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Headlines
(Global Economy) Canada's GDP expanded at a 3.9% in the first quarter of 2011
(Economic Calendar)
(Technical Analysis) Nifty Support levels are at 5460-5400 and Resistance 5610-5710.
Global Economy
U.S household spending rose 0.4% after a revised 0.5% March Greece’s progress in meeting the terms of last year’s EURO 110 bn
gain. The number of Americans signing contracts to buy previously (USD 158 bn) bailout in coming days. Under the terms of the rescue
owned homes fell 12% last month. The report also showed incomes package, Greece was due to return to financial markets and sell
climbed 0.4% in April & savings rate held at 4.9%. The Institute for about EURO 30 bn of bonds next year. With its 10-year bonds yielding
Supply Management’s factory index fell to 53.5 last month, from 16.4%, more than twice that of the time of the bailout, the EU has
60.4 in April. Companies in the U.S. added 38,000 workers last month indicated Greece will need more aid to plug its financing gap.
according to ADP Employer Services & planned firings dropped German unemployment fell in May as export-driven growth and
4.3% to 37,135 last month from May 2010. Also the ISM’s production increased spending by businesses and consumers extended a jobs
index decreased to 54 from 63.8 in April. Canada’s GDP expanded boom. The number of people out of work dropped a seasonally
at a 3.9% annualized pace from January through March after a adjusted 8,000 to 2.97 mn & the jobless rate declined to 7%. Declining
previous 3.1% expansion. The central bank predicts growth will unemployment in Europe’s biggest economy underscores German
slow to a 2% pace in the April-June quarter, and exports are resilience in the face of a clampdown on budget deficits by euro-
threatened by a strong dollar and auto production curbed by area governments buffeted by the debt crisis and rising fuel prices
Japan’s earthquake and tsunami. that crimp household spending. Retail sales edged up in April after
European Union leaders will decide on additional aid for Greece by declining in March.
the end of June and have ruled out a “total restructuring” of the
nation’s debt. The IMF and the ECB are set to wrap up a review of
Indian Economy
India’s economy grew by just 7.8% in the Q4FY11 as against 9.4% in The output of six core infrastructure industries rose at its slowest
Q4FY10. However, it improved to 8.5% in FY11 from 8% in FY10. pace in last five month. The output of six infrastructure industries
During Q4FY11, growth in the manufacturing sector slowed down rose 5.2% in April 2011 against 7.4% expansion in March. The
to 5.5% from 15.2% in Q4FY10. In addition, the mining and quarrying moderation in growth is mostly a result of negative growth in
sector grew by only 1.7% in Q4FY11, as against 8.9% in Q4FY10. cement, -1.1%, and significantly slower growth in finished steel,
Furthermore, the trade, hotels, transport and communications down to 4.3% from 12.9% in April last year. In addition, petroleum
segment grew by 9.3% in Q4FY11, as against 13.7% expansion in refinery products and coal both performed better this April than in
Q4FY10. Farm output grew by 7.5% during Q4FY11 compared to a 2010. The former grew at 6.6% compared to 5.3% last year and the
meagre 1.1% in Q4FY10. latter at 2.9% compared to -2.9%.
Exports jumped 34.42% in April 2011 to USD 23.8 bn & Imports, to India’s food price index rose 8.06% for the week ended May 21,
rise at a lower pace at 14.13% to USD 32.8 bn. The trade deficit for slowing down from an annual rise of 8.55% a week ago. The fuel
April 2011 was estimated at USD 8.98 bn which was lower than the price index climbed 12.54% compared with a rise of 12.11% a week
deficit of USD 11.02 bn during April 2010. Oil imports during April, earlier. The primary articles price index was up 10.87%, compared
2011 were valued at USD 10.18 bn which was 7.7% higher than oil with an annual rise of 11.6% a week earlier. The weekly food inflation
imports of USD 9.45 bn in the corresponding period last year. Non- has slowed from the double-digit rise for much of 2010, but headline
oil imports during April, 2011 were estimated at USD 22.64 bn which inflation at 8.66% in April remains considerably above the central
was 17.3% higher than non-oil imports of USD 19.31 bn in the bank’s comfort level and will pressure rates higher.
previous year.
