2017 5th International Conference on Instrumentation, Communications, Information Technology, and Biomedical Engineering (ICICI-BME)
Bandung, 6-7 November 2017
Short-term Wind Speed Prediction Base on
Backpropagation Levenberg-Marquardt Algorithm;
Case Study Area Nganjuk
Teuku Multazam 1, Ratna Ika Putri2
1
Department of electrical engineering
Faculty of Industrial Technology ITS
Surabaya, Indonesia
2
Department of electrical engineering
Politeknik Negeri Malang, Indonesia
E-mail: teuku.multazam@gmail.com1,
ratna.ika@14mhs.ee.its.ac.id2
Abstract—Wind energy is one of the main sources of
renewable energy that is widely converted to electrical
energy because reduce emission. The fluctuating of the wind
will affect power quality of wind power generation when
delivered to grid so that it takes prediction of short-term
wind speed. In this study, wind speed prediction use
Backpropagation Neural Network (BPNN) with Lavenberg
- Marquardt algorithms for weight update. Its performance
will be compared with Conjugate Gradient Fletcher Reeves
(CGFR) and Conjugate Gradient Quasi Newton (BFGS)
based on correlation coefficient, Mean Square Error
(MSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and
computation time. Based on the testing, Levenberg
Marquardt Backpropagation Neural Network is the most
optimal algorithm compared to fletcher - reeves and quasi
newton where the value of correlation coefficient is 0.99056,
MSE 0.0187, MAPE 5.1965 and computation time 79.19
milisecon.
Keywords—algorithm; prediction short term; wind speed;
BPNN; Wind Turbine.
I. INTRODUCTION
Wind energy is one main sources of renewable energy that is
converted into electrical energy [1] because widely available
and reduce emission. The intermittent of wind speed will be
effect on wind power systems. It is can be effect to unstable of
wind power generation systems that will impact on the quality
of power delivered to grid. Wind speed prediction is one of to
maintain power quality to grid, improve wind power efficiency,
and control wind energy conversion systems [2].
Currently, short-term wind speed prediction using various
methods, namely, persistence, statistic, spatial correlation,
physical, artificial intelligent and hybrid [3-9]. Artificial neural
network is the best method that can be used for time series
prediction because it can be used to express a complex
nonlinear relationship [2].
978-1-5386-3455-4/17/$31.00 ©2017 IEEE
Margo Pujiantara3, Vita Lystianingrum4, Ardyono Priyadi5,
Mauridhi Hery P6
3,4,5,6
Department of electrical engineering
Faculty of Industrial Technology ITS
Surabaya, Indonesia
3 4
Margo@ee.its.ac.id , vitagrum@gmail.com ,
5 6
priyadi@ee.its.ac.id , hery@ee.its.ac.id
Backpropagation neural network is the best method to get
optimal result because has high accuracy [10] and many
algorithms are used to update weights so as to reduce predictive
error and get optimal results [11].
In this study presents with speed prediction based on wind
speed measurement in Nganjuk, Indonesia. Three algorithms
are used to predict of short-term wind speeds such as
Levenberg-Marquardt, Conjugate Gradient Fletcher Reeves
(CGFR), Conjugate Gradient Quasi Newton (BFGS). These
algorithms used will be compared to see the performance to get
best algorithm that has high accuracy and faster convergence in
making prediction of short-term wind speed.
II. ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK
Artificial neural networks are the most widely applied
artificial neural networks to solve problems ie forecasting,
pattern recognition, medical diagnosis, image classification,
code translation, and various other pattern recognition analyzes
[6-10]. The various artificial neural network methods have been
developed as well as multilayer perceptron, radial base function,
backpropagation, probabilistic neural network [12-15].
Backpropagation is a supervised learning algorithm and is
usually used with multiple layers to change the weights
connected to neurons is in the layer as shown in Figure 1.
The weight update will be corrected if the resulting network
output is divergent of target. These use three algorithms ie,
Levenberg-Marquardt, Conjugate Gradient Fletcher-Reeves
(CGFR), Conjugate Quasi Newton Gradient (BFGS).
Fig. 1. Structure of Backpropogation Neural Network
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2017 5th International Conference on Instrumentation, Communications, Information Technology, and Biomedical Engineering (ICICI-BME)
Bandung, 6-7 November 2017
A. Lavenbert Marquadt Algorithm
The Levenberg - Marquardt algorithm is a standard
backpropagation algorithm. This algorithm will be corrected
weight update process and the bias using negative gradient
descent directly. This method has a fast convergence [16]. The
Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm uses Hesian (H) matrix
approach that can be computed by the equation:
‫ ܪ‬ൌ ‫ܬ ்ܬ‬
The gradient can be calculated,
݃ ൌ  ‫݁ ்ܬ‬
J is a jacobian matrix which contains the first derivative of
the network error to the weight and the bias of the network. The
weight changes can be calculated through equations
III. PREDICTION MODEL WIND SPEED
The data used in the training and testing to predict short-term
wind speed base on the measurement on Nganjuk City in
August 2015 with height of 8 meters. These data include wind
speed, humidity, wind direction, temperature, and pressure. The
data used are 720 in seconds intervals and divided into two
process, 80 % training set and 20 % testing set.
(1) In this research, the method used is backpropagation neural
network through weight updates algorithm that is Levenberg
Marquardt, Fletcher Reeves, and Quasi Newton. The results of
(2) this improvement were obtained based on the performance of
MSE, MAPE, and the time of convergence. Each of the
performance results and the time will be compared.
Backpropagation neural network uses three layers with input
as first layer, hidden layer as second layer, and output as third
οš ൌ  ሾ‫ ܬ ்ܬ‬൅ Ɋሿ െ ‫݁ ்ܬ‬ (3) layer. To input layer using 4 neurons, the hidden layers use 25
neurons which activation function is tangent sigmoid can be
e is a vector that the network output, ȝ is the learning calculated:
constant, and I is the identity matrix. The weighted update can
be determined with: ଵ
݂ሺ‫ݔ‬ሻ ൌ   (8)
š ൌ š ൅  οš (4) ଵା௘ షೣ

