时寒冰利益分析法

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······································································· 92
2008 11
2009 8
90
10
60%
1
2005 5 1000
2007
“ ”
“ ”
——
——
2007 9 2007-07-24
http://shihb.blog.sohu.com/56558673.html
2
2007 9
9 10 2007-09-19
http://shihb.blog.sohu.com/64522264.html 2007-09-26 6
http://shihb.blog.sohu.com/65168985.html 2007-09-30
4800 4800
5500
2008-02-20|
“……
”
“ ”
2008-02-26|
http://shihb.blog.sohu.com/80140747.html “
” 2008-03-05 http://shihb.blog.sohu.com/80879067.html
“……
A
‘ ’
3
……”
2008-04-25
2008-05-08|
2008-03-25
……
……
”
2008-04-08|
9 10
9 10
A
……”
2008-04-17 http://shihb.blog.sohu.com/84871017.html
4
“
”
2008-05-27| 6 http://shihb.blog.sohu.com
/88514963.html “6
6 3000
”
2008-07-04| “ ”
OK ”
1600 2008 11 9
2008-11-10| http://shihb.blog.sohu.com
/104025351.html 10 ‘
’
……
5
2009-01-17| http://shihb.blog.sohu.com/108727956.html
1 15
2008
6 —— 2009
2009
2009
2009 8 2009-08-31|
2009-09-08|
http://shihb.blog.sohu.com/131404911.html “ 2009 8
——
”
8
3478
3500
8 9
6
……
1
13 20 20
——
7
“ ”
——
2009 6 29 7 10
8
2900 7·29
3470 7·29
——
7·29 “
——
2009 10
“7 29 ” “
” ……
3500
20 ——
3500 2009 7 5
“80 ” IPO
“ ”
3500
“ ”
“ 3500 ”
2009 7 2009 6 1.53
7 3559
9
3600
100 3500
22
3500 3500
3500
3500
3478
10
——
——
——ZF …… 2010
1 24
2009 6
2 2 163 90
1993 1994 1996 1997 1998 2000 2007 2009 A
IPO 100 2009
111 2008
800 100 8 800
33 24 ……
2010 2 4
11
——
2009
12
——
2008
“ ”
2008
2010 5 5
“
CDS
——
”
20 5 6 2010
13
85.26 1211.9
2010 5 14 86.29
06 1249.7
“ ”
1.
2.
—— ——
“ ” “
”
3 “ ” “
2010 5 ”
5
5
5 5 10 7500
14
5
“ ”
“ ”
“ ”
——
——
2009 20%
“ ” ——
——
15
——
——
2009 8
8
8
16
——
“ ”
2012
2010 5 15
17
——
——
——
2009 8
1998
( 23 ) “
18
” 23 80%
10%
2003 8 12
( 18 ) “ ” “
” “
” “ ” 18
18
23
10% 18 90%
2003 8 18
2003 7 M2 20.62 2005 3 26

“ ” 2005 3
M2 26.5
2007 12 M2 40.34
2007 2003 M2
2007 12 M2 40.34
2009 12 M2 60.6 27.7%
M2 20 2007
2009 M2 1949 2003 54
2007 2003 4 M2
20 1949 2003 54 2003
19
2009 M2 1949 2003 54
——
——
——
2010 6 M2 67.39 9.9
2010 6 M2 8.6
M2 1.3
M2
——
GDP 3 GDP 14
1990 M2 1.53 2010 6

M2 67.39 20 M2 44
1990 M2 3.28 2010 6
M2 8.6 20 M2
2.6
1998 1998 M2 10.45

1990 M2 1.53 2007 40.3 2009
60.6 2010 6 67.39
2010 6 1998 M2 6.5
“ ”
20
2010 8 18
21
——
“ ”
“ ”
“
”
—— 2008
—— 2010 3 “
——5 —— ——
” 2008
2010 5 16 ——
“
——
—— ”
60%
“
”
22
”
80
10
2008 10
2009 8
…… ——
2319
23
2010 6 8
“
5 ”
10%
50%
—— ——
——
1
2 3
2010 8 31
24
——
——
1951
1988
1989 12 29 39815
9200
“
” 2010 4 25
“ ”
“ ”
“T+0”
“T+1”
“ ”
“ ”
25
400
400
4 16 3399
3399X15%=509.85 20%
20% 3399X20%=679.8
300
IF1005 4 16 3450 5 21 2749.8

