Seminar Report Main With Out Index Notattions

INTELLIGENT POWER SCHEDULING AND ALERTING SYSTEM
A PROJECT REPORT
Submitted by
VINAYAK MOHAN (AEC16EC014)

ELEEJA JOHN (AEC16EC005)
SAHIR VK (AEC16EC010)
Under the guidance of
Mrs. PRIYANKA R RAVI

(Assistant Professor, Department of Electronics & Communication Engineering)
to
The APJ Abdul Kalam Technological University
in partial fulfilment of the requirement for the award of the Degree
of
Bachelor of Technology in
Department of Electronics and Communication Engineering
COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING ARANMULA
(Under CAPE, Estd by Govt. of Kerala)
ARANMULA
SEPTEMBER 2019
DEPARTMENT OF ELECTRONICS AND COMMUNICATION
ENGINEERING
COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING ARANMULA
(Under CAPE, Estd by Govt. of Kerala)
PATHANAMTHITTA-689533
CERTIFICATE
This is to certify that the project report entitled “INTELLIGENT POWER

SCHEDULING AND ALERTING SYSTEM” submitted by Mr. Vinayak Mohan
(AEC16EC014), ELEEJA JOHN (AEC16EC005), SAHIR VK (AEC16EC010) to
the APJ Abdul Kalam Technological University in partial fulfilment of the requirements
for the award of the Degree of Bachelor of Technology in Electronics and
Communication Engineering is a bonafide record of the project carried out by him
under our guidance and supervision. This report in any form has not been submitted to
any other University or Institute for any purpose.
PROJECT GUIDE: HOD:
Mr. DHANOOP K DANAPAL Mrs. PRESEEDA LAKSHMI
Assistant Professor Head of Department
Dept. of ECE Dept. of ECE
Place: Aranmula
Date:29/11/2019
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
It gives me immense pleasure to express my heartfelt gratitude to all those who helped
me in the completion of this project report. I would like to express my sincere thanks to
our honorable Principal Dr. SAJEEV V for giving every support and encouragement to
complete this project. I would like to sincerely thank my guide Mr DHANOOP K
DHANAPAL, Assistant Professor, Electronics and Communication Engineering
Department for his constant encouragement and valuable guidance.
I express my sincere gratitude to Mrs. PRESEEDHA LAKSHMI, Head of the

Electronics and Communication Engineering Department, for support and providing all
the help. I acknowledge the liberal help provided by the members of the college library
and institutional staffs. I thankfully remember all the faculty members, my family and
friends for their valuable suggestions and kind co-operation.
Above all, I thank our lord almighty, whose grace was enough for me and whose
incidence ways throughout the project.
VINAYAK MOHAN
ELEEJA JOHNN
SAHIR VK
i
DECLARATION
We hereby declare that the project entitled “INTELLIGENT POWER

SCHEDULING AND ALERTING SYSTEM” the award of the Degree of Bachelor
of Technology in Electronics and Communication Engineering Degree is our original
work and the project has not formed the basis for the award of any degree, associate
ship, fellowship or any other similar titles.
Place: Aranmula VINAYAK MOHAN
Date: 29/11/2019 ELEEJA JOHNN
• MDD10A is direction, activation of the motor.
ii
DECLARATION
ii
DECLARATION
SAHIR
VK
ii
ABSTRACT
The absence of effective load scheduling system often leads to random load shedding in order to
compensate generation. Uncertainty in load consumption at user level result’s in unplanned and over
expensive load usage, the proposed project uses an intelligent system in regulating the generation and
load using SCADA system. The intelligent power scheduling and alerting system (IPSAS) acquires
load usage data from customers using smart meter along with weather forecasting data, the load is
forecasted with the given data and SCADA network control generation and transmission. User are
advised to reduce the load at peak times when supply is less than load non cooperating user are
detached from the grid instead of detaching an area to compensate generation. IPSAS also alert user
when temporary maintenance or when grid is damaged, users are also provided with an option for
paying hourly bills.
iii
TABLE OF CONTENTS
CONTENTS PAGE NO.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT i
DECLARATION ii
ABSTRACT iii
LIST OF FIGURES iv
LIST OF TABLES v
SL.NO. TITLE PAGE NO.
1 INTRODUCTION 1
2 PROBLEM STATEMENT 2
3 SCOPE 3
4 LITERATURE SURVEY 4
5 OBEJECTIVE OF THE WORK 6
6 PROPOSED SYSTEM 7
7 9
8 CONCLUSION 10
9 REFERENCE 11
LIST OF FIGURES
FIG NO. TITLE PAGE NO
6.1 Block Diagram 11

7.1 Traditional meter and Smart meter 13
8.1 Block Diagram 17
8.2 Pinout Diagram 18
Circuit Arrangement
9.1 19
ThingSpeak 1
9.2 20
ThingSpeak 2
9.3 20
Simulation
9.4 28
Virtual Terminal
9.5 28
iv
LIST OF TABLES
TABLE NO. TITLE PAGENO.
7.1
v
Project Report INTELLIGENT POWER SCHEDULING AND
ALERTING SYSTEM
CHAPTER 1
1. INTRODUCTION
Based on a World Bank report, the amount of lost earnings due to electrical outages is estimated
at 5.47%. A big part of these outages are caused by energy shortages, specifically in developing
countries. Energy shortages might not be caused by lowered power production resources, but
due to power consumption patterns and energy utilization. Based on U.S. Department of
Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the electrical system energy loss is
46% for residential areas, and 52.1% for commercial entities, mostly from conversion losses.
These losses are the difference between input energy and generated electricity, which mostly
occurs in steam-electric power plant. Overall, two-third of the total input energy is lost in
conversion, 5% of generated electricity is lost in plant use, and another 7% in distribution and
transmission. Energy shortages are caused by an increase in power consumption, specifically
increase in peak electricity demand. Today’s smart meters provides two-way on time
communication via a smart grid, which helps provide access to details pertaining to consumer
power consumption behaviors. Due to today’s sophisticated metering infrastructure, smart
meters and smart grids are now equipped with a fast-two-way communication. It is beneficial to
have a modern intelligent power grid that can control energy consumption as well as increase the
efficiency of the grid via load management.
CE, Aranmula 1 Dept. of Electronics & Communication

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2. PROBLEM STATEMENT
The traditional electrical power grid is unidirectional in nature, where the electricity flows from
power generation facilities to end users. This system has served well for the last hundred years.
Recently, however, it has been subjected to government deregulation and has suffered from
several technical, economic, and environmental issues. Modern society demands this system to
be more reliable, scalable, and manageable while also being cost effective, secure, and
interoperable .The smart grid is expected to revolutionize existing electrical grid by allowing
two-way communications to improve efficiency, reliability, economics, and sustainability of the
generation, transmission, and d

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istribution of electrical p ower.

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3. SCOPE OF STUDY
The objectives of IPSAS is to provide grid observability, controllability of assets,

enhance power system performance and security, reduction in operating cost, maintenance and
system planning. To accommodate a wide variety of generation centralized and distributed,
intermittent and dispatchable. It facilitates communication with energy management system in
smart buildings to enable customers to manage their energy use and reduce their energy cost. It
provides improved power quality to the users., real time information, lower operation cost and
electricity available to everyone. It uses information technology for monitoring and control to
optimize its capital and operational cost and to predict system problems in order to avoid power
outages and power quality problems. To make the nation energy independent. IPSAS is not felt
to be a necessity only for the integration of distributed generation and renewable energy sources
but also for active participation of consumers for improvements in overall system efficiency,
meet the peak demand without investment in generation and variable pricing system.

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4. LITERATURE REVIEW
Abolfazl salami, MohammadMehdi Farsi (2015): Demand side management using direct load
control for residential and industrial areas — Demand Side Management (DSM) can be a
solution for providing the energy at peak times. In this paper an effective DSM is proposed that not
only reduces the peak costs, but also is practicably possible in industrial and residential areas, which
is performed by using Direct Load Control (DLC). According to use different strategies of DLC use,
different results are found that can be either useful for consumers or utility. Produced structures by
DLC are optimized by Integer Genetic Algorithm that is discussed in this paper. Simulation results
for each DLC operation strategies are presented and an executive comparison for these strategies is
done. NOWDAYS, Power Systems Restructuring (PSR) is an inevitable necessity for anyone who
has a few knowledge about the power systems. PSR optimizes the costs using private competitive
market. Furthermore, restructuring have more advantages, including incentives for increasing
investments in power systems, increasing energy efficiency, incentives to build renewable plants,
DSM capability and Demand Response (DR). DR by using consumer’s effects on economic
relations of market and change in consumption pattern, increases the feasibility of achieving PSR
purposes, which can be obtained by shifting consumption energy from peak times to other times,
energy storage in off time and consumption energy in peak time or any other method that is caused
by DR. In addition, DR in order to increase reliability of the system, coordinates demand and supply
of the system. Direct Load Control program is an important part of DR. Utilities have been
controlling their customer’s consumption energy using this method for four decades in their
individual zones. DLC changes load profile using a preset program that could be implemented in
distribution networks or programing consumer’s equipment by Information Technology (IT).
Programing controllable equipment such as washing machines, air conditioning systems, water
heaters, pumps, dish washing machines and other devices can be used for optimal consumption and
other contingencies in the network. In fact, this plan ensures consumption reduction of utility, to
reduce a considerable amount of requirements for additional production. Consumers are encouraged
by cooperating with utility in DLC program. In some cases, according to contracts, consumers must
pay surcharges, if don’t cooperate with utility. Residential consumers and small companies pay their
bills based on time of use tariff. On time and off time (or delay) are important parts of DLC plan.

