EBOOK

Wi-Fi in the
Post-COVID19 Era
This eBook explores both short- and long-term developments
for Wi-Fi, with a focus on “what’s changed?” rather than
exploring the previous baseline trends.
What’s inside.

Introduction  3

Immediate responses around Wi-Fi  6

What will happen to Wi-Fi over the next year?  8

Vision for Wi-Fi over the next 3 years  12

Implications for Wi-Fi testing  16

Conclusions and recommendations  18

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Introduction
At the start of 2020, Wi-Fi was already evolving rapidly.
Wi-Fi 6 adoption was just starting to be pursued in
earnest, while mesh Wi-Fi was steadily growing in
importance for whole-home coverage. But the arrival
of the pandemic, from February/March 2020 onwards,
has accelerated some trends, slowed others, and set the
scene for revised future use-cases, market forecasts, and
product development and testing requirements.

This eBook explores both short- and long-term

developments for Wi-Fi, with a focus on “what’s
changed?” rather than exploring the previous baseline
trends.

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Wi-Fi does not exist in a bubble, technologically or commercially. It is
driven to a large degree by changes in economy, business, government
and behavior – as well as adjacent technology issues and adoption.
COVID-19 has altered many of those underlying factors, and they will
have significant pull-through effects on the Wi-Fi market, its suppliers,
and its service provider (SP) and enterprise customers. Some of the most
important shifts include:

• The changing demand for residential broadband, with the shift of

traffic from urban 4G/5G and smartphones, to fixed connections
and then Wi-Fi inside the home. ISPs’ networks have held up well, as
lockdowns have (mostly) just smoothed out evening streaming peaks
across the whole day.

• Mobile usage has been relatively flat. Lower out-of-home usage in

urban cores and along roads has been offset by higher suburban
traffic, with non-Wi-Fi users consuming more data, plus FWA (fixed
wireless access) connections mirroring fibre / cable usage growth –
and primarily connecting to Wi-Fi indoors.

• Shifts in application and device usage on Wi-Fi, such as a

renaissance of PCs and laptops, continued growth in video
streaming services, more remote education apps, greater upstream
requirements from conferencing and cloud services – and, in the
longer term, more AR/VR and telemedicine, among other shifts. The
vast bulk of application data transits Wi-Fi for people quarantined
at home.

• School lockdowns, WFH (work from home), and shelter-in-place

orders have meant more concurrent users in each home, bringing
extra challenges for both Wi-Fi and broadband. More rooms in the
house have become de-facto offices, and thus “mission critical”
for coverage and performance, driving the need for mesh, MU-
MIMO and Wi-Fi 6. Enterprise IT departments have had to support
numerous WFH complexities, including poor connectivity and
variable support for VPNs.
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 • Public and government recognition of the quality of home
broadband – both access to, and within the building itself – as
a much larger driver of economy, social welfare, and societal
resilience – has increased from its already-high levels.

• Government policies directly related to networking, such as releases

of unlicensed spectrum or incentives for accelerating broadband
deployments and upgrades have accelerated, whether for full-
fibre gigabit access, or more basic services for “connecting the
unconnected.”

• Government actions have had impact elsewhere, with indirect cut-

through to networks, such as revised thinking on smart cities and
buildings, or lower-density occupancy for retail and leisure facilities.
Cameras and drones are being used to enforce quarantines and
social distancing. Over time, that will filter through to in-building
wired and wireless infrastructure, including new approaches to
sensors, displays and automation.

• Economic impacts on enterprise are worsening – which could

mean delayed or cancelled projects in the short term (especially if
firms go out of business), but a longer-term view involving greater
automation, resilience and remote-working. Small businesses are
especially at risk, as well as some retail and travel sectors.

These changes will not all occur at the same rates, or with the same
emphasis, around the world. Different countries have experienced the
pandemic in different ways, and their governments, citizens and industries
will have heterogeneous requirements.

