MTH-161 Introduction to Statistics

Lecture 08
Review of Lecture 07
So far, We have discussed “Sample Space” and “ Methods of Counting Sample
Points” in the Sample space. Also discussed some terms that we use in learning
probability
• Chance outcomes
• Observations
• Sample Space
• Experiment
• Event
• Counting Sample points in the Sample Space
Probability Probability is the measure of uncertainty.

History of Probability
A gambler's dispute in 1654 led to the creation of a mathematical theory of
probability by two famous French mathematicians, Blaise Pascal and Pierre de
Fermat.
• Antoine Gombaud, Chevalier de Méré, a French nobleman with an interest in gaming and
gambling questions, called Pascal's attention to an apparent contradiction concerning a popular
dice game.
• The game consisted in throwing a pair of dice 24 times; the problem was to decide whether or
not to bet even money on the occurrence of at least one "double six" during the 24 throws.
• A seemingly well-established gambling rule led de Méré to believe that betting on a double six in
24 throws would be profitable, but his own calculations indicated just the opposite.
Probability Probability is the measurement of uncertainty

We consider only those experiments for which the sample space contains a finite
number of elements.

• The likelihood of the occurrence of an event resulting from such a statistical experiment is
evaluated by means of a set of real numbers, called weights or probabilities, ranging from 0 to 1.

• To every point in the sample space, we assign a probability such that the sum of all probabilities is
equal to 1.
Definition:
The probability of an event A is the sum of the weights of all sample points in
Therefore,
0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1, P(φ) = 0, and P(S) = 1.
Furthermore, if A1, A2, A3, . . . is a sequence of mutually exclusive events, then
P(A1 ∪ A2 ∪ A3 ∪ ·· ·) = P(A1) + P(A2) + P(A3) + · · · .
Probability of an Event

Example: A coin is tossed twice. What is the probability that at least 1 head occurs?
Solution:
S = {HH,HT, TH, TT}.

If the coin is balanced, each of these outcomes is equally likely to occur. Therefore,
we assign a probability of ω to each sample point. Then 4ω = 1, or ω = 1/4. If A
represents the event of at least 1 head occurring, then

1 1 1 3
A = {HH,HT, TH} and P(A) = + + =
4 4 4 4
Probability of an Event
Consider, for instance, the simple experiment of tossing a balanced coin once.
Because the coin is balanced, we reason that there is a 50–50 chance the coin will
land with heads facing up.
Probability of an Event
Example: A die is loaded in such a way that an even number is twice as likely to
occur as an odd number. If “E” is the event that a number less than 4 occurs on a
single toss of the die, find P(E).
Solution:
The sample space is: S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
We assign a probability of “w” to each odd number and a probability of “2w” to
each even number.
Since the sum of the probabilities must be 1, we have 9w = 1 or w = 1/9. Hence,
probabilities of 1/9 and 2/9 are assigned to each odd and even number,
respectively. Therefore,
1 2 1 4
E = {1, 2, 3} and P(E) = + + =
9 9 9 9
Probability of an Event
Example: (a) How many three-digit numbers can be formed from the digits 0, 1, 2,
3, 4, 5, and 6 if each digit can be used only once? (b) How many of these are odd
numbers? (c) How many are greater than 330? Find the probability for the events in
part (b) and (c).

Solution: (a) Number of 3 digits can be formed by considering the options of digits
on the “Unit, Tens, and Hundred” place.
Number of options on the “units” place = 7 digits H T U
Number of options on the “Tens” place = 6 digits 2 1 3
Number of options on the “Hundreds” place = 5 digits 2 3 1
Number of 3-digits formed = n1 * n2 * n3 = 7 * 6 *5 = 210 ………..
Probability of an Event

Solution: (Continued): Number of odd numbers can also be found by checking the
options of digits on the “Unit, Tens, and Hundreds” place.
Number of options on the “units” place = 3 digits
Number of options on the “Tens” place = 6 digits
Number of options on the “Hundreds” place = 5 digits