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These parameters are obtained from predetermined optimization program. In recent studies, DLC is
used for peak reduction , provide Large-Scale Demand Response , wind power integration -, provide
ancillary services , maximizing participant’s benefits , and critical-peak pricing . Based on other
view, papers are classified by programing algorithm. It can use dynamic programing , heuristic
optimization , genetic algorithm and integer linear programming . In some researches, optimization
algorithm is used for one type of equipment, such as refrigerators , multiple PHEVs and Air
Conditioner Loads . In this paper it’s been tried to provide an implemented algorithm that can be
programed as on time and off time for controllable equipment in residential and industrial areas.
This work has been proposed optimization algorithm not only for all type of equipment but also
reduces the load peak. In the next section, power market structure and participants target is
illustrated and target curve for utility and consumer is formulated and display how DSM is driven
and controlled by utility or consumer. In section three, algorithm structure and programing targets
are illustrated. Section four deals with mathematic formulation used in optimization. In section five,
how different scenarios can help us to reach different targets is simulated and results are displayed.
Finally, advantages and disadvantages are noted in conclusions.
Lekshmi. M, Adithya Subramanya K. N(2019): Short-Term Load Forecasting of 400kV Grid

Substation Using R-Tool and Study of Influence of Ambient Temperature on the Forecasted
Load- Load forecasting helps to determine future electric load based on the historical data of the
electrical system. Precise models for forecasting the electric power load are indispensable for the
planning and operation of the utility. Load forecasting can also be used for load switching, demand-
side management, identify and predict the energy consumption pattern to support an electric utility for
future system operations. Many techniques can be used for load forecasting. The commonly used load
forecasting technique is time series load forecasting. There are various factors which have an
influence on the load and its forecast. Load forecasting using the time series ARIMA model for the
forecast of the load is adopted in the present work. The Short-term is considered for the forecast i.e.
one-day and oneweek data along with the ambient temperature data as the independent variable.
Forecast for four cases is carried out for determining the accuracy of the forecast. The error is
expressed as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). It is found that when the ambient temperature data is
considered, the accuracy of the forecasted value increases as indicated by the reduction in RMSE. For
one day load data without considering the ambient temperature it was found to be 6.009955 and when
the ambient temperature of one day is considered it was 5.990357. Similarly, for one-week data

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without ambient temperature is was 4.68697 and with ambient temperature is was found to be
4.682843. The result obtained also prove that the exogenous data and number of data samples
considered will play an important role in load forecasting accuracy using time series forecasting. The
electrical power systems are of enormous importance for the current society. It is hard to visualize the
present civilization without the use of electric power. The electrical power system comprises of
mainly three stages, the generation system where power generation takes place using different inputs,
the transmission system where the generated power is delivered from the generating end to the
distributing end and the distribution system that supplies the power demand of the consumers. So, it
becomes necessary to maintain the difference between production and utilization to a minimum
always. If this difference is appreciable, then there is a chance of occurrence of system disturbance
which might prove fatal to the grid and cost a huge sum of money to repair and reestablish the
balance. Hence, to maintain the reliability of the grid, it is vital that even in the face of huge dynamic
demand, the generation-load difference must always be kept in check. So, the transmission and
distribution systems use electrical load forecasting techniques to enhance the power flow in the
transmission and distribution networks as well as to reduce contingency and overloads. Load
forecasting plays a critical role in energy management of the power system. Accurate load forecasting
aids the electric system operator to make unit commitment decisions, schedule device maintenance
and also plays an imperative role in minimizing the generation cost and is indispensable for the
reliability of power system. The system operators use the forecasted results as a base to check
whether the system is vulnerable. Sometimes, corrective actions are needed based on the study of the
system, such as load shedding, bi-lateral purchase of energy in the day-ahead market, asset
commitment and reduce the peak load demand. Load forecasting helps in power system planning
since the infrastructural expansion and maintenance can save a significant amount of capital. The load
forecasting requires a sufficient amount of data for the accurate forecast and the weather conditions
has an effect on the forecast. In this paper the study on how accuracy varies with the number of
samples and based on weather condition.
Dacian I. Jurj, Dan D. Micu, Alexandru Muresan(2018): Overview of Electrical Energy

Forecasting Methods and Models in Renewable Energy - The following paper presents an
overview of the actual forecasting methods and models used in renewable energy systems. The
purpose of the study is to summarize the available forecasting tools in order to select the most
efficient approach. The paper showcases the forecasting of production and consumption of electrical

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energy for local and global systems and also the topic associated with it. Forecasting and analyzing
the future values of a time series is one of the most important issues that occur in many fields, ranging
from finance and economics to engineering and social science. Bringing a new frame of reference, the
predictive models are now essential in all the processes that require optimization, “it is difficult to
make predictions, especially about the future”- Neils Bohr . As we know, the electrical power
network has become more and more like an ecosystem that grows and becomes more complex day by
day. Accurately predicting energy production and consumption have become a need because of the
continuous demand for expanding and interconnection. Creating a large amount of energy not only
causes unbalance in the network but also comes along with energy losses. On the other side, having
an unexpected peak in demand can actually harm the network by creating undesirable spikes in
electricity prices and transmission congestions.
Sadık Yıldız, Mustafa Burunkaya(2019): Web Based Smart Meter for General Purpose Smart
Home Systems with ESP8266 - In this paper, open source and modular smart home system is
designed and implemented. The Consumer Internet of Objects (CIoT) approach is adopted in this
design. WiFi-based CIoT network has been designed to monitor energy consumption in smart homes.
In the CIoT network, the current and voltage values have been measured with the current sensor SCT-
013 CT 100A and 9 V AC/AC step-down transformer connected to the Arduino Nano development
board. Real power, apparent power and power factor values have been calculated by using measured
current, voltage values and phase angle. These measured and calculated values have been sent to the
ESP8266 NodeMCU development board by Software Serial technique. The ESP8266 provides
HTML based user interface to computers and mobile devices connected to the CIoT network via the
TCP/IP protocol. An access point has been used the WiFi connection. The user interface is displayed
via the web browser of the devices with TCP/IP protocol. Four buttons on the user interface control
the four relays connected to the CIoT network. Experimental studies show that the designed system
could be used in general purpose applications such as energy monitoring in smart home systems.
The need for electricity is increasing every day due to developing technology and increasing
population . An important part of the grid loading is composed of residential and commercial
consumers. The load behavior of each building is important for operators because the effects on the
grid cannot be neglected. Smart homes have been developed to help reduce a building's electricity
consumption and improve energy efficiency. Nowadays, smart homes have become an important

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component of smart grids . Therefore, the need to control the electricity energy consumption in these
houses increases . To achieve this, the used methods and technologies should be easy to install and
cost effective [4]. Today, the Internet of Things (IoT) has become widely used in a wide range of
areas such as the automotive industry, logistics, healthcare, smart grids, smart cities and smart
homes .
IoT is classified into two categories including the Internet of Industrial Objects (IIoT) and
the Internet of Consumer Objects (CIoT) . In this study, CIoT systems have been discussed. In the
houses, energy consumption could be monitored by controlling the home devices like the boiler, air
conditioner, dishwasher and lighting systems by using IoT systems. Traditional detection
methodologies are known to be labor intensive and complex for practical application. The use of
CIoT systems with wifi sensing allows the design of more cost-effective, non-invasive and more
suitable smart home systems . These systems offer easier systems to use hardware and software .
Today, every home has WiFi network, computers and mobile devices. This enables CIoT networks to
be created in a practical and easy way. With these CIoT networks, the data obtained from the sensors
are displayed with computers and mobile devices via the WiFi network . As a result of these values,
devices connected to CIoT networks can be controlled in real time by computer and mobile devices.
These devices controlled in real time, provide more sustainable and more efficient energy control . In
one study, low-cost design of an IoT Energy Monitoring System has been designed . In another study,
IoT Architecture for Smart Grids has been given . In some studies, Design of an IoT Smart Home
System and related concepts have been examined . In other study, WiFi and Smart Home parameters
were examined . In this study, a CIoT network has been designed to be used in homes or commercial
building. In the designed network, the measured values of the low voltage network in terms of
voltage, current, power and power factor have been displayed in the web browser over the WiFi
network and the devices connected to the CIoT network via the web browser were controlled.
Amir Safdarian, Mahmud Fotuhi-Firuzabad, Matti Lehtonen (2014), This paper

presents a system-wide demand response management model to coordinate demand response
provided by residential customers. Demand response enabled by time-varying prices can propel
the power industry towards a greater efficiency. However, non-coordinated response of
customers may lead to severe peak rebounds at periods with lower prices. In this regard, a
coordinated demand response scheme can mitigate concerns about the peak rebounds.
Objective of the model is to flatten the total load profile subject to minimum individual cost of

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customers. The model is first formulated as a bi-level optimization problem. It is then casted
into equivalent single-level problems which are solved via an iterative distributed algorithm.
Home load management (HLM) modules embedded in customers’ smart meters are
autonomous agents associated with the algorithm. In the algorithm, at first, HLM modules, in
response to prices announced by the utility, optimize daily operation of household appliances
and send back the scheduled load profiles. Then, the total load profile is calculated and released
by the utility. Thereafter, the HLM modules asynchronously update their schedule such that,
given their least energy expenses, the most evenly distributed total load profile is achieved
point in which no further improvement is obtained.

