Equity Research

Company Update

Monday,11 April 2022

BUY GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ)

Initiate Go far, Go hyperlocal
Last price (IDR) 338 The GoTo merger has given rise to new growth dimensions for GTV through
Target Price (IDR) 400 platform integration and the use of Gopay to capture fintech opportunities.
GoTo will ride Indonesia’s GTV growth with ~30% cagr 2021-25. Hyperlocal
Upside/Downside 18.3%
strategies will be employed for the instant delivery of groceries and cloud
Previous Target Price (IDR) - kitchen. We discern a pathway to positive EBIT in 2025. We initiate coverage on
GoTo with a BUY, applying P/GMV multiples on GoTo businesses. Shareholders
Stock Statistics
include leading techs that will ensure GoTo remains relevant in a very dynamic
Sector Technology sector.
No of Shrs (mn) 1,180,184
New growth dimensions stemming from the GoTo merger. The recent merger of
Major shareholders (%) Gojek and Tokopedia adds two new growth dimensions to GoTo, namely: a) the
network effects from platform integration leading to higher GTV generation with
Goto Peopleverse Fund 9.0
a higher frequency of orders and higher spend, b) Gopay turning into a key
SVF GT Subco 8.7 revenues pillar to seize fintech opportunities emanating from on-demand and e-
Estimated free float 13.7 commerce GTV, even more so with (a), and vice versa. Also, the merger itself has
created a vacuum for users previously served under the Tokopedia-Grab-OVO
partnership, a low hanging fruit for Gojek and Gopay, in our view.
Solid catalysts for GoTo. GoTo will ride the high GTV growth of ~30% cagr in 2021-
25. Catalysts include the increased mobility for Gojek post the pandemic. The
fintech catalyst is the low penetration of ~2.9% in Indonesia and the Tokopedia
catalyst is the instant delivery opportunity going hyperlocal and leveraging
Gojek’s fleet. Similarly, Gojek may utilize the hyperlocal approach to generate
more GTV through cloud kitchens & food delivery. Tokopedia’s nationwide
coverage – 17,000 islands, provides a market upside catalyst for Gojek logistics.
Discerning a profitability pathway. We discern a pathway to improving GoTo
profitability, stemming from: a) GTV high growth b) potentially lower promotions
as loyalty effects can kick-in from technology, and c) more efficient
sales/marketing by promoting unified offering(s) with e-commerce, delivery &
payments. Gojek itself has a favorable market position with +50% market share
expecting to post positive EBIT by 2023. This trajectory may prove enough to
create positive EBIT for GoTo by 2025. E-commerce and fintech pillars will be
closer and create breakeven EBIT by holding on to their market shares and
maintaining a solid user base.
GoTo steps for value creation in the longer term. GoTo is tied with shareholders
incl. Alibaba, Alphabet, Tencent and Microsoft. This ensures GoTo will stay at the
forefront of tech trends. This includes the adoption of blockchain, positioning in
the metaverse space and adoption of digital currencies. The GoTo platform is
highly generic, broad and collaborative, allowing the company to expand into new
income streams riding existing infra and accelerating the pathway to profitability.
Initiate coverage with a BUY, TP of IDR400: We employ a P/GMV multiple to
evaluate GoTo, as the company is focused on generating GTV. We evaluate the 3
business pillars separately. We assign a P/GMV multiple of 0.80x for the on-
demand business and e-commerce for the 2021-25 GMV, and 0.30x for the fintech
GTV. We initiate coverage on GoTo with a TP of IDR400.
Key Financials
Year to 31 Dec 2019A 2020A 2021F 2022F 2023F
Revenue (IDRbn) 2,304 3,328 7,366 11,096 16,035
EBITDA (IDRbn) (20,062) (8,920) (12,408) (10,398) (7,741)
EBITDA Growth (%) 77.3 (55.5) 39.1 (16.2) (25.6)
Niko Margaronis Net profit (IDRbn) (22,762) (14,209) (12,737) (11,774) (9,092)
(62-21) 5091 4100 ext. 3512 EPS (IDR) (19.3) (12.0) (10.8) (10.0) (7.7)
niko.margaronis@brids.co.id EPS growth (%) 102.5 (37.6) (10.4) (7.6) (22.8)
BVPS (IDR) 14.4 17.0 106.2 99.1 91.4
DPS (IDR) 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.7
PER (x) n/m n/m n/m n/m n/m
PBV (x) 33.2 28.0 4.5 4.8 5.2
bridanareksasekuritas.co.id EV/EBITDA (x)
See important
(27.9)
disclosure at the back
(62.0) (44.1)
of this report
(53.4)
1
(72.8)
 Exhibit 1. Revenues and Growth Exhibit 2. Net Profits and Growth

Source: Company, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas estimates Source: Company, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas estimates

Exhibit 3. Margins Exhibit 4. Gearing Level

Source: Company, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas estimates Source: Company, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas estimates

