Month/ Year January February March April

MTC 2013
Starting 120,816 125,871 120,415 132,696
Shipped 26,203 33,738 18,977 40,057
Production 31,258 28,281 31,258 32,747
Ending 125,871 120,415 132,696 125,386

My 2013 Forecast
Alpha 0.1
Squared Error 56,776,225 63,680,400 193,154,404
2013 MSE 173,046,647
Starting 120,816 120,816 113,281 121,261
Forecast Production 26,203 26,203 26,957 26,159
Shipped 26,203 33,738 18,977 40,057
Closing 120,816 113,281 121,261 107,363
Closing Diff (MTC to My Forecast) 5,055 7,134 11,435 18,023
Total Inventory Reduction/Saved 254,387

MTC 2014
Starting 125,767 131,395 126,075 139,201
Shipped 27,135 34,962 19,637 41,514
Production 32,763 29,642 32,763 34,323
Ending 131,395 126,075 139,201 132,010

My 2014 Forecast
Alpha 0.1
Squared Error 61,261,929 68,574,961 208,051,776
2013 MSE 186,128,772
Starting 120,816 120,816 112,989 121,270
Forecast Production 27,135 27135 27918 27090
Shipped 27,135 34,962 19,637 41,514
Closing 120,816 112,989 121,270 106,846
Closing Diff (MTC to My Forecast) 10,579 13,086 17,931 25,164
Total Inventory Reduction/Saved 352,195

My 2015 Forecast
Forecasted Production 26,669 26,669 27,438 26,625
Starting 101,756 101,756 94,075 102,206
Forecasted Shipped 26,669 34,350 19,307 40,786
Closing 101,756 94,075 102,206 88,045
May June July August September October

125,386 124,197 135,897 121,361 141,836 129,436

33,429 18,070 47,283 1,852 42,170 30,419
32,240 29,770 32,747 22,327 29,770 32,747
124,197 135,897 121,361 141,836 129,436 131,764

34,574,400 101,344,489 406,143,409 744,907,849 248,188,516 5,895,184

107,363 101,483 111,550 91,397 118,690 102,936

27,549 28,137 27,130 29,145 26,416 27,991
33,429 18,070 47,283 1,852 42,170 30,419
101,483 111,550 91,397 118,690 102,936 100,508
22,714 24,347 29,964 23,146 26,500 31,256

132,010 130,192 144,269 129,639 149,643 138,731

34,581 18,685 48,953 1,838 43,675 31,457
32,763 32,763 34,323 21,842 32,763 34,323
130,192 144,269 129,639 149,643 138,731 141,597

36,590,401 109,244,304 435,181,321 803,155,600 266,701,561 6,150,400

106,846 100,797 111,249 90,388 118,728 102,397

28532 29137 28092 30178 27344 28977
34,581 18,685 48,953 1,838 43,675 31,457
100,797 111,249 90,388 118,728 102,397 99,917
29,395 33,020 39,251 30,915 36,334 41,680

28,041 28,637 27,611 29,662 26,880 28,484

88,045 82,080 92,340 71,833 99,649 83,607
34,005 18,378 48,118 1,845 42,923 30,938
82,080 92,340 71,833 99,649 83,607 81,153
November December

131,764 127,822
32,223 22,894
28,281 20,839
127,822 125,767

15,912,121 32,936,121

100,508 96,519
28,234 28,633
32,223 22,894
96,519 102,258
31,303 23,509

141,597 136,333
33,346 23,677
28,082 23,402
136,333 136,058

16,982,641 35,521,600

99,917 95,796
29225 29637
33,346 23,677
95,796 101,756
40,537 34,302

28,730 29,135
81,153 77,098
32,785 23,286
77,098 82,947