Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4

Year 1 100 105 125 95

Year 2 102 109 132 102
Year 3 101 107 135 105
Year 4 103 109 135 106
Year 5 104 110 140 107
Year 6

Years Quarters Sales Y MM Diff Medie

Y1 Q1 100
Q2 105
Q3 125 106.5 18.5 20.94
Q4 95 107.25 -12.3 -9.09
Y2 Q1 102 108.625 -6.6 -9.22
Q2 109 110.375 -1.4 -3.81
Q3 132 111.125 20.9
Q4 102 110.75 -8.8 -1.19
Y3 Q1 101 110.875 -9.9
Q2 107 111.625 -4.6
Q3 135 112.25 22.8
Q4 105 112.75 -7.8
Y4 Q1 103 113 -10.0
Q2 109 113.125 -4.1
Q3 135 113.375 21.6
Q4 106 113.625 -7.6
Y5 Q1 104 114.375 -10.4
Q2 110 115.125 -5.1
Q3 140
Q4 107
Y6 Q1 107.9
Q2 113.8
Q3 139.0
Q4 109.5
 Preț – Perioada Preț – Preț – Perioada
Produs
1 Perioada 2 3
A 10.00   12   13
B 22.00 20    21
C 26.00   25 27 
Cant. – Cant. – Cant. – Perioada
Produs
Perioada 1 Perioada 2 3
A 100.00 110  105 
B 60.00 65    66
 C 72.00 70   65 

I VV (4/1) 1.011 1.10%

I VV (Lp) 1.0315 3.15%

I VV (Pq) 0.980 -1.99%

1.011
 You receive the quarterly sales for the second most important product of the
company, for the last 5 years. In order to decide on the next year strategy you are
asked to produce a sales forecast for the next 4 quarters (year 6)!

yt  2 y
 yt 1  yt  yt 1  t  2
8 0

Abateri sez
Y
Y Desez
X
t
yˆ tTMM  2 2
108.92 1
4
108.52 2
21.23 103.77 3 150
-8.80 103.80 4
-8.92 110.92 5 140
-3.52 112.52 6
130
110.77 7
0.00 110.80 8
120
109.92 9
110.52 10 110
113.77 11
113.80 12 100
111.92 13
112.52 14 90
113.77 15
80
114.80 16 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
112.92 17
113.52 18
118.77 19
115.80 20
116.78 21
117.28 22
117.77 23 SUMMARY OUTPUT
118.26 24
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.812526
R Square 0.660199
Adjusted R 0.641321
Standard Er 2.152038
Observation 20

ANOVA
df SS MS
Regression 1 161.9655 161.9655
Residual 18 83.36285 4.63127
Total 19 245.3283
 Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
Intercept 106.4181 0.99969 106.4511
t 0.493515 0.083452 5.913726

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation
Predicted Y Desez
Residuals
1 106.9116 2.010268
2 107.4051 1.110503
3 107.8986 -4.133012
4 108.3922 -4.595277
5 108.8857 2.036208
6 109.3792 3.136443
7 109.8727 0.892928
8 110.3662 0.430663
9 110.8597 -0.937852
10 111.3532 -0.837617
11 111.8468 1.918867
12 112.3403 1.456602
13 112.8338 -0.911913
14 113.3273 -0.811678
15 113.8208 -0.055193
16 114.3143 0.482542
17 114.8078 -1.885973
18 115.3014 -1.785738
19 115.7949 2.970747
20 116.2884 -0.491518

Preț – Perioada 4
VV1 VV4 VV (p4*q1)
13.00 1000 1430 1300
18.00 1320 1134 1080
27.00 1872 1674 1944
Cant. – Perioada 4
4192 4238 4324
110.00
63.00
62.00
 yt  2
yt  yt 1 
8 0
1