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Project Report INTELLIGENT POWER SCHEDULING
AND ALERTING SYSTEM
5. OBJECTIVES OF THE WORK
The main objective is to use of smart direct load control and load shedding in reducing the
peak-to- average ratio. It helps reduce power outages by distributing the shortage of supply to
a wide range of customers. Load shedding enables us to shift the appliance load from peak
load to off-peak and reduce the amount of generating capacity. In fact, to entirely fulfil
customers’ power demand, the supply needs to satisfy the peak demand instead of the average
demand, which requires the installation of additional power plant and transmission
infrastructures. To address this problem, the peak-to-average ratio (PAR) needs to be reduced.
The Smart Demand Response makes the power consumption changes as per the grid’s
customer. The scenario affecting the changes will be high for enrolled customers in the case of
load reduction in peak times. An important issue with existing demand response programs is
the fact that they enrolled customers for certain periods during specific times. Therefore, the
grid operator cannot rely on those consumers for non-peak load reduction. DR is the action
taken by power consumers to respond to supply shortages for a short amount of time. As seen
by the definition of DR, the customers respond to the shortage of load for short periods of
time. DR is designed for use by medium and high-power consumers, since the algorithm
presented in this paper encompass clients within any ranges of power consumption. Using the
Internet of Things, millions of clients will be linked to the grid operator with real time
communication.

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6 Smart Grid
“A Smart Grid is an electricity network that can intelligently integrate the actions of all users
connected to it – generators, consumers and those that do both – in order to efficiently deliver
sustainable, economic and secure electricity supplies.” A smart grid uses sensing, embedded
processing and digital communications to enable the electricity grid to be observable (able to be
measured and visualized) ,controllable (able to manipulated and optimized), automated (able to adapt
and self-heal), fully integrated (fully interoperable with existing systems and with the capacity to
incorporate a diverse set of energy source .A smart grid uses digital technology to improve reliability,
security, and efficiency (both economic and energy) of the electric system from large generation,
through the delivery systems to electricity consumers and a growing number of distributed-generation
and storage resources. A Smart Grid incorporates the benefits of advanced communications and
information to deliver real-time information and enable the near-instantaneous balance of supply and
demand on the electrical grid. One significant difference between today’s grid and the Smart Grid is
two-way exchange of information between the consumer and the grid. For example, under the Smart
Grid concept, a smart thermostat might receive a signal about electricity prices and respond to higher
demand (and higher prices) on the grid by adjusting temperatures, saving the consumer money while
maintaining comfort. Figure 6.1 shows a snapshot of the deliverance of the smart grid.
Fig 6.1 SMART GRID

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Introducing Smart Grid to the electric power grid infrastructure will:
 ensure the reliability of the grid to levels never thought possible

 allow for the advancements and efficiencies yet to be envisioned
 exerting downward pressure on electricity prices
 maintain the affordability for energy consumers
 provide consumers with greater information and choice of supply
 accommodate renewable and traditional energy resources
 enable higher penetration of intermittent power generation sources
 revolutionizing not only the utility sector but the transportation sector through the integration of
electric vehicles as generation and storage devices
 finally, the smart grid will promote environmental quality by allowing customers to purchase
cleaner, lower-carbon-emitting generation, promote a more even deployment of renewable energy
sources, and allow access to more environmentally-friendly central station generation.
Furthermore, the smart grid will allow for more efficient consumer response to prices, which will
reduce the need for additional fossil fuel-fired generation capacity, thereby reducing the emission
of CO2 and other pollutants.
The existing electricity grid is a product of rapid urbanization and

infrastructure developments in various parts of the world in the past century. Though they exist in
many differing geographies, the utility companies have generally adopted similar technologies. The
growth of the electrical power system, however, has been influenced by economic, political, and
geographic factors that are unique to each utility company. Despite such differences, the basic
topology of the existing electrical power system has remained unchanged. Since its inception, the
power industry has operated with clear demarcations between its generation, transmission, and
distribution subsystems and thus has shaped different levels of automation, evolution, and
transformation.

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Fig 6.2 : ORDINARY GRID

According to Figure 6.2 the existing electricity grid is a strictly hierarchical system in which power
plants at the top of the chain ensure power delivery to customers’ loads at the bottom of the chain.
The system is essentially a one way pipeline where the source has no real-time information about the
service parameters of the termination points. The grid is therefore over engineered to withstand
maximum anticipated peak demand across its aggregated load. And since this peak demand is an
infrequent occurrence, the system is inherently inefficient. Moreover, an unprecedented rise in
demand for electrical power, coupled with lagging investments in the electrical power infrastructure,
has decreased system stability. With the safe margins exhausted, any unforeseen surge in demand or
anomalies across the distribution network causing component failures can trigger catastrophic
blackouts. To facilitate troubleshooting and upkeep of the expensive upstream assets, the utility
companies have introduced various levels of command-and-control functions. A typical example is
the widely deployed system known as supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA). Given the
fact that nearly 90% of all power outages and disturbances have their roots in the distribution
network, the move towards the smart grid has to start at the bottom of the chain, in the distribution
system. Moreover, the rapid increase in the cost of fossil fuels, coupled with the inability of utility
companies to expand it at all. their generation capacity in line with the rising demand for electricity,
has accelerated the need to modernize the distribution network by introducing technologies that can
help with demand-side management and revenue protection.

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7 Internet of Things(IoT)
The internet of things, or IoT, is a system of interrelated computing

devices, mechanical and digital machines, objects, animals or people that are provided with unique
identifiers (UIDs) and the ability to transfer data over a network without requiring human-to-human
or human-to-computer interaction.The role of IoT in smart gird is crucial. Internet of Things is in
large part the enabler of smart gird as its technological and infrastructural components are mostly
IoT-based.The data on energy consumption comes from sensor-enabled IoT devices, appliances and
the hubs which control a smart house or any other connected space. This data is then used to analyze
electricity usage, calculate cost, remotely control appliances, make decisions on load distribution,
recognize devices, detect malfunctions and risks of an outage, etc. Sensor data is the core of the smart
grid operation. Processing, sorting, cleaning, analysis and visualization of real-time IoT data provide
visibility in the supply chain from the moment the energy is produced to the point it’s consumed by
an end-user. Work with data enables automation, control, management, problem detection and
prediction in a smart grid. Application of machine learning to better understand and use big data is
already common in the Internet of Things, and smart grid is not an exception. We know for a fact that
machine learning is good at working with massive datum sets, identifying trends, making predictions.
Therefore, the use of advanced algorithms to analyze IoT data created in the smart grid supply chain
is another way to make it more efficient. . Such integration enables efficient resource utilization to
optimize energy consumption, install and manage distributed energy sources, as well as to
exchange the generatedpower. The grid at large has many devices that can be considered as IoT
objects such as reclosers, switches, capacitor banks, transformers, IEDs, smart sensors, and actuators
in the substations. With the IoT in place, the analyses can occur on real-time data from the
motor. That makes the analysis quick, painless, and more accurate. IoT brings real-time
alerts, ability to predict energy demand, usage patterns, and ways to optimize energy
consumption.

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8. PROPOSED SYSTEM
User side Forecasting and Controlling

Signal
Wi-fi/GSM
Controlling Wi-fi/GSM
Station Wi-fi/GSM
Server
Processor
Processor
Voltage
Current Computer
Ordinary Meter
Power
Time Slot
Figure 6.1:Block Diagram
8 .1 SMART METER
Generation Side
Either tap the inputs to the digital display to a processor from an ordinary meter or use ready made
smart meter with WIFI connection. We need to obtain data such as voltage ,current, power, power
factor, frequency with respect to time. With the help of a processing unit either send the data
between a certain period of time or continuously send the data. Hourly basis data transmission is
preferred to reduce data size
8.2 FORECASTING SIDE

Generation System
Usage data is continuously tapped Weather data is also obtained ARIMA model is used for
forecasting. Load forecasting for each consumer as well as for a small grid is done, Power
consumption pattern is continuously plotted to find unauthorized or unrequested peak usage which
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will lead to load unbalancing. Forecasted data is made available at the load dispatch center. With the
help of forecasted data, power is efficiently used.
8.3 FORECASTING CRITERIA

Forecasting data for a given day requires certain data such as consumption pattern on the previous
day, any natural or other calamities, Medical condition of a given area.
8.4 ALERTING SIDE

When unauthorized peak is formed, a message will be sent to the consumer to reduce load. If the
consumer did not comply by reducing the load, then only that consumer is detached from the grid. At
the peak time, top consumers based on usage are notified to reduce the load with the help of
forecasted data. When consumer did not comply by reducing the load at the peak, then only those
consumers are removed from the grid by doing selective load shedding. Consumers are notified each
time a maintenance or a disruption occur in a grid with accurate time for the grid to be operational so
that consumers can plan accordingly
8.1 METERING INFRASTRUCTURE
The world is changing towards automatic wireless technologies, which prefer not only
reducing human efforts but is helping in making systems automatic and efficient. A system is said to
be intelligent when it can decide what to do without any instruction and can work automatically. An
Electric or Energy meter measures the total electrical energy in units used by the appliances which
consume electrical energy from the main power supply. Electromechanical and Electronic meter are
two types of meter Available in the market to measure the unit consumption. Electromechanical
meters are commonly used in village areas, where the uses of modern technology are not as high as it
is in cities. Electromechanical meters have become out of date nowadays.