š ൌ  οš ൅  ሾ ୘ ൅ Ɋሿ െ  ‫݁ ்ܬ‬ (5) The layer output use 1 neuron which activation function is
purelin. The learning algorithm uses in this research is
B. Quasi Newton Algorithm Levenberg - Marquadt, Fletcher Reeves, and Quasi Newton. The
Quasi Newton's algorithm is one of conjugate gradient performance of neural network used and the prediction of wind
alternatives that can get optimum value and faster using newton speed prediction using correlation coefficient parameter, mean
method [7]. The basic concept of the newton method is absolute error (MSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE),
and convergent time.
ܹ௞ାଵ  ൌ ܹ௞  െ  ‫ିܣ‬ଵ
௞ ‫ כ‬൅‰ܹ௞ (6) The MSE can be calculated:

σ ȁ௒೟ ିᐓ೟ ȁమ
k is a hessian matrix (second derivatives) of the ‫ ܧܵܯ‬ൌ (9)
௡
performance index of the k-value weights. Newton's method is
runs faster, but this method is very complex, requires The MAPE can be determined:
considerable time and memory because at each iteration must ଵ ௒೟ ିᐓ೟
be calculated second derivative. ‫ ܧܲܣܯ‬ൌ σ ȁ ȁͳͲͲΨሺͳͲሻ
௡ ௒೟
The conjugate gradient method can be considered as
ܻ௧ is actual wind speed and ᐓ௧ is predicted wind speed.
derivative gradient descent and Newton's method. This is
motivated by the desire to accelerate the normally slow
convergence associated with decreased gradients. This method TABEL 1. PARAMETER BACKPROPOGATION
also avoids the information requirements associated with the NEURAL NETWORK
evaluation, storage, and inversion of the Hessian matrix, as Parameter Value
required by Newton's method. Input 4
Node Hidden Of Layer 25
C. Algoritma Fletcher- Reeves (CGFR) Output 1
Fletcher-Reeves algorithm which is one of the conjugate Epochs 1000
gradient alternatives that can get the optimum value faster IV. RESULT AND DISCUSS
through update weight process. These process of is not always
a downward direction but adapted to conjugate direction [7]. In this paper we will be compared the performance results of
The basic concept used for the improvement of weights is the predicted short-term wind velocity by using backpropagation
neural network Levenberg - Marquardt, Fletcher-Reeves, quasi
௚ௐೖ ᇱ‫ כ‬௚ௐೖ newton. The performance is analyzed by correlation coefficient,
 ൌ ௚ௐ ‫כ‬ (7) mean square error (MSE), mean absolute percentage error
ೖషభ ᇱ ௚ௐೖషభ
(MAPE) and convergent time. Figure 2 shows the comparison
between the predicted wind speed and actual data using
Lavenberq-Marquardt Algorithm. Figure 3 shows the
comparison between the predicted wind speed and actual data

