Shell Attempts To Return To

Premiere Status

In partial fulfillment of the requirements in

BA535 Management Science

Leading to the degree of Master of Business Administration

SUBMITTED BY:
Group 2
Ignacio, Dan Louis
Mercado, Jia Raschelynn
Pablo, Maureen
Pablo, Teresa

SUBMITTED TO:
DR. FRANKIE VILLANUEVA

JULY 2021
 Shell Attempts To Return To Premiere Status

1. Suppose you were asked to develop a sampling plan to determine what a “premiere
company” is to the general public. What sampling plan would you use? What is the
target population? What would you use for a frame? Which of the four types of random
sampling discussed in this chapter would you use? Could you use a combination of two
or more of the types (two-stage sampling)? If so, how?

Sampling plan:
Random samples of around 875 will be selected for research. These 875 citizens can be
divided into strata according to Socio-Economic Class as presented in the table below. Each
stratum will have distinct members and number of members.

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Target Population: Socio-Economic Class Divisions (?)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Low Upper
Income Lower Middle Upper Income
STRATUM
Poor (but Middle Middle Middle (but Rich
not Income Income Income not
poor) rich

POPULATION
400 350 300 250 200 150 100
SIZE

SAMPLING
1/2 1/2 1/2 1/2 1/2 1/2 1/2
FRACTION

FINAL
SAMPLING 200 175 150 125 100 75 50
SIZE RESULTS

Frame: People who lives in the capital of the Philippines, Manila.

 Working population
 Has mobile phone
 Has access to internet and social media

Type of Random Sampling: Proportionate Stratified Random Sampling

Yes, as an example of two-stage sampling, researchers might choose a few test market
cities at random and then sample every 100th name from the phone book or interview everyone
in a few randomly selected blocks inside the test market city.

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2. It appears that at least one of the research companies hired by Shell used some
stratification in their sampling. What are some of the variables on which they are
stratified? If you were truly interested in ascertaining opinions from a variety of
segments of the population with regard to opinions on “premiere” companies or about
Shell, what strata might make sense? Name at least five and justify why you would
include them.

Shell contracted researchers appear to have stratified on age, ethnicity, household

location, occupation, and previous employment with Shell.

With regard to opinions about Shell as a “premier” company, some strata that might
make sense are age, ethnicity, economic class, education, occupation, gender, and geographic
location. It is important to Shell that all segments of the U.S. adult population be reached.

a. Young and Old People - In order to test to determine the effectiveness of marketing
campaigns, Shell needs to recognize that there will likely be differences in the
perceptions of young people and those of old people of what a “premier” company
should be because of their life experiences and the types of messages that appeal to
them.

b. Ethic Groups - different cultural values may appeal to different groups.

c. Economic class - the economics of the household may determine what types of
“premier” messages appeal to their needs.

d. Education - at what level of education should the messages be targeted.

e. Occupation - how does Shell impact various occupations differently? eg. environment,
reliability of products, availability of products, pricing),

f. Gender - often men and women seek different outcomes from firms)

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 g. Geographic location – state and regional cultures vary and thus consumer messages
should be targeted so as to parallel geographic interest.

3. Suppose that in 1979 only 12% of the general adult U.S. public believed that Shell was
a “premiere” company. Suppose further that you randomly selected 350 people from the
general adult U.S. public this year and 25% said that Shell was a “premiere” company. If
only 12% of the general adult U.S. public still believes that Shell is a “premiere”
company, how likely is it that the 25% figure is a chance result in sampling 350 people?
Hint: Use the techniques in this chapter to determine the probability of the 25% figure
occurring by chance.

In 1979, p = 0.12. A new survey of n = 350 resulted in p̂ = 0.25.

Prob. ( p̂ > 0.25 | n = 350 and p = 0.12 ):

^p − p 0.25−0.12
z= ¿

√ p.q
n √ (0.25)(0.75) = 5.62
350

the area for z = 5.62 is 0.5000.

Prob.( p̂ > .25) = .5000 - .5000 = .0000

It is virtually impossible to randomly select 350 people and have 25% declare that Shell
is a “premier” company if in the population only 12% believe that Shell is a “premier” company.
This is strong statistical evidence that the 12% figure is no longer true and that the actual
population figure is greater.

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4. PERT Survey Research conducted quantitative surveys in an effort to measure the
effectiveness of various campaigns. Suppose on their survey instrument, they used a
continuous scale of from 0 to 10 where 0 denotes that the campaign is not effective at all,
10 denotes that the campaign is extremely effective, and other values fall in between to
measure the effectiveness. Suppose also that a particular campaign received an average
of 3.6 on the scale with a standard deviation of 1.4 early in the tests. Later, after the
campaign had been critiqued and improved, a survey of 35 people was taken and a
sample mean of 4.0 was recorded. What is the probability of this sample mean or one
greater occurring if the actual population mean is still just 3.6? Based on this probability,
do you think that a sample mean of 4.0 is just a chance fluctuation on the 3.6 population
mean, or do you think that perhaps it indicates the population mean is now greater than
3.6? Support your conclusion. Suppose a sample mean of 5.0 is attained. What is the
likelihood of this result occurring by chance when the population mean is 3.6? Suppose
this higher mean value actually occurs after the has been improved. What does it
indicate?

Prob. ( x̄ ≥ 2.0 | µ = 1.8, σ = 0.7, and n = 35) :

x̄−µ 2.0−1.8
z=
σ = 0.7 = 1.69
√n √35

the area for z = 1.69 is 0.4545

Prob.( x̄ > 2.0) = 0.5000 - 0.4545 = 0.0455

There is only a 4.55% probability that the sample mean of 2.0 was obtained by chance. It is
likely that the population mean is no longer 1.8 and indeed, is now higher.

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