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 Diving into GoTo’s operations
Background: Gojek, Gopay, & Tokopedia problem
solvers

Gojek with Gopay and Tokopedia themselves came to the market as startups to
solve market problems for consumers, merchants & partner drivers as key
stakeholders creating a wider ecosystem of services based on the needs and
attributes of these 3 groups.
Those startups brought innovation in first/middle/last mile Logistics, Merchant
business solutions, Payment and financial services, Data & insights and
Technology implementation. They can be categorized by each group:

Consumers:

- All-in-one platform that meets daily needs

- Access to various goods and quality service at affordable prices
- Fast and reliable delivery of goods and services
- Integrated payment and financial services
- Integrated loyalty program
- Seamless user experience in the whole ecosystem

Merchants:

- Access to consumer networks that are wider than traditional channels

- Integrated technology solutions that makes it easier for traders to
develop and manage their businesses
- Integrated delivery infrastructure and order fulfillment
- Inclusive payment and financial services
- Education and training programs

Partner drivers:

- Increased opportunities for income

- Flexibility of work schedule
- GoTo own proprietary technology that increases driver partner’s
productivity
- Non-cash payments that makes it easier for partner drivers
- Educational programs, training and support for driver partners.

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 Gojek & Tokopedia merger

The two merging and becoming GoTo creates two (2) new
dimensions namely Gojek and Tokopedia integration and
secondly promoting goto financial as a strategic pillar.

1) Merger Dimension 1, deeper integration of the Gojek and Tokopedia

platforms. Gojek and Tokopedia internalize into each other to the greatest
extent possible, formulating a new ecosystem flywheel. This will allow agents to
work more closely with each other, in this case the merchants and the drivers
synergizing with each other.

Exhibit 5. Ecosystem flywheels between partners (drivers and merchants) and consumer users

Source: GoTo

Merger synergies unmatched by competition. GoTo expects strong synergies

between its 2.5mn driver partners, 14mn merchants, working in a close loop to
deliver seamless services to 55mn consumers. This is supported by its own
logistics & fulfillment, merchant solutions, payment & financial services, data
insights, and network effects. Those merger synergies can be identified as
follows:

Network effects:
- More innovation
- More frequent use
- Higher Customer Engagement
- Deeper Understanding of Customers
- More diverse products and services
- Better user experience
Operational efficiencies:
- Higher sales volume and revenues
- Lower cost per user
- Lower cost per service

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 This integration / merger is expected to penetrate further into the daily life of
the users making use of GoTo indispensable for everyday use.

Exhibit 6. Illustration of the GoTo platform used by the consumer

Source: GoTo

GOJEK biz in brief

Consumers can use Gojek’s proprietary technology and user interface, powered
by Google in the following ways:

Gojek on-demand transport using either: Goride motorcycle ride available in

Indonesia and Vietnam.
- Gocar car transport available in Indonesia, Singapore and Vietnam,
- Gocar L,
- GoTaxi in partnership with Bluebird using the argo meter,
- GoCorp for corporate clients available in Indonesia and Singapore.
- GoTransit multimode transportation,
- Food order & delivery using GoFood Pick up, GoFood Plus, GoMart, and
Cloud Kitchen using hyperlocal strategies. Cloud kitchens are essentially
virtual restaurants -- ones without a storefront – which find the lower
upfront and operating costs enticing. Traditional dine-ins use the model
to broaden reach. Besides sharing rent and revenues, cloud-kitchen
operators can generate insights that allow restaurants to dynamically
adjust locations, menus and marketing based on demand.

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 Exhibit 7. Gojek on-demand services portfolio

Source: GoTo

Exhibit 8. Gojek comparison with Grab for motorcycle and car rides

Source: Measureable ai
Gojek logistic services such as:
- GoSend: C2C-based solution for the delivery of goods,
- GoKilat: B2B2C solution for merchants to monitor the delivery of goods,
- GoShop: consumer solution to order the delivery of goods,
- GoBox: solution for the delivery of large sized goods
Exhibit 9. Gojek application menu for GoFood delivery

Source: GoTo

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 Tokopedia biz in brief

The consumer can buy online through Tokopedia’s marketplace. GoTo through
Tokopedia provides a complete technology infrastructure and trading solutions
with 99% reach of sub-districts in Indonesia, encouraging economic equity for
consumers and traders. Tokopedia has a balanced mix of service categories with
more than 638 million SKUs as of 30 September 2021. Redseer research suggests
that Tokopedia is one of the largest e-commerce players in Indonesia.
SimilarWeb suggests that during the first 7 months of 2021, Tokopedia
processed 380mn searches per month.

