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  • OMH10 - Monte Carlo 3

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    Vedant Sharma
    9 views52 pages
    The document provides information to analyze two high speed rail (HSR) plans (Plan A and Plan B) including discount rates, ticket prices, demand expectations over 3 years, capacity for long and short HSR, variable costs, capital expenditures, salvage values, and an uncertain demand factor of 50%. It also provides the results of the net present value (NPV) analysis for each plan, with Plan A yielding an NPV of 244.8 and Plan B yielding 156.5. Additional analysis includes charts showing the demand simulation, cumulative distribution functions and histograms for the NPV results of each plan.

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    Monte Carlo simulation

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    The document provides information to analyze two high speed rail (HSR) plans (Plan A and Plan B) including discount rates, ticket prices, demand expectations over 3 years, capacity for long and short HSR, variable costs, capital expenditures, salvage values, and an uncertain demand factor of 50%. It also provides the results of the net present value (NPV) analysis for each plan, with Plan A yielding an NPV of 244.8 and Plan B yielding 156.5. Additional analysis includes charts showing the demand simulation, cumulative distribution functions and histograms for the NPV results of each plan.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLS, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    Download as xls, pdf, or txt
    9 views52 pages

    OMH10 - Monte Carlo 3

    Uploaded by

    Vedant Sharma
    The document provides information to analyze two high speed rail (HSR) plans (Plan A and Plan B) including discount rates, ticket prices, demand expectations over 3 years, capacity for long and short HSR, variable costs, capital expenditures, salvage values, and an uncertain demand factor of 50%. It also provides the results of the net present value (NPV) analysis for each plan, with Plan A yielding an NPV of 244.8 and Plan B yielding 156.5. Additional analysis includes charts showing the demand simulation, cumulative distribution functions and histograms for the NPV results of each plan.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLS, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as xls, pdf, or txt
    of 52

    Discount Rate

    For Plan A (RA) 9% RA - RB


    For Plan B (RB) 8%

    Price 2 Thousand rupees/passenger

    Demand Expectation
    The first year 300 Thousand passengers
    The second year 600 Thousand passengers
    The third year 900 Thousand passengers

    Capacity
    Long HSR 900 Thousand passengers/year
    Short HSR 300 Thousand passengers/year

    Variable Cost
    Long HSR 1.28 Thousand rupees/passeng SPINNER
    Short HSR 1.5 Thousand rupees/passeng HERE

    Capital expenditure
    Long HSR 900 Million rupees
    Short HSR 300 Million rupees

    Uncertain factor 50% of the expectation

    Salvage value
    For Plan A 0 Million dollar
    For Plan B 300 Million dollar
    mean NPVB - mean NPVA =

    Deterministic NPVB -81.66438043


    Year 1 2 3
    Random Demand 341.33 691.27 911.38

    Demand Simulator

    1,000
    900
    Units

    800
    700
    600
    500
    400
    300
    200
    100
    0
    1 2 3
    Year
    Year 0 1 2
    Number 1 1
    Capacity 900.0 900.0
    Demand 341.3 691.3
    Service 341.3 691.3
    Unit Price 2.0 2.0
    Revenue 682.7 1382.5
    Unit Variable Cost 1.28 1.28
    Variable Cost 436.9 884.8
    Investment 900.0 0.0 0.0
    Salvage
    Net value -900.0 245.8 497.7
    Discount Factor @ 9.0% 1.0 0.9 0.8
    Present Value -900.0 225.5 418.9
    NPV 244.8
    3
    1
    900.0
    911.4
    900.0
    2.0
    1800.0
    1.28
    1152.0
    0.0
    0.0
    648.0
    0.8
    500.4
    Year 0 1 2
    Number 1 2
    Capacity 300.0 600.0
    Demand 341.3 691.3
    Service 300.0 600.0
    Unit Price 2.0 2.0
    Revenue 600.0 1200.0
    Unit Variable Cost 1.5 1.5
    Variable Cost 450.0 900.0
    Investment 300.0 300.0 300.0
    Salvage
    Net Value -300.0 -150.0 0.0
    Discount Factor @ 8.0% 1.0 0.9 0.9
    Present Value -300.0 -138.9 0.0
    NPV 156.5

    Formula for G3: IF(E5>E4,E3+1,E3)


    3
    3
    900.0
    911.4
    900.0
    2.0
    1800.0
    1.5
    1350.0

    300.0
    750.0
    0.8
    595.4
    Mean 244.76
    NPVA Max 244.76
    Min 244.76
    Mean 156.49 Cumulative Distribution Function
    NPVB Max 156.49 NPVA NPVB
    Min 156.49 Bound Count CDF Bound Count CDF
    0 244.76 2000 100.00% 156.49 2000 100.00%
    NPVA 244.76 NPVB 156.49 1 244.76 2000 100.00% 156.49 2000 100.00%
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49 2 244.76 2000 100.00% 156.49 2000 100.00%
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49 3 244.76 2000 100.00% 156.49 2000 100.00%
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49 4 244.76 2000 100.00% 156.49 2000 100.00%
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49 5 244.76 2000 100.00% 156.49 2000 100.00%
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49 6 244.76 2000 100.00% 156.49 2000 100.00%
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49 7 244.76 2000 100.00% 156.49 2000 100.00%
    100%

