Rogelio Tovar Medel – A01701398

Carlos Iván García Obregón – A01702232

Héctor Miguel Flores Medina – A01207478
Campus Querétaro

HYDROLOGY

ASSIGNMENT #1
DUE DATE: TUESDAY MARCH 10

1. Look for the following information on the Basin of Queretaro (10 points):
According to the National Statistics and Geography Institute in Mexico (INEGI), Queretaro is
located inside 4 different basins: R. Laja, R. Moctezuma, R. Tamún and R. Lerma Toluca. Most of
the state’s total area is located within the Moctezuma basin (55.56%), although it is important to
mention that the main urban zone (Santiago de Querétaro) is inside the Laja Basin (19.42% of the
total surface area). Therefore, the following basin parameters and characteristics displayed belong
to this particular basin:
a. Average temperature
The average temperature is approximately 23°C.
b. Average precipitation
The average precipitation is around 555.1 mm/year.
c. Predominant type of soil
Most of the soil located at Queretaro is Vertisol.
d. Predominant type of vegetation
Mostly scrubland and jungle.
e. Type of weather
Between a semi dry-semi warm and dry – semi warm climate.

2. A water-resource system is designed for a hydrologic event with a 25-year return period.
Assuming that the hydrologic events can be taken as a Bernoulli process: a) What is the
probability that the design event will be exceeded once in the first 5 years of the system
operation? b) More than once in 5 years? (10 points)

a) T = 25
1
Pe = = 0.04
25
5
𝑓(𝑛) = ( ) (0.04)1 (1 − 0.04)(5−1) = 0.1698 = 𝟏𝟔. 𝟗𝟖%
1

b) 1 – P(0) – P(1)
5
𝑃(0) = ( ) (0.04)0 (1 − 0.04)(5−0) = 0.8153 = 81.53%
0
𝑃(1) = 16.98%
1 – (0.8153)-0.1698 = 0.0147 = 1.47%

1
 Rogelio Tovar Medel – A01701398
Carlos Iván García Obregón – A01702232
Héctor Miguel Flores Medina – A01207478
Campus Querétaro

3. A water-resource system is designed for a 50-year storm. Assuming that the occurrence of the
50-year storm is a Bernoulli process: a) What is the probability that the 50-year storm will be
equaled or exceeded once in the first 50 years or operation? b) What is the probability that it will
be equaled or exceeded once within the first 6 years? (10 points)

a) T = 50
1
Pe = = 0.02
50
1 – P(0)
50
𝑃(0) = ( ) (0.02)0 (1 − 0.02)(50−0) = 0.36417 = 36.417%
0
1 – 0.36417 = 0.6358 = 63.58%
b) 1 – P(0)
6
𝑃(0) = ( ) (0.02)0 (1 − 0.02)(6−0) = 0.8858 = 88.58%
0
1 – (0.8858) = 0.1142 = 11.42%

4. If Rio Querétaro is designed for a runoff event with a 100-year return period, and assuming that
it can be described as a Poisson process: a) What is the probability that Rio Querétaro will
overflow 2 times in the next 10 years? b) What is the probability that Rio Querétaro will overflow
more than twice in the next 10 years? (10 points)
a) T = 100
1
Pe = = 0.01
100
𝜆 = 𝑁 ∗ 𝑃 = 10 ∗ 0.01 = 0.1
𝜆𝑛𝑒 −𝜆 0.12 𝑒 −0.1
𝑓(𝑛) = = = 0.0045 = 𝟎. 𝟒𝟓%
𝑛! 2!

b) 1 – P(0) – P(1) – P(2)

𝜆𝑛𝑒 −𝜆 0.12 𝑒 −0.1
𝑓(2) = = = 0.0045 = 𝟎. 𝟒𝟓%
𝑛! 2!
𝜆𝑛 𝑒 −𝜆 0.11 𝑒 −0.1
𝑓(1) = = = 0.0905 = 𝟗. 𝟎𝟓%
𝑛! 1!
𝜆𝑛 𝑒 −𝜆 0.10 𝑒 −0.1
𝑓(0) = = = 0.9048 = 𝟗𝟎. 𝟒𝟖%
𝑛! 0!
1 – P(0) – P(1) – P(2) = 1 – 0.0045 - 0.0905 - 0.9048 = 0.000155 = 0.015%

5. The maximum capacity of Rio Querétaro is 900 m3/s. Every year, the maximum discharges to Rio
Querétaro have a mean of 801 m3/s and standard deviation of 851 m3/s. If the flow is assumed
to follow a normal distribution, what is the probability that the river overflows? (20 points)

𝜇𝑥 = 801 𝑚3 /𝑠
𝜎𝑥 = 851 𝑚3 /𝑠
P(X>900m3) = 1-F(Z)
𝑥−𝜇𝑥 900−801
𝑧= = = 0.116
𝜎𝑥 851
From Table C.1. :
F(Z) = 0.5478
P(X>900m3) = 1-F(Z) = 1-0.5478 = 0.4522 = 45.22%

2
 Rogelio Tovar Medel – A01701398
Carlos Iván García Obregón – A01702232
Héctor Miguel Flores Medina – A01207478
Campus Querétaro

6. The annual rainfall in a rural town is shown to be log-normally distributed with a mean of 114 cm
and a standard deviation of 22 cm. Estimate the rainfall having a return period of 100 years.

T = 100
1
Pe = 100 = 0.01
𝜇𝑥 = 114 𝑐𝑚
𝜎𝑥 = 22 𝑐𝑚
F(Z) = 1-0.01=0.99

From Table C.1:

Z = 2.33
2
222 = 1142 (𝑒 𝜎𝑦 − 1) Solve for 𝜎𝑦
𝜎𝑦 = 0.19122
0.19222
114 = exp (𝜇𝑦 + 2
) Solve for 𝜇𝑦
𝜇𝑦 = 4.72
𝑦−𝜇𝑦 𝑦−4.72
𝑧= 𝜎𝑦
2.33 = 0.19122 Solve for “y”…
𝑦 = 5.16
5.16 = Ln(x) Solve for x… x = 174 cm
7. The annual-minimum rainfall amounts have been tabulated for a region and show a mean of 710
mm and a standard deviation of 112 mm. Assuming that these minima are described by an
extreme-value Type I distribution, estimate: (20 points)
a. The probability that the minimum rainfall is less than 500 mm
𝜇𝑥 = 710 𝑚𝑚
𝜎𝑥 = 112 𝑚𝑚
P(x<500mm)
𝜎𝑥 2 = 1.645𝑎 Solve for “a”… 1122 = 1.645𝑎 𝑎 = 87.32
𝜇𝑥 = 𝑏 − 0.577𝑎 Solve for “b”… 710 = 𝑏 − 0.577(87.32) 𝑏 = 760.34
𝑥−𝑏 500−760.34
𝑦 = 𝑎 = 87.32 = −2.98
𝑓(𝑦) = 1 − exp(− exp(𝑦)) = 0.0495 = 4.95%

b. The probability that the minimum rainfall exceeds 500 mm

P(x>500mm) = 1 - f(y) = 1 – 0.0495 = 0.9505 = 95.05%

c. The return period when the minimum rainfall exceeds 500 mm

Pe = 0.9505
T = 1/Pe = 1/0.9505 = 1.05 years

References:

• Anuario Estadístico y Geográfico de Querétaro 2017. INEGI.

http://internet.contenidos.inegi.org.mx/contenidos/productos/prod_serv/contenidos/espanol/
bvinegi/productos/integracion/pais/anuario_multi/2013/qro/AEyGQRO13.pdf