Exhibit 10. Tokopedia e-commerce services portfolio

Source: GoTo

Key services through Tokopedia are:

- The Tokopedia Marketplace. Established in 2015, the Tokopedia

marketplace has 12mn registered merchants as of 30.09.21 that
includes individual entrepreneurs and MSMEs. They sell fashion, beauty
& skincare, FMCG, child & mother care needs, household necessities,
automotive, electronic goods and accessories et al. Tokopedia also sells
services offline incl. phone credits, utility bills, toll fee cards, vouchers
and other payments.
- Tokopedia Official store, where thousands of local, international brands
and distributors sell their goods via the B2C model.
- Tokopedia Instant Commerce: Launched in July 2021, Tokopedia has
entered a significant growth area with Tokopedia Now, leveraging its
hyperlocal strategy to bring quick deliveries down to 30 minutes on
average.
- Interactive commerce with Tokopedia Play: for interactive e-commerce
employing live shopping & video to showcase the product and case use
influencers.
- Rural Commerce with Mitra Tokopedia: established in 2018, assisting
small partners incl. warungs to become Mitra partners and access
physical and digital goods. As of 30.09.21 there were 2mn Mitra
Tokopedia partners.

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 Tokopedia Logistics & fulfillment
Tokopedia also undertakes the logistics and fulfilment of the orders made
through its channels. Tokopedia processes order deliveries throughout
Indonesia with 60% of the deliveries made the same day or next. Tokopedia has
13 established partners incl. Gojek to carry through fulfilment and sorting
deliveries in this wide geography incl. first, middle and last mile. Tokopedia seeks
to improve logistics and fulfilment for a wider selection of products for
consumers outside Jabodetabek. Moreover, it seeks to improve fulfilment
capacity through data integration with the Gojek fleet for the last mile and
create seamless same day delivery at affordable prices for the consumer. It also
seeks to better utilize the Gojek fleet and drive synergies making possible the
offering of an integrated eCommerce solution to its sellers.
Another emerging trend in eCommerce is free delivery. This gives Tokopedia a
distinctive edge if the logistics are in-house, reducing the cost of delivery to a
great degree and reducing the costs for its sellers and ultimately users. Sicepat
and Anteraja are recorded as key logistics partners for Tokopedia.

Through smart warehousing (Tokocabang) and PT SLS, a wholly owned

subsidiary of Tokopedia, merchants can store their inventory and handle their
fulfilment.

A hyperlocal strategy is key for GoTo’s growth into new areas such as fresh
groceries and cloud kitchen. This is made possible meeting the fulfillment of
merchants’ products and having faster deliveries with the availability of dark
stores and the largest fleet of drivers (vans, motors etc). Free delivery, safe and
fast delivery, including same-day and instant delivery options provided by Gojek
will add to the overall customer experience of Tokopedia users.

Exhibit 11. GoTo illustration of Hyperlocal strategies

Source: GoTo

Tokopedia also offers the following services to merchants:

P4P Pay for Performance advertising charging the merchant on a per click basis
for keywords at a price set through an online auction system.
Display advertising, for placing advertisements charging the merchant on a per
impression cost at a price set through auction
Customized Marketing packages, offering advertising solution merchants that
includes TV, P4P exposure.

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 2) Dimension 2 born from the merger: The new dimension born from this
merger is the distinction of the financial services unit goto financial under Goto’s
ecosystem flywheel. This is now promoted as a profit center that focuses on both
consumers and MSMEs with limited financial inclusion, access to financial
services, investments and liquidity. As such, the GoTo flywheel will be centered
on those 3 strategic pillars, i.e. on-demand, e-commerce and fintech. Tokopedia
is seen to be phasing out use of OVO and gradually connecting users with the
Gopay e-wallet.

Exhibit 12. goto financial promotion as a strategic revenues pillar and relevant organizational chart

Source: GoTo, TechinAsia

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 goto financial biz in brief

goto financial key services include:

goto financial payments enabled by Gopay. Services under Gopay include:

- consumer payments such as e-money, e-wallet, GoPayLater, the
payment of installments and credit/debit cards, Gopay coins and auto-
debit.
- Merchant payments whereby Midtrans offers a payment gateway for
established merchants as well as small businesses connecting with all
Indonesian banks and enabling the integration of about 24 methods of
payments available. Gopay merchants can integrate e-money as well as
the IRIS national payments channel.
goto financial services. These include:
- GoPayLater at the end of the month: Under certain conditions,
consumers can receive credit to pay for goods/services in GoTo’s
ecosystem and outside, to mature at the end of the month. This bill will
be integrated with Gopay.
- GoPayLater with instalments
- GoModal merchant Lending: offers merchants liquidity and working
capital for transactions within GoTo’s ecosystem under certain
conditions.
- GoSure insurance: Consumers can buy insurance incl. health, life
insurance, personal safety, travel et al. from GoTo merchant partners.
- GoInvestasi investments, helping consumers to invest in gold and
mutual funds from GoTo partners.
Goto fintech solutions for merchants. These include MOKA and the GoBiz point-
of-sale cloud based solutions for small entrepreneurs (kaki lima) and social
ecommerce. The GoStore solution is specifically designed for social ecommerce
sellers to open stores online with Instagram Shop, Facebook Shop and Google
Shopping. goto financial actively engages with bank institutions for integrating
the top-up e-wallet service, offer financial services and digital banking with a
preference for Bank Jago in which GoTo holds a minority stake.

