DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION THEORY

According to E.G.Dolan, “Demographic transition refers to a population cycle that begins with a fall in
the death rate continues with a phase of rapid population growth and concludes with a decline in birth
rate”.

Demographic transition theory was put forward by W.S. Thompson and Frank W.Nortestein.

These scholars based their statements and arguments on the trends in fertility and mortality, being
experienced in Europe, North America and Australia.

Thompson and Nortestein divided the process of transition into three stages whereas Sax has divided this
transition period of population into four stages.

STAGE I- HIGH AND FLUCTUATING HIGH BIRTH AND DEATH RATES, AND SLOW
POPULATION GROWTH.

(pre- modern- High birth, High Death rates)

In the first stage two rates are approximately equal. This stage mainly occurs in agrarian societies with
low or moderate population densities, low productivity level, High infant mortality, religious orthodoxy,
lack of education and poor health care.

In these societies large-sized families are considered as an asset.

Life expectancy was low, the development of agricultural sector is at its infancy stage, masses are
illiterate, lack of proper technology and urban development is limited.

The first stage has been called as the pre-industrial and pre-modern stage.

STAGE II-THE SECOND STAGE OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IS CHARACTERIZED

BY HIGH BIRTH, DECLINING DEATH RATES. THIS STAGE WAS EXPERIENCED IN
URBANIZING AND INDUSTRIALIZING ERA.

Improvements can be seen in health and sanitation conditions result in sharp declines in moratlity rates,
the fertlity maintains a high level, at least in the early second stage. The life expectancy starts improving.

The processes of industrialization, urbanization, and modernization become prominent.

The large families were no longer was an asset.

Most of the less developed countries of the world are passing through this stage of demographic
transition because of widespread of modern medicines and sanitation measures have drastically reduced
their mortality rates whereas their fertility rates were still high and hence a tremendous growth was
observed in population.

The countries like India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Iran, Yemen, Kenya and Indonesia belong to the
late second stage.

STAGE III- DECLINING BIRTH RATE AND LOW DEATH RATES. IT IS BEEN OBSERVED
THAT THERE IS A SLOWDOWN IN THE GROWTH RATE AS THE DEATH RATE
STABILIZED AT A LOW LEVEL AND THE BIRTH RATE DECLINES WITH EASY ACCESS
TO FAMILY PLANNING METHODS.

This decline is associated with the growth of an educated urban/ industrial society with low infant
mortality, increased standard of living and changing status of women.

China has entered the third stage of demographic transition owing to the one child policy adopted by the
government in the eighties.

STAGE IV- IN THE LAST STAGE BOTH BIRTH RATE AND DEATH RATE IS LOW. THE
POPULATION IS EITHER STABLE OR GROWS SLOWLY.

The family size are common, the literacy and education levels are high, and the degree of labour
specialization is also very high.

Anglo-America, West European countries, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Japan are
supposed to have reached this stage of demographic transition.
(i) What is meant by a rural settlement?

(a) (i) A settlement in the countryside/small settlement/a settlement surrounded by fields/a settlement
consisting of only a few houses.

(ii) Use evidence from Fig. 3 only, to identify two similarities between the settlements of Tas-Salih and
Bingemina.

A. are linear/have developed along a road; are aligned from north–south; are small/about 400 metres
long/around 13–16 buildings/only a few buildings in them; both have large and small buildings; both
surrounded by fields etc.

(iii) Describe the main features of an area of dispersed rural settlement such as L-Andrijiet.

A. separated by countryside/farmland/woodland/by fields; buildings are scattered/separated from

each/in small groups/far apart/spread out; no focus/central part of settlement/no roads meet in the
middle; no/few services available; low population density/sparsely populated etc.

(iv) Suggest reasons for the growth of a nucleated settlement such as Ta’ Mrejnu.

A. roads from all directions meet/nodal point/crossroads; flat land; no restrictions to development in
any direction; presence of a water source/spring/well/lake; mine/natural resource/quarry; bridging
point; defensive site etc.