Number of odd 3-digits formed = n1 * n2 * n3 = 3 * 6 *5 = 90

The same way, Number of even 3-dgits formed = n1 * n2 * n3 = 4 * 6 *5 = 210
𝟗𝟎
P(Selecting an odd number) =
𝟐𝟏𝟎
Probability of an Event
Example: In a poker hand consisting of 5 cards, find the probability of holding 2 aces
and 3 jacks.
Solution: The number of ways of being dealt 2 aces from 4 cards is = 4 = 6
2
and the number of ways of being dealt 3 jacks from 4 cards is = 4 = 4
3
By the multiplication rule, there are n = (6)(4) = 24 hands with 2 aces and 3 jacks. The
total number of 5-card poker hands, all of which are equally likely, is = 52
5
= 2,598,960.

Therefore, the probability of getting 2 aces and 3 jacks in a 5-card poker hand is:
4 4
∗ 24
2 3
P(Holding 2 Aces and 3 Jacks) = 52 =
2,598,960
5
Probability of an Event
Example: A statistics class for engineers consists of 25 industrial, 10 mechanical, 10 electrical, and
8 civil engineering students. If a person is randomly selected by the instructor to answer a question,
find the probability that the student chosen is (a) an industrial engineering major and (b) a civil
engineering or an electrical engineering major.

Solution:
(a) Since 25 of the 53 students are majoring in industrial engineering, the probability of event I,
selecting an industrial engineering major at random, is
25
P(I) =
53
(b) Since 18 of the 53 students are civil or electrical engineering majors, it follows that
18
P(C ∪ E) =
53
Probability of an Event
Example: If 3 books are picked at random from a shelf containing 5 novels, 3 books
of poems, and a dictionary, what is the probability that (a) the dictionary is
selected? (b) 2 novels and 1 book of poems are selected?
Solution:
Total books = 5 + 3 + 1 = 9
∗ 8
1
Number of Ways a dictionary can be selected = 1 2
Number of Ways 2 novels and 1 book of poem are selected = 5 ∗ 3 ∗ 1
2 1 0
∗ 8 ∗ 8
1 1
(a) P(the dictionary is selected) = 1 2 (b) P(2 novels and 1 book of poem are selected) = 1 2
9 9
3 3
Probability of an Event (Activity)
Determine the probability of the following events in drawing a
card from a standard deck of 52 cards.
a. A seven b. A black card c. An ace or a king d. A black 2 or a black 3
e. A red face card (king, queen or jack) f. What type of probability estimates are
these?
Mutually Exclusive Events
Two or more events are mutually exclusive events if no two of them have
outcomes in common.
Mutually Exclusive Events
Two or more events are mutually exclusive events if no two of them have
outcomes in common.
    
 Addition Laws of Probability
• Addition Law of Probability for Mutually Exclusive Events

If event A and event B are mutually exclusive, then

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B).
More generally, if events A, B, C, . . . are mutually exclusive, then
P(A or B or C or · · · ) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C)+ · · ·

• Addition Law of Probability for Non-Mutually Exclusive Events

If A and B are any two events, then
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A & B).
For 3 events: P(A ∪ B ∪ C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C)− P(A ∩ B) − P(A ∩ C) − P(B ∩ C) + P(A ∩ B ∩ C).

