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BUFC Spring 2018 Presentation - Paul - Niharika-2
BUFC Spring 2018 Presentation - Paul - Niharika-2
BUFC Spring 2018 Presentation - Paul - Niharika-2
InvestmentUFI
NYSE: Research
I Presentation
Month Day,
Sector: M 20XX
Industrials
April 24th, 2018
Senior Analysts: Niharika Pendharkar, Paul Menexas
Junior Analysts: Nolan Tiss, Subaru Honge, Radhey
Patel, Thanweer Ahmed, Dylan Melanson
1
Unifi Valuation Summary
Recommendation Summary
Recommendation BUY
Target Price $43.51
Upside Potential 32.0%
Recommendation BUY
2
Agenda
Industry Definition & Breakdown
Company Overview
Risk Analysis
Summary/Recommendation
3
Industry Definition
• The Textile Manufacturing Industry includes the sale and production of petrochemical
and raw materials such as cotton and wool (natural fibers), and polyester and nylon
(synthetic fibers)
• Finished products that are created with the materials from this industry include
apparel, home textiles, industrial and consumer products, floor coverings, fiber fill and
tires.
Textured Nylon and Covered Knitters and Weavers of United States and
Spandex Products Apparel and Hosiery Colombia
Markets
10
Trend 1: Shift in Product Mix Towards PVA yarns
▪ Premium Value Added yarns have been rising in
popularity in North America and Europe due to the
high quality and sustainability offered.
▪ PVA yarns will continue to drive top line growth as
well as increase gross margins. .4%
9
▪ Unifi has lessened the impact of low quality yarn G R:
imports since it has started to move away from CA
competing with cheap foreign textile suppliers.
12
Trend 2: Diversification of Yarns in Product Portfolio
• Unifi acquired National Spinning on April 12th, 2018 for an undisclosed value to
move into the market for wool and acrylic yarn. This will allow for growth in
key market segments such as sweaters, hosiery, and apparel.
• Unifi currently owns a 34% minority stake in Parkdale America LLC. in order to
hedge against a change in consumer preference for cotton.
• The acquisition will have a positive impact on both Unifi’s production facilities
as well as their product portfolio.
Dye Facility Transitioning • This will shorten product development and production lead
times, which increases customer responsiveness.
from Burlington, N.C. • Unifi expects to operate on a seven-day schedule.
(National Spinning) to • No net gain in the number of employees as a result of the
Reidsville, N.C (Unifi, Inc.) acquisition.
14
Trend 3: Capacity Expansion Plan
• Unifi has laid out a plan to spend ~$138M from
F15 to F17 on expansion with maintenance
capex at around $10M per year.
• The expansion is primarily focused on
supporting its core production capacity to handle
growing PVA product sales.
• Unifi’s expansion plan is more about adding
additional capacity to its existing footprint
(current buildings and land) than expanding its
footprint.
16
Comparable Companies Analysis
Comparable Company Analysis
Company Ticker EV Market Cap Revenue EBITDA Net Income P/E EV/EBITDA EV/Revenue
Unifi, Inc. UFI 718.5 633.8 663.9 9.90% 5.30% 18.0x 10.9x 1.1x
Lydall, Inc. LDL 863.3 846.0 698.4 14.00% 7.10% 17.1x 8.8x 1.2x
Culp, Inc. CULP 342.0 384.1 322.9 11.30% 4.50% 26.4x 9.4x 1.1x
Albany International Corp. AIN 2,407.8 2,068.9 863.7 18.60% 3.80% 63.0x 15.0x 2.8x
Interface, Inc. TILE 1,669.1 1,522.0 996.4 14.80% 5.30% 28.8x 11.3x 1.7x
