DHARMASHASTRA NATIONAL LAW UNIVERSITY,

JABALPUR

Academic Year - 2021-22

SUBJECT - ECONOMICS

TOPIC - “Post Ukraine-Russia War World Order”

SUBMITTED BY - MADHAV SONI SUBMITTED TO - Prof. ISHA

ENROLMENT NO. - BAL/124/19 WADHWA
SEMESTER - 6th (ASSISTANT PROFESSOR OF
SECTION - ‘A’ ECONOMICS)

 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I would like to express my Special thanks of gratitude to the Vice Chancellor Prof.
(Dr.) V. NAGARAJ, Prof. ISHA WADHWA (ASSISTANT PROFESSOR OF
ECONOMICS) who gave me the golden opportunity to do this wonderful Project on
the topic “Post Ukraine-Russia War World Order” and appreciate me to do
the same in a Good manner, which also helped me in doing a lot of Research, by this
I came to know about so many new things. I am really thankful to you all.
Secondly I would also like to thank every individual who assisted me in any manner
during this research.

MADHAV SONI

 TABLE OF CONTENT

S. NO. TITLE PAGE NO.

1 Abstract 4

2 Research Question 5

3 Research Objective 5

4 Hypothesis 5

5 Research Methodology 5

6 CHAPTER - I - Introduction 6

7 CHAPTER - II - HISTORICAL BACKGROUND & FACTORS 10

BEHIND THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR
8 CHAPTER - III - INDIA’S STAND ON RUSSIA-UKRAINE 12
WAR
9 CHAPTER - IV - NATO’S STAND ON RUSSIA-UKRAINE 15
WAR
10 CHAPTER - V - Conclusion 17

11 Bibliography 18

ABSTRACT

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has abruptly transformed the world. Millions of people have already
fled. Anew Iron Curtain is grinding into place. An economic war deepens, as the military conflict
escalates, civilian casualties rise and evidence of horrific war crimes mounts. It's our job at the
Guardian to decipher a rapidly changing landscape, particularly when it involves a mounting
refugee crisis and the risk of unthinkable escalation Our correspondents are on the ground in
Ukraine and throughout the globe delivering round-the-clock reporting and analysis during this
perilous situation.

 RESEARCH QUESTION

• What are the factors which initiated the Russia-Ukraine War ?

• How World Order is affected by the Russia-Ukraine War ?
• How Global Powers reacted on the Russia-Ukraine War ?

RESEARCH OBJECTIVE

• The objective of this research is, to Critically analyse the factors which initiated the Russia-
Ukraine War.
• Secondly, In this research I tried to figure out that How World Order is affected by the Russia-
Ukraine War.
• Thirdly, In this research I have analysed How Global Powers reacted on the Russia-Ukraine War.

HYPOTHESIS

“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has declined the existing world order by destroying the
chain of Global Energy, Production, Distribution, and Financial systems of the
World.”

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

1. Secondary Resources - for collecting the secondary data, I referred some research paper and
articles of various writer on the Online Search Engine Like Google, SSC Online etc.

2. This is a Non-Doctrinal Research, where Secondary Data is used in the Research to meet the
finding with the help of compiled data which was collected from various sources.