Headline Inflation by WPI (%) (Apr’11) INR Exchange Rate (As on June 3, 2011)
Annualized Rate Annualized Rate Change Change
Current 1 Week 1 Year
(current) (last month) Weekly annual
Headline Inflation USD 44.85 45.21 (0.79) 46.54 3.63
8.66 8.98
(WPI) GBP 73.29 74.31 (1.37) 67.78 (8.12)
Internals Euro 64.89 64.4 0.76 57.38 (13.08)
Yen 55.59 55.79 (0.35) 51.05 (8.89)
Primary Products 12.05 12.96
Debt Market Yields (%)
Fuel Power and
13.32 12.92 10 year Gilt 8.28
Lubricants
Manufactured 1 Year Gilt 8.16
6.18 6.21 Source: CCIL
Goods
Source: CCIL
(Million Barrels)
390
1600 50
110
380
1500 45
370
1400 40 100
Price (USD)
360
Silver ($/OZ)
Gold ($/OZ)
1300 35
Inventory
90 350
1200 30 340
1100 25 80
330
1000 20 320
70
900 15 310
60 300
800 10
Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Mar-11 May-11
Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Mar-11 May-11
Inventory Crude Oil
Silver Gold
USD / JPY
USD / AUD
0.0115
USD / GBP
1.35 0.95
1.6
1.3 0.011 0.9
1.55
1.25 0.85
0.0105
1.5 0.8
1.2
0.01
1.15 1.45 0.75
Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Mar-11 May-11
USD / JPY USD / AUD
USD / EUR USD / GBP
Economic Calendar
India US
Date Event Period Prior Date Event Period Prior
9-Jun Food Articles WPI YoY 28-May 8.06% 7-Jun IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism JUN 42.80
9-Jun Fuel Power Light WPI YoY 28-May 12.54% 8-Jun Consumer Credit APR $6.016B
9-Jun Primary Articles WPI YoY 28-May 10.87% 8-Jun MBA Mortgage Applications 3-Jun -4.00%
10-Jun Industrial Production YoY APR 7.30% 9-Jun Initial Jobless Claims 3-Jun 422K
9-Jun Trade Balance APR -$48.2B
9-Jun Wholesale Inventories APR 1.10%
10-Jun Import Price Index (MoM) MAY 2.20%
10-Jun Import Price Index (YoY) MAY 11.10%
Nikkei-225 9,492.20 -0.3% gain in employment is the weakest monthly job growth since September. The
Key Indices (Indian) job report gives gloomy picture of the US economy and bearish in the markets
% Change is likely to continue in short term. US Data to watch next week: Consumer Credti,
Indices Close
(week) Initial Jobless Claims, Trade Balance, Wholesale Inventories, Import Price
BSE SENSEX 18,376.50 0.6% Index.
BSE IT 6,003.70 0.9% weak auto sales data. DIIs were net sellers while FIIs were net buyers in cash
Weekly Gainers (BSE 100) market. Data to watch next week: Food Articles WPI YoY, Fuel Power Light WPI
YoY, Primary Articles WPI YoY, Industrial Production YoY.
RCom 93.4 9.9%
BSE 136.5 affected some stocks viz. Sun TV, Spicejet. Reliance disappointed investors as
no special investment plans were announced and the scrip saw selling on
NSE CASH 548.0
Friday. Food Inflation for the last week came in at 8.06% vs. 8.55%, which still
NSE F&O 3996.4
remains above comfort level. GDP figures of 7.8% also were below expectation,
Institutional Activity in INR Bn (Weekly)
the effects of which will be seen in coming months in markets. The next week is
Institutions Net Inflow likely to remain volatile as Industrial Production data will be keenly watched.
FII 24.4 Below 5500, Nifty is likely to see some more downsides.
DIIs -12.7
7,000,000 • India VIX for the week ended at 17.61, up 0.36 from previous week’s close
6,000,000 (17.25). In the week VIX touched low of 16.36 and high of 18.87.
OI
5,000,000
4,000,000
5200
5300
5400
5500
5600
5700
5800
5900
6000
5100
Strike
term.
Call Option
Change in OI
Put Option
4,000,000
1,000,000
5400
5800
5900
5100
5200
5300
5500
5600
5700
6000
(1,000,000)
Auto
RENUKA 9.36% 9.06% -42.70% 2.66% -1.75%
Metal&Mining
-50%
0%
50%
100%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
% Change in OI
BEML -7.20% -7.61% 15.10% 22.27% 51.22%
DCHL -5.47% -7.34% -22.04% -71.92% -1.14%
Nifty PC Ratio
1.5 TATAMOTORS -5.97% -5.73% -47.21% -50.32% 15.43%
1.4 GMRINFRA -4.39% -5.07% -29.27% 86.43% 15.43%
1.3
Top 10 Volume Gainers
1.2
SCRIPS % Change in F&O % Change Volumes
PCR
1.1
1 Price Open Interest (Delivery Based)
0.9 SUNTV -26.93% 343.64% 7192.87%
0.8 BOSCHLTD 4.16% 85.00% 692.36%
0.7 MRPL 6.98% 10.26% 541.65%
1-J un
2-J un
3-J un
31-May
30-May
Technical Analysis
(Source: Iris)
Conclusion
Last week Nifty shut on a marginal positive note @ 5517 and up by 41 points from the previous week's close. Technically Nifty on weekly
chart has formed doji candle stick pattern, which shows sideways to positive sentiment in coming sessions. Nifty spot on weekly has
opened at 5494 and made a low of 5458 and made a high of 5605 then finally closed positive at 5517. Stochastics and the RSI are slightly
oversold signaling that buying pressure at support levels are possible short-term. The close below the 65 day moving average (5606)
indicates the short term trend could be turning sideways. Stochastics trending lower at midrange will tend to reinforce a move higher
especially if support levels are taken out. The market setup is somewhat sideways trend with trading range between 5450-5600. The next
area of resistance is around 5605-5710. So Nifty appears to be sideways trading on weekly chart having supports at 5450-5370 levels. For
short term trading long positions, stop loss of 5350 is advisable.
