Adjusting Business

Strategies in Time of
Consumer Economic
Change
SDT 100 45
NATALIE WILLIAMS
Summary
With the changing of economic and environmental conditions in the United States resulting
from the COVID-19 pandemic, retailers wish to establish stability in their sales during these
periods. One of the largest retailers in the US is Wal Mart.
Data was obtained using GitHub data tables that provide historical data from 2010 to 2012 for
45 separate locations. Analysis utilizes the average weekly sales, store numbers, and average
unemployment rates over the period. This analysis is to determine any need to change business
strategy to offset changing unemployment rates in the US.
 Correlations and Similarities of Data
.
The initial use of regression provides that there is a correlation of date to average sales; however, the
combination chart below provides little correlation between Sales and unemployment rates.

REGRESSION ANALYSIS (DATE/SALES) REGRESSION ANALYSIS (UNEMPLOYMENT/SALES)

Date/Sales

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.926179814 The data appears very similar because the R Square value is high indicating a good
R Square 0.857809047 accuracy of prediction.
Adjusted R Square 0.843589952
Standard Error 4.024306727
Observations 12

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 977.0140453 977.0140453 60.3279625 1.52381E-05
Residual 10 161.9504463 16.19504463
Total 11 1138.964492

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept -195.9335294 32.71547497 -5.989016804 0.000134059 -268.8281502 -123.0389085 -268.8281502 -123.0389085
2.548 93.68912108 12.06229195 7.767107731 1.52381E-05 66.81265974 120.5655824 66.81265974 120.5655824
Collective Sales Trend by Store
.

Weekly Sales by stores displays a downward trend

in sales by store number.
Sales versus Unemployment Trend
.

However,… The trend in

the unemployment rate is
in opposition of the sales
trend.
Trend of Unemployment to Average
Weekly Sales – All Stores
When considering all stores as a
whole, sales trend changes do not
appear to be in correlation to the
unemployment rate averages
changes across a calendar year.
Trend of Unemployment to Average Weekly Sales – Top and Bottom Three
Stores based on Unemployment Averages
This is further reinforced as the unemployment
rates of the top 3 and bottom 3 stores display
similar sales trends by month.
Predictive Modeling
Returning to the predictive
model of regression analysis
used to determine similarity of
data, the visualized charts
earlier in this analysis reinforce
that there is not a strong
enough correlation between
sales and unemployment rate
changes to make any changes to
the overall corporate business
strategy, as the total store sales
trend remains upward across
the calendar year.
Conclusion
This analysis challenged the hypothesis that consumers are less likely to purchase goods in times of economic
changes, specifically the factor of unemployment. Data was collected to provide historical trending of sales
across 45 stores and unemployment rates for the same over a two year period.

While it would seem appropriate that unemployment, with its coinciding reduction of household income,
would reduce sales when at a higher rate, this analysis for Wal Mart specifically, indicates that consumer
buying is unchanged by unemployment overall. The analysis also reveals the closer correlation of spending to
calendar month, with peaks seen most predominately in summer months and at during the traditional
holiday shopping month of December.

No recommendation is made to change a corporate strategy solely based on changes in the unemployment
rates by store; however, the downward trend in sales from store 1 to store 45 would merit further analysis
into other factors that might be affecting the store sales.