3.

Probability and Statistics

Applied to Hydrology
Chin - chapter 8

Dr. Luis E. Lesser

All Tables and Figures (except where noted) were kindly provided by Pearson, from the
textbook by David A. Chin, 2013. Water –Resources Engineering, 3rd edition.
 Probability and statistics

1
𝑇=
𝑃𝑒

1 𝛾𝑟 return period (𝑇1 )

10 𝛾𝑟 return period (𝑇10 )

50 𝛾𝑟 return period (𝑇50 )

100 𝛾𝑟 return period (𝑇100 ) E𝑥𝑐𝑒𝑒𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦

𝑜𝑓 1% 𝑖𝑛 1 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
 Probability and statistics

What do we need this for?

• Dams
• Floods

𝑃𝑓 = Risk of failure of a structure

N = number of years

𝑃𝑓 = 1 − (1 − 𝑃𝑒)𝑁
 Statistical parameters

Mean (average) 𝜇 different types (arithmetic, geometric)

Variance 𝜎2
𝜎 = 𝜎2
Standard deviation 𝜎

Discrete Σ
Distributions
Continuous ∫
 Statistical parameters

Skewness

Data with skewness < 1 or >1 is greatly skewed

Graph from: wikipedia

 Discrete Distribution Continuous Distribution

𝑁 Probability +∞
Probability density 𝑓 𝑥 ′ 𝑑𝑥′ = 1
𝑓 𝑋𝑛 = 1 −∞
distribution function
𝑛=1
function Infinite # of
Finite # of answers
answers

∞
PDFs 𝐹𝑥 𝑥 = 𝑓 𝑥 ′ 𝑑𝑥′
𝑃(𝑥𝑖 ≤ 𝑥𝑛 ) = 𝑓(𝑥𝑖 )
−∞
𝑥𝑖 < 𝑥𝑛
𝑛 ∞
Mean 𝜇= 𝑥 ′ 𝑓 𝑥 ′ 𝑑𝑥′
𝜇= 𝑥𝑖 𝑓(𝑥𝑖 )
−∞
𝑖=1

𝑛 ∞
variance 𝜎2 = (𝑥 ′ − 𝜇𝑥 )2 𝑓 𝑥 ′ 𝑑𝑥′
𝜎2 = (𝑥𝑖 −𝜇𝑥 )2 𝑓(𝑥𝑖 ) −∞
𝑖=1
𝑛 ∞
1 skweness 𝑔𝑓 = (𝑥 ′ − 𝜇𝑥 )3 𝑓 𝑥 ′ 𝑑𝑥′
𝑔𝑓 = 3 (𝑥𝑖 −𝜇𝑥 )3 𝑓(𝑥𝑖 ) −∞
𝜎𝑥
𝑖=1
 Example 8.1

A water-resource system is designed such that the probability f(xi), that the
system capacity is exceeded xi times during the 50-year design life, is given by the
following discrete probability:
xi f(xi)
0 0.13
1 0.27
2 0.28
3 0.18
4 0.09
5 0.03
6 0.02
>6 0.00

a) Is this a probability density function or a probability distribution function?

b) What is the mean number of failures expected in 50 years?
c) What are the variance and skweness of the number of failures?
d) Produce an approximate graph of the distribution
 Example 8.1

a) Is this a probability density function or a probability distribution function?

b) What is the mean number of failures expected in 50 years?

𝑛

𝜇= 𝑥𝑖 𝑓(𝑥𝑖 ) = 2
𝑖=1

c) What are the variance and skweness of the number of failures?

𝑛

𝜎2 = (𝑥𝑖 −𝜇𝑥 )2 𝑓(𝑥𝑖 ) = 1.92

𝑖=1 𝜎 = 𝜎 2 = 1.39
𝑛
1
𝑔𝑓 = 3 (𝑥𝑖 −𝜇𝑥 )3 𝑓(𝑥𝑖 ) = 0.631
𝜎𝑥
𝑖=1
d) Produce an approximate graph of the distribution

𝜎 = 1.4𝜎 = 1.4 2 𝑠𝑡𝑑 𝑐𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟 68% 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑎

0.4 𝜇 = 2 3.4
 Return Period
Remember:
1
𝑇 = 𝑃𝑒 where 𝑃𝑒 is exceedance probability
1
𝑃𝑒 =
𝑇