3. Method of Citation used in this Research is taken from Blue Book 20th Edition.

1. Chapter I - INTRODUCTION
Since Russia's full-scale military invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, fighting has resulted in
over 900 civilian casualties and displaced millions of Ukrainians, the majority of whom have come
in Poland, a NATO country where US troops are poised to aid refugees. In October 2021, Russia
began mobilising troops and military equipment along Ukraine's border, reigniting concerns of an
attack.. Armor, rockets, and other heavy armament were seen travelling into Ukraine in November
and December 2021, according to commercial satellite images, social media reports, and publicly
available intelligence. By December, over a thousand Russian troops were stationed near the
Russia-Ukraine border, and US intel agencies warned that Russia may be planning an attack for
early 2022.
In mid-December 2021, Russia's foreign ministry issued a set of demands, urging that the US and
NATO cease all military activity in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, commit to no further NATO
expansion toward Russia, and prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. These suggestions were
rebuffed by the US and other NATO allies, who warned Russia that if it attacked Ukraine, it would
face serious economic consequences. Ammunition, small arms, and other defensive equipment were
among the military supplies delivered by the United States to Ukraine.
In order to counter Russian forces positioned near Ukraine's border while also assuring NATO
allies, US President Joe Biden authorised roughly 3,000 US troops to deploy to Poland and
Romania (NATO nations bordering Ukraine) in early February 2022. Satellite images revealed
Russia's greatest force deployment near its border with Belarus since the conclusion of the Cold
War. The United States, Russia, and European nations, especially France and Germany, were unable
to reach an agreement. While Russia issued a statement claiming to have reduced the number of
troops on its border with Ukraine, allegations emerged of an increased Russian force presence.
The US warned in late February 2022 that Russia was planning an invasion of Ukraine, citing
Russia's increased military posture along the Russian-Ukraine border. Russian President Vladimir
Putin then dispatched soldiers to the rebel regions of Luhansk and Donetsk, which are partly held
by Russian-backed separatists in Eastern Ukraine, stating that the forces were needed for
"peacekeeping." A few days later US sanctions were placed on the Luhansk and Donetsk regions,
and the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Putin announced the start of a full-scale land, sea, and air
invasion of Ukraine on February 24, at a United Nations Security Council meeting aimed at
discouraging Russia from striking Ukraine. Biden called the strike "unprovoked and unjustified,"
and placed tough penalties on four of Russia's major banks, the nation's oil and gas industry, and
U.S. technology exports to the country in conjunction with European allies.
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The United Nations, the G7, the EU, and other nations have all condemned Russian activities and
backed Ukrainian forces. In an extraordinary session, 141 of the UN's 193 memberstates agreed
unanimously denounce Russia's incursion of Ukraine and urge that it halt deploying force in
Ukraine immediately. The US has slapped escalating sanctions on Putin and Russia's foreign
minister, Sergey Lavrov, including the exclusion of Russian institutions from the global SWIFT
financial messaging system and the prohibition of US imports of Russian oil and natural gas. After
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's March 16 address to Congress, Vice President Joe
Biden announced an extra $800 million in military aid to Ukraine.. Biden also authorised 7,000 US
soldiers shortly after Russia's invasion deployed to Russia.

2. Chapter II - HISTORICAL BACKGROUND & FACTORS BEHIND THE

RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR

1. Russia – an emerging energy giant After the collapse of the Union of Soviet Socialist
Republics (USSR) in the early 1990s and then, after several years of economic strife and
internal strife, President Vladimir Putin's leadership finally ensured that Russia Now seen as an
energy. The giant has become the world's third largest producer of oil and second largest
producer of natural gas. Russia is understood to have used energy revenues to accumulate
about $630 billion in foreign exchange reserves. For example, in the year 2021, Russia has
balanced its budget with a relatively low oil price averaging about $45 a barrel, averaging
around $70 a barrel. For the past few months, both print and electronic media all over the
world started speculating about every possibility of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. The United
States of America (US) also began reporting that an invasion of Ukraine by Russia was
imminent. Thus, the administration of US President Joe Biden insisted that threats of "serious
economic consequences" would deter Russia from invading Ukraine. During President Biden's
meeting with the German Chancellor on February 07, 2022, the US and its allies were seen
emphasizing that Russia was indeed united on the consequences of invading Ukraine.
However, it was also prevalent that the European Union (EU) had a symbiotic relationship with
the US/UK internal politics, as well as with Russia, may undercut this proclaimed solidarity .
Number of Central European countries and Germany in particular , who are largely dependent
on Russia for its cheap energy needs and in turn competitive manufacturing exports could
though silently , be reluctant to side with the US sanctions on Russia .

2. Europe's Over Reliance on Russia's Energy Exports - While Russia depends on revenue
from Europe , the latter depends on supply of energy from Russia . Overall , Russia was
supplying about one - third of European natural gas consumption , used for heating in the winter
as well as electricity generation and industrial production . The EU also depends on Russia for
more than one - quarter of its crude oil imports . Russia had , thus , turned out as the largest
single energy source for this bloc of Nations Due to this inter - dependence , imposing tougher
sanctions on Russia is going to make a serious dent in its energy supplies and thus eventually
the dependent European countries will be the sufferers . In fact , few EU States are far more
dependent than others . While Portugal and Spain use little Russian energy Germany , the

 largest European economy , was getting more than half its natural gas and over 30 percent of its
crude oil supplies from Russia . France gets most of its electricity from nuclear power ; but
relied on imports from Russia to meet its fossil fuel needs . Further , plans of Germany and
other countries to phase out nuclear and coal power in times ahead , would have only further
increased this dependence on Russia for energy supply .