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Immediate responses
around Wi-Fi
We have already seen some effects on the Wi-Fi sector in the first few months of the pandemic. These have generally related to urgent, immediate
needs of customers – ensuring basic connectivity capabilities are in place and working / scaling well, and for vendors and SPs to secure their own supply
chains (and their employees’ safety).

This phase has resulted in:

• Increased consumer purchases of home Wi-Fi equipment especially meshes and extenders to improve coverage. This has often been direct
through online channels, rather than via upgrades provided by SPs, or through physical retail.

• Fewer purchases of small-business Wi-Fi equipment, reflecting lockdowns and cessations of business. Some governments have given grants or
loans to businesses, which can theoretically be used for refurbishments and new technology purchases, but the majority is used to support rent,
salaries other basic needs to keep firms afloat.

• Large decrease of Wi-Fi usage in public venues (such as cafes, hotels, and airports) as well as enterprise office settings, although manufacturing
and logistics facilities have largely been maintained. As lockdowns ease, this traffic will likely return patchily, reflecting legal and behavioral
adaptation.

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• Emergency deployments of Wi-Fi have occurred for COVID tents
outside hospitals and in car parks at schools and retailers where
in-vehicle wireless has been needed. To support homeschooling
for families without home broadband, additional coverage has
been provided by “Wi-Fi on Wheels” from school buses, or at public
libraries.

• A mixed picture for enterprise Wi-Fi, as some large companies

continue deployments, especially in critical industries and
healthcare. Some large organizations have used empty venues and
offices as an opportunity to upgrade infrastructure more easily,
while others have faced cashflow issues and cut back on inessential
work. Some businesses have helped WFH employees upgrade home
broadband and Wi-Fi or offered support on configuration and
troubleshooting. Some have also needed to upgrade their own VPN
capacity, together with their managed service providers.

• Stresses on supply chains for certain components due to factory

closures, as well as cargo/air-freight price and availability. This has
been exacerbated by the shift in product mix from enterprise- to
residential-grade routers and mesh nodes.

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What will happen to Wi-Fi
over the next year?
Now that the initial reactions to the pandemic have passed, broadband
demand for home users has mostly settled down, and some lockdown
restrictions have started easing, what is likely to happen next?

This section considers the likely Wi-Fi timeline over the next 12 months.
That is long enough for new service launches, product introductions,
software development, and shifts in go-to-market and channel. However,
it is not enough time for most fundamental shifts in underlying technology,
enduring behavioral shifts or government regulation.

First, it is worth setting out the probable near-term background trends

which will affect Wi-Fi sales and usage. Obviously, there are many
variables here – especially epidemiological and economic, but there is
some growing clarity over likely paths.

• Accelerated deployments and upgrades of consumer broadband,

with particular efforts focused on FTTx and FWA. In many countries,
gigabit speeds are becoming the new baseline.

• Somewhat delayed deployment of 5G, especially the later Release

16 versions most suited for private enterprise deployments, ultra-low
latency, and network slicing.

• Emergence of various new applications for the “new normal” –

new entertainment, online education, social media and WFH apps.
Software and cloud evolve faster than hardware, so in the next 12
months we should expect significant innovation. This will likely drive
further residential broadband and Wi-Fi traffic growth.

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• Many companies will continue to mandate employees working from
home until at least the end of 2020 – and some will see a permanent
shift away from offices, as well as fewer meetings and events. This
may delay enterprise Wi-Fi upgrades, although some buildings
may be refurbished / refitted for lower occupant densities, with IT
installations at the same time. However, WFH will also drive more
interest by enterprises in dedicated / improved home broadband
and Wi-Fi for their employees.

• Converged mobile / fixed operators will start marketing services

which are more resilient to changes in work / school from home, or
outdoor usage. The same services, content and other functions will
be readily available in any scenario.

• The economic downturn and recovery will cast a long shadow in

many sectors. Many businesses will fail, downsize, or refocus in the
next 12 months, with implications for their purchase of, and use of,
connectivity.

• There is a reasonable probability of a return to higher levels of

infection – and renewed lockdowns – over the next 12 months. It
will be necessary to prepare healthcare systems, logistics / supply
chains and other critical sectors to mitigate the risks, which may
include upgrading network infrastructure in some places.