Exhibit 13. goto financial services portfolio

Source: GoTo

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 Business projections and analysis:
GoTo on-demand services; ride hailing and
food delivery
The Indonesian GTV market for on-demand services ended 2021 with GTV of
Rp91.52tn with Gojek controlling ~53% of the market dominating the market
with GRAB. The on-demand market was challenging in 2020 due to Covid-19
mobility restrictions. Nonetheless, the trend is more than likely to reverse with
increased mobility from re-opening of the economy. As per Redseer, the market
is expected to grow by 27% cagr in 2021-25.

Exhibit 14. GoTo GTV on-demand services

Rp trillion GoTo GTV on-demand services

300
257
250

200
145
150 123 2021-25
cagr: 31%
90 92
100 77 68
57 56 48
33 40
50

0
2018 2019 2020 FY21e FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25
Indonesia on-demand GTV market GoTo on-demand GTV
Source: GoTo, Redseer, BRIDS

Gojek GTV for on-demand services was challenging in 2020 due to Covid-19
restrictions in mobility. Nonetheless, net revenues for GoTo was resilient as on-
demand food delivery benefited during the pandemic. We expect GoTo to ride
Indonesia’s GTV projection and conservatively maintain the same take rate of
20% to gross revenues during the projection period as well as high promotional
expenses amid rising competition in ride hailing and food delivery from new
players such as Shopee, AirAsia, Maxim, and Indriver expecting to see some
differentiation.
On the other hand, Tokopedia was tied operationally with OVO and GRAB. With
the recent merger we should expect more promotions to a large part of
Tokopedia users base to switch to Gojek ride hailing and delivery services.
We expect GoTo to maintain a minimum 45% of the acquisition market share
going to 2025, and maintain total market share at a minimum 50% level from
58% in 2021.

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 Exhibit 15. GoTo on-demand gross revenues, take rate, net revenues
Rp trillion % take rate
35 20,2%
20,2% 20,2% 20,2% 20,2% 29,3
30 18,6%
25
13,5% cagr
20 11,0% 17,5 2021-
13,7 25: 31%
15
9,9
10 7,5 7,5
3,6
5
0
2018 2019 2020 FY21e FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25
Gross revenue on-demand Net revenue on-demand
Source: GoTo, Redseer, BRIDS

GoTo e-commerce services

As per Redseer, the Indonesian e-commerce GTV market ended 2021 at Rp964tn
with Gojek controlling ~23% of the market. The market is expected to grow by
25% cagr in the 2020-25 period. We expect GoTo to maintain a minimum 25% of
the acquisition market share going to 2025, gradually increasing the total market
share to around the 28% level.

Exhibit 16. GoTo e-commerce GTV

Rp trillion
2.500
1.966
2.000

1.500 1.230
964
1.000
638 570
399 317
500 248 235 2021-25
166 158
73 cagr: 25%
0
2018 2019 2020 FY21e FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25
Indonesia E-commerce GTV market GoTo e-commerce GTV*
Source: GoTo, Redseer, BRIDS

We expect GoTo ecommerce to ride the Indonesian GTV growth due to: a) the
extent of network merchants, b) increasing consumer adoption and penetration
with more users and higher buying frequency, c) the breadth of SKUs, d) the
improving ability to better serve the first & middle mile logistics, as well as
leverage the last mile to conduct delivery of e-groceries. This is especially true,
if GoTo manages to leverage the offline footprint of MPPA stores. We expect the
take rate to improve moderately to 3.1% on its gross revenues, because
competition with Shopee will likely remain stiff in the foreseeable future. E-
commerce revenues may thus grow by 36% cagr in 2021-25 and be maintained
at about the same rate for promotions cutting the gross revenues.

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 Exhibit 17. GoTo e-commerce gross revenues, take rate, net revenues

Rp trillion % take rate

20 3,1%
2,9% 17,9
2,6% 2,6% 2,6%
14,1
15 2,2%
10,6 10,0 cagr
10 8,4
7,6 2021-
1,0%
0,8% 5,5 25: 36%
4,4 4,2
5 3,5
1,7 2,1
0,6 0,0 0,0 0,0
0
2018 2019 2020 FY21e FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25
Gross revenue e-commerce* Net revenue e-commerce
Source: GoTo, Redseer, BRIDS

GoTo Fintech services

As per Redseer, the Indonesian fintech GTV market will close 2021 at ~Rp400tn,
grow slowly in the beginning in one of the least penetrated markets before
taking off with GTV expected to increase more than 2-fold by 2025 as financial
inclusion and empowerment of the underbanked population kicks in. Gojek
controls ~23% of the market with the other players DANA and OVO playing a
significant role in this space. E-wallets have been used as supporting instruments
for ride-hailing and e-commerce, but we expect goto financial to grow with the
rise of consumer investments and merchant empowerment. The market is
expected to grow by 25% cagr in the 2020-25 period. We expect GoTo to
maintain a minimum 25% of acquisition market share going to 2025, and
increase gradually the total market share to around the 28% level by leveraging
the consumers and merchants of Gojek and Tokopedia.