3450-2749.8=700.2
679.8
11
2009 2900—3400
2900-
2900X20% =2320 2319.74
26
15816459.73 86.42%
11831671.61 35.42%
11800617.40 35.33% 70.75%
11
CDS
3
——5
5
……
2010 9 7
27
28
——
“
”——
M2 1992 31.30% 1993 37.30%

1994 34.50% M2
……
1990 M2 1.53 2010

8 M2 68.75 43.9
20%
2003
29
2003 7 M2 20.62 2007 12
M2 40.34 2007 2003
M2 20
2007 12 M2 40.34 2009 12
M2 60.6 27.7%
M2 20
M2 ——
2010 8 M2 68.75 19.2%
7 17.6% 6 M2 18.5% 5
21.0% 4 21.48% 3 22.5% 2 25.52% 1 25.98%
2009 M2 17% 2009 M2

27.68%
2010 M2 17%
17%
—— N
30
1300 9 7
2010 3 17
——
—— —— —— ……
……
3
9 29
3
2008
31
20%
2010 9 29
20 AA
1.
32
2.
3. ……
33
4.
5.
34
“ ”
“ ”
35
1818 190
18
——
36
2006 4 13 10 31 2008 3
14 2008 9 2 2005 2 25 2011 5 11
23:21
“ ” K
“ ”
37
——
“ ”
——
2003 20
“ ”
2008 11 2001 7
2008 12 ——
38
“ ”
“ ”
“ ” 5.6
2008
11 12
50%
——
2005
400 2008
700 “ 1300
”
2009 1 16 “
1 15
……”
39
800
34 140
45 130 180
——
2008 11
2007 10 2008 11
600 800
1000 1200 1300 1400 1500……
“ ”
“ ”
40
4 28
——
2011 5 11
41
——
2010 2009 2008 2007 ……
——
——
42
……
2007 2008 2009

2006 2008 2010
2010 11
43
2011 5 25
44
“ ” “ ”
“ ”
“ ”
——
“ ”
45
——
“ ”
“ ”——
·
—— —— ·
“
……
”
46
“
——
——
—— ”
…… ——
“ ”
2011 3 2 80
“ ”
· 80
“
47
——
“ ”
“ ”
“ ”
48
2011 6 16
49
“
——
50
2010
—— —— ——
—— —— ——
—— —— ——
—— ——
“ ”
“ ” “ ”
—— —— ——
—— —— —— ——
—— —— ——
—— —— ——
“
” 2008
2011 6 17
51
7 6 2011 7 7
0.25
52
3.5
6.56
——
“
”
……
53
54
“ ”
“
55
(
)
——
2008 “
”——
351
8 4
56
( )
……
2008 9
1987
2010 GDP
……
9 EMBA
2011 8 5
57
“ ” “ ”
——
58
A.
B.
“
”
59
QE2.5
“ ”
QE2.5
QE3
“ ”
60
……
……
2011 8 7
61
16 “20 “4 ”
——
——
2008 11 5
10
2010 4
2013 2 —4
4.3 1.7 10
1.5 6694 7869 3770.55 ……
20
2008 4
“20 ” “4 ”
2008 11 2013 2
20
62
——
2008 12 24 2817.5 2011 2 15 10184

