Impacts of Climate Change

on Malaysia Coastline

National Water Research Institute of Malaysia / Institut Penyelidikan Air Kebangsaan Malaysia
 Sea Level Rise

National Water Research Institute of Malaysia / Institut Penyelidikan Air Kebangsaan Malaysia
 PROJECTED SEA LEVEL RISE FROM 2020 TO 2100

• Observed tide gauge

shown the trend of
rising sea

• The projections were

based on IPCC Fifth
Assessment Report
AR5 (Representative
Concentration Pathway-
RCP)

Source: NAHRIM 2017

Link:
http://www.nahrim.gov.my/images/pengu
muman/CSIRO_Malaysia_SeaLevelRise
Report_FinalReport_2017.pdf

National Water Research Institute of Malaysia / Institut Penyelidikan Air Kebangsaan Malaysia 4
PROJECTED SEA LEVEL RISE RCP 8.5 @ 2100 Vs
Land Elevation Less Than 1m

Contour elevation < 1 m

Source: NAHRIM 2017

National Water Research Institute of Malaysia / Institut Penyelidikan Air Kebangsaan Malaysia 5
COASTAL FLOODING DUE TO SEA LEVEL RISE SCENARIO RCP 8.5
Ban tanah kawasan Kuala Muda (Nov. 3,
2021, bhnews@bh.com.my)
Anggaran panjang pantai yang berisiko kesan kenaikan aras laut
• Semenanjung Malaysia : 1,015 km
• Sabah : 1,160 km Laluan di sekitar kawasan pekan Putatan dinaiki
air (www.borneotoday.net)

• Sarawak : 700 km
Jumlah keseluruhan panjang pantai berisiko: 2,875 km
Kawasan banjir pantai
kesan RCP 8.5 @ tahun 2100
Cadangan kawasan ban
pantai (aras lindung selamat)
Lokasi gambar kawasan terjejas Long Lama, Marudi di Sarawak (Malaysianow.com,
Bernama May 22, 2021)

Pekan Sibu dinaiki air limpahan Sg. Rajang

(Okt. 2021, suaras arawak.my)

Foto udara Jetty Minyak Beku

(NAHRIM, 2021) Tebingan Kuching ditenggelami air Sg.
Sarawak

Jan. 2021 (www.astroawani.com)

 Storm Surge

National Water Research Institute of Malaysia / Institut Penyelidikan Air Kebangsaan Malaysia
OFFSHORE WAVE AT STRAIT OF MALACCA WAVE ANALYSIS

Annual Northeast Monsoon Southwest Monsoon

Item
Northeast
Seasonal Southwest
Unit Monsoon
Wave Height Monsoon (SW)
(NE)

Wave height m 0.8 1.1

Wave Period s 4.5 5.2

Analysis on extreme value over 10 years data
Wave
Inter Monsoon °N 80 °N 270 °N
Direction

Significant Angle

Return 60 DEG 90 DEG 210 DEG 240 DEG 270 DEG 300 DEG
Period
[years]
Hs (m) Tp (s) Hs (m) Tp (s) Hs (m) Tp (s) Hs (m) Tp (s) Hs (m) Tp (s) Hs (m) Tp (s)
Annually %
2 2.06 4.96 2.26 5.26 2.48 6.28 2.16 5.93 2.97 5.80 1.83 5.36
ARI increase
5 2.29 5.08 2.51 5.41 3.04 6.44 2.48 6.09 3.28 5.88 2.10 5.52 1-5 year 3.48
5-10 year 1.22
10 2.44 5.16 2.67 5.51 3.48 6.55 2.70 6.18 3.48 5.93 2.29 5.63
10 - 30 year 0.43
30 2.66 5.27 2.92 5.64 4.26 6.71 3.03 6.31 3.78 6.00 2.64 5.80 30 - 50 year 0.17
5.31 5.70 6.79 6.37 6.03 5.89 50 - 100 years 0.09
50 2.76 3.033 4.67 3.19 3.91 2.81
100 2.90 5.37 3.19 5.78 5.27 6.89 3.38 6.44 4.08 6.07 3.07 6.00
 OFFSHORE WAVE AT SOUTH CHINA SEA

Northeast Southwest
Item Unit Monsoon Monsoon
(NE) (SW)
Wave
m 1.3 0.7
height
Wave
Wave s 4.8 4.1
Period
Wave
°N 65 °N 165°N
Direction
Analysis on extreme value over 10 years data
Significant Angle

31-60 DEG 61-90 DEG 151-180 DEG 181-210 DEG

Return Period [years]
Hs (m) Tp (s) Hs (m) Tp (s) Hs (m) Tp (s) Hs (m) Tp (s)
2 3.776 5.96 3.952 6.14 1.821 4.61 1.477 4.53 Annually %
ARI increase
5 4.168 6.11 4.455 6.28 2.198 4.72 1.726 4.64 1-5 year 4.24
10 4.414 6.21 4.786 6.37 2.488 4.79 1.913 4.72 5-10 year 1.49
30 4.772 6.33 5.284 6.49 2.998 4.89 2.235 4.84 10 - 30 year 0.52
50 4.93 6.38 5.511 6.54 3.263 4.94 2.399 4.90 30 - 50 year 0.21
 Penang ARI 270deg
2 2.97 A Annually Return Period 61-90 DEG
5 3.28 10.43771 3.479237 [years]
Hs (m) A Annually
10 3.48 6.097561 1.219512
30 3.78 8.62069 0.431034 2 3.952
50 3.91 3.439153 0.171958 5 4.455 12.72773 4.242578
100 4.08 4.347826 0.086957 10 4.786 7.429854 1.485971
30 5.284 10.40535 0.520267
50 5.511 4.295988 0.214799