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Figure 8.1: Traditional meter and Smart meter
Electronic meters replace electromechanical meters. This meter consists of LCD/LED to display the
reading. Calibration Led is used on the meter which shows the units consumed. Manpower is required
to read the meter and note down the reading. The reading on the meter is increasing which is used to
generate the electricity bill. An IOT Based Smart Electricity Meter and billing System does the same
task without human efforts. IOT Based SEM system is controlled using nodemcu, which is a
microcontroller board. The purpose behind choosing this board is its efficiency and memory. It is
more efficient in terms of memory and GPIO. The data obtained is then sent to the cloud through the
internet. Data obtained can be easily sent wirelessly over long distance without any noise disturbance
using the internet. As the data is directly sent to the cloud there is no occurrence of range and distance
problem and is highly accurate and efficient because of no human interference. Other wireless
technologies such as Zigbee, Bluetooth etc. have limited range thus cannot be used over very long
distances effectively. This project envisages the use internet and the concept of IOT by which the
base station, as well as users, remain updated with the current consumed units, changing the present
problems faced by the electricity board and the user. In the present billing system the distribution
companies are unable to keep track of the changing maximum demand of consumers. The consumer
is facing problems like receiving due bills for bills that have already been paid as well as poor
reliability of electricity supply and quality even if bills are paid regularly. The remedy for all these
problems is to keep track of the consumers load on timely basis, which will held to assure accurate
billing, track maximum demand and to detect threshold value. These are all the features to be taken
into account for designing an efficient energy billing system. The present project “IPSAS” addresses
the problems faced by both the consumers and the distribution companies. and deals with smart
energy meter, which utilizes the features of embedded systems i.e. combination of hardware and
software in order to implement desired functionality. With the use of GSM modem the consumer as
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well as service provider will get the used energy reading with the respective amount, Consumers will
even get notification in the form text through GSM when they are about to reach their threshold
value, that they have set. Also with the help of Wi-Fi modem the consumer can monitor his consumed
reading and can set the threshold value through webpage. This system enables the electricity
department to read the meter readings monthly without a person visiting each house. This can be
achieved by the use of Arduino unit that continuously monitor and records the energy meter reading
in its permanent (non- volatile) memory location. This system continuously records the reading and
the live meter reading can be displayed on webpage to the consumer on request. This system also can
be used to disconnect the power supply of the house when needed.
8.11 MONITORING OF POWER QUALITY AND RELIABILITY

Power quality covers the voltage quality supplied by the distribution network and the
current quality of the loads. Adequate voltage quality in AC-networks means that the voltage does not
deviate too much from the ideal voltage. An ideal alternating voltage is a perfect sinusoid with the
rated constant amplitude and frequency. In multiphase systems it must also have certain phase order
and symmetry with respect to the phases. A more specific voltage quality description is the European
Standard EN 50160. Most voltage quality problems originate from customers, but the distribution
company is responsible for the voltage quality at the point of customer connection. The kWh-meter is
in this point. Continuous monitoring of voltage quality enables fast and accurate response to customer
complaints. It also enables preventive reaction to power quality problems, before any harm or damage
to the network or to the customers occurs. The traditional approach of bringing power quality
analyser to the complaint location after a complaint is inefficient and labour intensive and is
inadequate as a proof of power quality during the incident causing the complaint. Recording of the
power supply interruptions, voltage dips and some voltage quality characteristics as experienced by
the customers helps distribution companies to understand where network investments are most
needed and what kind of power quality related advice to the customers is relevant. Roughly the same
voltage is received by many customers; thus detailed monitoring of the voltage quality at every kWh-
meter is not needed. Integrating power quality monitoring to smart metering of consumption can give
advantages such as sharing dispersed equipment, installation, maintenance and communication
networks.

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8.12 LOAD ANALYSIS, MODELING AND FORECASTING
Consumption data for electricity can be used for load analysis. E.g. hourly data
combined with information about type of consumer can be used to construct user profiles, e.g. a
standardized profile for single family houses with electric heating or supermarkets or an industrial
sector. Such profiles can be based on a statistical sample and can be representative for the type of end
user type. The dependence of the load on the type of the day as well as on outdoor temperature and
possibly other environmental variables can be modelled. By combining simple information with the
load profiles, time variations, total energy use and peak demand can be estimated and forecasted.
Such information is useful for retail suppliers and their customers. It is also useful for the DSO when
planning or operating the power distribution network. Detailed energy use information can also be
used to evaluate energy savings campaigns. This can be done by combining information about the end
use activity with the development of energy consumption. Potential targets for energy efficiency
improvements can be identified by comparing properties of the building (taken from databases and
building requirements) with the measured consumption.
8.13 SMART METERS

Often a meter is called smart to imply that it includes significant data processing and storage for
various purposes such as:
 monitoring that the meter is installed correctly and working properly
 data communication with the meter using secure and open standard protocols
 updating the meter software remotely over the communication network
 multi utility metering (electricity, gas, heat and water)
 calculating and monitoring power quality characteristics
 automatic reading of consumption measurements for billing and settlement,
 providing real time consumption data to various actors (distributor, retailer, end user)
 management of tariffs
 load response (load management and control)
Smart meters have been mentioned in the literature already in the early 1990´s, (De Almeida and
Wine, 1993) and (Koponen et al., 1996), for instance. In 1993 the solid state meters were still rather
new and 10 - 20 times as expensive as the electromechanical meters. Thus their use was mainly

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limited to large customers. The following capabilities were considered necessary:
 two way communication
 collection of load data for demand side evaluation, tariffing, load forecasting, and planning
 programmable time resolution ranging from one minute to one day
 tariff management (dynamic tariffs, remote meter reading, automatic printing of bills)
 load control
 information to customers
 distribution automation and monitoring the quality of supply.
When the number of remotely readable smart meters increased, it became necessary to develop better
systems for meter reading and data management. An example of the state of the art in mid 1990's is
given in (Saari et al., 1996). With such systems the metered data started to become available to other
systems, but most these other systems were not yet ready to use such data. These other systems
include systems for distribution network automation and management, and customer information.
Similarly, timely consumption data from billing meters was seldom used to end use energy
management and energy automation or for regular assessment of the potential for energy savings.
Static meters are replacing electromechanical meters. Distributed data processing and storage
capacity have become very cheap in mass produced meters and these factors do not any more limit
the possibilities to add smartness to small customer meters.
9.1 METER SIDE DATA ACCUSITION
ENERGY LOAD
METER
V
Relay
P
N
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230V TO 12V
CONVERTER
VOLTAGE
DE
REGULATOR
Figure 9.1User Side Block Diagram

9.11.ENERGY METER:
Energy Meter or Watt-Hour Meter is an electrical instrument that measures the amount of electrical energy
used by the consumers. Utilities are one of the electrical departments, which install these instruments at every
place like homes, industries, organizations, commercial buildings to charge for the electricity consumption by
loads such as lights, fans, refrigerator, and other home appliances. The basic unit of power is watts and it is
measured by using a watt meter. One thousand watts make one kilowatt. If one uses one kilowatt in one-hour
duration, one unit of energy gets consumed. So energy meters measure the rapid voltage and currents, calculate
their product and give instantaneous power. This power is integrated over a time interval, which gives the
energy utilized over that time period.
9.12NODE-MCU (ESP8266)
Node MCU is an open source IOT platform. It includes firmware which runs on the ESP8266 Wi-Fi
SOC from Express if Systems, and hardware which is based on the ESP-12 module. The term "Node
MCU" by default refers to the firmware rather than the development kits. The firmware uses the LUA
scripting language. It is based on the LUA project, and built on the Express if Non-OS SDK for
ESP8266. It uses many open source projects, such as LUA-CJISON and SPIFFS.
9.13.VOLTAGE REGULATOR:
Voltage sources in a circuit may have fluctuations resulting in not providing fixed voltage outputs. A
voltage regulator IC maintains the output voltage at a constant value. 7805 IC, a member of 78xx
series of fixed linear voltage regulators used to maintain such fluctuations, is a popular voltage
regulator integrated circuit (IC). The xx in 78xxindicates the output voltage it provides. 7805 IC
provides +5 volts regulated power supply with provisions to add a heat sink.