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Given those trends, we can consider the implications for Wi-Fi products and SPs, specifically:

• Many SPs are likely to push rapidly towards Wi-Fi 6, especially for new and upgraded customers with 100Mbps/Gbps access connections. They
may combine improved Wi-Fi with other differentiated broadband services, such as managed QoS (quality of service) for enterprise WFH access
and VPNs, or especially demanding consumer groups such as gamers and VR/AR users.

• There will be growing use of assistant apps on smartphones, to enable better troubleshooting and optimization of home Wi-Fi, such as the setup
of mesh implementations, and to enable automated customer service and support.

• Continued growth in awareness and enthusiasm from consumers for better in-home Wi-Fi, especially if it is seen to be an easy upgrade – whether
provided by their ISP or through a direct retail purchase. Extenders and meshes will be in high demand.

• Vendors and silicon firms will see increased demand for Wi-Fi 6 products, with more focus on high performance, and support for advanced
features such as mesh and MU-MIMO. Over the next few months, it will still be difficult for physical travel, which may make some types of product
development and testing more difficult.

• Enterprises will look at a broad range of WFH options, including supporting VPNs on users’ existing broadband (perhaps with financial
contributions for upgrades to higher-tier products), or working with ISPs to enable separate SSIDs and QoS. Some will also consider provision of
dedicated 4G/5G-backhauled Wi-Fi hotspots to enable full end-to-end security and management, separate from the user’s normal broadband.

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• Continued deployments of Wi-Fi in industrial settings, aligned with
shifts to greater automation, robotics, and other advanced systems.
Early adoption of Wi-Fi 6 will also occur, as the technology starts
to mature, and device pricing becomes more affordable for IoT
applications. Delays to 5G standards – especially R16 and R17 with
network slicing and standalone cores optimized for private networks
– may swing the needle back towards Wi-Fi in some cases.

• Carrier-managed Wi-Fi offload from smartphones, using SIM-

based authentication, is quite rare today and mostly used in public
venues with high data traffic loads, or no reliable signal, for instance
on underground metro systems. These locations will start to be
used again – although continued deployment of carrier-managed
offload may be delayed. (Some statistics wrongly assert that all
smartphone Wi-Fi is “offload”, whereas in fact most is user-initiated
Wi-Fi use in homes and workplaces, rather than carrier-initiated.)

