DELPHI TECHNIQUE

Submitted by- Satya Tripathi

Veeneet Kaur
What is Delphi Method?
■ The Delphi method is a process used to arrive set up group opinion decision by
surveying a panel of experts.

■ It is a forecasting process framework based on the results of multiple rounds of

questionnaires sent to a panel of experts.

Why we use this Method?

■ The Delphi method was initially used to forecast trends and outcomes in the fields of
science and technology.
■ Additionally, it’s been used to forecast outcomes related to the economy, education,
healthcare, and public policy.

■ It is also useful in business situations, helping forecast sales with 96%-97% accuracy
compared to actual sales numbers. As a result, the Delphi method can be used as a
technique to predict the success of business events.
Examples of Delphi Method
■ The Delphi technique or method has big applications in

● solving high impact business projects

● matters of highly sensitive political issues
● public policy issues
● libraries

■ For high impact projects to be successful, the project manager has to determine
the probability of specific events that can occur through the course of the project
and analyze how such events affect the projects or not. In such a scenario, the
Delphi method plays an instrumental role in identifying the opportunities and risks
related to the project.
Process of Delphi Method
1. Identify the issue and objective
It is important to define the issue one is trying to solve and what one want to
achieve by using the Delphi method.

2. Choose a group of experts and a facilitator

The experts can be individuals who are internal or external to the organization.
The facilitator should take a neutral position and be someone with experience
with research and data collection.

3. Round one questionnaire

The facilitator provides the first questionnaire for the experts. The type of
questions in round one are usually open-ended, as it allows experts to
brainstorm their ideas.
4. Round two questionnaire

The second questionnaire should be created by analyzing the answers observe

from the first round. Identify any similarities between answers and eliminate
irrelevant content, so the second questionnaire can go in the direction.

5. Round three questionnaire

The third questionnaire should be created by analyzing answers from the

second questionnaire. The experts will answer the third questionnaire based on
their opinions from the summary report of answers in the second round.
Three types of Delphi method
1. Policy : There is a need to devise a strategy to address a specific problem.
2. Classical : Used to forecast future trends
3. Decision making : Used to achieve better decision making
Advantages and disadvantages
Advantages :-
1. Since the responses of the participants are anonymous, individual panelists
don't have to worry about repercussions for their opinions.
2. Consensus can be reached over time as opinions are swayed, making the
method very effective.

Disadvantages :-
1. The Delphi method does not result in the same sort of interaction as a live
discussion.
2. Response times with a Delphi method can be long, which slows the rate of
discussion
Conclusion
■ The process of the Delphi method involves asking multiple rounds of questions
to the target group of experts.

■ They do so until they arrive at the common consensus and correct answer.

■ The process is exploratory with broad application in project management and

public domain.

■ Such a method avoids difficult face to face interactions and helps in solving the
common problem related to the dynamics of the group.

■ The process collects regular feedback at each step.

■ The method, in short, helps in understanding the likelihood or probability of an

event to happen or take place.
Refrences
■ https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/delphi-
method.asp#:~:text=The%20Delphi%20method%20is%20a%20process%20u
sed%20to%20arrive%20at,surveying%20a%20panel%20of%20experts.&tex
t=The%20experts%20can%20adjust%20their,of%20what%20the%20group
%20thinks

■ https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/other/delphi-
method/

■ https://www.wallstreetmojo.com/delphi-method/

■ https://www.drcath.net/toolkit/delphi-methods