Covid 19 A Nightmare of Indain Economy - CA - Kamakshi Mehta

Purakala ISSN: 0971-2143
Vol-31-Issue-20-April-2020
(UGC Care Journal)
COVID-19 : A nightmare for the Indian Economy
1. CA .Kamakshi Mehta is an Assistant Professor at Amity University ,

Haryana, India
2. Mr Shiv Swaroop Jha is an Assistant Professor at Amity University, Haryana
, India
Abstract
The objective of our study is to conduct and accomplish a retrospective analysis of the
macro-economic repercussions of the various Pandemics which have emerged till date
and also to forecast the impact of Covid -19 on the Indian Economy. Covid -19 is a
contagious disease belonging to the SARS COV-2 family . The best method
recommended to restrain the virus is by social distancing and self-isolation . The
major method being used by infected countries is complete lock down . This method
may help in containing the virus spread but it is paving the way to the Global
recession which will have a severe consequence on all sectors of the economy and all
the countries-be it developed or developing . We also suggest that additional work is
necessary to develop a more comprehensive macro-economic model in order to
accurately estimate the relative cost and effects of a global response to the outbreaks
of international concern in a better manner.
Key words : COVID-19 , Global Recession , Indian Economy , Influenza , NPA .
Introduction :
Corona virus known as COVID – 19 is an highly infectious disease which belongs to

the SARS COV - 2 virus family .Scientists and Doctors have found this virus highly
communicable in nature and has subsequently usurped in spreading its wings all over
the globe in a matter of few days . The virus spreads predominantly from direct
contact with an infected person’s saliva droplets when he coughs or through discharge
from nose when sneezes . Furthermore, the doctors have detected that the virus can
also travel via articles as it has a life ranging from 3 hrs to 48 hrs on various articles.
There is no confirmatory study as to whether the virus is airborne or not .
P a g e | 333 Copyright ⓒ 2020 Authors
Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3612676

(UGC Care Journal)
The best way recommended to prevent and break the corona virus chain is to be well
informed about COVID-19 virus and the various ways of its spread. The studies so far
mention that people should practise basic respiratory etiquettes like while coughing
mouth should be covered by the elbow. It is also recommended by the medical
fraternity to protect ourselves and others by washing our hands , not touching our
faces and to sanitize our hands with an alcohol based sanitizer .
The COVID-19 virus is connected with the immunity quotient of the human body .
Studies till now have confirmed that people with weak immunity fall easy prey to
the virus . People with weak immunity include old people or people with pre existing
diseases like heart ailment , cancer , diabetes , asthmatic or other respiratory issues .
Cases show that people with strong immunity have experienced mild respiratory
illness and have recovered from the monstrous disease .
Currently there is no vaccination or treatment for COVID-19 inspite of the world’s

best scientists from US , China , Cuba , India etc working on it . The only treatment
available and suggested is isolation , practising respiratory etiquettes and maintaining
hygiene .With the lap of the 21st Century, the world economy has witnessed a
tremendous growth in the cross-border trade and tourism over the past two decades .
This noticeable alteration has been the result of the opening of International borders
by countries to increase exports , invite imports and global investment from different
parts of the world. The opening of international borders has not only increased the
revenue generated by manifolds through the business of import and export but also
the tourism industry has grown by leaps and bounds . Ironically, this coin has a bad
side to it . Any negative economic impact in any country spreads it shock waves
through the international borders to other countries also . The COVID -19 economic
shock triggered in China as an epic centre has spread its tremors across the globe and
thus setting in the fear of global recession .
Objectives :
1.The objective of the study is to perform a retrospective analysis of the macro-
economic impact of the various epidemics and pandemic which have occurred all
over the world since 1918 .