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Vision for Wi-Fi
over the next 3 years
Beyond a one-year view, the picture is harder to predict. As well as
macro-economic developments – and possible additional waves of
the pandemic – there are further unknowns about developments with
geopolitics, travel, long-term structural shifts in business, or fundamental
behavioral shifts of the population in terms of leisure and entertainment.
Will the world face a decade-long depression, or a swift v-shaped
bounce-back, or something more nuanced and complex? What will cities
look like?
It is unclear whether the “new normal” will look a lot like the old normal
– or conspicuously better or worse. There may be considerable regional
and national variations. For this reason, most vendors, enterprises, and
service providers will want to approach planning through a “scenario”
lens, understanding a few different possible worlds and how they might
impact their connectivity needs, and those of their employees and
customers.
Using the same approach as before, it is important to consider
background trends, before drilling into Wi-Fi specifics. This is a central
“best guess” scenario, but other more optimistic – or dystopian –
scenarios should be considered as well by strategists.
• A central economic scenario suggests a deep recession in
the second half of 2020, recovering unevenly in 2021-22, with
some countries and sectors structurally damaged, and some
demographic groups facing severe hardship – or higher taxes.
• While some businesses will fail or stagnate, other will demonstrate
phoenix-like rebirth, redoubling efforts on transformation and
automation, perhaps under new ownership and rescue funding.
• WFH will continue at a high level, as many companies reduce
reliance on offices, while business travel and event attendance
recover slowly and patchily.
• Periodic flare-ups of infections, and localized lockdown orders
mean continued emphasis on high-quality home broadband and
Wi-Fi is maintained by consumers, employers, and governments.
• Expect a focus on “just in case”, rather than “just in time”. Many
countries will start to build up domestic manufacturing and
stockpiling of medical supplies, electronics, and other critical
elements, in case of future supply-chain vulnerabilities.
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• Healthcare, public safety, logistics and other sectors will Taken together with other trends, this suggests that the mid-term
invest in new facilities – for example, virtual “waiting rooms” period from 2021-23 will see some acceleration in enterprise Wi-Fi
and much better wireless connectivity for occupants and staff again, especially for non-office businesses. There will be continued
of hospitals, and care homes. growth in importance for high-performance consumer home
broadband and IoT. It is less clear how rapidly the public Wi-Fi
• Smart cities and transport systems will be engineered to
and hotspot market will recover, as this will be heavily linked to the
mandate social distancing – or to be able to monitor and
successful renaissance of business travel and tourism, café culture,
implement it rapidly if required. We should expect more
and live mass entertainment and audience-heavy sports.
cameras, sensors, digital signage and so on.
Some Wi-Fi developments such as 6GHz are fascinating and
• Potential new regulations for “pandemic-proofing” buildings
opportunity-rich, but not directly linked to post-pandemic changes,
may emerge, including using sensors for occupancy
unless some governments accelerate their spectrum policy actions.
measurement and other roles. A variety of new smart-
It will, however, benefit from general pull-through from economic
building models will be needed – at the same time as
recovery and IoT adoption. 6GHz will start to become available for
general renewed focus on indoor and campus-wide wireless
Wi-Fi in late 2020 or early 2021, with steady growth from late 2021
connectivity for IoT and personal devices.
onwards. It will launch initially in the US, where an extra 1200MHz
• Climate change will return to the agenda, with greater use of is being made available for Wi-Fi 6E and other unlicensed uses,
smart energy management in homes, businesses and across including perhaps 5G NR-U. In Europe there will likely be 500MHz
public spaces. Connectivity for sensors and power grids will in the band made suitable for Wi-Fi, starting either later in 2021
become much denser. or in 2022. Other regions will likely follow similar paths, although
China’s stance on 6GHz seems more equivocal.
• 5G deployments will accelerate and become more
sophisticated with 3GPP Release 16 and 17 features. However,
indoor coverage will often remain poor, especially for the
highest frequencies and most demanding use-cases, unless
dedicated solutions are implemented. In most cases, 5G and
Wi-Fi will coexist in enterprise facilities, catering to different
needs and use-cases.

• New modes of entertainment, leisure, and retail will emerge,

blending real and virtual, online and offline, apps and
physicality – and using connectivity, cloud, edge, and mobility
in new and innovative fashion. While physical venues regain
popularity, a larger proportion of people will “attend”
remotely or virtually.
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We can expect the following post-COVID trends to emerge for Wi-Fi in this
period:

• Residential Wi-Fi continues to become more sophisticated, as the

growth of gigabit access accelerates, with both FTTx and 5G-based
FWA recording significant new adoption. Wi-Fi 6 will be the new
baseline for access points, as well as more sophisticated client
devices such as PCs, smartphones, and TVs. As price points come
down, 802.1ax features such as Target Wait Time should start to
appear in consumer IoT devices, for instance for healthcare use.

• Whole-home Wi-Fi connectivity will be essential, supporting

multiple video streams, 10+ concurrent users/devices, QoS for work
and gaming, smart-home IoT and much more. Poor 5G coverage
indoors (especially for mmWave) will shift even flat-rate users back
to Wi-Fi – but with high expectations for performance.

• Many new classes of high-end consumer (or “prosumer”)

broadband service and access devices will launch. This will include
residential SD-WAN, multi-access connections (mobile + fixed, 2 x
fixed, fixed + FWA etc.), QoS management tools, remote diagnostics
and so on. All will need high-performance Wi-Fi and security
elements. These will map to emerging segments of enterprise
remote access, managed service provision, cloud-based control and
more.