Exhibit 18. GoTo fintech GTV

Rp trillion
1.200
1.002
1.000

800

600 503
440
400
400 2021-25 cagr:
255 222 26%
202
200 129118 120
35 61
0
2018 2019 2020 FY21e FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25
Indonesia GTV fintech market GoTo Fintech GTV
Source: GoTo, Redseer, BRIDS

We expect the goto financial services pillar to focus on consumer penetration

for e-wallets and online payments initially. The market is projected to be massive
but to lure users we expect GoTo to keep the take rate at low levels and offer
strong promotions which shave the gross revenues. Nonetheless, GoTo’s net
revenues are expected to grow by an impressive 27% cagr 2021-25. The GoTo
merger effects should support Gopay growth with Tokopedia transactions for
virtual goods such as mobile phone credits, bill payments et al. incl.
BuyNowPayLater options.

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 Exhibit 19. GoTo fintech gross revenues, take rate, net revenues

Rp trillion
8 7,5
1,5%
1,2% 1,3%
7 1,0% 1,0%
0,9% 5,7 cagr
6 0,6% 0,6% 2021-
5 25: 27%
4
3
2 1,1 0,9 1,2 1,0 1,1 1,2
0,7 0,7 0,7 0,9
1
0
2018 2019 2020 FY21e FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25
Gross revenue Fintech Net revenue Fintech Take rate Fintech
Source: GoTo, Redseer, BRIDS

User behavior in 2021-25

We are in line with GTV market growth expectations of Redseer due to combined
effects of low e-commerce penetration and the potential for geographic and
demographic expansion, services innovation, fintech opportunities, e-groceries
and cloud kitchen sectoral proliferations exhibiting 30% average cagr in 2021-25
in on-demand, e-commerce and fintech. On-demand market penetration is ~5%
and Gojek is the leader. Ecommerce penetration is 6% and Tokopedia is the
leader, e-wallet penetration is 2.9% and gotofinancial is the leader.
The current timing offers the best opportunity for investments in digital
adoption for a tech company to be the leader in the future (new consumers from
Covid-19, increased buying and paying frequency, lifestyle changes).

Those trends will reflect positively on the monthly frequency of buying in the
next years and on the average value/expenditure per order. We remain
conservative as to the size of the customer base, as we see an overlap incurring
among the platforms and thus we apply small increases in the 2021-25 period.

Exhibit 20. LTM annual transaction users & average orders per month
Users mn (x)
80 4,5 5,0
4,1 4,5
70 3,8
3,4 4,0
60 3,1 3,1 3,5
50 2,7 2,7
3,0
40 2,5
30 2,0
1,5
20
1,0
10 0,5
0 0,0
2018 2019 2020 FY21e FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25
LTM annual transaction users Orders per user per month

Source: GoTo, BRIDS

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 Exhibit 21. Total annual orders & average value per order

orders mn (x)
4.000 348k 400k
3.500 315k 350k
281k
3.000 244k 300k
2.500 219k 250k
179k
2.000 200k
131k
1.500 114k 150k
1.000 100k
500 50k
0 0k
2018 2019 2020 FY21e FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25
Orders Value per order

Source: GoTo, BRIDS

GoTo profitability overview

We see that competitors in on-demand services and e-commerce are well

funded currently. Given those high growth rates, we conservatively reduce the
promotional expenses onto GoTo’s gross revenues at a low rate of approx. 42%.

Exhibit 22. Promotional expenses as a % of GoTo’s gross revenues

Rp trillion

2018 2019 2020 FY21e FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25

0
-2,9 -6,4 -5,1
-7,4
-5 -10,9 -21,6
59% 61%
-10 50% 50%
43% 42%
-15
-20
-25

Promotions to customers Promotions as % of Gross revenue

Source: GoTo, BRIDS

During the IPO public expose, GoTo asserted that with the merger Goto
marketing can become more effective. GoTo is essentially in a position to
promote gopay, Tokopedia and delivery in one integrated marketing effort. We
therefore foresee a reduction in the rate of sales & marketing costs as a
percentage of GoTo’s total gross revenues going forward.

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 Exhibit 23. Sales & marketing expense as a % of GoTo’s gross revenues
Rp trillion

2018 2019 2020 FY21e FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25

0
-2
-4
-6
-8 -20%
-27% -32%
-10 -42%
-12
-14
-146%
-16 -168%

Sales & marketing expenses % of gross revenue bf adj.