(UGC Care Journal)
2.The study also intends to forecast the impact of Covid 19 on the Indian economy
based on various articles published by eminent economists .
Research Methodology :
The research is based on secondary data which is collected from published sources
such as research papers , articles in esteemed daily newspapers , business magazines ,
reports of leading constancy firms , government official websites . This article will
examine the literature for the concept and history of pandemics, providing an
adequate summary of key attributes with further discussion on the obstructive
consequences on health, economy, social and global security yielded by pandemics
and disease upsurges.
Literature review :
Martin et al , 1999 . The researchers in their study have examined the foreseeable
economic aftermath of next pandemic in the US . They also chalked down the benefits
of any intervention designed to reduce the impact and also recommended the
development of national and state level plans to respond to any future influenza
pandemic .
Jong-Wha Lee and Warwick J ,2003 The author has laid emphasis on the fact that
SARS-a virus having acute respiratory syndrome-has had a significant impact on the
political and economic reforms in China . It also highlights the short falls in the health
services of China .
Ilan and Sharlan ,2003 The study states that the SARS epidemic of 2003 resulted in
dramatic reduction in air travel and tourism and hospitality industry . The researcher
has critically analysed that the government’s intervention mechanisms are cost-
effective and their intervention might alter the behavioral responses to lead to more
positive outcomes.
Richard ,2004 This paper studies the effects of SARS epidemic on the economy of
Hong kong .The most significant impact was noticed on the lower demand of the
products and services due to the low consumption levels . There was noticed a drastic
reduction in the service industry related to tourism and air travel in the short run .
Jong-Wha Warwick,2004 The focus of this paper is to make a global assessment of
economic costs of the epidemic SARS . Their assessment is based on the G-cubed

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model . The researcher shares an opinion that the economic costs from an epidemic
disease such as SARS are global in nature not only because of the decrease in tourism
but also because an economic shock travels fast over borders due to the extensive
linkages of trade and financial linkages across international borders .
Hans ,2006. The researcher is of the opinion that if the population has limited
immunity levels then the impact even of a flu with very normal characteristics in
terms of the virus being contagious can leave the mankind devasted with high number
of casualties .
Thomas , 2007 . The report provides a background of the Spanish Flu of 1918 which
claimed 50 million
lives . The data analyses the mortality rates depending on the difference of race ,
income or place of
residence . The sources of data is evidence on the economic effects which were
reported in leading
newspaper articles during the pandemic .
Marcus et al. , 2008 . The researcher in his paper attempts at estimating the potential
cost to the global economy by uniting the disease parameters and planning policies of
the govt . The policies modelled include reduced labour supply due to morbidity,
mortality and school closure .
George et.al ,2011.The researchers indicate that the impact of a pandemic with high
infection rate rather then high virulence rates will be more devastating . They also
concluded that countries with higher economic integration globally shall be more
strongly affected as compared to their counterparts
W.Qiu et al , 2016 . This study explores and examines the previous literature for
studying the concepts of previous pandemics providing a summary of the negative
consequences on the global economy , security , health and social security resulting
from these outbreaks .
Heesoo et.al , 2019 The study was conducted to estimate the impact of the MERS
epidemic on the tourism and hospitality industry . The researcher has used seasonal
autoregressive integrated moving average models on the data of non citizens arrival
and other services used during the period of outbreak from June2015 to June 2016 .

(UGC Care Journal)
The Hindu Business Line,2020 The esteemed daily paper has highlighted that the
UN report has estimated an of $348 million on the Indian economy . Further the
report indicates that India is among the 15 economies which have been most
affected due to the corona virus pandemic .
Karen and Preston ,2020 .The researcher in his article has laid emphasis on the fact
that the economic impact of this quick world wide spread of the COVID 19 will lead
to stock market casualties and also may trigger a global recession .
Past Epidemics and Pandemics :
1918 witnessed the World War I end with the spread of Spanish Flu , the deadliest flu
with highest death casualties which amounted to 50 million . The epic centre of the
flu is not confirmed but it is believed that it originated in US and costed the world
economy a loss of $3 trillion .
1957 was plagued by Asian flu which originated in China resulted in approximately
70000 deaths and a loss of 2% to the world GDP .
1968 red carpeted the deadly Hongkong flu which originated from Hongkong
consuming approx. 1 million human lives and costing the global GDP a loss of $14.8
billion .
2003 saw the deadly wave of SARS which again originated from China with only 916
deaths but a massive cost to the GDP with a loss of $33 billion .
2009 had H1N1 orginating from Mexico commonly known as Swine Flu which led to
a 1.5% loss to the global economy with a loss of 2,84,00 human lives .
2014 -15 had Ebola which originated from Guinea saw a loss of $2.2 billion and
11,325 deaths .
2020 has been swept over by Corona virus ( Covid-19 )
COVID-19 Pandemic ? Result of our EGO .
Ironically, the governments of various countries have ignored the advices of their
health departments , their scientists , their researchers and are now paying the price of
their ego through their falling economy . Developed countries like United Kingdom ,
United States of America , Italy the whole of Europe have lost their people and their
economy to the COVID-19 pandemic only because of the resumptuous attitudes on
their medical strength . But in the process they have played suicidal by ignoring the