2
4

Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

F Significance F
34.97215 1.345E-05
 P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
1.178E-26 104.3178 108.5184 104.3178 108.5184
1.345E-05 0.318188 0.668842 0.318188 0.668842
 Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4
Year 1 100 105 125 95
Year 2 102 109 132 102
Year 3 101 107 135 105
Year 4 103 109 135 106
Year 5 104 110 140 107
Year 6

Years Quarters Sales Y MM Diffe Med

Y1 Q1 100
Q2 105
Q3 125 106.5 18.5 20.94
Q4 95 107.25 -12.25 -9.09
Y2 Q1 102 108.625 -6.625 -9.22
Q2 109 110.375 -1.375 -3.81
Q3 132 111.125 20.875
Q4 102 110.75 -8.75 -1.19
Y3 Q1 101 110.875 -9.875
Q2 107 111.625 -4.625
Q3 135 112.25 22.75
Q4 105 112.75 -7.75
Y4 Q1 103 113 -10
Q2 109 113.125 -4.125
Q3 135 113.375 21.625
Q4 106 113.625 -7.625
Y5 Q1 104 114.375 -10.375
Q2 110 115.125 -5.125
Q3 140
Q4 107
Y6 Q1 107.9
Q2 113.8
Q3 139.0
Q4 109.5
 Preț – Perioada Preț – Preț – Perioada
Produs
1 Perioada 2 3
A 10.00   12   13
B 22.00 20    21
C 26.00   25 27 
Cant. – Cant. – Cant. – Perioada
Produs
Perioada 1 Perioada 2 3
A 100.00 110  105 
B 60.00 65    66
 C 72.00 70   65 

I VV (4/1) 1.011 1.10%

I VV (Lp) 1.031 3.15%

I VV (Pq) 0.980 -1.99%

 You receive the quarterly sales for the second most important product of the
company, for the last 5 years. In order to decide on the next year strategy you are
asked to produce a sales forecast for the next 4 quarters (year 6)!

yt  2 y
 yt 1  yt  yt 1 
 2
8 0

Y X yˆ tTMM
Coef Sez Desez t 4
108.92 1 150
108.52 2
21.23 103.77 3 140

-8.80 103.80 4
130
-8.92 110.92 5
-3.52 112.52 6 120
110.77 7
0.00 110.80 8 110
109.92 9
110.52 10 100
113.77 11
113.80 12 90

111.92 13
80
112.52 14 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q
113.77 15
114.80 16
112.92 17
113.52 18
118.77 19
115.80 20
116.78 21
117.28 22
117.77 23
118.26 24

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.8125262
R Square 0.6601988
Adjusted R Squ 0.641321
Standard Error 2.1520385
Observations 20
 ANOVA
df SS MS F
Regression 1 161.9655 161.9655 34.97215
Residual 18 83.36285 4.63127
Total 19 245.3283

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value
Intercept 106.41809 0.99969 106.4511 1.178E-26
t 0.493515 0.083452 5.913726 1.345E-05

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

ObservationPredicted Desez
Residuals
1 106.91161 2.010268
2 107.40512 1.110503
3 107.89864 -4.133012
4 108.39215 -4.595277
5 108.88567 2.036208
6 109.37918 3.136443
7 109.8727 0.892928
8 110.36621 0.430663
9 110.85973 -0.937852
10 111.35324 -0.837617
11 111.84676 1.918867
12 112.34027 1.456602
13 112.83379 -0.911913
14 113.3273 -0.811678
15 113.82082 -0.055193
16 114.31433 0.482542
17 114.80785 -1.885973
18 115.30136 -1.785738
19 115.79488 2.970747
20 116.28839 -0.491518

Preț – Perioada 4
VV 1 VV 4 VV (p4*q1)
13.00 1000 1430 1300
18.00 1320 1134 1080
27.00 1872 1674 1944
Cant. – Perioada 4
4192 4238 4324
110.00
63.00
62.00
 yt  2
 yt 1  yt  yt 1 
2
8 0
1