3. America's Multiple Attempts at Curbing Russia- Europe Pipeline Projects from JFK to
Reagan - When one looks back in time , it becomes evident that such a dependence on Russian
energy has not happened overnight . The US has been speculating since a long time about
Russian willingness to use trade to tie the hands of other countries - a concern dating back to
the early days of the Cold War . After the second World War , both the USSR and the US started
to lock horns while trying to expand their hegemony to influence countries and get them into
their fold who were not formally aligned with either superpower . The Soviet Union began to
extend favourable trade deals and offered other economic assistance to not only Warsaw Pact
countries , but also reached out to other countries such as Finland , the United Arab Republic as
also India in manner that created sustained dependence on Soviet Union . Thus , as the Soviet
Union began developing oil and gas pipelines to Europe , the resultant increasing energy
dependence on it by Nations in the region became a matter of great concern for US . Western
Europe imported six percent of its oil only from the Soviet Union in the 1960s . The new
planned oil pipeline connecting the Russian far East and going through several European
countries such as Ukraine and Poland finally terminating in Germany , was bound to increase
the supplies manifold . This increased dependence was to definitely give significant coercive
power to the Soviet Union . Thus , these changing dynamics raised strategic concerns and rang
the alarm bells in Washington .

4. The Kennedy administration in the year 1963 had attempted to stall construction of the
Druzhba or " Friendship , " Oil Pipeline by imposing an embargo on the wide - diameter
pipe to Soviet - aligned countries . As this embargo alone was not enough to stop the project ,
the US pressured the allies especially West Germany , a major pipe exporter to join hands .
Though Britain refused to toe the US line ; but somehow West Germany reluctantly agreed
which ensured a partial NATO embargo . However , notwithstanding this partial embargo , the
pipeline finally got completed one year later . Later , after a span of nearly two decades
interestingly the Reagan administration too faced a similar dilemma . In 1981 , when the Soviet
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 Union commenced building a natural gas pipeline from Siberia going into Western Europe , the
US once again tried to persuade the European allies such as France and Germany to join its
embargo on not only providing pipeline equipment for the project , but financing as well . But
when all these countries refused to comply with the US dictates , it then responded with
sanctions to dissuade the European companies from providing money or equipment for the
project . However , this arbitrary action by the US led to strained relationship amongst the
Western Nations , sowing seeds of division between the US and Europe . This compelled the
US to retreat and lift the sanctions imposed within few months of its imposition . The pipeline
eventually got completed three years later in 1984 .

5. Energy Security - An Effective Foreign Policy Tool Unlike his predecessors who refrained
from shutting off energy exports , President Vladimir Putin smartly merged his economic policy
with geopolitical objectives . For example , Ukraine continued to receive the same heavily
subsidised gas shipments from Russia in the early 2000s as it did when it was part of the Soviet
Union a decade earlier . However , when the " Orange Revolution " near the end of 2004 led to
the ouster of a pro - Russian leader , replacing him with one who sought closer ties with the
West , the Russian Gas corporation , Gazprom immediately demanded Ukraine to pay market
rates for its gas . However , when Ukraine refused to comply , Russia restricted the flow of gas
through the pipelines leaving just enough to fulfil its contracts with other countries in Western
Europe . This move by Russia , besides putting economic pressure on the pro - Western
government in Kyiv , was also used as the basis for claims that Ukraine was an unreliable gas
transit country . This narrative thus helped build support for a new pipeline named Nord Stream
which directly channelled gas from Russia to Germany .

6. The Crisis in Ukraine - An American Attempt at Stopping Nord Stream 2 Now Nord Stream
2 , which is an expansion of the original Nord Stream pipeline , was approved by the German
government in 2018 and its construction was completed in September 2021. Its launch ,
however faced regulatory delays due to pressure from the US on European politicians . Once
functional , Nord Stream 2 would have ensured higher levels of export of Russia's natural gas to
Germany bypassing Ukraine and other current countries through which the pipelines currently
transit . This had added to US worries as Russia would perhaps no longer could be held hostage
by pro - West countries such as Poland and Ukraine of Eastern Europe for its energy exports

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7. A Small Window of Opportunity - for the US and Ukraine The operationalization of the
pipeline in Nord Stream2 , thus , would have been devastating for Ukraine . In fact , to
summarise , Nord Stream 2 is seen as Russia's most daring attempt to break up the EU . Russia
has always been making efforts to form an alliance with Germany and Austria as also with
Netherlands and Belgium against Eastern and Northern Europe . Germany's Minister of
Economy and Energy had made a very clear statement in October 2015 that Nord Stream 2
project was in their interest and they would continue to pursue it to finality . This reported
remark coming just weeks after the announcement of Nord Stream 2 in mid - 2015 , did not
leave any doubt that Germany considered it as their geopolitical project . Germany stood to gain
$ 2 billion as transit fees every year . In January this year alone while in the middle of this
whole crisis , Russia signed energy agreements with Hungary as well to further incentivise
Germany and Austria with lucrative potential transit fees which could come from such an
agreement between Russia and Hungary .