(UGC Care Journal)
UK Health Departments’ report published on 01 Mar 2005 on Inffluenza pandemic

contingency plan .
Highlights of the report :

 Study of previous epidemics and pandemics highlight that the chances of the
new pandemic originating from China and Hongkong is very high .
 The researchers have clearly pointed out that UK may be able to delay the
penetration of the virus in the countries boundaries by sealing the borders but
will not be able to contain it .
 The spread of the virus will be rapid to the countries having trade routes from
the originating country . Modern travel may result in wide international spread
even more rapidly .
 The report has also suggested that the Influenza impact shall last for 3-5
months and there also may be subsequent waves which may be at weekly or
monthly intervals .
Global Economy :
Apart from the tragic consequences of COVID-19 on the human life , the impact on
the Global economy is going to be massive and the cost according to a report of the
UN’s trade and development agency UNCTAD , may go up to $1trillion in 2020 . The
slow down predicted in the global economy is forecasted to be under 2% by the
agency .
Chinese Economy :
China the epic-centre of many influenza virus is now the epic-centre of COVID-19
pandemic with it’s first case
detected in the month of December 2019 infecting a total of 81,620 people with a
death toll of 3,322.
According to Fareed Zakaria , leading US foreign affairs expert , China has handled
the COVID-19 pandemic in the best way possible by locking down , sealing and
extensive sanitization of the affected areas . Inspite of the global praise of the
containment efforts of the Chinese government and the lockdown process being eased
with life trying to normalize after the lockdown of 3 months , the strain on the

(UGC Care Journal)
economy were clearly visible. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Sector % Change in Jan -Feb 2020
Investment in Fixed Assets -24.5
Retail Sales -20.5

Industrial Production -13.5
Exports -15.9
Services -13
According to the surveys conducted in China by Beijing Financial firm, the economy
is in for a double headed shock :
1. Domestic Demand : Analysis of the data collected by the survey showed
that the people due to psychological fear , bankruptcies and job losses will
cut down on their spending habits .
2. Overseas Demand : Since China’s major revenue is from exporting goods
manufactured in it’s industries shall face a major loss in the volume of
exports as the countries all over the globe are facing the crisis of this
outbreak and are in lock down state .
Danger on the Global Horizon :
The burning question which arises is “ Whether all other affected countries will
follow the same path of falling economy ?Will the Global recession set in ?” Other
countries are now feeling the blow of the virus for example Canada has already
recorded one million people applying for unemployment benefits .
Virus hit countries like Italy and Spain who have already recorded high
unemployment over the past years are expecting to reach the super low GDP levels .
In-spite that it is very early to measure and gauge the extent and severity of the
economic damage to the world economy the IMF has forecasted a global recession in
2020 . The UN has estimated that COVID-19 shall cause a $2 trillion hole in the
global revenue .

(UGC Care Journal)
Impact on Indian Economy :

With the steep increase in the number of cases of Covid effected people , nearly 162
countries have gone into shut down . Businesses across the world are working under a
terrifying fear of the collapse of the world economy . Irrespective of the fact whether
the country was in the category of developed or developing the economic situation
prior to the spread of Covid 19 was grim and now it has moved towards a terrifying
scenario of an extremely volatile market . The major sources of trade of a country are
its imports and exports . China is the 3rd largest partner contributing in the export and
import trade of India . Any unfavorable influence on the Chinese industry will have
rippling effects on the Indian economy .
China’s Share in India’s Imports

The dependence of India on China for importing products is extensive in comparison
to imports from rest of the world . Imports recorded from China in the month of Jan
2020 have been a massive figure of $70 billion followed by US .The economists and
trade analysts believe that a noticeable fall of 13.7% may be seen in the import figures
.
In the context of exports, China accounts for a 5% share of Indian exports in the
following sectors namely plastics , cotton , ores , chemicals etc . China has held a
major share accounting to 10.3% of the exports from India in terms of raw material .

