Flash Note

Chemicals – Channel checks 28 February 2022

Prices easing, however, dealers cautious amid Ukraine crisis…

Our channel checks indicates that easing of logistics over the past few weeks coupled with resumption
of manufacturing activities in China is leading to prices cooling off. However, the dealers were cautious
amid Ukraine crisis as it could again lead to firming up of prices especially Ammonia and its downstream
products. We are keeping tab on these developments. Some of the key highlights from our fortnightly
checks are as follows.
Refrigerant prices have corrected steeply MoM on the back of muted demand due to off-season and
easing of logistics. Prices of R134A/R22/R410/R32 have declined by 11.9%/5.6%/12.7%/6.8% MoM, respectively.
Carbon Black prices have declined by 10.7% MoM to Rs 125/kg while Ethyl Acetate prices were also lower by
5.7% MoM to Rs 115/kg.
However, Caustic Soda flakes prices have increased by 7.7% MoM to Rs 70/kg on the back of higher coal
prices as well as strong demand.
MDI prices too increased by 7.0% MoM to Rs 230/kg.
Note: These prices are as indicated by dealers and are inclusive of taxes in some cases and hence, the
prices would tend to vary with the company specific ex-factory gate prices.
Phenol spreads at US$ 786/MT...
Over the past 14 days, phenol spreads were down 17.1% to US$ 786/MT. Average spreads for 4Q’22 are now
up 21.9% YoY and up 16.5% QoQ to US$ 905/MT.
We understand that the spreads for Deepak Nitrite are 15-20% higher than mathematical calculations as
they enjoy operational efficiencies.

Phenol spreads – Over the years Phenol spreads – One-year trend

2,000 1,100

1,500 900
US$/MT

US$/MT

1,000 700

500 500

0 300
25-Feb-15
25-Aug-15
25-Feb-16
25-Aug-16
25-Feb-17
25-Aug-17
25-Feb-18
25-Aug-18
25-Feb-19
25-Aug-19
25-Feb-20
25-Aug-20
25-Feb-21
25-Aug-21
25-Feb-22

25-May-21

25-Jun-21

25-Sep-21
25-Apr-21

25-Dec-21
25-Oct-21

25-Jan-22
25-Nov-21
25-Feb-21
25-Mar-21

25-Jul-21

25-Feb-22
25-Aug-21

Phenol Spreads Phenol Spreads

Source: Bloomberg, B&K Research

1
 Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg

60
110

100

70
80
90
300
400
600

0
100
500

200
700

150

100
300

250

200
Flash Note

Feb'19 Dec'19 Aug-19

Feb-19 Oct-19
May'19

Source: B&K Research

Source: B&K Research
Source: B&K Research
Dec-19

Price trend – TDI

Aug'19 Apr-20
Feb-20
June'20
Nov'19 Apr-20
Aug'20

H-acid
Feb-20 June'20
Oct'20 Aug'20
May'20
Dec'20 Oct'20
Aug'20
Feb'21 Dec'20
Chemicals – Channel checks