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Figure 9.2 Pinout Diagram
9.14 Relay
Relay is a switch which controls (open and close) circuits electromechanically. The main operation of
this device is to make or break contact with the help of a signal without any human involvement in
order to switch it ON or OFF. It is mainly used to control a high powered circuit using a low power
signal. It is used to cut of power to the energy meter remotely depending upon the consumption
threshold.
9.2.WORKING PRINCIPLE
When the Energy Meter gets supply from the main (substation or power station) to the input
terminals of the energy meter. Generally energy meter has two input terminals and two output
terminals .From the input terminals of the energy meter input is given to ac converter (220v to 12v)

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by shorting the both input of energy meter and input terminals of the ac converter. This converter
converts 230V AC to 12V DC. This 12V DC supply is output of the converter. This output is given as
input to the voltage regulator. The output of the regulator is given as input to the Node MCU to Vin.
The output of the energy meter is given to the load (. One of the output terminals is connected to lamp
load by shorting the lamp terminal. The data lines of LCD display is tapped and connected to the
digital terminals of Node MCU. The processed data that is showing in the meters display is obtained
at the NodeMcu. By Node MCU we connected to the thingsspeak interfaces.
Figure 9.3:Circuit Arrangement
9.3 THINGS SPEAK

ThingSpeak is a platform providing various services exclusively targeted for building IoT
applications. It offers the capabilities of real-time data collection, visualizing the collected data in the
form of charts, ability to create plugins and apps for collaborating with web services, social network
and other APIs.It is IOT platform used to control Arduino, Node MCU. The core element of
ThingSpeak is a ‘ThingSpeak Channel’. A channel stores the data that we send to ThingSpeak and
comprises of 8 fields for storing data of any type - These can be used to store the data from a sensor
or from an embedded device. We add voltage, current, real power, power factor, frequency in field 1
to 5 respectively.

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Figure 9.4 ThingSpeak 1
When you read or write data to your channel using the ThingSpeak API, you need the appropriate
read and write permissions. The 16-digit API key allows you to read from a private channel and write
to a channel. You do not need an API key to read from a public ThingSpeak channel.
Figure 9.5 ThingSpeak 2
The channel display all the data that has been uploaded from the energy meter through NodeMCU

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9.4 CODE
#include "math.h"
#include <EEPROM.h>
#include <LiquidCrystal.h>
#include <ESP8266WiFi.h>
#include <SoftwareSerial.h>
SoftwareSerial espSerial = SoftwareSerial(2,3);
Int Relay 8 ;
LiquidCrystal lcd(7, 6, 5, 4);
String apiKey = "36AP3UC6IHTEIV6R"; // replace with your channel's thingspeak WRITE key
String ssid="ipsas"; // Wifi network SSID
String password ="007"; // Wifi network password
boolean DEBUG=true;
int i;
int refreshNum = 0;
int cutoffNum = 0;
const float dataPin1 = 9;
const float dataPin4= 13;
float voltageCalb = 1;
float currentCalb = 18.9;
float powCalb = 0.92;
float Ioffset;
float unitconst = 3600000;
float InsVoltage ;
float InsCurrent ;
int rmsVoltage ;
float rmsCurrent ;
int realPower;
float pf;
float units = 0;
float cost = 0;
float rate = 7;
int startTime;
int endTime;
int frequency;
void EEPROM_writeDouble(int ee, double value)
{
byte* p = (byte*)(void*)&value;
for (int i = 0; i < sizeof(value); i++)
EEPROM.write(ee++, *p++);
}
double EEPROM_readDouble(int ee)

{
double value = 0.0;
byte* p = (byte*)(void*)&value;
for (int i = 0; i < sizeof(value); i++)
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*p++ = EEPROM.read(ee++);
return value;
}
void showResponse(int waitTime){
long t=millis();
char c;
while (t+waitTime>millis()){
if (espSerial.available()){
c=espSerial.read();
if (DEBUG) Serial.print(c);
}
}
}
void thingSpeakRead(){
String cmd = "AT+CIPSTART=\"TCP\",\"";
cmd += "184.106.153.149";
cmd += "\",80";
espSerial.println(cmd);
if (DEBUG) Serial.println(cmd);
if(espSerial.find("Error")){
if (DEBUG) Serial.println("AT+CIPSTART error");
return false;
}
String talkBackCommand;
char charIn;
String talkBackURL = "GET /channels/385007/fields/8/last?api_key=AHMMG7YLXARHC1UB&results=2\
r\n" ;
cmd = "AT+CIPSEND=";
cmd += String(talkBackURL.length());
delay(100);
if(1){
espSerial.print(talkBackURL);
if (DEBUG) Serial.print(talkBackURL);
}
else{
espSerial.println("AT+CIPCLOSE");
if (DEBUG) Serial.println("AT+CIPCLOSE");
}
delay(3000);
while (espSerial.available()) {
charIn = (char)espSerial.read();
talkBackCommand += charIn;
}
Serial.print(talkBackCommand[53]);

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if(talkBackCommand[60] != '0' && talkBackCommand[59]=='0'&& talkBackCommand[58]==':'){
cutoffNum = 1;
}
else if(talkBackCommand[60] != '0' && talkBackCommand[59]=='1'&&
talkBackCommand[58]==':'&&cutoffNum != 2){
for(i = 0;i<2000;i++){
digitalWrite(10,LOW);
}
cutoffNum = 2;
}
}
boolean thingSpeakWrite(int value1, float value2, int value3,float value4,float value5,float value6,int value7)
{
String cmd = "AT+CIPSTART=\"TCP\",\"";
cmd += "184.106.153.149";
cmd += "\",80";
if(espSerial.find("Error")){
if (DEBUG) Serial.println("AT+CIPSTART error");
return false;
}
String getStr = "GET /update?api_key="; // prepare GET string
getStr += apiKey;
getStr +="&field1=";
getStr += String(value1);
getStr += "\r\n\r\n";
cmd = "AT+CIPSEND=";
cmd += String(getStr.length());
delay(100);
if(espSerial.find(">")){
espSerial.print(getStr);
if (DEBUG){ Serial.print(getStr);
digitalWrite(11,HIGH);
delay(70);
delay(70);

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delay(70);
delay(70);
}
}
else{
espSerial.println("AT+CIPCLOSE");
// alert user
if (DEBUG) Serial.println("AT+CIPCLOSE");
lcd.begin(16, 2);
lcd.print(" Reconnecting... ");
connect_wifi();
return false;
}
return true;
}
void refresh(){
lcd.clear();
lcd.begin(16, 2);
lcd.setCursor(0, 0);
// Print a message to the LCD.
if(refreshNum % 2 == 0){
lcd.print("Kwh: pf:");
lcd.setCursor(0,1);
lcd.print("Rs : ");
lcd.print(units);
lcd.setCursor(4,1);
lcd.print(cost);
lcd.setCursor(11,1);
lcd.print(pf);
}
else{
lcd.print("V: V P: W");
lcd.setCursor(0,1);
lcd.print("I: A F: Hz");
lcd.print(rmsVoltage);
lcd.setCursor(2,1);
lcd.print(rmsCurrent);
lcd.print(realPower);
lcd.print(frequency);
}
}
void connect_wifi(){
DEBUG=true;
espSerial.begin(115200);
espSerial.println("AT+RST");

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showResponse(1000);
espSerial.println("AT+CWMODE=1");
showResponse(1000);
espSerial.println("AT+CWJAP=\""+ssid+"\",\""+password+"\""); // set your home router SSID and password
showResponse(5000);
if (DEBUG) Serial.println("Setup completed");
}
void setup() {
pinMode(1, OUTPUT);
pinMode(10, OUTPUT);
for(i = 0;i<2000;i++){
InsCurrent += (analogRead(currentPin)-Ioffset);
}
Ioffset = InsCurrent/2000;
units = EEPROM_readDouble(0);
lcd.begin(16, 2);
lcd.print(" Connecting... ");
enable software serial
Serial.begin(9600);
connect_wifi();
refresh();
}
void loop()
{
digitalWrite(12, HIGH);
float SumVol = 0;
float SumCurr = 0;
float numSam = 1;
float sumVinsIins = 0;
int flag = 0;
frequency = 0;
if(refreshNum>61){
EEPROM_writeDouble(0,units);
espSerial.println("AT+RST");
showResponse(1000);
refreshNum = 0;
}
startTime = millis();
while ((endTime-startTime) < 5000){
InsVoltage = analogRead(voltagePin);
InsCurrent = (analogRead(currentPin)-Ioffset);
Serial.println(InsCurrent);
if(InsVoltage != 0)

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{
flag = 0;
numSam++;
SumVol += InsVoltage;
SumCurr += abs(InsCurrent);
sumVinsIins += InsVoltage*InsCurrent;
}
else if(flag == 0)
{
frequency++;
flag = 1;
}
endTime = millis();
}
startTime = millis();
rmsCurrent = 1.11*SumCurr/numSam/currentCalb;
rmsVoltage = int(1.11*SumVol/numSam/voltageCalb);
realPower = int(powCalb*sumVinsIins/numSam/voltageCalb/currentCalb);
pf = realPower/rmsCurrent/rmsVoltage;
units += realPower * 5/unitconst;
frequency = frequency/5;
cost = units * rate;
if(pf > 1 || pf <-1){
pf = 1;
}
if(refreshNum%2==0) {
thingSpeakWrite(rmsVoltage,rmsCurrent,realPower,units,cost,pf,frequency}
refreshNum++;
Serial.print("rmsV: ");
Serial.print(rmsVoltage);
Serial.print(" rmsI: ");
Serial.print(rmsCurrent);
Serial.print(" RealPower: ");
Serial.print(realPower);
Serial.print(" pf: ");
Serial.print(pf);
Serial.print(" frequency: ");
Serial.print(frequency);
Serial.print(" number of samples: ");
Serial.print(numSam);
Serial.print(" units: ");
Serial.print(units);
Serial.print(" cost: ");
Serial.print(Ioffset);
Serial.println();
if(cutoffNum != 3){
refresh();
thingSpeakRead();
}
if(rmsVoltage > 300 || rmsCurrent > 20 || frequency > 600){
cutoffNum=3 ;
}