The Dixie Group, Inc. DXYN 181.0 45.6 412.5 4.30% (2.30%) N/A 10.2x 0.4x
Implied Price Target $53.15 Implied Price Target $32.04 Implied Price Target $40.23
17
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
Forecasted
Perpetuity Growth Method
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Growth Rate 2.00%
Undiscounted TEV $882,244
EBIT $30,995 $47,994 $55,051 $59,126 $61,641 Discounted TEV $585,510
DCF Value $728,160
- Taxes $(4,990) $(12,478) $(13,763) $(14,781) $(15,410)
Equity Value $643,417
$26,004 $35,515 $41,288 $44,344 $46,230 Add: Investment in Affiliates $153,368
Share Price $43.56
+ D&A $23,188 $24,309 $22,994 $24,590 $24,741 Implied Exit Multple 9.87
Unlevered FCF $24,513 $7,107 $48,485 $53,516 $56,613 EBITDA Multiple 10.20x
Undiscounted TEV $911,831
Net Present Value $142,649.76
Discounted TEV $605,146
DCF Value $747,796
Equity Value $663,053
Key Statistics: WACC Calculation:
Add: Investment in Affiliates $153,368
Share Price $44.64
Current Trading Price (04-24-2018) $34.65 Cost of Debt 2.50%
Implied Growth Rate 2.20%
Market Cap $633,780.90 % Weight 16%
Net Debt $84,743.00
Beta 0.63 Cost of Equity 9.69%
Shares Outstanding 18,290.94 % Weight 84%
Value of Investment in Affiliates $153,368
Marginal Tax Rate 21.00% WACC 8.55%
18
Unifi Valuation Summary
Recommendation BUY
Target Price $43.51
Target Price $43.51
19
Thank You
20
Appendix: Income Statement
Income Statement
Historical Forecasted
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Revenue 713,962.0 687,902.0 687,121.0 643,637.0 647,270.0 684,413.5 714,545.1 742,335.4 767,474.6 789,687.0
% growth -3.7% -0.1% -6.3% 0.6% 5.7% 4.4% 3.9% 3.4% 2.9%
COGS (excl. D&A) (616,274.0) (586,744.0) (578,373.0) (532,477.0) (532,738.0) (578,230.3) (588,083.4) (608,140.6) (625,808.5) (643,763.8)
% of Revenue 86.32% 85.29% 84.17% 82.73% 82.31% 84.49% 82.30% 81.92% 81.54% 81.52%
Gross Profit 97,688.0 101,158.0 108,748.0 111,160.0 114,532.0 106,183.2 126,461.7 134,194.8 141,666.0 145,923.2
% Margin 13.7% 14.7% 15.8% 17.3% 17.7% 15.5% 17.7% 18.1% 18.5% 18.5%
SG&A (47,386.0) (46,203.0) (49,672.0) (47,502.0) (50,829.0) (49,025.4) (51,183.8) (53,174.4) (54,975.2) (56,566.3)
% of Revenue 6.64% 6.72% 7.23% 7.38% 7.85% 7.16% 7.16% 7.16% 7.16% 7.16%
EBITDA 50,302.0 54,955.0 59,076.0 63,658.0 63,703.0 57,157.8 75,277.9 81,020.4 86,690.8 89,356.9
% Margin 7.0% 8.0% 8.6% 9.9% 9.8% 8.4% 10.5% 10.9% 11.3% 11.3%
Depreciation (24,584.0) (17,896.0) (18,043.0) (17,528.0) (20,368.0) (23,187.9) (24,308.8) (22,993.8) (24,589.9) (24,740.9)
Amort. of Intangibles 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 - - - - -
Total D&A (24,584.0) (17,896.0) (18,043.0) (17,528.0) (20,368.0) (23,187.9) (24,308.8) (22,993.8) (24,589.9) (24,740.9)
Provision for Bad Debts 154.0 (287.0) (947.0) (1,684.0) 123.0 (528.2) (528.2) (528.2) (528.2) (528.2)
Other Operating Expenses (3,409.0) (5,289.0) (1,600.0) (2,248.0) 310.0 (2,447.2) (2,447.2) (2,447.2) (2,447.2) (2,447.2)
Total Operating Expenses (75,225.0) (69,675.0) (70,262.0) (68,962.0) (70,764.0) (75,188.7) (78,468.0) (79,143.7) (82,540.5) (84,282.6)
Operating Income (EBIT) 22,463.0 31,483.0 38,486.0 42,198.0 43,768.0 30,994.5 47,993.7 55,051.1 59,125.6 61,640.6
% Margin 3.1% 4.6% 5.6% 6.6% 6.8% 4.5% 6.7% 7.4% 7.7% 7.8%
Interest Expense (4,489.0) (4,329.0) (4,025.0) (3,528.0) (3,578.0) (3,806.4) (3,806.4) (3,806.4) (3,806.4) (3,806.4)