https://study.com/skill/learn/using-a-venn-diagram-to-understand-the-addition-rule-for-probability-explanation.html
Addition Laws of Probability
Example: If the probabilities are, respectively, 0.09, 0.15, 0.21, and 0.23 that a
person purchasing a new automobile will choose the color green, white, red, or
blue, what is the probability that a given buyer will purchase a new automobile that
comes in one of those colors?
Solution:
Let G, W, R, and B be the events that a buyer selects, respectively, a green, white,
red, or blue automobile. Since these four events are mutually exclusive, the
probability is
P(G ∪W ∪ R ∪ B) = P(G) + P(W) + P(R) + P(B)
= 0.09 + 0.15 + 0.21 + 0.23 = 0.68.
Addition Laws of Probability
Example: Data on people who have been arrested are published by the Federal
Bureau of Investigation in Uniform Crime Reports. Records for one year show that
73.9% of the people arrested were male, 12.0% were under 18 years of age, and
8.5% were males under 18 years of age. If a person arrested that year is selected at
random, what is the probability that that person is either male or under 18?
Solution: Let M = event the person obtained is male, and
E = event the person obtained is under 18.
We can represent the event that the selected person is either male or under 18 as (M or E). To find
the probability of that event, we apply the general addition rule to the data provided:
P(M or E) = P(M) + P(E) − P(M & E)
= 0.739 + 0.120 − 0.085 = 0.774.
The probability that the person obtained is either male or under 18 is 0.774.
Interpretation 77.4% of those arrested during the year in question were either male or under 18
years of age (or both).
Addition Laws of Probability

Example: The probability that an American industry will locate in Shanghai, China,
is 0.7, the probability that it will locate in Beijing, China, is 0.4, and the probability
that it will locate in either Shanghai or Beijing or both is 0.8. What is the probability
that the industry will locate (a) in both cities? (b) in neither city?
Solution:
P(Industry will locate in Shanghai, China) = 0.7 = P(A)
P(Industry will locate in Beijing, China) = 0.4 = P(B)
P(Industry will locate in either Shanghai or Beijing or both) = 0.8 = P(AUB)
(i) P(Industry will locate in both cities) = P(A∩B) = P(A) + P(B) –P(AUB) = 0.53
(ii) P(Locate in neither city) = P(A’ ∩ B’) = 1 - P(AUB) = 0.2
Some Results Relating to Probability
Following are the results help us to find out the probability of events occurred in
union and intersections.

(i) A ∩ φ = φ. (ii) A ∪ φ = A. (iii) A ∩ A’ = φ.

(iv) A ∪ A’ = S. (v) S‘ = φ. (vi) φ’ = S.

(vii) (A’ )’ = A. (viii) (A ∩ B)’ = A’ ∪ B’. (ix) (A ∪ B)’ = A’ ∩ B’.

Some Results Relating to Probability
Prove that: P(A’ ∩ B’) = 1+P(A ∩ B) − P(A) − P(B) = 1 – P(A U B)
LHS = P(A’ ∩ B’)
= P { (S-A) ∩ (S-B) }
= P { (S ∩ S) – (S ∩ B) – (S ∩ A) + (A ∩ B)}
=P{S–B–A+A∩B}
= P(S) – P(B) – P(A) + P(A ∩ B)
= 1 – P(A) – P(B) + P(A ∩ B) ∴ P(S) = 1
= 1 – {P(A) + P(B) –P(A ∩ B) }
= RHS
Probability of an Event: (An Example: Question)
In a high school graduating class of 100 students, 54 studied mathematics, 69
studied history, and 35 studied both mathematics and history. If one of these
students is selected at random, find the probability that:

(a) the student took mathematics or history;

(b) the student did not take either of these subjects;

(c) the student took history but not mathematics.

Probability of an Event: (An Example: Solution)
In a high school graduating class of 100 students, 54 studied mathematics, 69
studied history, and 35 studied both mathematics and history. If one of these
students is selected at random, find the probability that:

∴[Given Information: M = Math n(M) = 54, H = History n(H) = 69, Math & History =
M∩H = 35]

(a) the student took mathematics or history; P(MUH) =P(M) + P(H) – P(M ∩ H)

(b) the student did not take either of these subjects; P(M’ ∩ H’) = 1 – P(MUH)

(c) the student took history but not mathematics. P(H ∩ M’) = P(H) – P(H ∩ M)
Next Lecture

Multiplication Law of Probability

For
Independent & Dependent Events