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if(cutoffNum==1||cutoffNum==3 ){
for(i = 0;i<1000;i++){
digitalWrite(10, HIGH);
}
lcd.clear();
lcd.begin(16, 2);
lcd.print(" Emergency cut off ! ");
if(rmsVoltage > 300)
{
lcd.print(" High voltage ");
}
else if(rmsCurrent > 20)
{
lcd.print(" High Current ");
}
else if(frequency > 60)
{
lcd.print(" High frequency ");
}
else
{
lcd.print(" Manual off ");
}
delay(3000);
}
}
}

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9.5.METERING SIDE SIMULATION
Figure 9.4 Simulation
For simulation we use proteus pro simulation software. By installing library’s for energy meter and
NodeMCU, we can use the same in proteus energy meter. We take resistor, capacitor and inductor as
load since most of the electric appliances are either resistive, inductive or capacitive loads. Four data
lines are used to transfer output of meter to the node mcu.AC voltage is applied between the terminals
and output is obtained at NodeMCU which shows the different variables in the virtual terminal
Figure 9.5 Virtual terminal

The virtual terminal shows the real time measurements of voltage, current ,power ,power factor,
frequency.
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10 FORECASTING SIDE
For forecasting we use Raspberry pi because of its processing capabilities as high amount of data is
required to be processed. Raspberry Pi is a dynamic microcontroller that is capable of just about

anything a computer is, It runs with the Python programming language.
10.11 FORECASTING METHODS

Load forecasting is extremely important in electric energy generation, transmission, distribution and
markets. Load forecast has been a central and an integral process in the planning and operation of
electric utilities. The Purpose of load forecasting is proper planning and operation of a power utility
requires an adequate model for electric power load forecasting . Load forecasting plays a key role in
helping an electric utility to make important decisions on power market, load switching, voltage
control, network reconfiguration, and infrastructure development. Here we have discussed three type
of load forecasting which are:- Long-term electric load forecasting used to supply electric utility
company management with prediction of future needs for expansion, equipment purchases or staff
hiring. This is longer than a year. Medium-term forecasting, used for the purpose of scheduling fuel
supplies and unit maintenance. This is usually from a week to a year. Short-term forecasting, it is
used to supply necessary information for the system management of day-to-day operations and unit
commitment.
10.12 Short Term Load Forecasting

Short-Term Load Forecasting is basically a load predicting system with a leading time of one hour to
seven days, which is necessary for adequate scheduling and operation of power systems. It has been
an essential component of Energy Management Systems (EMS). For proper and profitable
management in electrical utilities, short-term load forecasting has lot of importance. Short term load
forecasting methods are:
1) Similar Day Look up Approach: Similar day approach is based on searching historical data of
days of one, two or three years having the similar characteristics to the day of forecast. The
characteristics include similar weather conditions, similar day of the week or date .
2) Regression based Approach: Linear regression is a technique which examines the dependent
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variable to specified independent. The independent variables are firstly considered because changes
occur in them unfortunately. In energy forecasting, the dependent variable is usually demand of the
electricity because it depends on production which on the other hand depends on the independent
variables.
3) Time Series Analysis: Time series forecasting is based on the idea that reliable predictions can be
achieved by modeling patterns in a time series plot, and then extrapolating those patterns to the
future. Using historical data as input, time series analysis fits a model according to seasonality and
trend. Time series models can be accurate in some situations, but are especially complex and require
large amounts of historical data.
4) Artificial Neural Networks: ANN is a soft technique used in various optimization processes. This
method is able to perform non-linear modelling and adaptation. It does not require assumption of any
functional relationship between load and weather variables in advance. We can adapt the ANN by
exposing it to new data. The ANN is also currently being investigated as a tool in other power system
problems such as security assessment, harmonic load identification, alarm processing, fault diagnosis,
and topological observability.
5) Expert Systems: An expert system is a computer program, which has the ability to act as an expert.
This means this computer program can reason, explain, and have its knowledge base expanded as new
information becomes available to it. The load forecast model is built using the knowledge about the
load forecast domain from an expert in the field .
6) Fuzzy Logic: Fuzzy logic based on the usual Boolean logic which is used for digital circuit design.
In Boolean logic, the input may be the truth value in the form of “0” and “1”. In case of fuzzy logic,
the input is related to the comparison based on qualities.
7) Support Vector Machines: Support Vector Machines (SVM) is the most powerful and very recent
techniques for the solution of classification and regression problems. In support vector machines,
linear functions are used to create linear decision boundaries in the new space. In the case of neural
network, the problem is in the choosing of architecture and in the case of support vector machine,
problems occurs in choosing a suitable kernel

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10.13 FACTORS AFFECTING SHORT TERM LOAD FORECASTING
1) Time Factor: Time is the most important factor in short term load forecasting because its impact on
consumer load is highest. From observing load curve of several different grid stations it is found that
the load curve has “time of the day” property, also it has “day of week”, “week of month” and “month
of season” property.
2) Economic Factor: Since electricity nowadays became people’s daily life necessity so it has turned
to be a commodity. Thus economy of the state has also an impact on the usage of electricity.
Economic factor has more importance in long term forecasting, but it also can impact the load curve
for short term load forecasting. Economic factors such as price of electricity, management of load and
degree of industrialization have a significant impact on system average load and system maximum
demand .
3) Weather Factor: Weather is the most important independent variable for load forecasting. The
effect of weather is most prominent for domestic and agricultural consumers, but it can also alter the
load profile of industrial consumers. Load forecasting models use weather forecast and other factors
to predict the future load, thus to minimize the operational cost.. Unpredicted sea breeze, after moon
thunderstorms, back door fronts is some of the environmental factors that can decrease the
temperature and thus causing overestimated load forecast. Thus we are producing more power than
required.The weather factor includes: Temperature: Temperature can also alter the conductivity of the
transmission lines. Thus temperature can affect the overall carrying capability of the transmission
lines. High temperature can increase not only the resistance of the transmission lines, but also it can
alter the reactance of line, due to temperature induced expansion of the length of transmission line.
4) Humidity: Humidity is a term used for the amount of water vapors in air. Humidity has no effect
on real temperature but it can intensify the severity of hot climate. So it is concluded from the above
observation that for the prediction of daily load of domestic consumers we must consider apparent
temperature instead of real temperature. But if we are dealing with an area having all types of
consumers from industrial to agricultural and domestic “temperature humidity index” can be
employed as the affecting factor for load forecasting .

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10.2 ARIMA MODEL

The acronym of ARIMA stands for Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average.
ARIMA model is a standard linear time series model that accepts the present values and predicts the
future values in the series. It is represented as ARIMA (p, d, q) where parameter p is referred as the
order for auto-regression, parameter d is the order for non-seasonal difference and q is the order for
the moving average. The ARIMA model accepts time series data as input (combination of past
values) and predicts future values as output. Predicting the future values guides in applying many
applications such as demand estimations, stock prices estimation, economic estimations and sales
representations There are two types of ARIMA processes, seasonal and non-seasonal ones.
Seasonal ARIMA model

Seasonality is a regular pattern of changes that repeats over s time periods. A seasonal ARIMA model
is expressed as ARIMA (p, d, q) (P, D, Q)s where P is the order of seasonal auto regressive part, D is
the order of seasonal differencing part, Q is the order of seasonal moving average part and s is the
number of time periods of seasonal cycle .
Different seasonal ARIMA models are:

ARIMA (1, 0, 0) (0, 1, 0): First-order autoregressive term in non-seasonal part and seasonal
differencing of order 1. Y(t) =   y(t 12) (y(t 1)  y(t 13)) [30] where  is constant and (y(t
1)  y(t 13)) is the seasonal difference term 8 .
ARIMA (1, 0, 1) (0, 1, 1): First-order autoregressive term and moving average term in the non-
seasonal part and first-order moving average term in the seasonal part with seasonal differencing of
order 1. Y(t) =   y(t 12) (y(t 1)  y(t 13))e(t 1) e(t 12) e(t 13) [30] where  is
the constant  is Seasonal Moving Average(1) coefficient (y(t 1)  y(t 13)) is seasonal difference
term  is the Moving Average(1) coefficient .
ARIMA (0, 1, 1) (0, 1, 1): First-order moving average term, differencing term in the non seasonal
part and first-order moving average term with seasonal differencing. Y(t) = y(t 12) (y(t 1)  y(t
13))  e(t 1) e(t 12) e(t 13) [30] where  is SMA(1) coefficient  is MA(1) coefficient.