Interest Income 698.0 1,790.0 916.0 610.0 517.0 911.5 951.7 988.7 1,022.2 1,051.8
Net Interest Inc. (Exp) (3,791.0) (2,539.0) (3,109.0) (2,918.0) (3,061.0) (2,894.8) (2,854.7) (2,817.7) (2,784.2) (2,754.6)
Other Non-Operating Income 11,444.0 19,063.0 19,475.0 8,963.0 4,230.0 10,889.3 8,027.4 7,715.6 8,877.5 8,206.8
EBT Excl. Unusual Items 30,116.0 48,007.0 54,852.0 48,243.0 44,937.0 38,989.0 53,166.4 59,949.0 65,218.8 67,092.8
% Margin 4.2% 7.0% 8.0% 7.5% 6.9% 5.7% 7.4% 8.1% 8.5% 8.5%
Income Tax Expense (13,344.0) (20,161.0) (13,346.0) (15,073.0) (10,898.0) (6,277.2) (13,823.3) (14,987.3) (16,304.7) (16,773.2)
Earnings from Cont. Ops 15,670.0 27,720.0 40,466.0 33,170.0 32,377.0 32,711.8 39,343.2 44,961.8 48,914.1 50,319.6
Minority Int. in Earnings 965.0 1,103.0 1,685.0 1,245.0 498.0 503.1 605.1 691.6 752.4 774.0
Net Income 16,635.0 28,823.0 42,151.0 34,415.0 32,875.0 33,214.9 39,948.3 45,653.3 49,666.5 51,093.6
% Margin 2.3% 4.2% 6.1% 5.3% 5.1% 4.9% 5.6% 6.1% 6.5% 6.5%
EPS $0.84 $1.52 $2.32 $1.93 $1.81 $1.82 $2.18 $2.50 $2.72 $2.79
Historical Forecasted
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Cash And Equivalents 8,755.0 15,907.0 10,013.0 16,646.0 35,425.0 66,644.9 77,579.7 129,738.5 187,824.1 248,526.0
Accounts Receivable 97,459.0 93,617.0 83,554.0 82,727.0 79,791.0 88,426.1 92,319.1 95,909.6 99,157.5 102,027.4
Other Recievables 933.0 308.0 309.0 695.0 1,330.0 (617.4) (627.9) (649.4) (668.2) (687.4)
Total Receivables 98,392.0 93,925.0 83,863.0 83,422.0 81,121.0 87,808.7 91,691.1 95,260.2 98,489.3 101,340.0
Inventory 110,667.0 113,370.0 111,615.0 103,532.0 111,405.0 112,098.8 114,009.0 117,897.4 121,322.6 124,803.5
Income taxes receivable 1,388.0 179.0 1,451.0 3,502.0 9,218.0 1,631.8 3,593.5 3,896.1 4,238.6 4,360.4
Deffered income taxes 3,911.0 4,123.0 3,922.0 2,387.0 2,194.0 1,445.2 3,182.5 3,450.5 3,753.8 3,861.7
Other Current Assets 5,913.0 6,052.0 6,022.0 4,790.0 6,468.0 5,950.9 6,052.3 6,258.7 6,440.6 6,625.4
Total Current Assets 229,026.0 233,556.0 216,886.0 214,279.0 245,831.0 275,580.3 296,108.2 356,501.4 422,069.0 489,516.9
Gross Property, Plant & Equipment 714,806.0 726,529.0 732,205.0 790,646.0 820,420.0 851,019.3 896,041.4 906,511.5 917,028.2 927,167.9
Accumulated Depreciation (599,642.0) (602,727.0) (595,983.0) (605,545.0) (617,032.0) (640,219.9) (664,528.8) (687,522.6) (712,112.5) (736,853.4)
Net Property, Plant & Equipment 115,164.0 123,802.0 136,222.0 185,101.0 203,388.0 210,799.4 231,512.6 218,989.0 204,915.7 190,314.6
Intangibles assets, net 7,772.0 7,394.0 5,388.0 3,741.0 2,158.0 2,158.0 2,158.0 2,158.0 2,158.0 2,158.0
Investments in unconsolidated affiliates 93,261.0 99,229.0 113,901.0 117,412.0 119,513.0 119,513.0 119,513.0 119,513.0 119,513.0 119,513.0
Other non-current assets 10,243.0 5,086.0 3,975.0 4,909.0 613.0 613.0 613.0 613.0 613.0 613.0
Total Assets 455,466.0 469,067.0 476,372.0 525,442.0 571,503.0 608,663.7 649,904.8 697,774.4 749,268.7 802,115.4
Accounts Payable 45,544.0 51,364.0 45,023.0 41,593.0 41,499.0 45,714.5 46,493.5 48,079.2 49,476.1 50,895.6
Accrued Exp. 18,485.0 18,589.0 16,640.0 18,474.0 16,144.0 17,982.0 18,773.7 19,503.8 20,164.3 20,747.9
Curr. Income Taxes Payable 851.0 3,134.0 676.0 1,455.0 1,351.0 1,516.6 1,583.4 1,644.9 1,700.6 1,749.9
ST Debt 65.0 7,215.0 12,385.0 13,786.0 17,060.0 15,289.8 15,550.3 16,080.7 16,547.9 17,022.6
Other Current Liabilities - - - - - - - - - -