• We will see various new classes of wireless-connected IoT devices,

specifically geared to infection control and healthcare. A good
proportion will use Wi-Fi, either direct to access points, or using
device-to-device connections. Examples include:
– Infrared cameras for detecting fever in public spaces
– Disinfecting robots and other automated systems
– Personal connected thermometers and blood oximeters
– Enhanced wearables such as health bands and watches
– Asset-tracking tags in hospitals

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• New Wi-Fi functionalities such as motion-sensing and indoor
positioning (for instance with 802.11mc and .11az) may become
commercialized and perhaps become integral to smart homes,
hospitals, and offices, for occupancy measurement and other use-
cases. Adoption may be catalyzed by post-pandemic regulations
and new applications, although other competitive technologies and
approaches will emerge in tandem, so success is not guaranteed.

• Slow return to Wi-Fi upgrade cycle in major airports, hotels,

convention centers. Large public venues may use Wi-Fi sensing
and analytics to enforce social distancing measures, either on an
ongoing basis or during states of emergency.

• Some municipal and national authorities may push forward

plans for citywide Wi-Fi, partly as an emergency fallback for
homeschooling and telemedicine for citizens without home
broadband, in case of a resurgence of the virus.

• Growing use of Wi-Fi on buses and trains – partly for customers’

devices, but also to connect cameras, sensors and other IoT
equipment. Some countries’ acceptance of surveillance vs. privacy
may shift, as preventative healthcare becomes more valued.

• 60GHz and 802.11ay are likely to become more useful in both indoor
and outdoor scenarios. There will be a role to play for Wi-Fi based
FWA solutions, competing against 5G, and various high-bandwidth
/ low-latency uses indoor for IoT connectivity, video or AR streaming,
and much more. While some of this may be overshadowed by the
new industry focus on 6GHz, the ability to use unlicensed mmWave
radios retains significant potential as well.

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Implications for
Wi-Fi testing
In both the near and longer terms, the changes in Wi-Fi brought on by
the pandemic will be significant. There will be different use-cases and
applications, new deployment models, shifting user behavior and perhaps
regulatory angles from both a network and healthcare perspective. This is
all happening against a backdrop of massive evolution that was happening
already – Wi-Fi 6, meshes, 6GHz and 60GHz bands, and so on.

This will put a premium on new Wi-Fi testing approaches, new use-cases, and
greater needs for performance assurance as well. Silicon and device vendors,
SPs (which often have their own custom AP and router variants), enterprises
and industrial systems suppliers will all have new testing requirements.

In particular, stakeholders should expect:

• Growing requirements for test automation, as lockdowns and travel

stoppages have prevented engineers from visiting labs in person. Tests
will be run remotely, with additional video reviews and collaboration
needed between lab staff and clients. Engineers themselves will often
be working from home, with their own connectivity needs.

• Rapid cycles of testing for SPs wanting to ship new Wi-Fi 6 access
points, mobile hotspots, mesh nodes and additional services /
features such as VoWiFi and multi-user MIMO. There will be particular
challenges in developing suitable test approaches for mesh and whole-
home / multi-user coverage solutions.

• Specific test-cases aligning with lockdown / WFH-driven application

demand patterns – especially conferencing and cloud access, plus
Wi-Fi calling, gaming and education. On a 3-year view we may see
rapid emergence of new applications around telemedicine, healthcare
IoT and robotics, with stringent performance needs.
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• Wi-Fi service assurance and support tools will grow in importance
for enterprises with large bases of WFH employees. They will need
to test broadband connections, Wi-Fi performance and security
for workers’ home-office setups, advise on mesh and AP-siting,
as well as help configure and monitor any new QoS mechanisms
provided by SPs. Some enterprises will provide staff with standalone
mobile hotspots or FWA modems, rather than using general home
broadband, which will require additional testing and assurance.

• Growing demand for multi-network testing for converged

(fixed+mobile) broadband offers, whether that is around bonding,
multi-path TCP and QUIC, mobile offload and other scenarios both
in-building and across roaming / mobility boundaries.

