CHAPTER 23

Political Demography
Michael S. Teitelbaum

This chapter addresses the complex relationships between demographic and political
forces. The scope is both international and internal to states, and includes both direc-
tions of putative causation: how demographic change affects politics, and how political
forces affect demographic patterns.

CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORKS

Political demography addresses both the political determinants and the political conse-
quences of demographic change. It is a subject of rapidly increasing importance in both
academic and policy arenas, but one that lies somewhat uncomfortably at the bound-
aries of demography and political science. As such it has been underattended by both
demographers and political scientists. The best definition of political demography is
Weiner’s (1971):
Political demography is the study of the size, composition, and distribution of population in
relation to both government and politics. It is concerned with the political consequences of
population change, especially the effects of population change on the demands made upon
governments, on the performance of governments, on the distribution of political power within
states, and on the distribution of national power among states. It also considers the political
determinants of population change, especially the political causes of the movement of people,
the relationship of various population configurations to the structure and functions of govern-
ment, and public policies directed at affecting the size, composition, and distribution of popu-
lations. Finally, in the study of political demography it is not enough to know the facts and
figures of population—that is fertility, mortality, and migration rates; it is also necessary to
consider the knowledge and attitudes that people and their governments have toward popula-
tion issues (597).

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720 Michael S. Teitelbaum

Notwithstanding a convincing case made by Weiner that political demography

deserves serious attention, most political scientists have expressed rather little interest
in, and made few contributions to, studies of two of the three major demographic forces,
namely fertility and mortality. However, some have made quite significant contribu-
tions to the study of the third, migration, both within and across international bound-
aries, but particularly with regard to international migration. In part this is because of
the important security dimensions that can arise when large-scale international popu-
lation movements affect the cohesion of societies and generate social and political
conflict both within and between countries. Moreover, international migration is by
definition a function of the world system of sovereign states, is addressed by a variety of
international treaties and organizations, and is heavily affected by policies adopted by
national governments.
The important topics in political demography include, but are not limited to, the
following:

. The impacts of differing rates of national population growth on military man-

power
. The political and policy consequences of changes in population size, age struc-
ture, and density, including differentials among ethnic and religious communities
and their impacts on domestic social and political relations, central-local rela-
tions, regional income disparities, and political representation
. The political consequences of migration both within and across national borders
. Government policies designed to affect the size, composition, distribution, and
growth rate of a population

THEORETICAL MODELS

Theoretical writings in political demography have a remarkably long history and impres-
sive pedigree. Those who have addressed political demography (though not necessarily
calling it such) include many of the leading theorists of politics and society, including
those of ancient China, as well as Plato, Aristotle, and Ibn Khaldun (Teitelbaum 1988).
More recently, political theorists/practitioners such as Thomas Jefferson drew close
connections between population density and the nature of civic life and politics.
In the domain of economics, economic theorists from the 16th century onward
have described demographic patterns as critical elements of economic prosperity and
political stability. Mercantilist theorists of 16th- and 17th-century Europe advised the
monarchs of the day that they could increase the power and wealth of their realms by
increasing the fertility and constraining the emigration of their subjects.
Their intellectual opponents, the free-market physiocrats, argued instead that land,
not population, was the principal source of wealth. Utopian thinkers of the 18th century
rejected both mercantilist and physiocratic views, arguing that what really mattered was
not population size or land area, but equitable distribution of resources.
The classic economists who dominated late 18th- and early 19th-century economic
theory, including Adam Smith, David Ricardo, and Thomas Malthus, theorized that
agricultural returns to increasing labor and capital inputs would diminish and that free
markets would regulate population increase in an automatic manner. Malthus in parti-
cular focused on the negative impact he perceived of unrestrained population growth on