3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Significance F
1.345E-05

Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
104.3178 108.5184 104.3178 108.5184
0.318188 0.668842 0.318188 0.668842
 Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4
Year 1 100 105 125 95
Year 2 102 109 132 102
Year 3 101 107 135 105
Year 4 103 109 135 106
Year 5 104 110 140 107
Year 6

Years Quarters Sales Y MM Dif Medie

Y1 Q1 100 -9.2
Q2 105 -3.8
Q3 125 106.5 18.5 20.9
Q4 95 107.3 -12.3 -9.1
Y2 Q1 102 108.6 -6.6 -1.2
Q2 109 110.4 -1.4
Q3 132 111.1 20.9
Q4 102 110.8 -8.8
Y3 Q1 101 110.9 -9.9
Q2 107 111.6 -4.6
Q3 135 112.3 22.8
Q4 105 112.8 -7.8
Y4 Q1 103 113.0 -10.0
Q2 109 113.1 -4.1
Q3 135 113.4 21.6
Q4 106 113.6 -7.6
Y5 Q1 104 114.4 -10.4
Q2 110 115.1 -5.1
Q3 140
Q4 107
Y6 Q1 107.9
Q2 113.8
Q3 139.0
Q4 109.5
 Preț – Perioada Preț – Preț – Perioada
Produs
1 Perioada 2 3
A 10.00   12   13
B 22.00 20    21
C 26.00   25 27 
Cant. – Cant. – Cant. – Perioada
Produs
Perioada 1 Perioada 2 3
A 100.00 110  105 
B 60.00 65    66
C 72.00 70   65 
Indice VV 1.0110 1.10%

Indice VV (Lp) 1.0315 3.15%

Indice VV (Pq) 0.9801 -1.99%

 You receive the quarterly sales for the second most important product of the
company, for the last 5 years. In order to decide on the next year strategy you
are asked to produce a sales forecast for the next 4 quarters (year 6)!

yt  2
 yt 
8 0
yˆ tTMM  2
Y X
Coef sez Y Desezonalizat t
-8.92 108.92 1 150
-3.52 108.52 2
21.23 103.77 3 140
-8.80 103.80 4
0.00 110.92 5 130
112.52 6
110.77 7 120

110.80 8
110
109.92 9
110.52 10 100
113.77 11
113.80 12 90
111.92 13
112.52 14 80
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
113.77 15
114.80 16
112.92 17
113.52 18
118.77 19
115.80 20
116.78 21
117.28 22
117.77 23
118.26 24
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.812526
R Square 0.660199
Adjusted R 0.641321
Standard E 2.152038
Observatio 20

ANOVA
df SS
Regression 1 161.9655
 Residual 18 83.36285
Total 19 245.3283

Coefficients
Standard Error
Intercept 106.4181 0.99969
t 0.493515 0.083452

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation
Predicted Y Desezonalizat
Residuals
1 106.9116 2.010268
2 107.4051 1.110503
3 107.8986 -4.133012
4 108.3922 -4.595277
5 108.8857 2.036208
6 109.3792 3.136443
7 109.8727 0.892928
8 110.3662 0.430663
9 110.8597 -0.937852
10 111.3532 -0.837617
11 111.8468 1.918867
12 112.3403 1.456602
13 112.8338 -0.911913
14 113.3273 -0.811678
15 113.8208 -0.055193
16 114.3143 0.482542
17 114.8078 -1.885973
18 115.3014 -1.785738
19 115.7949 2.970747
20 116.2884 -0.491518

Preț – Perioada 4
VV1 VV4 VV(p4*q1)VV(P4*q1)
13.00 1000 1430 1300 1100
18.00 1320 1134 1080 1386
27.00 1872 1674 1944 1612
Cant. – Perioada 4
4192 4238 4324 4098
110.00
63.00
62.00
 yt  2 y
 yt 1  yt  yt 1  t  2
yˆ tTMM  2 2
8 0