• There will be a need to coordinate multi-party testing, for instance

where SPs offer enterprise-managed (and enterprise-monitored)
home broadband and Wi-Fi.

• Emergence of testing requirements for new features such as

consumer SD-WAN, complex interactions of VPNs and mesh Wi-Fi
systems, OFDMA, BSS coloring, target wait-time, motion-detection,
and more.

• In new smart homes, buildings and industrial facilities, there will

likely be complex combinations of Wi-Fi 6 with other wireless
technologies such as Bluetooth and privately deployed 4G and 5G.
Coexistence tests will be essential. In some cases, there may be
regulatory implications on connectivity performance and reliability.

• 6GHz will grow rapidly in importance from 2021 onwards. This

will bring a close focus on latency testing (at 2ms or less), as well
as 2Gbps+ throughput, as Wi-Fi 6E becomes used for industrial
automation and other ultra-demanding applications.

• SPs will continue preparing for peak usage in future emergencies,

with test scenarios including extreme network traffic loading and
integration with 5G rollouts. Spirent EBOOK 17
Conclusions and
recommendations
Broadband Service Providers
• Focus on matching high-quality whole-home Wi-Fi to new FTTx and
5G FWA customers, in anticipation of high load levels during current
and future emergencies

• Closely analyze application demand during the pandemic and

emerging in future months and years. Be particularly aware of
needs of upstream traffic for video/cloud, telemedicine, and VPN
performance running over Wi-Fi

• Develop WFH-centric broadband packages, including high-end

Wi-Fi equipment, for home-workers. Test and validate with
enterprises and key software/SaaS players

• Accelerate Wi-Fi 6 and mesh solutions to improve customer

experience, including companion apps for smartphones to aid
automated setup and self-care

Access Point / Client Vendors / Chipset Suppliers

• Expect continued demand for mesh deployment through both
SPs and direct sales to consumers. Test for new use-cases such as
enterprise VPNs, collaboration apps, differential per-user / device
QoS, etc.

• Work with enterprises to develop self-contained home-worker

bundles, with Wi-Fi 6 laptops or other client devices, premium
standalone APs, or 5G / Wi-Fi hotspots or modems, plus VPN
software

• Design, position and test Wi-Fi 6 & 6E solutions for IoT-rich

environments, especially industrial sites, hospitals and smart cities /
buildings. Partner with specialist solution and equipment providers
in those sectors Spirent EBOOK 18
Enterprises
• Consider greater in-house testing of Wi-Fi solutions provided for
WFH employees

• Work with select ISPs to develop managed-QoS packages for WFH

• Examine Wi-Fi roles for future smart buildings, e.g. for social
distancing, positioning, track & trace, etc.

• Optimize public hotspot implementations for future business and

travel patterns - provide Wi-Fi coverage in outdoor spaces, use
Wi-Fi to measure or enforce social distancing, etc.

Government and Regulatory Agencies

• Consider accelerated release of 6GHz unlicensed band for future
Wi-Fi uses in healthcare, automation, and IoT

• Extend broadband performance / coverage regulations or

guidelines to indoor environments

• Consider subsidies for home Wi-Fi upgrades, e.g. mesh

• Frame future “pandemic-proof” building codes in anticipation of

better indoor sensing, wireless connectivity, and infection-control
technologies

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The eBook was authored by Disruptive Analysis, a technology-focused
advisory firm focused on the mobile and wireless industry. Founded by
analyst & futurist Dean Bubley, it provides critical commentary and consulting
support to telecoms/IT vendors, operators, regulators, users, investors and
intermediaries.
Every reasonable effort has been made to verify research undertaken during
the work on this document. Findings, conclusions and recommendations
are based on information gathered in good faith from both primary and
secondary sources, whose accuracy it is not always possible to guarantee.
Disruptive Analysis Ltd. and Spirent Communications disclaim all warranties
as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. As such no
liability whatever can be accepted for actions taken based on any information
that may subsequently prove to be incorrect. The information contained herein
is subject to change without notice.

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