ADDIS ABABA UNIVERSITY

ADDIS ABABA UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY (AAiT)

SCHOOL OF MECHANICAL AND INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING

Master of Science in Industrial Engineering

COURSE: - Reliability Engineering

Reviewed articles for chapter one and two.

PROGRAM: - Regular Post graduate Program (M.Sc.)

Year-I and Semester –II

Prepared by Id No

Date: 20/5/2020

Submitted to Dr Gezahegn T.
 Selected article for chapter one
Title: A Perspective on Reliability: Probability Theory and Beyond

Authors: Dr. Jane M. Booker, Dr. Nozer D. Singpurwalla, Dr. Thomas R. Bement.

Journal: Research Gate ( https://www.researchgate.net/publication/255269764 )

Year: January 2001

Introduction

Reliability is usually defined as a probability that the system performs to its required
specification, probability enters into the heart of these dilemmas, both philosophically and
practically.

Reliability assessment in the coming era is inclined to be characterized by a difficult

dilemma. The philosophical issues pertain to the interpretation and the quantification of
reliability.

Probability defines the mathematical meaning as likelihood of the occurrence of any

event in the doctrine of chances, or the ratio of the number of favorable chances to the whole
number of chances, favorable and unfavorable. Some famous quotations about probability
include: “Probability is the appearance of the agreement or disagreement of two ideas, by the
intervention of proofs whose connection is not constant, but appears for the most part to be
so.”

Reliability is a probability, and since probability can be interpreted in several ways, it follows
that there could also be several interpretations of reliability, and several ways of quantifying
reliability.

Research gap

 All contents of the paper is only emphasise on probability rather than contents of the
reliability.
 There are no detail definitions of the reliability and its requirement.
 There is no clear identification the relationship between reliability and probability.

Aim of the study

It focuses on the reliability and study beyond of the reliability with probability.
Material and methods

Objective

Quantitative measures of reliability and their associated uncertainties will remain integral to
system monitoring and tactical decision making. The challenge is to derive these
defensible measures in light of these dilemmas.

Study design

It uses deferent theory to express about probability:

 The Classical Theory,

 The A Priori or Logical Theory,
 The Relative Frequency Theory, and
 The Personality or Subjective Theory.

Depend up on the above theory commonly it uses calculus for four theories.

Method of measurement and calculation

Theoretical definitions of probability encompass sets and fields resulting in a mathematical

construct such as:
A set function P defined for all sets in a Boolean field F having these properties is
referred to as the probability measure on F:
* For every event, E, in Boolean field, F, there is associated a real non-negative number
P(E), called the probability of event E.
* If E1, E2, … is a countably infinite sequence of mutually disjoint sets in F whose
union is in F then P(U Ei) = P(Ei)
* P(R)=1 (R is the sample space.)
P is the probability measure (or probability distribution) on the Borel field F— B (F)

Result
 Probability is a way to quantify uncertainty, then it is also a way to quantify
reliability.
 From a philosophical standpoint, the personalistic or subjectivist interpretation of
probability does not lead to logical inconsistencies and the other difficulties of
communication.
  Furthermore, it enables us to make statements of uncertainty about one-of-a-kind
items, allows us to incorporate information from all sources deemed appropriate and
does not demand the availability of a large amount of hard data nor preclude its use if
available.

Discussion

Decision makers also require reliability assessments for problems with terabytes of data, such
as from complex simulations of system performance.

The subjectivist view of probability can provide such a paradigm for quantification of
uncertainty and information/data integration for determining reliability which, in turn, is
input into modern day decision making.

Conclusion

In reliability applications, membership functions can be useful for transforming qualitative

rules about how system conditions map into performance. For example, system conditions
could be characterized by the set {good, nominal, poor} and represented by a three
corresponding membership functions. Subjectivist probability is the unifying
standard for estimating uncertainties associated with these sources and for combining them
into an integrated reliability estimate (with uncertainty).

Selected article for second chapter

Title: How Reliable is Reliability Function?

Authors: Jezdimir Knezevic

Journal: ResearchGate (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/328783502)

Year: November 2018

Introduction

According to Knezevic [1] the purpose of the existence of any functional system is to do
work. The work is done when the expected measurable function is performed through time.
The necessity for the reduction in occurrences of operational failures started with the
advanced developments of military, aviation and nuclear power industries, where the
potential consequences could be significant.

Research Gap

Its only depend on the showing of the reliable is reliability function but there is no supportive
examples from service or manufacturing system which used to support their validity of the
study.

Aim of the study

To show how the reliable is reliability function.

Material and methods

Objectives

Objective of this paper is to raise the question how reliable are reliability predictions of
maintainable systems based on the Reliability Function.

Study design

Reliability function

Reliability Function of
Reliability Function of a
a System
Component

Measurements and Calculations

Being educated to use mathematical expressions for all engineering predictions, which
always have a single numerical outcome, the author has spent over a decade understanding
the fundamental physical meanings of the mathematical definitions for the reliability of
systems by the system reliability function.

For any component considered, the reliability function is defined in the following
manner:

where: R(t) is the reliability function, f(t) is the probability density function of the
random variable known as the Time To Failure (TTF) of a component.

The Reliability function for a system, Rs(t), is determined by the reliability functions
of the constituent components and the way they impact the failure of the system. For
example the reliability function for the system, whose reliability block diagram is
presented in Figure 1, is fully defined by the following mathematical expression:

Figure: Reliability Block Diagram for a Hypothetical System whose failure will occur if a
component A fails, or if components B and C fail

Result

 It determines the reliability of systems depend up on the different factors.

Strength of the study

  It shows reliability function on both reliability function of component and reliability
function of the system.

Weakness of the study

 There is no clear reason when it take some assumptions.

 There is no proper summarise of the study including conclusion.