Aisha project

• aisha na jo btaya ha ma likh rahe hn

• forecasting kasay krtay han?

• major companies jin ko supply krtay han?

• no of customers, and per year supply to each customer, customers names

• high, low , medium quality products kis basis pa han

• ye sb details word ma type kr k osay mail krain

Forecasting

Introduction

Forecasting is the estimation of the value of a variable (or set of variables) at some future point
in time. In this note we will consider some methods for forecasting. A forecasting exercise is
usually carried out in order to provide an aid to decision-making and in planning the future.
Typically all such exercises work on the premise that if we can predict what the future will be
like we can modify our behaviour now to be in a better position, than we otherwise would
have been, when the future arrives. Applications for forecasting include:

• inventory control/production planning - forecasting the demand for a product

enables us to control the stock of raw materials and finished goods, plan the
production schedule, etc
• investment policy - forecasting financial information such as interest rates,
exchange rates, share prices, the price of gold, etc. This is an area in which
no one has yet developed a reliable (consistently accurate) forecasting
technique (or at least if they have they haven't told anybody!)

Following Method used for forecasting

TIME SERIES FORECASTING METHODS

1. time series forecasting methods are based on analysis of historical data (time series: a set
of observations measured at successive times or over successive periods). They make the
assumption that past patterns in data can be used to forecast future data points.
2. 1. moving averages (simple moving average, weighted moving average): forecast is
based on arithmetic average of a given number of past data points
 3. 2. exponential smoothing (single exponential smoothing, double exponential smoothing):
a type of weighted moving average that allows inclusion of trends, etc.
4. 3. mathematical models (trend lines, log-linear models, Fourier series, etc.): linear or
non-linear models fitted to time-series data, usually by regression methods
5. 4. Box-Jenkins methods: autocorrelation methods used to identify underlying time series
and to fit the "best" model

COMPONENTS OF TIME SERIES DEMAND

1. average: the mean of the observations over time

2. trend: a gradual increase or decrease in the average over time

3. seasonal influence: predictable short-term cycling behaviour due to time of day, week,
month, season, year, etc.

4. cyclical movement: unpredictable long-term cycling behaviour due to business cycle

or product/service life cycle

5. random error: remaining variation that cannot be explained by the other four
components

6. Moving average techniques forecast demand by calculating an average of actual

demands from a specified number of prior periods

each new forecast drops the demand in the oldest period and replaces it with the demand
in the most recent period; thus, the data in the calculation "moves" over time

MULTIPLICATIVE SEASONAL METHOD

It can range from true variation between seasons, to variation between months, weeks, days in
the week and even variation during a single day or hour.

To deal with seasonal effects in forecasting two tasks must be completed:

1. a forecast for the entire period (ie year) must be made using whatever forecasting
technique is appropriate. This forecast will be developed using whatever
2. the forecast must be adjust to reflect the seasonal effects in each period (ie month or
quarter)

high, low , medium quality products kis basis pa han

Ham in ko Mind ma rakh k pricing decide kerty hain mean k market

research kr ka on the following bases
Premium Pricing.

Use a high price where there is a uniqueness about the product or service. This approach is used
where a a substantial competitive advantage exists. Such high prices are charge for luxuries such
as Cunard Cruises, Savoy Hotel rooms, and Concorde flights.

Penetration Pricing.

The price charged for products and services is set artificially low in order to gain market share.
Once this is achieved, the price is increased. This approach was used by France Telecom and Sky
TV.

Economy Pricing.

This is a no frills low price. The cost of marketing and manufacture are kept at a minimum.
Supermarkets often have economy brands for soups, spaghetti, etc.

Price Skimming.

Charge a high price because you have a substantial competitive advantage. However, the
advantage is not sustainable. The high price tends to attract new competitors into the market, and
the price inevitably falls due to increased supply. Manufacturers of digital watches used a
skimming approach in the 1970s. Once other manufacturers were tempted into the market and
the watches were produced at a lower unit cost, other marketing strategies and pricing
approaches are implemented.