41

4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

MS F Significance F
161.9655 34.97215 1.345E-05
 4.63127

t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
106.4511 1.178E-26 104.3178 108.5184 104.3178 108.5184
5.913726 1.345E-05 0.318188 0.668842 0.318188 0.668842
 Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4
Year 1 100 105 125 95 You receive the quarte
Year 2 102 109 132 102 company, for the last
you are asked to prod
Year 3 101 107 135 105
Year 4 103 109 135 106
Year 5 104 110 140 107
Year 6

Years Quarters Sales Y MM Dif Medie Abateri sez

Y1 Q1 100 -9.22 -8.9
Q2 105 -3.81 -3.5
Q3 125 106.5 18.5 20.9 21.2
Q4 95 107.3 -12.3 -9.09 -8.8
Y2 Q1 102 108.6 -6.6 -1.19 0.0
Q2 109 110.4 -1.4
Q3 132 111.1 20.9
Q4 102 110.8 -8.8
Y3 Q1 101 110.9 -9.9
Q2 107 111.6 -4.6
Q3 135 112.3 22.8
Q4 105 112.8 -7.8
Y4 Q1 103 113.0 -10.0
Q2 109 113.1 -4.1
Q3 135 113.4 21.6
Q4 106 113.6 -7.6
Y5 Q1 104 114.4 -10.4
Q2 110 115.1 -5.1
Q3 140
Q4 107
Y6 Q1 107.9
Q2 113.8
Q3 139.0
Q4 109.5
 Preț – Perioada Preț – Preț – Perioada
Produs Preț – Perioada 4
1 Perioada 2 3
A 10.00   12   13 13.00
B 22.00 20    21 18.00
C 26.00   25 27  27.00
Cant. – Cant. – Cant. – Perioada
Produs Cant. – Perioada 4
Perioada 1 Perioada 2 3
A 100.00 110  105  110.00
B 60.00 65    66 63.00
C 72.00 70   65  62.00

Index VV 1.0110 1.10%

Index VV (Lp) 1.0315 3.15%

Index VV (Pq) 0.98011 -1.99%

1.0110
You receive the quarterly sales for the second most important product of the
company, for the last 5 years. In order to decide on the next year strategy
you are asked to produce a sales forecast for the next 4 quarters (year 6)!

yt  2 y
 yt 1  yt  yt 1  t  2
x Y yˆ tTMM  28 0 2 1

t Serie Desezonalizata 4
1 108.9 106.9116 140
2 108.5 107.4051
3 103.8 107.8986 130
4 103.8 108.3922
5 110.9 108.8857 120
6 112.5 109.3792
7 110.8 109.8727 110
8 110.8 110.3662
9 109.9 110.8597
100
10 110.5 111.3532
11 113.8 111.8468
90
12 113.8 112.3403
13 111.9 112.8338
80
14 112.5 113.3273 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
15 113.8 113.8208
16 114.8 114.3143
17 112.9 114.8078
18 113.5 115.3014
19 118.8 115.7949
20 115.8 116.2884
21 116.7819
22 117.2754 SUMMARY OUTPUT
23 117.7689
24 118.2625 Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.812526
R Square 0.660199
Adjusted R 0.641321
Standard E 2.152038
Observatio 20

ANOVA
df SS MS F
Regression 1 161.9655 161.9655 34.97215
Residual 18 83.36285 4.63127
Total 19 245.3283

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value
 Intercept 106.4181 0.99969 106.4511 1.178E-26
t 0.493515 0.083452 5.913726 1.345E-05

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation
Predicted Serie Desezonalizata
Residuals
1 106.9116 2.010268
2 107.4051 1.110503
3 107.8986 -4.133012
4 108.3922 -4.595277
5 108.8857 2.036208
6 109.3792 3.136443
7 109.8727 0.892928
8 110.3662 0.430663
9 110.8597 -0.937852
10 111.3532 -0.837617
11 111.8468 1.918867
12 112.3403 1.456602
13 112.8338 -0.911913
14 113.3273 -0.811678
15 113.8208 -0.055193
16 114.3143 0.482542
17 114.8078 -1.885973
18 115.3014 -1.785738
19 115.7949 2.970747
20 116.2884 -0.491518