Dominated Hs for Kedah and Penang

Dominated Hs for Kelantan and Terengganu
• Hs at ARI 2yr= 2.97 m
• Hs at ARI 10yr= 4.786m
• Hs at ARI 5yr= 3.28m
• Hs at ARI 30yr= 5.284m
• To get the % increase from ARI 2yrto ARI 5yr is
• To get the % increase from ARI 10yrto ARI 30yr is
ARI 5yr = [Existing + increase %] * ARI 2yr
existing
ARI 30yr = [existing + increase %] * ARI 10yr
3.28m = [(100+A)/100] * 2.97 m existing
A increase in (5 -2 yr)=3 years 5.284m = [(100+A)/100] * 4.786 m
3.28m = [(100+A)/100] * 2.97 m
A increase in (30-10 yr)=20 years
A = [3.28/2.97]m*100- 100
A = [5.284/4.786]m*100- 100
A= 10.43% for 3 years; thus 1 year =3.48%
A= 10.41% for 20 years; thus 1 year =0.52%
Note: referred to
COMPARISON SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT (M)

Water depth at 10 m ACD

Annually well calibrated SW model
Coastal Structural Crest
Height Calculation
 INITIAL COASTAL PROTECTION CREST LEVEL
No ARI MHWS SLR Hs @ ARI (Wave and wind set up) General Crest level @LSD % increase
Kedah
2020 1.38 0.07 1.61 3.06
2030 1.38 0.11 1.77 3.26 1%
1
2050 1.38 0.22 1.95 3.55 0.50%
2100 1.38 0.68 2.14 4.20 0.20%
Terengganu
2020 1.02 0.07 3.60 4.69
2030 1.02 0.11 3.96 5.09 1%
2
2050 1.02 0.23 4.36 5.61 0.50%
2100 1.02 0.7 4.79 6.51 0.20%
Kota Kinabalu
2020 0.83 0.07 2.33 3.23
2030 0.83 0.12 2.56 3.51 1%
3
2050 0.83 0.25 2.82 3.90 0.50%
2100 0.83 0.73 3.10 4.66 0.20%

• Crest level = MHWS + Sea level rise + Wind set up + Wave Setup
Using the Hs at 10 m water depth (further research is on going MHWS~ 1.02m
between DID and NAHRIM)
 Hs @ ARI (Wave and wind General Crest level
No
ARI MHWS SLR set up) @LSD % increase
Terengganu
2020 1.02 0.07 3.60 4.69
2030 1.02 0.11 3.96 5.09 1%
2
2050 1.02 0.23 4.36 5.61 0.50%
2100 1.02 0.7 4.79 6.51 0.20% MHWS~ 1.02m

• Crest height = MHWS + SLR +Wave setup + Wind setup

• Spectral wave (SW) using wind velocity components, with the coverage from the pacific ocean to
Andaman sea in the grid series data
• MHWS= 1.02m
• SLR referred to NAHRIM 2017
• HS at 10 m ACD~ 3 m (20% is added because the HS was based on 2002 to
2006 simulated result.
• Wave calibration used the time series continued wave measurement data at
Cherating in 2005 & 2006 by NAHRIM. percentage
• Therefore Hs for year 2020= 3 m*120/100=3.6m
• Hsfor 2030 : assumed to increase 1% annually = [(existing+ (increase in number
of year )/100]*Hs for 2020
• Hsfor 2030 = [(100+ ((year 2030-2020) * 1)/100]*3.6m = 3.96 m
• Hsfor 2050 = [(100+ ((year 2050-2030) * 0.5)/100]*3.96m = 4.36 m
• Hsfor 2100 = [(100+ ((year 2100-2050) * 0.2)/100]*4.36m = 4.79m

• Crest level for 2050= 1.02m (MHWS) + 0.23m (SLR) + 4.36 m (Hs)= 5.61 m from the mean sea level
LAYOUT OF ROCK REVETMENT
LAYOUT OF ROCK REVETMENT
Results & Discussion Adopted Design Approach
Table 3: Changes to Design Parameters and Design Output at
Terengganu Coast
• The differences in the design of No. Description Current Year 2100 Difference
coastal rock revetment works are Condition (m) (m)
1 MSL (mCD*) 1.45 1.75 0.30
compared to obtain the optimum
2 MHHW /MHWS 2..67 2.97 0.30
design parameters for Kuala (mCD*)
Terengganu. 3 Design Water Level 3.49 3.79 0.30
(mCD*)
4 Design Wave Height 4.77 4.79 0.02
• The main design parameters and
(m)
design output that will be the main 5 Crest Level (mCD*) 7.89 8.20 0.31
focus of the comparison are the 6 Crest Width (m) 5.00 5.05 0.05
Design Water Level, Design Wave 7 Armour Size (tons) 12.10 12.40 0.30

Height, Crest Level and Armour

Stone Size.

• A sketch of the coastal revetment

design for the current condition and
the year 2100 condition is shown in
Figure 10.
Thanks