8. The Real Intent Behind the ongoing Manoeuvres - As to what these " bold manoeuvres "
maybe , one can only make a guess from the actions by Russia and the US rather than their
words . With Moscow declaring separatist regions of Luhansk and Donetsk as being recognised
as independent countries , Russia believes that Kyiv has been planning to use this window of
opportunity to mount a military offensive to retake these separatist regions and unilaterally try
to break the agreements made under the Minsk Accord. Russian troops thus, moved into the
Donbass region on 24 th February to deter Kyiv from launching an offensive against the
breakaway states . The Russian military also carried out a series of precision strikes taking out
Ukrainian military infrastructure and air defence systems . Russia may have finally decided to
take this drastic step since the US has already responded to the Russian declaration of February
22 , 2022 by pressuring their German counterparts to stall the operationalization process of the
Nord Stream 2 project . The goal behind the media propaganda blitz by the Western Media has
been to essentially isolate and vilify Russia on the International stage , stop it from building
deeper ties with Europe , paint it as an out - of - control rogue state and Russian borders .
continue to expand the presence of NATO eastwards , closer and closer to Besides the above -
mentioned goals , the pressure created through rhetoric of western media and arm twisting from
the US has finally succeeded in mustering enough political will within the EU to stall the
progress on Nord stream 2 project altogether . So , it seems like the Americans have come out
on top , and have successfully managed to achieve their objective of reducing the Europe's
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energy market's dependence on Russian Oil and Gas , even when it would turn out to be a costly
option for European countries especially Germany .

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3. Chapter III - INDIA’S STAND ON RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR
India has always maintained a "steadfast and consistent" position on the Russia-Ukraine war, as per
which it has called for an immediate end to violence and to solve crisis via talks and diplomacy,
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said on Thursday. He said India has always maintained that
the global order is anchored on international law, UN charter and respect for territorial integrity and
sovereignty of states. Meanwhile, Quad members including Australia, Japan and the United States
have stopped buying Russian oil, though India (the 4th Quad grouping member) continues to
purchase Russian oil. India has also abstained from voting against Russia at United Nations, though
it has consistently advocated ending the war and redressal of issues via talks. The number of
Ukrainian refugees is approaching four million. They will pose severe challenges to a Europe not
used to anything like it since WWII. Many of these refugees may seek asylum, because their homes
and workplaces have been destroyed.
NATO Europe, convinced that Russia could attack beyond Ukraine, will keep arming itself, and the
sanctions on Russia will not be lifted. The nuclear threat will only grow from both sides. The only
long-term solution may be to roll back NATO from all the former Soviet protectorates. Europe will
have to take the lead in this, because America may prefer to play hard-ball because of its military
vested interests, and because of its location across a capacious Atlantic.
The Russians stranded abroad will however be able to make their way back home, despite problems
being faced after a sudden cut-off of their money supply because of the sanctions.
All this turmoil in Europe will have only a limited impact on India. The US has stated, and is on
record, that it understands India’s special military relationship with Russia, and is reluctant to
impose sanctions for its importation of the portable S-400 surface-to-air missile systems. This, even
though it sanctioned NATO member Turkey for the same purchase.
India has not only placed orders for several batteries of the S400, but is in talks to purchase the
S500 Prometheus systems as well. These missile shields are considered to be the best in the world at
present. There are a number of other ongoing military collaborations with Russia, for the
manufacture of nuclear submarines, fighter aircraft, India’s aircraft carrier programme, its missile
programmes, and so on. This is in addition to a strong impetus given to
India’s aatmanirbhar hardware manufacturing in defence, and inclusive of electronics, IT, cyber-
jockeying, AI, all interconnected in today’s security calculus.
On the other hand, India’s criticality as a US partner in the Indian Ocean and Asia-Pacific region,
bilaterally, and as a member of Quad has great significance.

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 India is seen as the only large military power that can be seen as a counter to Chinese ambitions in
the region. This is naturally of paramount consideration for an American public opinion wary of
direct involvement in theatres far away from its own shores. The Vietnam and Korean wars of a
previous generation are not forgotten, let alone the recent inconclusive involvements in Iraq and
Afghanistan. Supplying military equipment is one thing, but getting involved with nuclear-
weaponised powers with more body bags streaming back home will destroy any American political
leadership.
Such complex and overlapping concerns in the current geopolitical situation must be carefully
weighed, and the responses calibrated on both sides. But it also means greater strategic autonomy
for a nuclear weaponised India to suit its own best purpose and self-interest, without any effective
Western bullying.