361%
4 2008 11 12
“ 2010 4 ”
2008 12 2010 12
A 2008 11 7 8.27 2009

8 3 51.08 2011 1 4 48.58
63
20
2013 4 17
“( )
”
2011 2010 10.7

15 —18
20
2013 4
M2 103.26 16.1%
4 M2 10.5256 Seasonallyadjusted
64
59%
——
20
2
——
5 13
——
65
——
2012 9
2012 9 27 3.6 2 4
4.53 2013 1
10 5
4 2230
1433
—— “
”
——
——
298—299
66
1
5 20
2000 3 10
5132.52 2002 10 10 1108.49
sohu
——
2009 2010
67
7
2013 5 25
68
70%
2008 4
——
——
”
http://shihb.blog.
69
sohu.com/260818780.html
“
1 2 3
”
Shibor
70
2
2 21 6 7 50%
70%
——
71
”
“20 ” “4 ”——
“
”
“ 5 20
”
——
5 28 9 54 “
1.23% 2.82% 4%
——
72
”
5 28 1.23% 3%
73
2013 6 11
74
——
[ 2002 2 —2011 2 ]
“ ” 2007
75
3 2007 9
5.38%
4.69%
2013 7 19 2013 7 20
0.7
ScottBesley EugeneF.Brigham
76
“ ”
1
——
[ 2013 7 18
http://bank.hexun.com/2013-07-18/156277793.html]
2
2004 10
2
2.3
“ ”
2013 7 21
77
——
AustralianBureauofStatistics
2013 5
78
MetalOreMining
30.59% CoalMining 14.54% PrimaryMetalandMetal
ProductManufacturing 12.93%
58.06%
1
2
3
“ ” k
79
2001 4 2003 2008
7
2008
2008 10 2008 11 4
2008 11
2013 2
80
——
10
81
2013 8 4
82
A
M2
LIBOR )
(BBA) LIBOR
800 LIBOR
Shibor 2007 1 4
Shibor
Shibor
Shibor Shibor
83
Shibor
Shibor
6 6 19 2150.82 6 20
24 6 25 1849.64 Shibor
Shibor 6 19 6 20
Shibor
Shibor
1 Shibor Shibor
2 Shibor
3 Shibor
4 Shibor
——
Shibor http://www.shibor.org/shibor/web/html/
Shibor 11:30
1 11:30
http://www.shibor.org/shibor/web/ShiborJPG.jsp Shibor
http://www.shibor.org/shibor/web/DataService.jsp
11:30 http://www.shibor.org/shibor/web/html/ Shibor

Shibor
84
2013 8 4
85
21
“Shibor
” Shibor7 14 2013
5 2 —8 9
7 shibor 6 27 7% 7
1 6% 7 2 5% 7 4 4% Shibor
4%
A
Shibor
2013 4 29 —8
9
86
6 25
1401 2013 1 23 8 9
1401
6 27 8 7 7 Shibor 4%
87
Shibor
Shibor
Shibor
6 “
” 6 “ ”
“ ” ——
5 668.62 4
88
2943.54 77%
6 19
FOMC
2012 8
298 299
“ ”
6
Shibor 7 22
2013 6 412.05 2012
11
……
“ ”
7% 7.5% 7.5%
6% 5%
7.5% 8.5% 9.5%……
7 30
“ ”
89
“ ”
—— —— ——
7 24 “
8 1 2
” 2 20%
4000
7.5%
Shibor
——
——
90
2013 8 11
91
5
2009 1
2008 2009 8
2009
——
92
2012
2010
6 8 ——
7 8 9
2010 6 24
2010 6 24
01 6 7 2010 6 8
……
……
93
02 6 7
94
03 6 8
04 6 8
05 5 21
5 22
01
95
06 6 8
96
07 6 8
08 5 25 +6 7
97
09 6 9
10 6 8
98
11 6 7
99

时寒冰利益分析法

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时寒冰利益分析法

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1 ································································· 1

2003 7 M2 20.62 2005 3 26

2010 6 M2 67.39 9.9

1990 M2 1.53 2010 6

1998 1998 M2 10.45

IF1005 4 16 3450 5 21 2749.8

M2 1992 31.30% 1993 37.30%

1990 M2 1.53 2010

2009 M2 17% 2009 M2

2010 2009 2008 2007 ……

2007 2008 2009

2008 12 24 2817.5 2011 2 15 10184

A 2008 11 7 8.27 2009

2011 2010 10.7

11:30 http://www.shibor.org/shibor/web/html/ Shibor

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