Uganda: Population Factors &

National Development

1
J. Owen-Rae / USAID
What is the importance of
population factors to the ability of
Uganda to achieve its national
vision in coming decades?

2
Population growth

40.0

35.0 34.1
Millions of people

30.0

25.0 24.2

20.0
16.7
15.0 12.6
9.5
10.0
6.5
5.0
5.0

0.0
1948 1959 1969 1980 1991 2002 2012

3
 Fertility rate
Uganda’s fertility rate is
6.2 children per woman

© 2008 Dave Blume

Source: Uganda Demographic and Health Survey 2011 4

Comparative fertility rates

7
6.2
5.9 5.7
6 5.4
5 4.6 4.6

0
Uganda Zambia Rwanda Malawi Tanzania Kenya
(2011) (2011) (2010) (2010) (2010) (2009)

5
Uganda has a very young population . . .

80 +
75-79
70-74 Female Male
65-69
60-64
Age in years

55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14 About half the
5-9 population is
0-4 under the age of
25
-25%

20
-20%

15
-15%

10
-10%

5 -5%

0 0%

5 5%

10 15
10% 15%

20
20%

2515
25%

Percent of the population

6
Fertility rate assumptions . . .

High fertility Declining fertility

7 6.3
Number of births per woman

6.0
6.7
6

5
4.4
4

2 2.2

0
2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037

7
Uganda’s population will grow rapidly with
continued high fertility . . .

100
88.8
High fertility

80
Population (millions)

60 50.9

40
29.0
20

0
2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037

8
However, the population will grow more slowly
if fertility declines in coming decades . . .

100
88.8
High fertility Declining fertility

80
Population (millions)

60 50.9 62.4

46.5
40

31.1
20

0
2010 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037

9
Two Major Messages . . .

1) Slower population growth

creates the potential to
increase the pace of
aggregate economic growth

2) Rapid fertility decline at the

country level helps create a
path out of poverty for many
Photo credit: K. Burns / USAID.
families

Source: Population Matters: Demographic Change, Economic Growth, and Poverty in the Developing World and Population
Dynamics and Economic Development: Filling the Research Gaps. 10
Africa looks to learn from
the East Asian countries
the best ways of achieving
fast economic growth.

11
The Asian Tigers achieved
unexpectedly rapid development

12
 Thailand emerged as a middle-income
country in a single generation . . .

1,600 1,462
(constant 2000 US$)

1,400
GDP Per Capita

1,200
1,000 956
796
800
602
600 516
384
400 317
200
0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990

Source: The World Bank. World Development Indicators, February 3, 2008. 13

 Thai fertility moved from high
to low levels . . .

8
7 6.4
6.1
Births per woman

6 5.4
5 4.4
4 3.3
3 2.6
2.2
2
1
0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990

Source: The World Bank. World Development Indicators, February 3, 2008. 14

 Asian Tigers
Success Story

Thailand, An Asian Tiger

GDP Per Capita (US$2000)

Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

1600 1462 8
6.4
1200 6

800 4
2.2
400 317 2

0 0
1960 1970 1980 1990

Source: The World Bank. World Development Indicators, February 3, 2008. 15

Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian
economic “miracle” . . .
 Greater emphasis on the quality of the
population rather than sheer numbers
 More and better educational opportunities
 More investment in modern agriculture
 Higher levels of savings and investment with
lower dependency ratios

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Uganda aspires to become a strong
middle-income economy in Africa . . .

