gender, age, race, media market and income level.

President Biden Image

METHODOLOGY: This probabilistic survey was conducted among likely 2022 general election voters in Alaska.
The n=500 survey sample was collected March 14-16, 2022 and has a margin of error of +/-4.21%. Known
registered voters were interviewed via live phone calls, SMS-to-web and email-to-web. The survey sample was
weighted to reflect a representative sample of the likely 2022 general election electorate in Alaska.

ABOUT CYGNAL: Cygnal is an award-winning international public opinion and predictive analytics firm that
pioneered multi-mode polling, peer-to-peer text collection, and Political Emotive Analysis. Cygnal is named the #1
Republican private pollster by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight two cycles running, as well as the #1 most accurate
polling and research firm in the country for 2018 by The New York Times. Its team members have worked in 47
states and countries on more than 2,100 corporate, public affairs, and political campaigns.