1
100 𝑦𝑟 𝐹𝑙𝑜𝑜𝑑 exceedance probability 𝑜𝑓 = 1% in any given 𝑦𝑟
100

1
20 𝑦𝑟 𝐹𝑙𝑜𝑜𝑑 exceedance probability 𝑜𝑓 20 = 5% in any given 𝑦𝑟

𝑃 𝑋 > 𝑋𝑇 = 𝑃
1
𝑃 𝑋 > 𝑋𝑇 = 𝑇

𝑃 𝑋 < 𝑋𝑇 = 1 − 𝑃

Cumulative Probability
 Example 8.3
Analyses of the maximum-annual floods over the past 150 years in a small river
indicate the following cumulative distribution

Flow, Xn
P(X<xn)
a) Estimate the magnitude of (m3/s)
the flood with a return 0 0
period of 10 years 25 0.19
50 0.35
b) Estimate the magnitudes of 75 0.52
the floods with return
100 0.62
periods of:
 Yellow – 20 years 125 0.69
 Orange – 35 years 150 0.88
 Blue – 50 years 175 0.92
 Green – 100 years 200 0.95
225 0.98
250 1.00
 PROBABILITY FUNCTIONS

1. Binomial Distribution or Bernoulli Distribution

• It is a discrete probability distribution

• Describes mathematically success or failure (coin toss)
• The outcome of any trial is independent of any other trial

𝑁 𝑛 𝑁−𝑛
𝐵𝑖𝑛𝑜𝑚𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝐷𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 = 𝑓𝑛 = 𝑃 1−𝑃
𝑛
P = probability of success
n = number of successes
N = number of trials
𝑁 𝑁!
= 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑚𝑢𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠 =
𝑛 𝑛! 𝑁 − 𝑛 !
 Example 8.4
The capacity of a storm water-management system is designed to accommodate
a storm with a return period of 10 years.

a) What is the probability that the stormwater system will fail once in 20 years?

Answer:
27%

a) What is the probability that the stormwater system will fail at least once in 20
years?

Answer:

The risk of failure (𝑃𝑓 ) or the probability that fails at least once in 20 years is 88%

In other words, the reliability of the structure in 20 years is 12%

 2. Poisson Distribution

• Is a limiting case of Bernoulli Distribution in which the

expected number of successes (𝑁 ∗ 𝑃) is constant

• The number of trials (N) is large and the probability of success

(P) in each trial diminishes

Examples:
Large earthquake in Mexico City→ 20 years with no event
Return period → 10 years with no event

𝜆𝑛 𝑒 −𝜆
𝑃=𝑓 𝑛 =
𝑛!

𝜆 = expected number of successes = 𝑁 ∗ 𝑃

 Example 8.6

A flood-controls system is designed for a runoff event with a 50-year return

period. Assuming that exceedence of the 50-year runoff event is a Poisson
process:

a) What is the probability that the design event will be exceeded twice in the first
10 years of the system?
b) What is the probability that the design event will be exceeded more than
twice in the first 10 years?

Answers:
a) 1.6%
b) 0.1%
 3. Gamma Distribution

Describes the probability in time of an event in a Poisson process

𝜆𝑛 𝑡 𝑛−1 𝑒 −𝜆𝑡
𝑓 𝑡 =
𝑛−1 !

n= number of success (exceedances)

𝜆 = 𝑁 ∗ 𝑃 = expected number of exceedances or successes
t = time
N = number of trials
P = probability

Note that the variable in here is time!

 3. Gamma Distribution
𝑛
𝜇𝑡 =
𝜆
𝑛 2
𝜎𝑡2 = 2 time 𝑔𝑡 =
𝜆 𝑛

When n is not an integer, then:

𝜆𝑛 𝑡 𝑛−1 𝑒 −𝜆𝑡
𝑓 𝑡 =
Γ(𝑛)
∞ Gamma Function
Γ(𝑛) = 𝑡 𝑛−1 𝑒 −1 𝑑𝑡 Γ(𝑛) =(n-1)! For n = 1,2,3…
0

generally used for skewed variables

 4. Pearson III Distribution (or Gama III Distribution)

Similar to Gamma Distribution

𝜆𝛽 (𝑋 − 𝜖)𝛽−1 𝑒 −𝜆(𝑥−𝜖)
𝑃(𝑥) =
Γ(𝛽)
2 𝛽
2 𝛽 𝜖 = 𝜇𝑥 −
𝛽= 𝜆= 𝜆
𝑔𝑥 𝜎𝑥

• Used for distribution of annual-maximum flood peaks

• Widely used in China
 5. Log-Pearson Type III or LP3 Distribution

• It is the log of the Gama III Distribution

• It is also called Log-Pearson Type III Distribution or LP3

• Officially recommended by the U.S. Interagency Advisory Committee on Water

Data by the ASCE (1980)
 6. Normal Distribution or Gaussian Distribution

Symetrical, bell-shaped

2
1 1 𝑥 − 𝜇𝑥
𝑓(𝑥) = 𝑒𝑥𝑝 −
𝜎𝑥 2𝜋 2 𝜎𝑥

Standard Normal Deviate (Z):

𝑥 − 𝜇𝑥
𝑧=
𝜎𝑥
 6. Normal distribution or Gaussian Distribution

Probability density function f(z)

1 −𝑧 2
𝑓(𝑧) = exp
2𝜋 2

f(z) → area under the curve

Approximation:
𝐵 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑍 ≤ 0
F 𝑧 ≈
1−𝐵 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑍 ≥ 0

1 2 3 4 −4
𝐵 = 1 + 0.196854 𝑍 + 0.115194 𝑍 + 0.000344 𝑍 + 0.019527 𝑍
2
 Example 8.9

The annual rainfall in the Upper Kissimmee River basin has been estimated to have
a mean of 130 cm and a standard deviation of 15.6 cm. Assuming that the annual
rainfall is normally distributed, what is the probability of having an annual rainfall
of less than 101.6 cm?

Answer:
3.4%
 7. Log Normal Distribution

1 (ln 𝑥 − 𝜇𝑦 )2
𝑓 𝑥 = 𝑒𝑥𝑝 − 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑥 > 0
𝑥𝜎𝑦 2𝜋 2𝜎𝑦2

Where: 𝑌 = ln 𝑋 𝜇𝑦 ≠ 𝑙𝑛𝜇𝑥

𝜎𝑦2 𝑔𝑥 = 3𝐶𝑣 + 𝐶𝑣3

𝜇𝑥 = exp(𝜇𝑦 + )
2
𝜎𝑥2 = 𝜇𝑥2 [exp(𝜎𝑦2 ) − 1]

𝜎𝑥
𝐶𝑣 = Coefficient of variation 𝐶𝑣 =
𝜇𝑥

𝑦−𝜇𝑦
Z=
𝜎𝑦
∴ we will transform the variable X into the variable Y and calculate Z
in terms of Y
 Example 8.10

Annual-maximum discharges in the Guadalupe River show a mean of 801 m3/s and
a standard deviation of 851 m3/s. If the capacity of the river channel is 900 m3/s,
and the flow is assumed to follow a log-normal distribution, what is the probability
that the maximum discharge will exceed the channel capacity?

Answer:
There is a 28.6% of probability of flooding on any given year
 8. Gumbel Distribution or
Extreme Value Type I Distribution

• Extreme values are either maxima or minima

• For Type I the “parent” distribution is unbounded in the direction of the

desired extreme value.

• Falls off exponentially

𝑃𝑥 𝑥 = 1 − 𝑒 −𝑔(𝑥)
 8. Gumbel Distribution or
Extreme Value Type I Distribution

• Gumbel Distribution is must useful in the determining extreme events,

such as:

 Annual maximum floods

 Maximum rainfall
 Maximum wind speed

• The parent distribution to estimate the maxima can be normal, log normal,
gamma, exponential
 8. Gumbel Distribution or
Extreme Value Type I Distribution

If we use the normal distribution as the parent distribution we have:

1 𝑥 −𝑏 𝑥 −𝑏 𝑓𝑜𝑟: −∞ < 𝑥 < ∞

𝑓 𝑥 = 𝑒𝑥𝑝 ± − 𝑒𝑥𝑝 ± −∞ < 𝑏 < ∞
𝑎 𝑎 𝑎
𝑎>0

For maxima: For minima:

𝜇𝑥 = 𝑏 + 0.577𝑎 𝜇𝑥 = 𝑏 − 0.577𝑎
𝜎𝑥2 = 1.645 𝑎2 𝜎𝑥2 = 1.645 𝑎 2
𝑔𝑥 = 1.1396 𝑔𝑥 = −1.1396
𝑥−𝑏
If 𝑦= then
𝑎
Gumbel distribution: 𝑓 𝑦 = exp[±𝑦 − exp ±𝑦 ]

Maxima: 𝑓 𝑦 = exp[− exp −𝑦 ]

Minima: 𝑓 𝑦 = 1 − exp[− exp 𝑦 ]

 Example 8.12

The annual-maximum discharges in the Guadalupe River between 1935 and 1978
show a mean of 811 m3/s and a standard deviation of 851 m3/s. Assuming that the
annual-maximum flows are described by an extreme-value Type I (Gumbel)
distribution, estimate the annual-maximum flowrate with a return period of 100
years.

Answer:
A flow of 3,482 m3/s has a return period of 100 years
 Estimation of Population Distributions

1. Visually comparing data to theoretical distributions

 Estimation of Population Distributions

2. Using hypothesis-testing methods

i) Chi-Square

Chi-square can be used as a distribution probability or as a hypothesis testing method

𝑀
(𝑋𝑚 − 𝑁𝑃𝑚 )2
𝑋2 =
𝑁𝑃𝑚
𝑚=1
Degrees of freedom= M-1-n
where n=population parameters (𝜇,𝜎, 𝑔, 𝑒𝑡𝑐)

The null hypothesis 𝐻0 is taken as:

𝐻0 : the samples come from the proposed distribution

𝐻0 is accepted at the significance level α if:

0<𝑋 2 <𝑋𝛼2
 Example 8.18 – using Chi-Square

Analysis of a 47-year record of annual rainfall indicates the following frequency

distribution. The measured data also indicate a mean of 1225 mm and a standard
deviation of 151 mm. Using a 5% significance level, assess the hypothesis that the
annual rainfall is drawn from a normal distribution.

Rainfall range Number of

(mm) outcomes
<1000 2
1000-1050 3
1050-1100 4
1100-1150 5
1150-1200 6
1200-1250 7
1250-1300 7
1300-1350 5
1350-1400 3
1400-1450 2
1450-1500 2
>1500 1
 Example 8.18 – using Chi-Square

From normal distribution:

𝑥 − 𝜇𝑥 𝜇𝑥 = 1225 mm
𝑧= 𝑥 − 1225
𝜎𝑥 𝜎𝑥 = 151 mm 𝑧=
151
𝛼=5%

X rainfall data

𝐻0 =The data comes from a normal distribution

𝐻1 =The data does not come from a normal distribution

 Example 8.18 – using Chi-Square
1 2 3
Rainfall Number of Rainfall P(Z<z)
z
range (mm) outcomes (mm) (cumulative) 1. Assign a single
<1000 2 1000 -1.49 0.07 rainfall value (x)
1000-1050 3 1050 -1.16 0.12 for each data
1050-1100 4 1100 -0.83 0.2 interval
1100-1150 5 1150 -0.50 0.31
1150-1200 6 1200 -0.17 0.43 2. Calculate z for
1200-1250 7 1250 0.17 0.57 every event X
1250-1300 7 1300 0.50 0.69 𝑥 − 1225
1300-1350 5 1350 0.83 0.8 𝑧=
151
1350-1400 3 1400 1.16 0.88
1400-1450 2 1450 1.49 0.93 3. Calculate P(Z<z)
→ Cumulative
1450-1500 2 1500 1.82 0.97 Distribution
>1500 1 (from table C1)
 Example 8.18 – using Chi-Square

1 2 3 4 5
Rainfall Number of Rainfall P(Z<z) Theoretical
Theoretical
z Probability for
range (mm) outcomes (mm) (cumulative) interval (Pm) outcomes (N*Pm)

<1000 2 1000 -1.49 0.07 0.07 3.29

1000-1050 3 1050 -1.16 0.12 0.05 2.35
1050-1100 4 1100 -0.83 0.2 0.08 3.76
1100-1150 5 1150 -0.50 0.31 0.11 5.17
1150-1200 6 1200 -0.17 0.43 0.12 5.64
1200-1250 7 1250 0.17 0.57 0.14 6.58
1250-1300 7 1300 0.50 0.69 0.12 5.64
1300-1350 5 1350 0.83 0.8 0.11 5.17
1350-1400 3 1400 1.16 0.88 0.08 3.76
1400-1450 2 1450 1.49 0.93 0.05 2.35
1450-1500 2 1500 1.82 0.97 0.04 1.88
>1500 1 0.03 1.41
Total: 47 1 47
4. Determine the Theoretical Probability (Pm) for each interval