VV1 VV4 VV (p4*Q1) VV (p1*Q4)

1000 1430 1300 1300
1320 1134 1080 1080
1872 1674 1944 1944

4192 4238 4324 4324

 yt  2
yt 1 
1 2

2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Significance F
1.345E-05

Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
104.3178 108.5184 104.3178 108.5184
0.318188 0.668842 0.318188 0.668842
 Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4
Year 1 100 105 125 95 You receive the quarterly sales for
Year 2 102 109 132 102 of the company, for the last 5 yea
Year 3 101 107 135 105 strategy you are asked to produce
Year 4 103 109 135 106 quarters (year 6)!
Year 5 104 110 140 107
Year 6

x
Difference Quarter Sales t MA Dif (i) Average Dif Q Corrected Seasonal Coeff
90.25 Q1 100 1
72.25 Q2 105 2
56.25 Q3 125 3 106.5 18.5 -9.22 Q1 average
42.25 Q4 95 4 107.3 -12.3 -3.81 Q2 average
30.25 Q1 102 5 108.6 -6.6 20.94 Q3 average
20.25 Q2 109 6 110.4 -1.4 -9.09 Q4 average
12.25 Q3 132 7 111.1 20.9
6.25 Q4 102 8 110.8 -8.8 -1.19
2.25 Q1 101 9 110.9 -9.9
0.25 Q2 107 10 111.6 -4.6
0.25 Q3 135 11 112.3 22.8
2.25 Q4 105 12 112.8 -7.8
6.25 Q1 103 13 113.0 -10.0
12.25 Q2 109 14 113.1 -4.1
20.25 Q3 135 15 113.4 21.6
30.25 Q4 106 16 113.6 -7.6
42.25 Q1 104 17 114.4 -10.4
56.25 Q2 110 18 115.1 -5.1
72.25 Q3 140 19
90.25 Q4 107 20 LL*** UL***
Q1 107.86 21 103.19 112.53
Q2 113.76 22 109.09 118.43
Q3 139.00 23 134.34 143.67
Q4 109.47 24 104.80 114.13

10.5 665
Margin of err
SUMMARY OUTPUT S err * t value 4.6676
S err of predic 2.221701703
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.812526193535 95% CL
R Square 0.66019881518 t value 2.10092204
Adjusted R S 0.641320971579
Standard Erro2.152038489847
Observations 20 Var 4.935958455

ANOVA
 df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 161.9655 161.9655 34.9721519645 1.34545E-05
Residual 18 83.36285 4.63127
Total 19 245.3283

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%

Intercept 106.4180921053 0.99969 106.4511 1.1779544E-26 104.3178222
t 0.493515037594 0.083452 5.913726 1.3454494E-05 0.318187897
You receive the quarterly sales for the second most important product
of the company, for the last 5 years. In order to decide on the next year
strategy you are asked to produce a sales forecast for the next 4
quarters (year 6)!

y
150
Corrected Seasonal Coeff
Dsez Trend
108.92 106.91
140
108.52 107.41
-8.92 103.77 107.90 130
-3.52 103.80 108.39
21.23 110.92 108.89 120
-8.80 112.52 109.38
110.77 109.87 110
0.00 110.80 110.37
109.92 110.86 100
110.52 111.35
113.77 111.85 90
113.80 112.34
111.92 112.83 80
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q
112.52 113.33
113.77 113.82
114.80 114.31
112.92 114.81
113.52 115.30 yt  2 y
118.77 115.79  yt 1  yt  yt 1  t
115.80 116.29 yˆ tTMM  2 2
116.78 103.1924 112.5277 4
117.28 109.0922 118.4274
117.77 134.3357 143.6709
118.26 104.798 114.1332

*** You need to update the margin of error for each Quarter
gnificance F

Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
108.5184 104.3178 108.51836
0.668842 0.318188 0.6688422
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

yt  2
yt 1  yt  yt 1 
2
4