(UGC Care Journal)
India’s economy is already being burdened by the past slow down . Due to the risks of
COVID-19 , Moody’s has predicted a major downfall in India’s growth rate 2020
which may be the slowest growth witnessed in the past decade . The highest
impacted sectors will be tourism , aviation , hospitality and trade . Other sectors will
also be feeling the rippled impacts .
Impact on Oil and fuel industry :

Analysts at Rystad Energy have suggested offshore workforce in US could witness a
jobs cut upto 20% . The UNCTAD have suggested that the fall in the oil prices is a
result of the Covid virus scare and also the price war between the countries . The
rapid increase in the virus cases globally along with the lockdown of international
borders and further shut down of all modes of travel have resulted in the massive fall
in the demand for oil and fuel . However , this price fall in the crude oil may result as
a blessing in disguise for economies like India who are engaged in importing crude oil
.
Impact on Tourism Industry
The Indian tourism industry has seen whopping growth over the past decade and has
been recorded as 9.2% of the total GDP of India in 2018 ie $240 billion . This
industry has also been a major contributor in the employment statistics by
contributing to 8.1% jobs in India . The sector was predicted a growth of 6.8%
annually prior to the virus impact . The Indian medical tourism sector was also
estimated to be worth $8 billion by 2020. All these estimates have been disrupted by
the severe effects of the Covid lockdowns all over the globe in approximately 162
countries. An article in Financial Express India has estimates the tourism industry
would be at loss of at least $28 billion . A potential job loss of approx. 70% engaged
in this sector is being predicted . The Federation of Associations in Indian Tourism &
Hospitality (FAITH), the umbrella body of the industry, has predicted bankruptcies ,
closure of business and mass unemployment .
Impact on Automobile Industry :
The Indian automotive industry is expecting major losses due to lock down and
shutdown of production of the industries . Many automobile parts were being

(UGC Care Journal)
imported into India from China which have been severely impacted due to the
temporary shut down of the industries in China earlier and then the travel lockdown in
India . The industry is expecting a loss of $2 billion in revenue in the month of March
alone . This may result in the cut down in jobs and salaries also to a great extent . The
initial estimates are very scary but if the government intervenes timely and supports
the industry with reforms then they might be able to contain the downfall .
Impact on Financial Markets
The G7 nations met in March 2020 and discussed the sensitivity of stock markets to
the economical impact of Covid-19. The investors hopes of an announcement of
policies for containing the negative impact were thrashed to the core with no policy
being announced . The stocks responded immediately by falling steadily and eroding
away major wealth of the investors . The US market in mid march noted the worst
trading in the past 124 years . The Indian market also saw a 20% cut in benchmark
indices making the Indian equity market enter the territory of Bear market . BSE
Sensex witnessed a sharp fall in the stock market on March 23, 2020 due to the
Coronavirus fear across the global market. The Sensex had fallen 3500 points to
approx. 26, 000 .On the other hand, the NSE Nifty fell 11 percent. The Indian
market opened on a positive note with promising signals from the foreign markets
only to fall flat with the foreign investors continuously withdrawing money from the
Indian markets .
Impact on Banking Industry and NPA :