Source: GoTo, BRIDS

Visibility for positive EBIT in 2025.

GoTo recently merged/acquired Tokopedia in May 2021 which itself is a major
market event, creating an unparallel local behemoth bringing additional
revenues for the e-commerce, delivery business, and its fintech business with
gradually improving take rates.
The merger should bring a number of cost efficiencies in the last mile logistics,
data analytics through a bigger pool of data, better customer loyalty through
seamless service among GoTo platforms, helping to keep overall costs under
control.
We thus expect on-demand services to turn EBIT positive around 2024. We also
expect e-commerce to gradually bring down costs as a percentage of gross
revenues, although e-commerce EBIT will remain negative in the examined
2021-25 period.
We also see a reduction path for EBIT losses in the fintech biz till 2025. The
combined effect will be positive EBIT and EBITDA in 2025.

Exhibit 24. GoTo EBIT profits (losses) per business

Rp trillion

2018 2019 2020 FY21e FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25

10
4,0
5
0
-1,0 -0,1
-5 -2,4 -2,3 -2,6 -1,7
-3,2
-4,5-5,1
-6,1-5,9
-10 -7,9
-10,8
-15
-20 -16,9

On-demand EBIT E-commerce EBIT Fintech EBIT

Source: GoTo, BRIDS

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 Exhibit 25. GoTo net losses & profits in 2025

Rp trillion

2018 2019 2020 FY21e FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25

5 1,4
0
-5
-10
-15 -11,2 -11,6
-12,6
-14,2
-20
-25 -22,8

Source: GoTo, BRIDS

GoTo steps for value creation in the longer term.

GoTo’s long term shareholders include Alibaba, Alphabet, Tencent and

Microsoft. This ensures GoTo will always be at the forefront of tech
developments and new business initiatives staying relevant and ensuring
business continuity. This includes the adoption of blockchain tech, positioning in
the metaverse space and the use of digital currencies. The GoTo platform is
highly generic and extensive and is able to expand into new income streams thus
accelerating the path to profitability.

GoTo has the room to expand regionally. Gojek has ventured into markets such
as Singapore, Vietnam and India. Tokopedia has kept focus solely on Indonesia,
and with the GoTo merger can get an easier entry into Gojek’s foreign markets
using Gojek’s already built infrastructure. Moreover, GoTo sources talent from
Singapore, India, Vietnam, and Indonesia for human capital to remain
competitive and resourceful.

GoTo has also prepared its next step which is to list the company in the US and
potentially raise more funding. To that end, it is developing its ESG by preparing
to invest in the EV ecosystem in Indonesia and committing to zero emissions and
zero waste targets.

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 GoTo valuation overview

We employ a P/GMV multiple to evaluate GoTo, as the effort of the merged

company is focused on generating GTV and maintaining a solid customer base.
We expect the customer base to remain loyal with large promotions and
marketing expenses done by the Company, to increase buying frequency and
increase also expenditure per order. Loyalty will be strengthened further as
adjacent businesses such as fintech services and entertainment are being
developed.
We evaluate the 3 business pillars separately. Using as a reference the multiple
valuations of peers from abroad we assign a P/GMV multiple of 0.80x for the on-
demand business and e-commerce for the 2021-25 GMV, and 0.30x for the
fintech GTV. We initiate coverage on GoTo with a TP of IDR400.

Exhibit 26. Multiples valuation benchmarking for technology companies

Market P/GMV EV/Revenue EV/EBITDA ---- PE ---- ---- PB ----
Company Country Cap 2022 2023 2022 2023 2022 2023 2022 2023 2022 2023
(US$m) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x)
E-COMMERCE
Shopify Canada 80,790 6.19 5.16 12.3 9.3 156.2 99.5 226.5 145.8 7.2 7.0
JD.com US 89,018 0.15 0.13 0.4 0.3 19.2 12.3 28.3 19.2 2.6 2.3
Mercadolibre Vietnam 59,149 1.65 1.37 6.2 4.6 67.3 41.6 157.8 86.6 32.2 24.6
Americanas SA Taiwan 5,703 0.44 0.36 1.0 0.9 7.8 6.7 92.3 31.4 1.7 1.6
PINDUODUO IN-ADR US 53,102 0.13 0.11 2.3 1.8 17.3 10.6 20.0 12.8 5.0 3.9
ETSY INC US 15,365 0.93 0.78 6.1 5.0 21.3 17.3 25.3 19.6 13.4 8.4
Allegro.EU sa Poland 6,938 0.56 0.47 4.3 3.3 14.6 12.7 25.5 22.2 2.7 2.4
OnlineEbay Inc
Marketplace US 31,950 0.37 0.30 3.2 3.0 8.9 8.5 13.7 13.1 3.9 3.7
OnlineVIPSHOP HOLD-ADR
Marketplace China 5,697 0.19 0.16 0.2 0.2 2.7 2.4 6.1 5.5 0.9 0.8
Dada
Internet Nexus
Media LTD-ADR
& services China 2,043 0.23 0.19 1.1 0.8 (10.4) 18.7 (12.5) 18.2 2.3 2.1
Farfetch
Specialty LTD
Online Class A
Retailers UK 5,701 0.81 0.67 1.8 1.5 161.2 41.3 (11.4) (13.8) (24.9) (12.0)
OnlineBukalapak.com
Marketplace Indonesia 2,494 0.21 0.17 4.1 2.7 (9.0) (14.6) (33.7) (62.1) 1.7 1.7
Simple average 1.0 0.8 3.6 2.8 38.1 21.4 44.8 24.9 4.0 3.9
Median 0.4 0.3 2.7 2.2 16.0 12.5 22.6 18.7 2.6 2.4