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4. Chapter IV - NATO’S STAND ON RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR

Russia's attack on Ukraine illustrates an essential and extremely frightening reality. Specifically, the
West's incapacity to militarily attack Russia, unless nuclear weapons are used. Moreover, while the
sanctions have had little impact on Russia's military and economic capabilities, they have had a
reverberating effect on the alliance's political and economic conditions.
Despite all the justifications offered by Russia as to how it is trying to defend its national security, it
has become clear that advance weapons (i.e. military power) dictate conduct in international
relations after four months of the war that Russia is currently fighting against Ukraine, which is an
illegal war that ever enters the classification of aggression on a sovereign state, despite all the
rationales offered by Russia as to how it is trying to defend its public safety, and it's becoming
evident that advance weapons ( military power) that dictate
In the face of the Russian military assault, NATO's helplessness and restricted maneuver room were
apparent. Initially, there was discussion of NATO intervening militarily to safeguard a member who
is a contender for admission in the Alliance, but this option was dismissed because Ukraine is not a
NATO member. Another effort was to impose a no-fly zone to stop Russian aircraft from striking
Ukrainian armed units, but this idea was also denied under the guise of avoiding a clash with Russia
and preventing the outbreak of a third global war. The unwillingness to send Russian-made fighter
planes via Poland to Ukraine was explained in the same way.
In truth, this isn't about putting an end to a conflict. NATO has fought several conflicts in the past.
The military involvement in Serbia in 1999, the battle against terrorism in Afghanistan in 2002, the
US military involvement in Iraq in 2003, the fight against ISIL in Iraq and Syria in 2015, and the
intervention to topple Muammar Gaddafi's regime in Libya in 2011 are all on the list. Under the
guise of protecting European security from terrorism, European military commanded by France are
deployed in Mali, Africa, thousands of kilometres distant from Europe.
In the case of Ukraine, NATO now lacks the power to challenge Russia in Europe, despite the fact
that it feels the current conflict is a real threat to Europe because it is taking place within Europe's
borders and directly attacks its security. With the exclusion of nuclear weapons, NATO presently
lacks the military capability and armaments to combat Russia's non-nuclear weapons. Many
Western military analysts believe that if NATO had adequate military capacity to compel Russia to
withdrawal from Ukraine, it would have used it in the Crimea crisis in 2014 in the name of
international law protection, rather than waiting for the present war in Ukraine to erupt.
NATO lacks military equipment, both at the level of state militaries and at the level of US military
presence on the European continent. Despite the seriousness of the situation on the European
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continent, for example, there is still just one US aircraft carrier in European seas, the Harry Truman.
Specifically, in the Mediterranean Sea near Italian shores, rather than the Baltic Sea, where the
situation is extremely concerning. If the situation worsens and the battle crosses over into NATO
member states like Poland or Romania, NATO would be content to oppose Russian forces by
intercepting their planes and missiles rather than striking Russian soldiers on Ukrainian soil.

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5. Chapter V - Conclusion
While the United States and its allies pat itself on the back for using sanctions to restrict Putin, a
new world order has emerged, driven primarily by national self-interest, with the UN's failure once
again exposed and the country asserting its interests above international comity. Stock markets have
sunk, petroleum products prices have risen, and sanctions placed on Russia by the United States and
its allies have wreaked havoc on global finance and harmed the global economy. The cost of
Russia's debased misadventure in Ukraine, as well as the reaction to it, will have a long-term impact
on the global economy in our post-pandemic era. Furthermore, the collapse of Ukraine wouldn't be
as big of a victory for Russia as it will be for the West. Putin is the result of America's and its allies'
inability to safeguard the global rules-based system. International diplomacy and multilateralism
have failed. Putin triumphs not because he is powerful, as the bungled Russian incursion into
Ukraine demonstrates, and because no one decided to stand up to him when they had the
opportunity. The new precedent has really been established, culminating in a new worldwide
doctrine: a powerful country can attack another.

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BIBLIOGRAPHY

I. United Nations Security Council Resolution 2623 https://www.un.org/press/en/2022/sc14809

II. United Nations Security Council Resolution https://www.un.org/press/en/2022/sc14810

III. Major Non-NATO Ally (MNNA) www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/

IV. Daily Sabah https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/diplomacy/russia-should-give- negotiations-

a-real-chance-ankara-says

V. Russia Is Now the World’s Most Sanctioned Country www.castellum.ai/insights/russia- is-

now-the-worlds-most-sanctioned-country

VI. IFIMES – The International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) from
Ljubljana, Slovenia,(ECOSOC)/UN since 2018.

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