Confidence Intervals

Chapter 8 Section 1
• Confidence Interval –
– an interval obtained from sample data that tries to
estimate the true population parameter like µ or p
the population mean or population proportion.
(It’s a range of plausible values for the parameter)

– It gives the probability that the method used will

produce an interval that contains the true parameter
like µ or p.

– A statistic like , the sample mean, or p hat is at its

center and the level of confidence determines the
length of its extending ‘arms’ its margin of error

Note: remember any statistic can be substituted in where

is for corresponding parameter.

One-sample z Interval for Proportions

Estimator ± (critical value)*(standard dev. of statistic)

Estimate ± Margin of Error
 One-sample t Interval for Means
± t*(sx/√n)
Estimator ± (critical value)*(standard dev of statistic)
Estimator ± Margin of Error
= sample mean
sx = standard deviation of the sample called the standard error
t* = confidence level, called the upper critical value – tells us how
many st. dev. away from the estimate we should go to get our
desired level of confidence using the t distribution
n = sample size
Assumptions/Conditions:
SRS
Sample comes from a normally distributed population or n ≥ 30
because then we know sample comes from an approximately normal
sampling distribution. If n < 30, use shape of the distribution of the
sample to assess normality of population
N > 10n or n < 0.10N (tells you that your equation for S.D. is okay to
use)
The degrees of
z-distribution
freedom for
the t-distribution
is df = n - 1.
t-distribution
 Interpreting Confidence Level

Once a particular
confidence interval is
calculated, it either
includes the parameter
(probability = 1) or
doesn’t include the
parameter (probability
= 0).
Go to Fathom Activity
 Properties of Confidence Intervals

• As confidence goes up margin of error goes up

and vice versa as confidence margin of error

• If there is a lot of variability in the population, large

standard deviation, margin of error is large

• As sample size, n, the margin of error ,m,

Interpreting Confidence Level and Interval
AP® Exam
Tip

On a given problem, you may be asked to interpret the

confidence interval, the confidence level, or both. Be
sure you understand the difference:
•the confidence interval gives a set of plausible values
for the parameter
•the confidence level describes the overall capture rate
of the method.
 Stating your results:
• Interpreting Confidence Level. C% of all
possible samples of the same size from the same
population give an interval that will capture the
true population parameter (mean or proportion).

• Interpreting Confidence Interval: We are C%

confident that the interval from _____ to _____
captures the [parameter in context].”
When interpreting a confidence interval, make sure that you are
describing the parameter and not the statistic.

• CANNOT SAY: the population mean, µ, will fall

in this interval (90%) of the time
Assignment:

Pages: 506-509
Problems: 1-9 odd
15,17,19, 21, 23-26