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    B. Squared: Value Forecast

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    lemon
    This document compares the forecasting accuracy of 3 different time series forecasting methods: 3 month moving average, exponential smoothing with alpha=0.2, and exponential smoothing with alpha=0.3. It provides the actual values, forecasts, errors, and mean squared errors for each method over a 12 month period. The 3 month moving average method had the lowest mean squared error, indicating it provided the most accurate forecasts compared to the two exponential smoothing methods. Moving averages smooth fluctuations but are less sensitive to changes and cannot detect trends well.

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    B. Squared: Value Forecast

    Uploaded by

    lemon
    4 views3 pages
    This document compares the forecasting accuracy of 3 different time series forecasting methods: 3 month moving average, exponential smoothing with alpha=0.2, and exponential smoothing with alpha=0.3. It provides the actual values, forecasts, errors, and mean squared errors for each method over a 12 month period. The 3 month moving average method had the lowest mean squared error, indicating it provided the most accurate forecasts compared to the two exponential smoothing methods. Moving averages smooth fluctuations but are less sensitive to changes and cannot detect trends well.

    Original Description:

    managerial science module 2 part 4 group activity

    Original Title

    manscie m2p4

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    This document compares the forecasting accuracy of 3 different time series forecasting methods: 3 month moving average, exponential smoothing with alpha=0.2, and exponential smoothing with alpha=0.3. It provides the actual values, forecasts, errors, and mean squared errors for each method over a 12 month period. The 3 month moving average method had the lowest mean squared error, indicating it provided the most accurate forecasts compared to the two exponential smoothing methods. Moving averages smooth fluctuations but are less sensitive to changes and cannot detect trends well.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    4 views3 pages

    B. Squared: Value Forecast

    Uploaded by

    lemon
    This document compares the forecasting accuracy of 3 different time series forecasting methods: 3 month moving average, exponential smoothing with alpha=0.2, and exponential smoothing with alpha=0.3. It provides the actual values, forecasts, errors, and mean squared errors for each method over a 12 month period. The 3 month moving average method had the lowest mean squared error, indicating it provided the most accurate forecasts compared to the two exponential smoothing methods. Moving averages smooth fluctuations but are less sensitive to changes and cannot detect trends well.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    of 3

    b.

    3WMA Method Forecast Absolute Squared


    Week Value Forecast Error Error Error MSE
    35.73=11.91
    =

    I 18 3

    2 13

    3 16

    4 11 15.67 -4.67 4.67 21.81

    5 17 13.33 3.67 3.67 13.47

    6 14 14.67 -0.67 0.67 0.45

    7 14

    TOTAL : 35.73

    c. Exponential smoothing ✗ =
    0.2 Forecast Absolute Squared
    Week Value Forecast Error Error Error ↳ •
    ""
    MSE = = 13.03
    I 18 5

    2 13 18 -5 5 25

    3 16 17 -
    l I 1

    4 11 16.8 -5.8 5.8 33.64

    5 17 15.64 1.36 1.36 1- 85

    6 14 15.91 -1.91 1.91 3.65

    7 15.53

    TOTAL : 65.14

    d- better forecast results since its MSE is


    The 3 week moving average method provides
    lower than the MSE calculated Using exponential smoothing method .
    c Exponential smoothing ✗ =
    0.3 Forecast Absolute Squared
    Week Value Forecast Error Error Error 60-97
    MSE = =
    12.19
    I 18 5

    2 13 18 -5 5 25

    0.5 0.25
    3 16 16.5 -0.5

    4 11 16.35 -5.35 5.35 28.62

    5 17 14.75 2.25 2.25 5. 06

    6 14 15.43 -

    1.43 1.43 2.04

    TOTAL : 60.97

    b. 3mA Method Forecast Absolute Squared

    Month Value Forecast Error Error Error

    1 240 17988-52
    µgE =
    =
    1998.72
    2 350 9

    3 230

    4 260 273.33 -
    13.33 13.33 177.69

    5 280 280 O O O

    6 320 256.67 63.33 63.33 4010.69

    7 220 286.67 -66.67 66.67 4444.89

    8 310 273.33 36.67 36.67 1344.69

    9 240 283.33 -43.33 43.33 1877.49

    10 310 256.67 53.33 2844.09


    53.33

    11 240 286.67 -46.67 46.67 2178.09

    12 230 263.33 -
    33.33 33.33 1110.89

    260 TOTAL : 17988.52


    b. Exponential smoothing 0=0.2 Forecast Absolute Squared

    Month Value Forecast Error Error Error

    1 240

    240 110 110 12100


    2 zso 27797.19
    MGE = = 2527.02

    3 230 262 -32 32 1024 11

    4 260 255.6 4-4 4.4 19.36

    5 280
    256.48 23.52 23.52 533.19

    6 320 261.18 58.82 58.82 3459.79

    7 220 272.94 -52.94 52.94 2802.64

    8 310 262.35 47.65 47.65 2270.52

    9 271.88 31.88 31.88 1016.33


    240
    -

    10 310
    265.50 44.5 44.5 1980.25

    11 240
    274 -40 -34.4 34.4 1183.36

    12 230
    267.52 -37.52 37.52 1407.75

    13 260.02 TOTAL : 27797.19

    i. The 3 month moving average method is more accurate compared to

    the exponential smoothing method since it provided a lower MSE .

    moving averages has 2 problems:


    - increasing the number of periods averaged (size of n) does smooth out
    fluctuations better but it takes the method less sensitive to real changes
    - the moving averages cannot pick up trends very well
    note: since they are averages, they will always stay within past level and will
    not predict a change

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