5. Calculate the theoretical number of outcomes 𝑁 ∗ 𝑃𝑚 = 47 ∗ 𝑃𝑚

 Example 8.18 – using Chi-Square

1 2 3 4 5 6
Rainfall Number of Rainfall P(Z<z) Theoretical
Theoretical (X-N*Pm)2/
z Probability for
N*Pm
range (mm) outcomes (mm) (cumulative) interval (Pm) outcomes (N*Pm)

<1000 2 1000 -1.49 0.07 0.07 3.29 0.5058

1000-1050 3 1050 -1.16 0.12 0.05 2.35 0.1798
1050-1100 4 1100 -0.83 0.2 0.08 3.76 0.0153
1100-1150 5 1150 -0.50 0.31 0.11 5.17 0.0056
1150-1200 6 1200 -0.17 0.43 0.12 5.64 0.0230
1200-1250 7 1250 0.17 0.57 0.14 6.58 0.0268
1250-1300 7 1300 0.50 0.69 0.12 5.64 0.3279
1300-1350 5 1350 0.83 0.8 0.11 5.17 0.0056
1350-1400 3 1400 1.16 0.88 0.08 3.76 0.1536
1400-1450 2 1450 1.49 0.93 0.05 2.35 0.0521
1450-1500 2 1500 1.82 0.97 0.04 1.88 0.0077
>1500 1 0.03 1.41 0.1192
Total: 47 1 47 1.42
𝑀
6. Calculate 𝑋2 𝑎𝑠: (𝑋𝑚 − 𝑁𝑃𝑚 )2
𝑋2 =
𝑁𝑃𝑚
𝑚=1
 Example 8.18 – using Chi-Square

We got 𝑋 2 =1.42

Remember, to accept 𝐻0 We need 0<𝑋 2 <𝑋𝛼2 with α=0.05 significant level

We must get 𝑋𝛼2 from Table C3

V=M–1–n

M = 12 → number of intervals
n=2 → number of population parameters (𝜇 and 𝜎)
V = 12 – 1 – 2 = 9

From table C3, using 5% and V = 9

 Example 8.18 – using Chi-Square
2
Then, using a 5% significant level 𝑋0.05 = 16.919,
2
And with 𝑋 =1.42

We get: 0 < 𝑋 2 < 𝑋𝛼2

0 < 1.42 < 16.919

Then the hypothesis 𝐻0 (that the distribution comes from a normal distribution) is
accepted at a 0.05 significant level
 ii) Kolmogorov-Smirnov test

Another hypothesis testing method to determine the distribution

If the calculated D value is less than (<) the critical Ks value, then 𝐻0 is accepted

Example 8.19:

Use the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test at the 10% significance level to assess the
hypothesis that the data from example 8.18 are drawn from a normal distribution
 Example 8.19 using Kolmogorov-Smirnov
1. Calculate z for every X (same as the X2 test)
2. Calculate the cumulative number of outcomes (k)

1 2
Theoretical
Cumulative
Rainfall (mm) normalized Number of Sample distribution PX(x) (from
Number of |PX(x)-SN(x)|
(x) rainfall (z) outcomes SN(x) =(k/N) appendix
outcomes (k)
C)
1000 -1.490 2 2 2/47=0.043 0.068 0.025
1050 -1.159 3 5 5/47=0.106 0.123 0.017
1100 -0.828 4 9 9/47=0.191 0.204 0.013
1150 -0.497 5 14 14/47=0.298 0.31 0.012
1200 -0.166 6 20 20/47=0.426 0.434 0.008
1250 0.166 7 27 27/47=0.574 0.566 0.008
1300 0.497 7 34 34/47=0.723 0.69 0.033
1350 0.828 5 39 39/47=0.830 0.796 0.034
1400 1.159 3 42 42/47=0.894 0.877 0.017
1450 1.490 2 44 44/47=0.936 0.932 0.004
1500 1.821 2 46 46/47=0.979 0.966 0.013