Engineering
AND ALERTING SYSTEM
ARIMA (2, 0, 1) (2, 1, 0) : Second-order autoregressive term, first-order moving average term in non
seasonal part and second-order autoregressive term in seasonal term with seasonal differencing of
order 1. Y(t) =  + y(t 12)  y(t  24) + (y(t 1)  y(t 13))  e(t 1) where  is constant (y(t
1)  y(t 13)) is seasonal difference term  is the MA(1) coefficient It is not recommended to use
more than one order of seasonal differencing or more than two orders of total differencing . Seasonal
ARIMA present the series in terms of its past values at lag equal to the length of the period (s), while
the non-seasonal ARIMA does it in terms of its past values at lag 1.
Non-Seasonal ARIMA model: A non-seasonal ARIMA model is represented as ARIMA (p, d, q)

model where p is number of autoregressive terms, d is number of non seasonal differences and q is
moving average term .
Different non-seasonal ARIMA models are,
ARIMA (2, 1, 1): An ARIMA model with autoregressive term of order 2 and moving average term
of order 1 with differencing of order 1. Y(t) = d + a(1). y(t 1)  a(2). y(t  2) – e(t) – c(1). e(t 1)
where d is the differencing term a(1) is first order autoregressive coefficient a(2) is second order
autoregressive coefficient c(1) is first order moving average coefficient y(t 1), y(t  2) are series in
previous values e(t) and e(t 1) are residuals at period t and (t 1) 9 .
ARIMA (1, 1, 1): A mixed model of autoregressive and moving average terms of order 1 with
differencing of order 1. Y(t) = d+ a(1). y(t 1) – e(t) – c(1). e(t 1) where a(1) is first order
autoregressive coefficient d is differencing term c(1) is first order moving average coefficient y(t 1)
is series in previous values e(t) and e(t 1) are residuals at period t and t 1.
ARIMA (1, 1, 0): First order autoregressive term with non seasonal differencing of order 1. Y(t) = d
+ a(1). y(t 1) where a(1) is first order autoregressive coefficient d is differencing term y(t 1) is
series in previous values .
ARIMA (0, 1, 1): First order moving average term with non seasonal differencing of order 1. Y(t) = d
– e(t) – c(1). e(t 1) where c(1) is first order moving average coefficient d is differencing term e(t)
and e(t 1) are residuals at period t and t 1.
Engineering
AND ALERTING SYSTEM
10.3 CODE
from pandas import read_csv
from pandas import datetime
import math
from matplotlib import pyplot
from statsmodels.tsa.arima_model import ARIMA
from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error
#def parser(x):
#return datetime.strptime('190'+x, '%Y-%m')
w_key = S4S4T0SRYVWLE87OJG'
r_key = 'TAHK052BVSAXOKH8'
channel_id = 1093332
ob = Thingspeak(write_api_key=w_key, read_api_key=r_key, channel_id=channel_id)
ob.post_cloud(value1=temperature,value2=humidity)
print(ob.read_cloud(result=3))
ob4 = Weather_details(key=key,city=city)
long, lat, voltage, current, power, power factor, frequency,body = ob4.get_weather_data()
print(long, lat, humidity, wind_speed, wind_degree, sunrise, sunset,body)
series = read_csv('loaddata.txt', usecols=[3], engine='python', skipfooter=3)
X = series.values
print(len(series),len(X))
size = int(len(X) * 0.80)
print(size)
train, test = X[0:size], X[size:len(X)]
history = [x for x in train]
predictions = list()
print(len(test))
for t in range(len(test)):
model = ARIMA(history, order=(5,1,0))
model_fit = model.fit(disp=0)
output = model_fit.forecast()
yhat = output[0]
predictions.append(yhat)
obs = test[t]
history.append(obs)
print('time =%f predicted=%f, expected=%f' % (t,yhat, obs))
error = mean_squared_error(test, predictions)
# calculate root mean squared error only on the test set
testScore = math.sqrt(mean_squared_error(test, predictions))
print('Test Score: %.2f RMSE' % (testScore))
#error computation
summation = 0
for i in range(len(test)):
summation = summation + ((test[i]-predictions[i])/test[i])
n=len(test)
accuracy = 100-((1/n)*summation*100)
print("The Prediction accuracy is: %f" % accuracy)
print('Test MSE: %.3f' % error)

# plot
pyplot.plot(test)
pyplot.plot(predictions, color='red')
pyplot.show()

Engineering
AND ALERTING SYSTEM
11 ALERTING SYSTEM
The alerting system consist of a NodeMCU, GSM module and liquid crystal display .its primary use
is to alert the consumer on consumption pattern. The instantaneous power consumption can be
compared with a threshold value so the consumers who go beyond this limit can be alerted on their
usage and directed to reduce usage in order to remain active in the grid. The NodeMCU fetches the
instantaneous data from smart meter along with the threshold value formulated by the forecasting
system and starts to compare the values when peak consumption is occurring in the grid. Users with
consumption pattern exceeding the threshold values are notified to reduce the consumption through
GSM module and wait for ten minutes to comply, if not only that user is detached from the grid
Figure 11.1 Alerting System

Engineering
AND ALERTING SYSTEM
11.1 CODE
#include "math.h"
#include <EEPROM.h>
#include <LiquidCrystal.h>
#include <ESP8266WiFi.h>
#include <SoftwareSerial.h>
SoftwareSerial espSerial = SoftwareSerial(2,3);
String apiKey = " TAHK052BVSAXOKH8";
String ssid="ipsas"; // Wifi network SSID
String password ="007"; // Wifi network password
const int rs = PB11, en = PB10, d4 = PB0, d5 = PB1, d6 = PC13, d7 = PC14;
LiquidCrystal lcd(d4, d5, d6, d7);
int receive = 0;
float threshold;
const int FieldNumber1 = 3;
void setup()
{
Serial.begin(115200);
WiFi.mode(WIFI_STA);
ThingSpeak.begin(client);
lcd.begin(16,2);
pinMode(PA0,INPUT);
pinMode(PA1,INPUT);
lcd.print("STM32 WITH GSM");
lcd.setCursor(0,1);
lcd.print("SIM800C");
Serial1.begin(9600);
delay(1000);
lcd.clear();
}
void loop()
{ if (WiFi.status() != WL_CONNECTED)
{
Serial.print("Connecting to ");
Serial.print(ssid);
Serial.println(" ....");
while (WiFi.status() != WL_CONNECTED)
{
Engineering
AND ALERTING SYSTEM
WiFi.begin(ssid, pass);
delay(5000);
}
Serial.println("Connected to Wi-Fi Succesfully.");
}
lcd.clear();
lcd.setCursor(0,0);
lcd.print("S to Send sms");
lcd.setCursor(0,1);
lcd.print("R to Receive sms");
delay(100);
long power = ThingSpeak.readLongField(counterChannelNumber, FieldNumber1, myCounterReadAPIKey);
statusCode = ThingSpeak.getLastReadStatus();
if (statusCode >=threshold)
{
Serial.print("user001 pc > limit: ");
Serial.println(“reduce load”);
SendMessage();
}
else
void SendMessage()
{
lcd.clear();
lcd.print("Sending sms");
delay(1000);
Serial1.println("AT+CMGF=1");
delay(1000);
Serial1.println("AT+CMGS=\"+919656318514\"\r");
delay(1000);
Serial1.println("limit ecxeeded");
Serial1.println((char)26);
delay(1000);
lcd.clear();
lcd.print ("pc>limit");
lcd.println("reduce load");

Engineering
AND ALERTING SYSTEM
delay(1000);
}
void RecieveMessage() //
{
lcd.clear();
lcd.print("Receiving sms");
Serial1.println("AT+CNMI=2,2,0,0,0"); // AT Command to recieve a live SMS
delay(1000);
while(1)
{
if(Serial1.available())
{
do
{
while ( !Serial1.available() );
} while ( '"' != Serial1.read() );
do
{
do
{
do
{
do
{
do
{

Engineering
AND ALERTING SYSTEM
receive = Serial1.read();
lcd.clear();
while(1)
{
if ( receive == '\r' )
break;
else
lcd.write(receive);
}
}
}
}

Engineering
AND ALERTING SYSTEM
12 RESULT
Firstly we have to switch on the mains. The digital energy meter measures the various parameters
across the load in this case three filament bulb. The Node MCU is used to connect internet with the
monitoring hardware system. The power utilized by the load is displayed in the cloud via, Thing
Speak cloud in graphical format. It shows time to time power utilization as well as the voltage,
current, power factor and frequency of the load/loads connected to the system. Each field is
assigned with different variables, which enables graphical fields that can be viewed later. Each
channel is associated with a read key and a write API key,through which iot devices can read or
write on to the channel. Energy Monitoring using IOT is an innovative application of internet of
things developed to control home appliances remotely over the cloud from anywhere in the world.
The system updates the information in every 1 to 2 seconds on the internet using public cloud
THINGSPEAK..
Figure 12.1 Thinkspeak Output