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 2017 5th International Conference on Instrumentation, Communications, Information Technology, and Biomedical Engineering (ICICI-BME)
Bandung, 6-7 November 2017

using Fletcher Reeves algorithm. Figure 4 shows the wind speed
forecasting results using the Quasi Newton algorithm.
Fig. 2. Prediction result using Backpropogation Levenberq Marquardt Neural
Network
Based on Figure 4 shows that the results of testing using
backpropagation neural network with Fletcher-Reeves
algorithm obtained that the value of MSE produced is 0.1081
and MAPE value is 26.70 percent with a computation time of
317.31 milisecon.
To compare the performance of the three algorithms used
for backpropagation the correlation coefficient, MSE, MAPE,
and computation time of training and testing results are
tabulated in tables 2 and 3. Based on the table it is found that
the highest correlation coefficient of training and testing is
produced by Backpropagation Neural Network Lavenberq
Marquardt with the resulting value of 0.99927 and 0.99056 with
a computation time of 335.62 milliseconds and 79.17
millisecons, as well as the smallest MSE and MAPE produced.
This shows that Background Neural Network Lavenberq
Marquardt has better performance than Backpropagation
Neural Network using Fletcher - Reeves and Quasi Newton
algorithms.

Based on Figure 4 shows that the results of testing using TABLE I. PERFORMANCE BACKPROPOGATION NEURAL NETWORK OF
TRAINING
backpropagation neural network with Fletcher Reeves
algorithm obtained that the value of MSE produced is 0.1081 Algorithm Auto MSE MAPE Time
and MAPE value is 26.70 percent with a computation time of Correlation (milisecon)
317.31 milisecon. Lavenberq 0.99927 0.0018 3.54725 335.625
Marquardt
Fletcher 0.99547 0.009766 9.08397 595.64
Reeves
Quasi Newton 0.99582 0.00847 8.59015 538.75

TABLE II. PERFORMANCE BACKPROPOGATION NEURAL NETWORK OF

TESTING

Algorithm Auto MSE MAPE Time

Correlation (milisecon)
Lavenberq 0.99056 0.0187 5.1965 79.17
Marquardt
Fletcher Reeves 0.9442 0.1081 26.7018 317.31
Quasi Newton 0.97252 0.0970 17.464 282. 65

Fig. 3. Prediction result using Backpropogation Quasi Newton Neural V. CONCLUTION

Network
Based on figure 3 shows that the results of testing using
Backpropagation Neural Network with Quasi Newton algorithm
obtained the value of MSE produced is 0.0970 and MAPE value
is 17.46 with a computation time of 282.65 milisecon.
Based on the above comparison results show that
Lavenberq Marquardt Backpropagation Neural Network is the
best algorithm in predicting short-term wind speeds because it
shows the advantages of the highest correlation coefficient,
MSE, MAPE and low computational time. As for the second
and third position of Backpropagation Neural Network Quasi
Newton and Backpropagation Neural Network Fletcher –
Reeves. The result can be used as input on a control system for
output power stability of wind turbine and grid system. In
future, the result can be used as input on a control system for
output power stability of wind turbine and grid system.

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Bandung, 6-7 November 2017

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