FINTECH
Paypal
Internet Media & Services US 131,692 0.09 0.07 4.5 3.7 17.2 14.0 24.0 19.4 5.2 4.2
Data &Kakaopay Corp
Transaction Processors S. Korea 14,395 0.14 0.11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 378.6 142.9 14.3 13.4
Data &Pagseguro Digital
Transaction Ltd - CL A
Processors Brazil 6,256 0.05 0.04 2.0 1.6 7.0 5.0 17.7 12.3 2.4 2.0
Data &One 97n Communications
Transaction Processors Ltd India 5,262 0.04 0.03 7.5 5.0 (16.6) (14.8) (18.1) (17.7) 3.2 3.8
Data &Adyen NV
Transaction Processors Netherlands 57,731 0.07 0.06 34.7 22.4 54.6 40.0 79.6 58.0 21.0 15.3
Data &StoneCo Ltd Processors
Transaction Brazil 3,475 0.05 0.05 2.2 1.8 5.0 4.0 32.4 14.9 1.2 1.1
Data &Block Inc
Transaction Processors US 73,047 0.36 0.30 3.8 3.1 92.7 54.9 101.6 63.4 18.0 5.7
Data &Visa Inc
Transaction Processors US 467,858 0.03 0.03 16.6 14.6 23.7 20.8 30.8 26.7 12.2 10.9
Data &Mastercard
TransactionInc
Processors US 341,677 0.04 0.03 15.7 13.4 26.2 21.7 34.2 28.1 40.0 28.2
Simple average 0.10 0.08 10.9 8.2 26.2 18.2 75.6 38.7 13.0 9.4
Median 0.05 0.05 6.0 4.4 20.4 17.4 32.4 26.7 12.2 5.7

RIDE HAILING LOGISTICS / FOOD DELIVERY

LYFT
Internet Inc -A
Media & Services US 12,064 0.36 0.30 2.5 2.0 30.2 15.0 54.1 21.4 7.9 6.0
Just
Internet Eat Takeaway.com
Media & Services NV Netherlands 7,560 0.21 0.17 1.3 1.1 (35.0) 179.1 (10.2) (18.0) 0.5 0.5
Doordash
Internet Media & Services US 38,642 0.76 0.64 5.8 4.7 111.7 51.4 652.4 99.3 8.0 7.6
Delivery Hero Germany 11,309 0.23 0.19 5.7 4.2 N/A N/A (8.1) (13.5) 5.7 9.3
Didi Chuxing Inc China 12,444 0.22 0.18 1.0 0.8 (18.9) (33.6) (4.9) (7.0) N/A N/A
UBER US 63,076 0.59 0.49 2.6 2.1 53.8 22.4 (82.7) 67.8 4.4 4.0
Ocado Group Plc UK 11,991 0.51 0.43 3.3 2.8 161.4 48.0 (31.0) (38.8) 6.6 8.0
MEITUAN-B Dianping China 123,411 0.97 0.81 3.2 2.4 (280.4) 40.3 (93.6) 78.7 6.8 6.3
GRAB Philipine 13,019 0.61 0.51 9.6 5.6 N/A N/A (8.5) (10.2) 2.2 2.7
Simple average 0.5 0.4 3.9 2.9 3.3 46.1 52.0 20.0 5.3 5.6
Median 0.5 0.4 3.2 2.4 30.2 40.3 (8.5) (7.0) 6.2 6.2

Exhibit 27. GoTo P/GMV multiple based valuation

2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
IDR mn - - - - - -

Applied P/GTV mobility 0.8x 30,372,879 36,592,998 51,028,272 68,634,317 88,596,362 109,937,319
Applied P/GTV ecommerce 0.8x 119,527,065 177,276,655 239,487,064 303,631,588 367,806,407 433,174,214
Applied P/GTV Fintech 0.3x 33,877,782 57,311,013 62,924,964 82,750,040 108,969,612 143,461,206
TP (IDR): 156 230 299 386 479 582