    Probability
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49 8 244.76 2000 100.00% 156.49 2000 100.00%
    90%
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49 9 244.76 2000 100.00% 156.49 2000 100.00%
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49 10 244.76 2000 100.00% 156.49 2000 100.00% 80%
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49 11 244.76 2000 100.00% 156.49 2000 100.00% 70%
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49 12 244.76 2000 100.00% 156.49 2000 100.00% 60%
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49 13 244.76 2000 100.00% 156.49 2000 100.00% 50%
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49 14 244.76 2000 100.00% 156.49 2000 100.00% 40%
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49 15 244.76 2000 100.00% 156.49 2000 100.00% 30%
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49 16 244.76 2000 100.00% 156.49 2000 100.00% 20%
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49 17 244.76 2000 100.00% 156.49 2000 100.00% 10%
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49 18 244.76 2000 100.00% 156.49 2000 100.00% 0%
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49 19 244.76 2000 100.00% 156.49 2000 100.00% 150 160 170
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49 20 244.76 2000 100.00% 156.49 2000 100.00%
    NP
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49 NP
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49 Histogram
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49 NPVA NPVB
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49 Bound Count Bound Count
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49 0 244.76 0 156.49 0 Histogram
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49 1 244.76 0 156.49 0 1
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49 2 244.76 0 156.49 0
    0.8
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49 3 244.76 0 156.49 0
    0.6
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49 4 244.76 0 156.49 0
    0.4
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49 5 244.76 0 156.49 0
    0.2
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49 6 244.76 0 156.49 0
    0
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49 7 244.76 0 156.49 0
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49 8 244.76 0 156.49 0 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 7
    4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
    24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49 9 244.76 0 156.49 0
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49 10 244.76 0 156.49 0
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49 11 244.76 0 156.49 0
    Histogram
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49 12 244.76 0 156.49 0
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49 13 244.76 0 156.49 0 1

    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49 14 244.76 0 156.49 0 0.8

    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49 15 244.76 0 156.49 0 0.6


    0.4
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49 16 244.76 0 156.49 0
    0.2
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49 17 244.76 0 156.49 0
    0
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49 18 244.76 0 156.49 0
    49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 4
    56. 56. 56. 56. 56. 56. 56. 56. 56. 56. 56.
    1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
    1
    0.8
    0.6
    0.4
    0.2
    0

    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49 19 244.76 0 156.49 0 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 4


    56. 56. 56. 56. 56. 56. 56. 56. 56. 56. 56.
    1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49 20 244.76 0 156.49 0
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
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    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
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    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
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    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
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    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
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    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
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    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    0.00 244.76 NPVB 156.49
    end-> end->
    With Plan A:
    10% chance of having NPV below 244.76 million $
    10% chance of having NPV higher than 244.76 million $

    With Plan B:
    10% chance of having NPV below 156.49 million $
    10% chance of having NPV higher than 156.49 million $

    CDF

    100%
    Probability

    244.76 1 156.49 1
    90%
    244.76 0 156.49 0
    80%
    70%
    60%
    50%
    40%
    30%
    20%
    10%
    0%
    150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 250
    NPV
    NPVA NPVB
    NPVA Mean NPVB Mean

    Histogram - NPVA

    76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76
    4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
    24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24

    Histogram - NPVB

    49 .49 .49 .49 .49 .49 .49 .49 .49 .49 .49 .49 .49 .49 .49 .49 .49 .49 .49 .49
    6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
    15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
    49 .49 .49 .49 .49 .49 .49 .49 .49 .49 .49 .49 .49 .49 .49 .49 .49 .49 .49 .49
    6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
    15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
    Year 0 1 2
    Number of plants 1 2
    Capacity 300.0 600.0
    Demand 300.0 600.0
    Production 300.0 600.0
    Unit Price 2.0 2.0
    Revenue 600.0 1200.0
    Unit Variable Cost 1.5 1.5
    Variable Cost 450.0 900.0
    Investment 300.0 300.0 300.0
    Salvage
    Net Value -300.0 -150.0 0.0
    Discount Fac 1.0 0.9 0.9
    Present Valu -300.0 -138.9 0.0
    NPV (Million -81.7
    3
    3
    900.0
    900.0
    900.0
    2.0
    1800.0
    1.5
    1350.0

    450.0
    0.8
    357.2

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