(UGC Care Journal)
The banking analyst , the RBI ,the Finance ministry all are stressed with the scare of
contracting the virus but more than that they are worried about the percentage
increase in the NPA’s due to the immense negative impact of Covid 19 on the
different sectors of industries . Various factors such as lock down , lower
consumption rate , higher casualties , higher job erosion higher expenses on health ,
reduction of imports and exports etc are undoubtedly going to lower the financial
health of the companies , firms and individuals . This will result in lower repaying
capacity of borrowers and further creating an long term impact on the level of NPA in
banks .
Human consequences :
Besides the financial figures the society suffers major consequences which include the
human costs of the pandemic including death of near and dear ones ,the mental
trauma and the physical pain of the infection . The impact of an uncertain future is
taking a toll on the patience level of the people , frustrating them to a level beyond
imagination . This frustration has resulted in increased family fights . This fear of
financial uncertainty , the feeling of being cut of from society , the feeling of panic ,
the fear of shortage of bare necessities has all led to psychological stress .
Findings :
According to Reuters if the world is hit with a pandemic of the size of Hongkong flu
the world GDP can be seen to fall by at least 0.7% . It is also noticed that the
developing countries will the hardest hit because of the higher population and higher
population density and high level of poverty . According to the World Banks reports
the major loss of the economy comes from the avoidance of the disease ie efforts of
trying to control it for eg Directives as lock down , reducing air travel , mass
transportation , tourism etc . The organisation for Economic Co-operation and
Development an entity with 36 member countries has estimated that the growth rate
may be cut to 1.5% in 2020 . A separate analysis by the consulting firm McKinsey &
company suggests that a lock down of 6 to 8 weeks could cut global GDP by 1% to
1.5% . The Chief U.S economists for Oxford Economics , Greg Daco in his

(UGC Care Journal)
interviews to New York times may sink by 12% in the second quarter . On the other
hand Goldman Sachs has predicted a second -quarter decline of 24% .
Recommendation:
Governments should take measures which are economic, fiscal and monetary that
involve motivating social spending by the public , lowering interest rates on loans ,
intervening in foreign exchange markets, lowering bank charges , providing short
term credit for companies , suspension of payment of electricity bills , water bills and
other govt charges , among others. Schemes of social protection should be initiated to
protect the most vulnerable groups from the crisis, particularly the elderly, lower
income sectors and the poor.
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Principal (Co-responding )Author :

CA .Kamakshi Mehta is an Assistant Professor at Amity University , Haryana, India
, with an experience of 23 years . She has completed her CA from ICAI in 1998 and
her Masters degree in commerce from Mahatma Gandhi University , Meghalaya . At
present she is pursuing her doctorate from JNU , Rajasthan .
Orcid ID : 0000-0002-3709-2338
E-Mail :- cakamakshi.research@gmail.com
Mobile no : 9610897735
Co-Author :
Mr Shiv Swaroop Jha is an Assistant Professor at Amity University, Haryana ,
India, with an experience of 13 years . He has completed his M. B. A(Finance) from
Mahamaya Technical University, NOIDA. At present he is pursuing his doctorate
from Bhim Rao Ambedkar Bihar University, Muzaffarpur, Bihar.
Orcid ID : 0000-0003-4256-7243
E-Mail :- mail2shivswaroop@gmail.com
Mobile no : 9818550018

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Purakala ISSN: 0971-2143

COVID-19 : A nightmare for the Indian Economy

1. CA .Kamakshi Mehta is an Assistant Professor at Amity University ,

Corona virus known as COVID – 19 is an highly infectious disease which belongs to

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3612676

Currently there is no vaccination or treatment for COVID-19 inspite of the world’s

P a g e | 334 Copyright ⓒ 2020 Authors

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3612676

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3612676

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3612676

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3612676

UK Health Departments’ report published on 01 Mar 2005 on Inffluenza pandemic

Highlights of the report :

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3612676

economy were clearly visible. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Sector % Change in Jan -Feb 2020

Investment in Fixed Assets -24.5

Retail Sales -20.5

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3612676

Impact on Indian Economy :

China’s Share in India’s Imports

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3612676

Impact on Oil and fuel industry :

P a g e | 341 Copyright ⓒ 2020 Authors

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3612676

Impact on Banking Industry and NPA :

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3612676

P a g e | 343 Copyright ⓒ 2020 Authors

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3612676

P a g e | 344 Copyright ⓒ 2020 Authors

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3612676

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3612676

P a g e | 346 Copyright ⓒ 2020 Authors

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3612676

Principal (Co-responding )Author :

P a g e | 347 Copyright ⓒ 2020 Authors

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3612676

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