C O N D U C T E D FO R C I T Y OF

M O D ESTO

V OTER O PINION S URVEY P R ES E N T E D BY

T I M OT H Y M C L A R N E Y P H . D.

4/21/2022
 PURPOSE OF STUDY

o Determine if a local sales tax measure is feasible

o Identify how to create a measure consistent with
community priorities
o Gather information needed for communications &
outreach

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 METHODOLOGY OF STUDY

o Conducted March 25 th to March 30 th , 2022

o Random Sample: 1,117 registered voters likely to
participate in the November 2022 election
o Mixed-Method approach
o Recruit via email, text and telephone
o Data collection via telephone and online
o 16-minute average interview length
o English & Spanish
o Overall margin of error ± 2.9%

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QUALITY OF LIFE
Not sure
0.6
Very poor
Excellent
3.2
3.6
Poor
12.3

Good
37.3

Fair
42.6

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 CHANGES TO IMPROVE CITY
Address homeless issues 38.0
Improve public safety, reduce drugs, crime, gangs 16.2
Beautify, clean up City 9.9
Not sure / Cannot think of anything specific 9.7
Improve, maintain roads, infrastructure 8.6
Provide more police presence, funding 6.7
Provide more affordable housing 6.2
Enforce traffic law s 5.1
Improve landscaping, address tree mistletoe issues 4.0
Reduce traffic congestion 3.9
Reduce cost of living 3.7
Improve economy, jobs 3.4
Provide more community events, activities for all ages 3.0
Improve environmental efforts 2.8
Improve, provide more parks, rec facilities 2.8
Improve dow ntow n area 2.4
Provide more mental health services 2.4
Improve government transparency, communication 2.0
Limit grow th, development, preserve open space 1.8
Improve city planning, development, zoning 1.6

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
% Respondents

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SATISFACTION WITH CITY SERVICES

Prefer not to
answ er
0.8
Not sure Very satisfied
Very 6.7 8.3
dissatisfied
12.6

Somew hat
Somew hat
satisfied
dissatisfied
46.4
25.2

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 INITIAL BALLOT TEST

To provide funding for general city services in the City of

Modesto, including:

o Police patrols, gang, drug, and crime prevention

o Fire protection, paramedic, and 9-1-1 emergency response
o Safer, cleaner parks and public areas
o Improving traffic enforcement
o Improving response to abandoned properties, trash, and
litter
o Maintaining streets, sidewalks, and infrastructure

shall an ordinance establishing a one -cent sales tax be

adopted, providing 39 million dollars annually for Modesto city
services until ended by voters, with citizen oversight and all
money locally controlled? If the election were held today,
would you vote yes or no on this measure?

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INITIAL BALLOT TEST

Prefer not to
answ er
Not sure 0.9
8.8
Definitely yes
Definitely no 32.9
16.4

25%
65%
Probably no
9.1

Probably yes
31.9

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 PROJECTS & SERVICES Strongly favor Somewhat favor

Fix and maintain streets and roads 66.5 23.4

Address homelessness 71.9 16.8

Clean up piles of trash and litter that people dump along streets,
63.0 25.7
sidewalks, in public areas
Improve the safety and cleanliness of parks and recreation facilities 60.8 27.5

Provide quick responses to 9-1-1 emergencies 67.5 19.9

Repair and maintain public buildings, sidewalks, curbs, and storm drains 59.4 27.5

Reduce gang activity and drug-related crimes 66.7 20.2

Provide fire protection and paramedic services 58.1 27.5

Provide police services, including neighborhood police patrols and crime
62.5 21.3
prevention
Protect creeks, streams, and Tuolumne River from trash and pollution 51.9 30.5

City tree trimming and mistletoe abatement 46.2 36.0

Enforce code violations, such as abandoned properties that create
56.4 25.6
neighborhood hazards, invite illegal activities
Attract new businesses and good-paying jobs to the City 54.0 27.8

Provide programs and services to seniors 43.0 36.7

Provide after-school programs to keep youth on the right track and out of
50.8 28.6
trouble
Remove illegal graffiti 39.9 36.8

Convert abandoned buildings into affordable housing 53.6 21.8

Increase traffic enforcement to reduce DUIs and red-light running,
50.3 24.8
improve safety, save lives
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
% Respondents