Weekly Nifty has resistance at 5605-5710 and supports at 5450-5375.
Weekly Bank Nifty has resistance at 10960-11160 and supports at 10580-10445.
Weekly Recommendations
Cement
• ACC shipments in May rose 13.7% from a year earlier to 1.99MnT. Production in May rose to 2.01MnT from 1.82MnT a year ago. Double
digit growth is positive for the largest cement producer.
Power
• Areva T&D India, has demerged its distribution business into a new company, Smartgrid Automation Distribution and Switchgear
Limited. Areva T&D India Ltd’s promoters, Alstom Sextant 5 SAS, has made an open offer to the public shareholders of the company,
stating that the transmission activities (high voltage systems, equipment, power electronics and automation) will be separated from
the distribution activities (medium voltage systems, equipment and related automation).
Fertiliser
• Coromandel would pick up 73% in Sabero for Rs 450 crore. The company, part of the $3.8 billion Murugappa Group, will purchase a
42.21% stake from Sabero’s promoters for Rs 284 crore and, additionally, will make an open offer for a 31% stake. The deal would be
funded through internal accruals - its cash reserves last year stood at Rs 1,500 crore.
• Punj Lloyd has bagged contract of INR 8900Mn from a company based in Abu Dhabi for onshore oil operations. Positive, as it improves
the revenue visibility of the company.
• BHEL has secured an order worth ~INR 620Mn for setting up solar power project for Karnataka Power Corporation Limited in
Karnataka. Neutral, given the quantum of contract value is small. However, this would be positive as company diversifies. With this
order, the company is presently executing SPV-based power projects of various capacities totalling 16MW.
Auto
• Bajaj Auto's Total vehicle sales of the company in May 2011, stood at 3,58,849 showing a growth of 19.84 % YoY while, it has also
registered its best sales figures for May in the three-wheeler segment during the last month at 40,860 units, showing a jump of 36.41 %
YoY. Again the company has reported highest ever motorcycle sales for May at 3, 17,989 units in last month, registering a jump of 18
%. BAL recorded its highest ever exports for May at 1, 26,818 units registering a growth of 32.15 %.
30-May
Ø HSBC Mutual Fund has announced change in the fund management
-10 -5 0 5 10
responsibilities. Mr Dhimant Shah Vice President and Fund Manager, resigned
Debt Equity
from the services. Accordingly, HSBC India Opportunities Fund and HSBC Unique
Opportunities Fund will be managed by Mr. Jitendra Sriram and HSBC Midcap FII Trading Activity ( In Billions)
Equity Fund and HSBC Small Cap Fund will be managed by Mr. Dhiraj Sachdev. 3-Jun
HSBC Tax Saver Fund will be managed by Mr. Jitendra Sriram and Aditya Khemani
2-Jun
while Mr. Aditya Khemani and Mr. Jitendra Sriram will manage the equity portion
of HSBC MIP Savings and& Regular Plan and the fixed income portion will be
1-Jun
managed by Mr. Sanjay Shah and Mr. Ruchir Parekh. with effect from 31st May 31-May
2011.
30-May
-10 -5 0 5 10 15
Ø Mutual Funds (MFs) made investments worth Rs 726.40 crore and sold off Rs
Debt Equity
644.30 crore worth of equities on May 31, 2011, according to data released by the
Source: Accord Fintech
Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). Thus, MFs stood as net buyers of
Rs 82.10 crore in equities on that day. In the month of May, MFs have made total
investments of Rs 12205.80 crore and sold off Rs 11770.90 crore worth of equities.