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 Population affects social and
economic development in Uganda

K. Burns / USAID © 2006 AMREF, Courtesy of Photoshare © 2005 Laura Darby

Education Health Agriculture

© 2004 Louris Yamaguchi © 2008 Maisha Elonai © 2007 David Sasaki

Environment Economy Urbanisation

Education
Number of primary students,
2007-2037
20
High fertility Declining fertility
18.4
Primary students (millions)

15

10.2
10
7.5

0
2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037

20
Number of primary teachers required,
2007-2037
500
High fertility Declining fertility
459.8
Primary teachers (thousands)

400

300 253.9

200
152.0

100

0
2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037

21
Annual education expenditures,
2007-2037
70

60
High fertility 57
50
USH (billions)

40
Cumulative savings
32.7 Ush230 billion 31.6
37
30 23.5 Declining fertility

20

10

0
2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037

22
 Health

© 2008
23
Number of nurses required,
2007-2037
100,000
High fertility Declining fertility 88,800

80,000
Number of nurses

62,400
60,000

40,000
21,400
19,500
20,000
7,700

0
2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037

24
Number of health centres required,
2007-2037
10,000 9,320
High fertility Declining fertility
Number of Health Centres

8,000
6,550

6,000 5,340
4,880

4,000 3,045

2,000

0
2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037

25
Annual health expenditures,
2007-2037
3.0

2.49
2.5 High fertility
Cumulative
2.0 savings
US$ (billions)

$6.4 billion 1.75

1.42
1.5
Declining fertility
1.0 1.30

0.5 .24

0.0
2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037

26
 Agriculture & Environment

© 2006 Rob & Ale Youngrobv

Rapid population growth works
against agriculture modernisation . .
.
In many parts of the country,
rapid population growth in the
rural areas has led to
deforestation
http://www.flickr.com/photos/plant- soil erosion
trees/3595014598/sizes/m/

land degradation
smallholding fragmentation

Source: Trees For The Future

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 Minimum food requirements*,
2007-2037
70
65.1
High fertility Declining fertility

60

50 45.7
(in million tonnes)
Food requirement

40 37.3
34.1

30
21.3
20

10

0
2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037

*Assumes production per capita stays at 2007 levels.

Source: 2009 Statistical Abstract. 29
Environmental degradation has reached
alarming proportions in parts of Uganda

The country’s forests

are under tremendous
pressure, with wood
harvesting for fuel and
timber and the
clearance of
agriculture and human
settlement being some
USAID of the primary causes.

30 30
 Wood fuel consumption, 2007-2037
45
High fertility Declining fertility 39.5
40

35
Wood fuel consumption
(in million tonnes)

30 27.5 27.8
25.1
25
18.9
20

15

10

0
2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037

Source:PEAP (2004/5-2007/8), p. 77. 31

Kibaale
 1990:
114,103 hectares

=1,000 hectares of forest coverage

 2005:
58,260 hectares

=1,000 hectares of forest coverage

 2020:
2,433 hectares

=1,000 hectares of forest coverage

 Economy

K. Burns / USAID © 2006 Walter Wafula/ Daily Monitor, Courtesy of Photoshare

K. Burns / USAID

© 2005 Leila Darabi, Courtesy of Photoshare

K. Burns / USAID K. Burns / USAID
Annual New Job Requirements,
2007-2037

2,000
1,521
New Jobs (thousands)

High
1,500

1,000 862

854
476 812
500 Low

0
2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037

37 37
Urbanisation

38
Urban population, 2007-2037
25 21.9
Urban population (millions)

20
High

15 15.4

8.5
10

3.7 7.8 Low

5

0
2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037

39 39
Rapid growth puts increasing
pressure on urban infrastructure.

Credit: © 2005 Richard Niyonzima, Courtesy of Photoshare

Caption: A river of refuse and waste passes through a congested slum in
Namuwongo, Kampala City, Uganda. Ninety percent of the Kampala population lives
in slums like this one, risking contracting diseases like dysentery and cholera.
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To effectively address population
concerns, we need….
 Sustained commitment and support from
leaders at national and district levels
 Improved quality and access to affordable
services
 Increased private sector/NGO participation
 Contraceptive security
 Improved district management
 Expanded IEC
 Sustained donor support 41
 Conclusion
 Fertility reduction and a lower rate of population
growth are critical to Uganda’s ability to achieve
its national vision of transforming society from a
peasant to a modern and prosperous country.

 Uganda is at this point in its demographic

transition when the biggest proportion of its
population is comprised of young people that are
about to join the working force.

 Policy makers must capitalize on the age

structure to transform the national economy.
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