Same as χ test
 Example 8.19 using Kolmogorov-Smirnov
3. Calculate the simple distribution Sn(x) = k/𝑁
N = number of years of data = 47

1 2 3
Theoretical
Cumulative
Rainfall (mm) normalized Number of Sample distribution PX(x) (from
Number of |PX(x)-SN(x)|
(x) rainfall (z) outcomes SN(x) =(k/N) appendix
outcomes (k)
C)
1000 -1.490 2 2 2/47=0.043 0.068 0.025
1050 -1.159 3 5 5/47=0.106 0.123 0.017
1100 -0.828 4 9 9/47=0.191 0.204 0.013
1150 -0.497 5 14 14/47=0.298 0.31 0.012
1200 -0.166 6 20 20/47=0.426 0.434 0.008
1250 0.166 7 27 27/47=0.574 0.566 0.008
1300 0.497 7 34 34/47=0.723 0.69 0.033
1350 0.828 5 39 39/47=0.830 0.796 0.034
1400 1.159 3 42 42/47=0.894 0.877 0.017
1450 1.490 2 44 44/47=0.936 0.932 0.004
1500 1.821 2 46 46/47=0.979 0.966 0.013

Same as χ test
 Example 8.19 using Kolmogorov-Smirnov
4. Calculate the theoretical Px(x) using the normalized rainfall (z) in column 1, and
the appendix C1 (just as in X2 test)

1 2 3 4
Theoretical
Cumulative
Rainfall (mm) normalized Number of Sample distribution PX(x) (from
Number of |PX(x)-SN(x)|
(x) rainfall (z) outcomes SN(x) =(k/N) appendix
outcomes (k)
C)
1000 -1.490 2 2 2/47=0.043 0.068 0.025
1050 -1.159 3 5 5/47=0.106 0.123 0.017
1100 -0.828 4 9 9/47=0.191 0.204 0.013
1150 -0.497 5 14 14/47=0.298 0.31 0.012
1200 -0.166 6 20 20/47=0.426 0.434 0.008
1250 0.166 7 27 27/47=0.574 0.566 0.008
1300 0.497 7 34 34/47=0.723 0.69 0.033
1350 0.828 5 39 39/47=0.830 0.796 0.034
1400 1.159 3 42 42/47=0.894 0.877 0.017
1450 1.490 2 44 44/47=0.936 0.932 0.004
1500 1.821 2 46 46/47=0.979 0.966 0.013

Same as χ test
 Example 8.18 – using Kolmogorov-Smirnov

5. Calculate |𝑃𝑥 𝑥 − 𝑆𝑁(𝑋)| = |𝑐𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑚𝑛4 − 𝑐𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑚𝑛3|

6. Determine D, which is the maximum difference between theoretical and the

maximum distribution (largest value in column 5)

1 2 3 4 5
Theoretical
Cumulative
Rainfall (mm) normalized Number of Sample distribution PX(x) (from
Number of |PX(x)-SN(x)|
(x) rainfall (z) outcomes SN(x) =(k/N) appendix
outcomes (k)
C)
1000 -1.490 2 2 2/47=0.043 0.068 0.025
1050 -1.159 3 5 5/47=0.106 0.123 0.017
1100 -0.828 4 9 9/47=0.191 0.204 0.013
1150 -0.497 5 14 14/47=0.298 0.31 0.012
1200 -0.166 6 20 20/47=0.426 0.434 0.008
1250 0.166 7 27 27/47=0.574 0.566 0.008
1300 0.497 7 34 34/47=0.723 0.69 0.033
1350 0.828 5 39 39/47=0.830 0.796 0.034 6
1400 1.159 3 42 42/47=0.894 0.877 0.017
1450 1.490 2 44 44/47=0.936 0.932 0.004
1500 1.821 2 46 46/47=0.979 0.966 0.013
 Example 8.18 – using Kolmogorov-Smirnov

7. Determine the Ks critical value from Appendix C4, where:

n = Sample size = number of rainfall intervals = 11

(different from X2 test)

Significance level=10%
7
 Example 8.18 – using Kolmogorov-Smirnov

8. Determine if 𝐻0 is accepted

𝐻0 is accepted only if:

D < Ks

Since

D = 0.034 and
Ks =0.352, then

𝐻0 is accepted and the data comes from normal distribution a 10% significant level
 MetEd Online - 3

1) Do: “Flood Frequency Analysis"