Price trend – Phthalic Anhydride

TDI
Nov'20 Feb'21
Apr'21
Feb'21 Jun'21 Apr'21

Phthalic Anhydride
Jun'21
Price trend – H-Acid and Vinyl Sulphone

May'21 Aug'21
Aug'21
Aug'21 Oct'21
Vinyl Sulphone

Oct'21
Nov'21 Dec'21
Dec'21
Feb'22 Feb'22 Feb'22

2
Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg

30

10
50
70
90
140
290

110
260

50
230

20
170

80
200

400
600

200
800

Feb'19 Feb'19 Feb'19

May'19 May'19 Apr'19
Jun'19
Aug'19

R 410
Aug'19 Aug'19

R134a
Nov'19 Oct'19
Nov'19
Feb'20 Dec'19
Feb-20 Feb-19
May'20
ABS

China Fluorspar
Price trend – Refrigerants

May'20 Apr-20
Aug'20 June'20
Aug'20 Nov'20 Aug'20
Nov'20 Feb'21 Oct'20
R32

Price trend – Caustic Soda Flakes

R 22
Price trend – ABS and Polystyrene

Dec'20
Feb'21 May'21
Feb'21
Aug'21

Caustic Soda Flakes

Apr'21
May'21
PS

Nov'21 Jun'21
Aug'21 Aug'21
Feb'22
Oct'21
Nov'21
15
25
35
45

Dec'21
Feb'22 Rs/ kg Feb'22
Flash Note
Chemicals – Channel checks

Channel checks

Std Last Feb 21 Jan 22 Feb 22 YoY MoM Companies having exposure
Chemicals
updated (%) (%)
Rs/kg 26/02/2022 30 65 70 133.3 7.7 Gujarat Fluorochemicals, GACL,
Meghmani Finechem, Atul,
Caustic Soda
Chemplast Sanmar, DCW, TGV
Flakes
SRAAC, DCM Shriram
Elevated coal prices have led to sustained high Caustic Soda prices.
Rs/kg 26/02/2022 220 215 230 4.5 7.0 BASF
MDI
Prices remain at elevated level supported by strong demand from end users.
ABS Rs/kg 26/02/2022 275 210 205 (25.5) (2.4) INEOS Styrolution, Bhansali Engg.
Rs/kg 26/02/2022 105 140 125 19.0 (10.7) Phillips Carbon Black, Himadri
Speciality Chemical
Carbon Black
Prices have corrected further; however, remains at elevated led by strong demand from tyre and
plastics industry.
Ethyl Acetate Rs/kg 26/02/2022 NA 122 115 – (5.7) GNFC, Laxmi Organics
R-134A Rs/kg 26/02/2022 560 590 520 (7.1) (11.9) SRF
R-22 Rs/kg 26/02/2022 560 540 510 (8.9) (5.6) SRF, Navin Fluorine, Gujarat Fluoro
R-410 Rs/kg 26/02/2022 430 630 550 27.9 (12.7) SRF, Navin Fluorine, Gujarat Fluoro
Rs/kg 26/02/2022 430 440 410 (4.7) (6.8) SRF, Gujarat Fluoro
R-32
Prices have corrected owing to easing of logistics issues and also due to off season.
Chloroform Rs/kg 26/02/2022 NA 34 35 – 2.9 SRF, Meghmani Finechem, GACL
Rs/kg 26/02/2022 86 235 230 167.4 (2.1) Vinati Organics, Apcotex, Bhansali
Acrylonitrile
Engineering, INEOS (RM)
Rs/kg 16/02/2022 100 85 103 3.0 21.2 IG Petro Chemicals, Thirumalai
Phthalic
Chemicals
Anhydride
Prices start to correct as supply chain starts normalising.
Rs/kg 16/02/2022 117 170 198 69.2 16.5 IG Petro Chemicals, Thirumalai
Maleic
Chemicals
Anhydride
Prices starts to correct as supply chain starts normalising.
Rs/kg 16/02/2022 72 120 129 79.2 7.5 IG Petro Chemicals and
Benzoic Acid
Thirumalai Chemicals
Rs/kg 16/02/2022 145 210 240 65.5 14.3 Galaxy, Aarti Surfactants and
SLS
Ultramarine Pigments
Rs/kg 16/02/2022 49 54 60 22.4 11.1 Galaxy, Aarti Surfactants and
SLES
Ultramarine Pigments
Rs/kg 16/02/2022 96 133 155 61.5 16.5 Galaxy, Aarti Surfactants and
LABSA
Ultramarine Pigments
Vinyl Acetate Rs/kg 16/02/2022 185 170 200 8.1 17.6 Pidilite Industries (RM)
Monomer
Rs/kg 16/02/2022 330 370 375 13.6 1.4 Meghmani Organics, Sudarshan
CPC Blue
Chemical Industries
Beta Blue Rs/kg 16/02/2022 360 475 475 31.9 –
Alpha Blue Rs/kg 16/02/2022 460 460 460 – –

3
Flash Note
Chemicals – Channel checks

Std Last Feb 21 Jan 22 Feb 22 YoY MoM Companies having exposure
Chemicals
updated (%) (%)
Rs/kg 16/02/2022 530 555 560 5.7 0.9
Pigment Green
Demand remains subdued and supply constraint persists.
Paste PVC Rs/kg 16/02/2022 – 195 195 – – Chemplast Sanmar
Phenol Rs/kg 16/02/2022 112 132 130 16.1 (1.5) Deepak Nitrite
Acetone Rs/kg 16/02/2022 86 72 75 (12.8) 4.2 Deepak Nitrite
TDI Rs/kg 16/02/2022 205 232 270 31.7 16.4 GNFC
Rs/kg 16/02/2022 250 375 370 48.0 (1.3) Bodal, Shree Pushkar, Bhageria,
Vinyl Sulphone
Kiri
Rs/kg 16/02/2022 425 515 505 18.8 (1.9) Bodal, Shree Pushkar, Bhageria,
H-Acid
Kiri
Iso-Propyl Rs/kg 16/02/2022 108 95 96 (11.1) 1.1 Deepak Nitrite, Deepak Fertilizers
Alcohol
Rs/kg 16/02/2022 130 150 150 15.4 – Supreme Petro, INEOS Styrolution
Polystyrene
Prices sustained at higher levels due to healthy domestic demand.
DASDA Rs/kg 16/02/2022 350 940 880 151.4 (6.4) Deepak Nitrite
Soda Ash Rs/kg 16/02/2022 25 33.0 32.0 28.0 (3.0) Tata Chemicals, GHCL
Acetic Acid Rs/kg 16/02/2022 – 96 78 – (18.8) GNFC
Note:
1) These prices are as indicated by dealers and are inclusive of taxes in some cases and hence the prices would tend to vary with the company
specific ex-factory gate prices.
2) The companies highlighted are to the best of our knowledge and need not necessarily the only universe.

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2022/2/Chemicals - Channel checks - Flash Note - 16 Feb 22.pdf
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2022/1/Chemicals - Channel checks - Flash Note - 31 Jan 22.pdf

Ranjit Cirumalla Viral Shah

Research Analyst Research Analyst
ranjit.cirumalla@bksec.com viral.shah@bksec.com
+91-22-4031 7127 +91-22-4031 7000

4
Flash Note
Chemicals – Channel checks

B&K Universe Profile – by AMFI Definition

140
128
120

No. of companies
100 84
74
80
60
40
20
0
Top 100 Next 150 Residual
(Large Cap) (Mid Cap) (Small Cap)

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B&K Investment Ratings

LARGE CAP (Market Cap > USD 2 bn) MID & SMALL CAP (Market Cap < USD 2 bn)

BUY >+15% >+20%

HOLD +15% to -10 % +20% to -15 %

SELL <-10% <-15%

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5
Flash Note
Chemicals – Channel checks

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