Engineering
AND ALERTING SYSTEM
Load forecasting is extremely important in electric energy generation, transmission, distribution

and markets. Load forecast has been a central and an integral process in the planning and operation
of electric utilities. The Purpose of load forecasting is proper planning and operation of a power
utility requires an adequate model for electric power load forecasting . The data that has been
written into the Thinkspeak channel through the write API key is fetched by the raspberry pi using
read API key. The system write the current values on a excel sheet which becomes historical data
in future predictions. we use Arima model for forecasting as it shows good correlation with actual
consumption. The data that has been written into the Thinkspeak channel through the write API key
is fetched by the raspberry pi using read API key. ARIMA model predicts the power consumption
with time using some preloaded historical data shows the predicted power consumption.
Figure 12.2 :ARIMA output

Engineering
AND ALERTING SYSTEM
Figure 12.3 ARIMA output plot

The forecasted value can been seen through thingsspeak by the load dispatch center for generation
and transmission controlling. At the same time the current power consumption data is fetched by
alerting system which comprises of NodeMCU module and LCD display which continuously
monitor each users consumption in order to identify over consumption at peak time. A threshold is
set by the forecasting system on amount of power that can be consumed by each user at peak time.
When a user crosses this threshold value a message is sent to the users phone through GSM module
requesting to reduce the consumption. If the users consumption is not reduced in the following 10
minutes, authorities can impose fine to the consumer or remotely detaching the consumer from the
grid with the help of a relay system placed in smart meter.
Figure 12.4 User Alert Message Sending

Engineering
AND ALERTING SYSTEM
13.BENEFITS
1 Eliminates manual monthly meter readings
2. In case any technical difficulty occurs or there is any electrical issue, that would be notified to the
user.
3. The provider companies can offer various schemes and offers for energy consumption.
4. It offers the ability to check the power consumption remotely.
5. It will help to provide the accurate power consumption.
6. As soon as there is an exceed in the power consumption with respect to the set threshold
consumption value, the relay will be cut off the power supply
7. Reduces the number of blackouts and system-wide electricity failures
8. Avoids the capital expense of building new power plants

Engineering
AND ALERTING SYSTEM
14.FUTURE SCOPE
 The different types TOU tariff can be designed by analyzing the different load patterns
 A user centered application can be developed so that user can

 Pre pay the bills
 Remotely shut down household supply
 Set limits on usage daily or monthly
 Energy theft unit can be integrated to find misuse or using energy without paying.

Engineering
AND ALERTING SYSTEM
15.CONCLUSION
The absence of effective load scheduling system often leads to random load shedding in order to
compensate generation. Uncertainty in load consumption at user level result’s in unplanned and
over expensive load usage, the proposed project uses an intelligent system in regulating the
generation and load using SCADA system. After successful implementation, an ordinary grid will
be transformed into a smart grid. IPSAS will ensure efficient usage of electric power. More focus
is given to customers at the same time it will remove their uncertainty towards the grid. It provides
better customer service and more accurate bills. The intelligent power scheduling and alerting
system (IPSAS) acquires load usage data from customers using smart meter along with weather
forecasting data, the load is forecasted with the given data and SCADA network control
generation and transmission. User are advised to reduce the load at peak times when supply is less
than load non cooperating user are detached from the grid instead of detaching an area to
compensate generation. IPSAS also alert user when temporary maintenance or when grid is
damaged, users are also provided with an option for paying hourly bills. Hence it creates
awareness on power consumption and a way to save and manage power by each individual
consumer and also eradicates electricity deficit during summer which will make consumer a self-
interested guardian of power consumption and avoids wastage along with the electricity bill
monitoring. The immediate opportunities of smart metering include the areas of data access,
energy efficiency, billing transparency, compliance and performance which unfolds more exciting
possibilities in the upcoming future. This project creates awareness about power consumption and
real time monitoring by the application of IOT. It has a vast importance in the field of energy
management and monitoring, and it provides the interaction between customer and the service
providers. The proposed project with its real time application for power management and
monitoring provides a reliable, comfortable and important application at the same time it avoids
human intervention. The project depicts the arranging and managing of good Energy Meter and
speaks to however great Energy Meter is utilized for Automatic Meter Reading. it's the chief
efficient usage to create mankind amid this period of innovation. With the present sweetening
inside the utilization of innovation to encourage mankind, it's partner efficient and sensible use of
blessing systems. This paper moreover demonstrates that however customer will deal with the
heap by abuse great Energy Meter. It gives ease in taking the meter readings.

Engineering
AND ALERTING SYSTEM
16.REFERENCE
[1] Y. Tang, M. Li, and Q. Wang, "A framework of theoretical research on load
control in grid cyber physical system," in Cyber Technology in
Automation, Control, and Intelligent Systems (CYBER), 2016 IEEE
International Conference on, 2016,
[2] L. Yao, Z. Damiran, and W. H. Lim, "Direct load control of central air
conditioning systems using fuzzy optimization," in Environment and
Electrical Engineering (EEEIC), 2016 IEEE 16th International Conference
on, 2016,
[3] A. Gholian, H. Mohsenian-Rad, and Y. Hua, "Optimal industrial load

control in smart grid," 2014.
[4] F. Shokooh, J. Dai, S. Shokooh, J. Taster, H. Castro, T. Khandelwal, et al.,

"An intelligent load shedding (ILS) system application in a large industrial
facility," in Industry ApplicationsConference, 2005. Fourtieth IAS Annual
Meeting.
Conference Record of the 2005
[5] H. K. Nguyen, J. B. Song, and Z. Han, "Demand side management to reduce

peak- to-average ratio using game theory in smart grid," in Computer
Communications Workshops (INFOCOM WKSHPS), 2012 IEEE
Conference on, 2012
[6] N. Gatsis and G. B. Giannakis, "Residential load control: Distributed

scheduling and convergence with lost AMI messages," IEEE Transactions on
Smart Grid, vol. 3
[7] K. Metaxiotis, A. Kagiannas, D. Askounis, and J. Psarras, "Artificial

intelligence in short term electric load forecasting: a state-of-the-art survey
for the researcher," Energy Conversion and Management, vol. 44,
[8] H. Al-Hamadi and S. Soliman, "Short-term electric load forecasting based

on Kalman filtering algorithm with moving window weather and load
model," Electric Power Systems Research, vol. 68

Engineering

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INTELLIGENT POWER SCHEDULING AND ALERTING SYSTEM

VINAYAK MOHAN (AEC16EC014)

Mrs. PRIYANKA R RAVI

The APJ Abdul Kalam Technological University

in partial fulfilment of the requirement for the award of the Degree

Department of Electronics and Communication Engineering

COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING ARANMULA

(Under CAPE, Estd by Govt. of Kerala)

This is to certify that the project report entitled “INTELLIGENT POWER

PROJECT GUIDE: HOD:

Mr. DHANOOP K DANAPAL Mrs. PRESEEDA LAKSHMI

Assistant Professor Head of Department

Dept. of ECE Dept. of ECE

I express my sincere gratitude to Mrs. PRESEEDHA LAKSHMI, Head of the

We hereby declare that the project entitled “INTELLIGENT POWER

Place: Aranmula VINAYAK MOHAN

Date: 29/11/2019 ELEEJA JOHNN

• MDD10A is direction, activation of the motor.

CONTENTS PAGE NO.

SL.NO. TITLE PAGE NO.

5 OBEJECTIVE OF THE WORK 6

FIG NO. TITLE PAGE NO

6.1 Block Diagram 11

TABLE NO. TITLE PAGENO.

CE, Aranmula 1 Dept. of Electronics & Communication

CE, Aranmula 2 Dept. of Electronics & Communication

istribution of electrical p ower.

CE, Aranmula 3 Dept. of Electronics & Communication

The objectives of IPSAS is to provide grid observability, controllability of assets,

CE, Aranmula 4 Dept. of Electronics & Communication

CE, Aranmula 5 Dept. of Electronics & Communication

Lekshmi. M, Adithya Subramanya K. N(2019): Short-Term Load Forecasting of 400kV Grid

CE, Aranmula 6 Dept. of Electronics & Communication

Dacian I. Jurj, Dan D. Micu, Alexandru Muresan(2018): Overview of Electrical Energy

CE, Aranmula 7 Dept. of Electronics & Communication

CE, Aranmula 8 Dept. of Electronics & Communication

Amir Safdarian, Mahmud Fotuhi-Firuzabad, Matti Lehtonen (2014), This paper

CE, Aranmula 9 Dept. of Electronics & Communication

CE, Aranmula 1 Dept. of Electronics & Communication

5. OBJECTIVES OF THE WORK

CE, Aranmula 11 Dept. of Electronics & Communication

Fig 6.1 SMART GRID

CE, Aranmula 12 Dept. of Electronics & Communication

Introducing Smart Grid to the electric power grid infrastructure will:

 ensure the reliability of the grid to levels never thought possible

The existing electricity grid is a product of rapid urbanization and

CE, Aranmula 13 Dept. of Electronics & Communication

Fig 6.2 : ORDINARY GRID

CE, Aranmula 14 Dept. of Electronics & Communication

The internet of things, or IoT, is a system of interrelated computing

CE, Aranmula 15 Dept. of Electronics & Communication

User side Forecasting and Controlling

Figure 6.1:Block Diagram

8.2 FORECASTING SIDE

8.3 FORECASTING CRITERIA

8.4 ALERTING SIDE

8.1 METERING INFRASTRUCTURE