Overall GoTo GTV 330,176,359 458,373,777 572,894,050 741,165,846 933,735,500 1,157,093,436

Source: GoTo, BRIDS

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 Exhibit 28. Income Statement
Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 2019A 2020A 2021F 2022F 2023F
Revenue 2,304 3,328 7,366 11,096 16,035
COGS (2,781) (2,439) (3,288) (3,500) (4,148)
Gross profit (477) 889 4,078 7,596 11,887
EBITDA (20,062) (8,920) (12,408) (10,398) (7,741)
Oper. profit (21,024) (10,167) (14,260) (12,497) (9,815)
Interest income 247 212 226 226 226
Interest expense (112) (186) (192) (192) (192)
Forex Gain/(Loss) (153) (2,139) 58 58 58
Income From Assoc. Co’s (314) (421) 115 (97) (97)
Other Income (Expenses) (2,804) (4,087) 588 0 0
Pre-tax profit (24,160) (16,789) (13,465) (12,502) (9,819)
Income tax 78 53 53 53 53
Minority interest 1,320 2,527 674 674 674
Net profit (22,762) (14,209) (12,737) (11,774) (9,092)
Core Net Profit (19,805) (7,982) (13,382) (11,832) (9,149)

Exhibit 29. Balance Sheet

Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 2019A 2020A 2021F 2022F 2023F
Cash & cash equivalent 6,104 15,319 20,247 9,589 1,019
Receivables 2,371 833 1,001 1,322 1,681
Inventory 72 42 57 61 72
Other Curr. Asset 757 3,331 3,510 3,531 3,566
Fixed assets - Net 675 827 1,333 1,333 1,333
Other non-curr.asset 11,414 9,756 118,193 117,838 117,741
Total asset 21,393 30,109 144,341 133,674 125,412

ST Debt 1,006 854 1,571 0 0

Payables 2,145 1,970 5,600 5,712 5,825
Other Curr. Liabilities 1,950 2,940 5,816 5,182 5,224
Long Term Debt 889 3,233 1,545 650 650
Other LT. Liabilities 540 312 3,158 3,158 3,158
Total Liabilities 6,529 9,309 17,690 14,702 14,857
Shareholder'sFunds 17,017 20,116 125,293 116,940 107,848
Minority interests (2,154) 683 1,358 2,032 2,706
Total Equity & Liabilities 21,393 30,109 144,341 133,674 125,412

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 Exhibit 30. Cash Flow
Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 2019A 2020A 2021F 2022F 2023F
Net income (22,762) (14,209) (12,737) (11,774) (9,092)
Depreciation and Amort. 962 1,247 1,853 2,100 2,074
Change in Working Capital (770) 1,312 4,947 (868) (250)
OtherOper. Cash Flow (1,319,950) (2,528,764) (672,934) (674,383) (674,383)
Operating Cash Flow (1,342,519) (2,540,414) (678,872) (684,926) (681,651)

Capex (1,185) (1,399) (2,359) (2,100) (2,074)

Others Inv. Cash Flow 1,778 3,581 (106,707) 323 323
Investing Cash Flow 593 2,182 (109,066) (1,776) (1,751)

Net change in debt 1,106 843 120 (2,208) 0

New Capital 22,625 2,245 118,515 15,785 0
Dividend payment 0 0 0 0 0
Other Fin. Cash Flow (211) 20,240 556 (11,206) 1,157
Financing Cash Flow 23,520 23,328 119,191 2,370 1,157

Net Change in Cash (1,318,406) (2,514,904) (668,747) (684,332) (682,245)

Cash - begin of the year 5,806 6,104 15,319 20,247 9,589
Cash - end of the year 6,104 15,319 20,247 9,589 1,019

Exhibit 31. Key Ratios

Year to 31 Dec 2019A 2020A 2021F 2022F 2023F
Growth (%)
Sales 60.4 44.4 121.3 50.6 44.5
EBITDA 77.3 (55.5) 39.1 (16.2) (25.6)
Operating profit 76.1 (51.6) 40.3 (12.4) (21.5)
Net profit 102.5 (37.6) (10.4) (7.6) (22.8)
Profitability (%)
Gross margin (20.7) 26.7 55.4 68.5 74.1
EBITDA margin (870.8) (268.0) (168.4) (93.7) (48.3)
Operating margin (912.5) (305.5) (193.6) (112.6) (61.2)
Net margin (988.0) (427.0) (172.9) (106.1) (56.7)
ROAA (108.5) (55.2) (14.6) (8.5) (7.0)
ROAE (131.9) (76.5) (17.5) (9.7) (8.1)
Leverage
Net Gearing (x) (0.3) (0.5) (0.1) (0.1) 0.0
Interest Coverage (x) (187.9) (54.6) (74.4) (65.2) (51.2)

Source : GoTo, Danareksa Estimates

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