Total Current Liabilities 64,945.0 80,302.0 74,724.0 75,308.0 76,054.0 80,502.9 82,400.9 85,308.7 87,888.9 90,416.0
Long Term Debt 97,688.0 92,273.0 91,725.0 107,805.0 111,382.0 111,382.0 111,382.0 111,382.0 111,382.0 111,382.0
Other Non-Current Liabilities 5,053.0 7,549.0 10,740.0 10,393.0 11,804.0 11,804.0 11,804.0 11,804.0 11,804.0 11,804.0
Deferred income taxes 1,300.0 2,205.0 90.0 4,991.0 11,457.0 11,457.0 11,457.0 11,457.0 11,457.0 11,457.0
Total Liabilities 168,986.0 182,329.0 177,279.0 198,497.0 210,697.0 215,145.9 217,043.9 219,951.7 222,531.9 225,059.0
Common Stock 1,921.0 1,831.0 1,801.0 1,785.0 1,823.0 1,823.0 1,823.0 1,823.0 1,823.0 1,823.0
Additional Paid In Capital 36,375.0 42,130.0 44,261.0 45,932.0 51,923.0 51,923.0 51,923.0 51,923.0 51,923.0 51,923.0
Retained Earnings 252,112.0 245,673.0 278,331.0 307,065.0 339,940.0 372,651.8 411,994.9 456,956.7 505,870.8 556,190.4
Treasury Stock - - - - - - - - - -
Comprehensive Inc. and Other (5,500.0) (4,619.0) (26,899.0) (29,751.0) (32,880.0) (32,880.0) (32,880.0) (32,880.0) (32,880.0) (32,880.0)
Total Common Equity 284,908.0 285,015.0 297,494.0 325,031.0 360,806.0 393,517.8 432,860.9 477,822.7 526,736.8 577,056.4
Total Liabilities and Equity 455,466.0 469,067.0 476,372.0 525,442.0 571,503.0 608,663.7 649,904.8 697,774.4 749,268.7 802,115.4
Historical Forecasted
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Net Income 15,670 27,720 40,466 33,170 32,377 32,712 39,343 44,962 48,914 50,320
Add: Depreciation & Amortization 24,584 17,896 18,043 17,528 20,368 23,188 24,309 22,994 24,590 24,741
Less: Change in Net Working Capital (2,642) 17,979 5,198 9,824 (12,027) 5,920 (7,695) (5,327) (4,902) (4,219)
Less: Capital Expenditures (8,809) (19,091) (25,966) (52,337) (33,190) (30,599) (45,022) (10,470) (10,517) (10,140)
Operating Cash Flow 28,803 44,504 37,741 8,185 7,528 31,220 10,935 52,159 58,086 60,702
Initial Cash Balance 10,886 (10,560) (20,644) (347) 10,435 35,425 66,645 77,580 129,738 187,824
Cash Available for Investors 39,689 33,944 17,097 7,838 17,963 66,645 77,580 129,738 187,824 248,526
Revenue_COGS 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Income_Statement 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Polyester Segment % Growth 8.0% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% Revenue Growth
5.7% 4.4% 3.9% 3.4% 2.9%
Nylon Segment % Growth 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% Assumptions
International Segment % Growth 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% COGS % Revenue
84.5% 82.3% 81.9% 81.5% 81.5%
Assumptions
Polyester Segment % COGS 86.0% 84.8% 84.3% 83.8% 83.8%
SG&A % Revenue
Nylon Segment % COGS 89.0% 87.4% 86.9% 86.4% 86.4% 7.2% 7.2% 7.2% 7.2% 7.2%
Assumptions
International Segment % COGS 79.5% 74.8% 74.8% 74.8% 74.8%
23
Appendix: Supplemental Data and Balance Sheet Assumptions
Supplemental Data
Tax Rate 44.31% 42.00% 24.33% 31.24% 24.25% 16.10% 26.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00%
Shares Outstanding 19,909.0 18,919.0 18,207.0 17,857.0 18,136.0 18,290.9 18,290.9 18,290.9 18,290.9 18,290.9
Depreciation as % of Net
21.3% 14.5% 13.2% 9.5% 10.0% 11.0% 10.5% 10.5% 12.0% 13.0%
PP&E
Interest Income as % Sales 0.10% 0.26% 0.13% 0.09% 0.08% 0.13% 0.13% 0.13% 0.13% 0.13%
(Regular Dividends) - - - - - - - - - -
Dividends % of NI 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
(Preferred Dividends Paid) - - - - - - - - - -
