Group details:

Group number: X

Name of group member

Data Set Given:

From Given dataset we have got ‘G’ as a data set or experimental learning.

Copy the data from excel

Seasonality Analysis for forecast values of all quarters of 2022:

Step 1) Defining time values for regression analysis (Table 1)

Year Quarter G t value

2018 1 2371 1
2018 2 3611 2
2018 3 3065 3
2018 4 5940 4
2019 1 1431 5
2019 2 1480 6
2019 3 4352 7
2019 4 4366 8
2020 1 4494 9
2020 2 4094 10
2020 3 3666 11
2020 4 1959 12
2021 1 3532 13
2021 2 1367 14
2021 3 4772 15
2021 4 6370 16

Step 2) Regression Graphical output for sales given (Table 2)

Time (t) Sales

1 2371
2 3611
3 3065
4 5940
5 1431
6 1480
7 4352
8 4366
9 4494
10 4094
11 3666
12 1959
13 3532
14 1367
15 4772
16 6370
Steps followed to get above graph: (Used Microsoft Excel for this):

1) Select data (Table 2), go to insert tab, select scatter plot

2) Click on ‘+’ on graph, select Trendline  Linear option
3) Click on ‘+’ on graph, select Trendline  More option
Check, Display equation and Display R squared value on chart
(Please find image 1)
4) We can see the below:
Y = 71.629x + 2945.5 --- trend line equation
R squared value = 0.0493

Where x – t value
 Image 1

Step 3)
Use Microsoft Excel function in trend line equation, calculate Forecasting
Value of respective quarters of each year by substituting t values of
respective quarter for x value

For 2018, quarter 1, put x =1 in trend line equation:

(For x value refer t values from table 1)

Y1= 71.629 (1) + 2945.5

Y1= 3017

Here Y1 = Forecasting value for Quarter 1 of year 2018

Similarly find for all the quarters of 2018 and upcoming years data given
Resultant Data:

Functions Used:
1) Forecasting Value =71.629*A4+2945.5
2) Round Off =ROUNDDOWN(B4,0)

t value Forecasting Value Round Off

1 3017.129 3017
2 3088.758 3088
3 3160.387 3160
4 3232.016 3232
5 3303.645 3303
6 3375.274 3375
7 3446.903 3446
8 3518.532 3518
9 3590.161 3590
10 3661.79 3661
11 3733.419 3733
12 3805.048 3805
13 3876.677 3876
14 3948.306 3948
15 4019.935 4019
16 4091.564 4091

Step 4)
Referred table 4.2 format from book as mentioned in the instructions and derived
below data for our data set

Functions used:
1) Actual/Forecast =C2/B2
2) Average of ratio for each quarter = =AVERAGE(D2,D3,D4,D5)

Step 5)
 Now we will find the forecasting value for 2022, with t values as 17, 18,19 and 20
as per the sequence of the respective years’ quarters
Use trend line equation Y= 71.629x + 2945.5
Where x = t value

Forecasting Round
Year. Q t value Value Off
2022.1 17 4163.193 4163
2022.2 18 4234.822 4234
2022.3 19 4306.451 4306
2022.4 20 4378.08 4378

Step 6)
Now let us find corrected value for the quarters of 2022
Ratio = Actual/Forecast
1) 2022 Q1 = avg of ratios Q1 * Forecast value of Q1
= 3520.168914
= 3520

2) 2022 Q2 = avg of ratios Q2 * Forecast value of Q2

= 3252.77605
= 3252

3) 2022 Q3 = avg of ratios Q3 * Forecast value of Q3

=4739.531657
=4739

4) 2022 Q4 = avg of ratios Q4 * Forecast value of Q4

= 5637.700383
= 5637
 Forecasting Actual (or Round
Year. Q t value Value Round Off corrected values) Off
2022.1 17 4163.193 4163 3520.168914 3520
2022.2 18 4234.822 4234 3252.776058 3252
2022.3 19 4306.451 4306 4739.531657 4739
2022.4 20 4378.08 4378 5637.700383 5637

Hence trend line equation for our data set is:

Y= 71.629x + 2945.5

Where,

Y= Forecast value of respective quarters of each year

X= t values of respective quarter