Zoned to Shrink

Mark Samaan & Nick Keeling

All These Houses Can’t Be Built Today
● More than 1 unit per lot not allowed in 53% of all residential land in
Cincinnati

● Building residences without parking is not allowed in 98.9% of all

residential land in Cincinnati (~25% of households have no car)

● Building residences with fewer than 2 spaces per unit is not allowed in
54% of all residential land in Cincinnati
How Does This Affect Us?
● Where housing supply can be built is a municipal function in Ohio

● A major part of the cost of housing (owning and renting) is the mismatch
between housing supply and demand for households at different income
levels
○ In Ohio, non-subsidized housing property owners are free to set whatever rent they wish for any
reason with 30 days notice once a contract lease ends
○ Rent control is prohibited in Ohio for non-subsidized housing

● Housing is non-negotiable in a family’s budget – pay for it or else

If They Were Gone Would That Be Better?
● Zoning codifies into law what a city believes should exist in an area

● Would Cincinnati be better off if these buildings were demolished and one
(1) single-family home was in their place?

● Would housing be cheaper if that happened? (No)

This is What is Happening in Cincinnati Right Now

● As the rental and home buying market heats up, redevelopment of

existing properties is occurring – both vacant and occupied buildings

● As most residential land is zoned single-family only, much of the

redevelopment is not tear downs and rebuilds but renovations and
rehabs

● The older, cheaper housing stock that has housed generations of

Cincinatians affordably is becoming unaffordable and more renter
occupied
 Cincinnati Rental Units Change 2010-2019
by Monthly Gross Rent Category
30,000
26,620

25,000
22,757

20,000
17,080

14,423 14,502
15,000

9,608 9,750
10,000
7,773 8,007
5,753
5,207
4,623
5,000 3,747
2,886
2,336 2,035
1,280 953

0
<$200

>$2000
$1000 to $1249

$1250 to $1499

$1500 to $1999
$200 to $399

$400 to $599

$600 to $799

$800 to $999
Cincy 2010 Cincy 2019
Real World Data - Northside
Neighborhood Stats
$800/month
 Northside
Non-SF
2010-2019
building in
SF zone
2021 Parcel Data - Northside
Last Sale Data by Residential Land Use Type - Northside
Northside Takeaways
● Many vacant units were either demolished or became occupied
○ There are 324 more occupied units but 172 fewer units overall

● Northside is now a more mixed-income community

○ Median HH Income rose by ~50%
○ 344 units renting at more than $1,000/month were added
○ 382 units renting at less than $600/month were lost

● Prices are rising as higher priced units are added while existing cheaper
housing stock becomes more expensive
Northside Takeaways
● The affordable housing stock is slipping away

● The vast majority of 1 to 4-unit buildings were built before 1946 and most
before the 1920’s

● In most of the neighborhood only new single-family homes can be built

○ High development pressure creates higher prices for existing homes
○ New construction incentivized to be as high value as possible, so more expensive single-
family homes replace vacant lots and existing 2 and 3-unit buildings
Last Thoughts
● Cincinnati is now a growing city yet we are zoned to shrink

● Housing costs both purchase and rent have gone up faster than inflation
in Cincinnati - for the first time in decades

● Many of the housing buildings we know and consider to be “core

Cincinnati housing stock” cannot be built today in most of the City

● High development pressures in areas zoned single-family will make the

existing housing stock more expensive
Thank You!