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 POSITIVE ARGUMENTS
Very convincing Somewhat convincing
Fast 9-1-1 response critical for saving lives; measure will ensure enough
police, firefighters, dispatchers, paramedics to respond quickly to 9-1-1 40.8 32.0
emergencies
According to experts, City has ~50% police officers needed to keep
community safe; measure will provide funding to restore police positions 39.0 32.2
cut due lack of funding
By keeping city safe, clean, well-maintained, measure will help improve
37.8 33.3
property values, quality of life in Modesto
Traffic enforcement officers cut from 19 positions to just 4; number of
DUIs, traffic fatalities continue to grow; we need more officers to keep 40.5 29.2
community safe
Abandoned properties create neighborhood hazards, attract trash, illegal
activities; measure will improve enforcement, clean-up, help convert 35.3 33.7
properties to better use
High quality parks, recreation programs help keep kids healthy, active,
31.7 33.0
away from drugs, gangs, crime

All money raised by measure will be used to fund essential services,

35.5 28.9
facilities here in Modesto; by law, it can’t be taken away by State
There will be a clear system of accountability incl independent citizen
oversight, annual reports to community to ensure that money is spent 32.3 30.7
properly
City has done good job keeping costs down, deferring maintenance,
32.2 26.9
cutting back services, reducing staff; still facing $15M deficit

Measure will cost just $1 for every $100 purchased - and food, medicine,
26.8 30.2
many other essential items are excluded from the tax

Measure will help fund the economic development programs City needs to
26.2 30.7
attract new employers, good paying jobs to Modesto

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
% Respondents

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INTERIM BALLOT TEST
Prefer not to
answ er
1.6
Not sure
8.2

Definitely no Definitely yes

15.0 36.1

25%
Probably no
65%
9.9

Probably yes
29.1

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 NEGATIVE ARGUMENTS
Very convincing Somewhat convincing

Taxes are already too high, we can’t afford another tax

increase; this is especially true for seniors, others on 46.9 29.4
fixed-incomes

Local businesses, residents have been hit hard by

pandemic, inflation, rising gas prices; many are
44.5 30.3
struggling to stay afloat; now is not the time to raise
taxes

There are no guarantees how funds will be spent, City

can divert money to pet projects without any say from 43.9 28.5
voters; we can’t trust City with tax dollars

This tax will last forever. There is no expiration date 37.3 24.0

City employees are making too much money in salary,

pensions, benefits - that’s the problem; City needs to 32.8 25.6
tighten its belt before asking residents to pay more taxes

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
% Respondents

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FINAL BALLOT TEST

Prefer not to
answ er
Not sure 1.6
9.4 Definitely yes
29.1
Definitely no
16.0

29% 60%

Probably no
13.0
Probably yes
30.8

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FINAL BALLOT TEST AT 1/2 CENT

Prefer not to
answ er
Not sure
1.6
8.5

Definitely no
13.5

Probably no Def, prob yes @

10.3 1 cent (Q11)
60.0
Probably yes
5.7
Definitely yes
0.5

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 KEY CONCLUSIONS
o Does a local sales tax measure appear to be feasible for
November 2022? Yes.
Positive Signs
o Voters value the services they receive from the City and see
opportunity for improvement
o Strong natural support for proposed measure (65%)
o Popular projects and services
o Positive arguments resonate
o All ballot tests are well above the simple majority (50%+1) required
for passage of general tax, even after opposition arguments
Challenges
o Negative arguments get some traction
o Potential for hyper-partisan November 2022 election environment
o Unknowns: trajectory of pandemic, inflation, international conflict

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 OBSERVATIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS
o Snapshot in time, not a crystal ball.
o Price Tag: Solid support for 1 cent measure. Reducing the tax rate
does not significantly improve measure’s chance for passage.
o Voters’ Priorities: Maintain streets and roads, address
homelessness, clean up trash/litter, improve park safety &
cleanliness, 911 emergency response, reduce gang activity and
drug-related crimes, repair/maintain infrastructure.
o City Communications: Expand the conversation with the
community to build awareness and understanding of your needs
and consensus on a proposal.
o Independent Campaign: Need to have solid independent
campaign to navigate through the election cycle and weather
uncertainties (pandemic, inflation, cross -cutting political winds).

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