Minority Interest -6.2% -4.0% -4.2% -3.8% -1.5% -1.5% -1.5% -1.5% -1.5% -1.5%
Balance Sheet Assumptions
Historical Forecasted
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Net Working Capital (FCF-style) 155,326.0 137,347.0 132,149.0 122,325.0 134,352.0 128,432.5 136,127.6 141,454.3 146,356.0 150,574.9
Accounts Receivable % Revenue 13.7% 13.6% 12.2% 12.9% 12.3% 12.9% 12.9% 12.9% 12.9% 12.9%
Other Receivables % Revenue 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Inventory % COGS 18.0% 19.3% 19.3% 19.4% 20.9% 19.4% 19.4% 19.4% 19.4% 19.4%
Income Tax Receivables % Tax
10.4% 0.9% 10.9% 23.2% 84.6% 26.0% 26.0% 26.0% 26.0% 26.0%
Expense
Other Current Assets % COGS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% 1.2% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Net PP&E as a % of Sales 16.1% 18.0% 19.8% 28.8% 31.4% 30.8% 32.4% 29.5% 26.7% 24.1%
Deferred Income Taxes % Tax
29.3% 20.5% 29.4% 15.8% 20.1% 23.0% 23.0% 23.0% 23.0% 23.0%
Expense
Accounts Payable % COGS 7.4% 8.8% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8% 7.9% 7.9% 7.9% 7.9% 7.9%
Accrued Exp. % SG&A 39.0% 40.2% 33.5% 38.9% 31.8% 36.7% 36.7% 36.7% 36.7% 36.7%
Curr. Inc. Taxes Pay. % Sales -0.12% -0.46% -0.10% -0.23% -0.21% -0.22% -0.22% -0.22% -0.22% -0.22%
ST Debt % of COGS 0.0% 1.2% 2.1% 2.6% 3.2% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6%
Other Crt. Liabilities % COGS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
24
Appendix: Valuation Range
Valuation Range
52-week range Perpetuity Growth Exit Multiple Price/Earnings EV/EBITDA EV/Revenue Reference Range
25
Appendix: Sensitivity Tables
Risks - Sensitivity Analysis
26
Porter’s Five Forces
Industry Rivalry:
Supplier Power: Low Moderate Buyer Power: Moderate
• Many different suppliers offer the • Extremely competitive for • Buyershave the power to chose from
same quality of raw materials. commoditized yarns. many different suppliers of cheap,
• However, because raw materials commoditized yarn.
have such a large impact on the • On the other hand, the •Limited number of suppliers for PVA
manufacturers, they are extremely market for PVA yarns is not yarns make buyer power low for this
sensitive to price changes. as saturated leading to lower quality level of yarn.
competition.
27
SWOT Analysis
Strengths Weaknesses
• Differentiated product in its PVA • A large amount of Unifi’s profit comes
product lines, offering both quality and from minority interest in Parkdale
sustainability America LLC., therefore, it is dependent
on its success
• Strong customer base with high profile
brands using their product • Unifi has no PVA nylon-based yarns
which will likely result in a decline in
• State of the art facilities give Unifi a sales for that specific segment
competitive advantage
Opportunities Threats
• Potential for more competitors to enter
• Potential for even more brand signing
the market for PVA yarns
with more high profile companies
• If oil prices continue to rise, the cost of
• Unifi has the potential to further producing these synthetic yarns will rise
expand its PVA sales into Europe, Asia, as well therefore lowering profits
and South America
• Potential changes in trade regulation or
• There is room for Unifi to further a potential trade war involving textiles
diversify their product portfolio with will have an adverse effect on financials
more fibers
28
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