Weekly Activity
Equity (INR in Bn) Debt (INR in Bn)
Date
Purchase Sales Net Purchase /Sales Purchase Sales Net Purchase /Sales
Mutual Fund Activity
2-Jun-11 4.64 6.07 -1.43 22.90 18.27 4.63
1-Jun-11 3.48 3.22 0.26 22.66 19.71 2.94
30-May-11 4.47 2.96 1.52 23.62 32.06 -8.44
FII Activity
3-Jun-11 17.91 16.40 1.51 6.96 1.54 5.41
2-Jun-11 24.67 17.78 6.90 3.50 6.16 -2.67
1-Jun-11 61.66 49.05 12.61 6.11 7.42 -1.31
31-May-11 24.40 23.22 1.19 12.34 6.57 5.77
30-May-11 27.04 24.50 2.54 8.88 17.79 -8.91
Source: Accord Fintech
Close Mr. Murthy by investing in widerange of Debt and Money Crisil Short-Term
Tata FMP-35-B(G) 31-May 6-Jun
ended Nagarajan Market instruments having maturity in line with Bond Fund Index
Close Mr. Rajeev portfolio comprising of debt instruments such as Crisil Liquid Fund
SBI DFS-180D-19(G) 3-Jun 6-Jun
ended Radhakrishnan Government Securities, PSU & Corporate Bonds Index
HDFC FMP-XVIII- Close Mr. Bharat Pareek, / / Money Market Instruments and Government Crisil Short-Term
2-Jun 6-Jun
92D-June 2011(1)-(G) ended Mr. Miten Lathia Securities maturing on or before the maturity Bond Fund Index
HDFC FMP-XVIII- Close Mr. Bharat Pareek / / Money Market Instruments and Government Crisil Short-Term
2-Jun 7-Jun
370D-June 2011(1)-(G) ended Mr. Miten Lathia Securities maturing on or before the maturity Bond Fund Index
Reliance FHF-XIX- Close Central and State Government securities and Crisil Short-Term
25-May 8-Jun Mr. Amit Tripathi
20(G) ended Other fixed income/ debt securities maturing on Bond Fund Index
or before the date of maturity of the scheme with
the objective of limiting interest rate volatility.
To generate returns through investments in debt
and money market instruments with a view to
Mr. Deepak
Close significantly reduce the interest rate risk. The Crisil Short-Term
Kotak FMP 49(G) 2-Jun 8-Jun Agrawal / Mr.
ended Scheme will invest in debt and money market Bond Fund Index
Abhishek Bisen
securities, maturing on or before maturity of the
scheme.
To build an income oriented portfolio and
Principal Pnb FMP Close generate returns through investment in Crisil Liquid Fund
3-Jun 9-Jun Mr. Shobit Gupta
91D-XXX(G) ended Debt/Money Market Instruments and Index
Government Securities.
To achieve growth of capital through
L&T FMP - III (June Close Mr. Bekxy investments made in a basket of debt/ fixed Crisil Short-Term
3-Jun 14-Jun
366D)-A(G) ended Kuriakose income securities maturing on or before the Bond Fund Index
maturity of the Scheme.
To protect capital by investing a portion of the
portfolio in good quality debt securities & money
market instruments and also to provide capital
Close Crisil MIP Blended
ICICI Pru CPO-I(G) 3-Jun 17-Jun Mr. Amit Tripathi appreciation by investing the balance in equity
ended Index
and equity related securities. The securities
would mature on or before the maturity of the
Plan under the scheme.
Source: Accord Fintech
Dividend Declaration
Scheme Name Category Record Date Gross Corporate Non-Corporate
Baroda Pioneer 90D-FMP-1(D) Debt 7-Jun-11 0.14 0.14 0.14
Birla SL FTP-CA-Reg(D) Debt 8-Jun-11 9.17 9.17 9.17
Birla SL ST FMP-11(D) Debt 8-Jun-11 0.52 0.52 0.52
ICICI Pru Inv II-Qtrly-D-Inst(D) Debt 8-Jun-11 0.16 0.16 0.16
ICICI Pru Inv II-Qtrly-D-Inst(D) Debt 7-Jun-11 0.13 0.13 0.13
ICICI Pru Qrtly Inv II-D-Inst(QD) Debt 8-Jun-11 0.16 0.16 0.16
ICICI Pru Qrtly Inv II-D-Inst(QD) Debt 7-Jun-11 0.13 0.13 0.13
ICICI Pru Qrtly Inv II-D-Ret(D) Debt 8-Jun-11 0.16 0.16 0.16
ICICI Pru Qrtly Inv II-D-Ret(D) Debt 7-Jun-11 0.13 0.13 0.13
IDFC Arbitrage Plus-Inst(D) Hybrid 8-Jun-11 0.20 0.20 0.20
IDFC Arbitrage Plus-Reg(D) Hybrid 8-Jun-11 0.20 0.20 0.20
IDFC Asset Alloc-Cons(D) Hybrid 8-Jun-11 0.20 0.20 0.20
Reliance Inv-Qrtly-III-Inst(D) Debt 6-Jun-11 2.11 2.11 2.11
Reliance Inv-Qrtly-III-Ret(D) Debt 6-Jun-11 2.07 2.07 2.07
Source: Accord Fintech
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