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Utilities Stock Guide: Weekly
Utilities Stock Guide: Weekly
Utilities Stock Guide: Weekly
YE11 Fair Current Market 3m avg. P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/Net RAB (x)*** EV/avg. MW (x)**** Dividend yield %
Upside/
Company Ticker Rating** Value Price WACC Cap Daily value
Downside
(R$) (R$) (R$ M) (R$ Th) 2010e 2011e 2012e 2010e 2011e 2012e 2010e 2011e 2012e 2010e 2011e 2012e 2010e* 2011e 2012e
Generation 24% 10.6% 35,258 47,275 12.6 10.5 8.9 6.9 5.9 5.2 - - - 5.0 4.6 4.4 3.3% 7.4% 8.1%
AES Tietê GETI4 OP 26.80 21.75 23% 9.1% 7,552 8,260 9.8 9.1 8.5 5.9 5.5 5.2 - - - 6.5 6.2 6.1 5.2% 11.0% 11.8%
Cesp CESP6 OP 32.50 25.87 26% 12.2% 7,749 17,150 14.2 9.7 8.0 6.7 5.4 4.7 - - - 3.0 2.7 2.5 1.2% 7.1% 7.1%
MPX MPXE3 OP 34.00 29.25 16% 10.9% 3,998 11,649 nm nm nm nm nm nm - - - nm nm nm nm nm nm
Tractebel TBLE3 MP 32.00 24.45 31% 10.4% 15,960 10,216 13.8 12.6 10.3 8.1 6.8 5.7 - - - 5.4 4.9 4.6 3.5% 4.2% 5.6%
Transmission 14% 8.4% 7,529 6,838 9.7 9.4 9.1 7.1 7.1 6.6 - - - - - - 7.3% 10.1% 10.4%
ISA Cteep TRPL4 UP 57.50 50.60 14% 8.4% 7,529 6,838 9.7 9.4 9.1 7.1 7.1 6.6 - - - - - - 7.3% 10.1% 10.4%
Distribution 28% 11.5% 8,866 25,905 5.0 5.7 6.4 3.8 11.8 4.2 1.4 1.6 1.4 - - - 8.7% 5.2% 9.5%
Celesc CLSC6 UP 46.00 35.04 31% 12.7% 1,352 667 4.5 4.5 3.6 2.8 2.9 2.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 - - - 5.6% 5.6% 7.0%
Coelce COCE5 UP 36.50 27.53 33% 11.7% 2,171 1,086 5.3 7.0 7.1 4.2 5.5 5.1 1.8 2.0 1.7 - - - 13.2% 10.0% 9.8%
Eletropaulo ELPL6 UP 38.30 31.94 20% 10.1% 5,343 24,152 5.2 neg 8.5 4.4 27.1 5.6 1.7 1.9 1.8 - - - 7.4% 0.0% 11.8%
Integrated 44% 11.5% 82,976 153,287 9.9 8.6 7.7 5.9 5.2 4.7 -2.1 -2.0 -1.8 6.4 5.5 5.4 4.3% 5.3% 6.1%
EDP ENBR3 OP 50.40 36.50 38% 11.0% 5,786 11,935 10.0 9.7 8.6 5.4 4.8 4.2 1.9 1.6 1.4 5.6 4.9 4.3 5.0% 5.2% 5.8%
Eletrobrás ON ELET3 OP 47.20 21.45 120% 12.5% 25,245 19,591 5.8 5.3 5.1 3.5 3.7 4.0 -26.0 -24.8 -22.6 1.3 1.5 1.7 6.3% 5.2% 5.4%
Eletrobrás PN ELET6 OP 47.20 25.65 84% 12.5% 25,245 19,030 7.1 6.4 6.2 4.1 4.2 4.4 -24.1 -23.0 -20.7 1.5 1.7 1.9 5.3% 4.3% 4.5%
Equatorial EQTL3 UP 10.70 10.60 1% 10.6% 1,150 3,658 6.1 6.2 5.4 4.1 3.9 3.3 1.4 1.3 1.2 - - - 3.6% 3.9% 5.3%
Cemig CMIG4 MP 37.40 27.47 36% 11.2% 16,674 40,326 12.0 10.6 8.7 6.3 5.5 4.8 1.8 1.6 1.5 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.1% 4.4% 5.4%
Copel CPLE6 OP 53.00 39.27 35% 13.2% 10,330 22,858 12.4 8.0 6.4 8.0 4.8 3.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 3.6 3.4 3.2 1.1% 5.9% 7.5%
CPFL Energia CPFE3 UP 41.90 39.97 5% 9.8% 19,231 19,227 12.3 11.6 13.7 8.0 7.7 8.7 4.9 4.8 4.9 23.9 18.9 19.2 3.9% 8.2% 7.0%
Light LIGT3 MP 30.30 22.36 36% 11.1% 4,560 16,661 10.3 8.9 6.2 5.7 5.7 4.4 0.9 1.0 1.0 -0.9 -0.3 -0.3 4.9% 5.6% 8.0%
Water 14% 9.8% 8,161 11,055 6.4 5.9 4.2 4.9 4.6 3.7 - - - - - - 4.1% 5.0% 6.6%
Sabesp SBSP3 UP 41.00 35.82 14% 9.8% 8,161 11,055 6.4 5.9 4.2 4.9 4.6 3.7 - - - - - - 4.1% 5.0% 6.6%
Electric & Water Utilities Average 33% 11.0% 142,791 244,360 9.2 8.5 7.5 5.7 6.7 4.8 -1.0 -0.9 -0.8 5.9 5.2 5.1 5.1% 6.1% 7.6%
Source: Itaú Securities, Bloomberg
* 2010e dividend yields exclude dividends already declared by the companies
** OP = Outperform, MP = Market-perform, UP = Underperform
*** EV/Net RAB for Intergrated companies were was calculated by assuming an EV/avg. MW for their generation arms of R$4.5 million/avg. MW
**** EV/avg. MW for Intergrated companies were calculated by assuming an EV/net RAB for their distribution arms of 1.5x
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
GETI4 CESP6 MPXE3 TBLE3 TRPL4 CLSC6 COCE5 ELPL6 ENBR3 ELET3 ELET6 EQTL3 CMIG4 CPLE6 CPFE3 LIGT3 SBSP3
3 Months 1 Month
Source: Bloomberg
-2-
Multiples Comparison - Bubble Chart Back to cover
10.0
CPFE3 CPLE6
9.0 TBLE3
8.0 TRPL4
7.0 LIGT3
EV/EBITDA 10E
CMIG4
6.0 GETI4
ENBR3 CESP6
5.0
ELPL6 ELET6
4.0 COCE5
SBSP3
EQTL3 ELET3
3.0 CLSC6
2.0
1.0
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%
5Y EBITDA CAGR
10.0
9.0 CPFE3
7.0 LIGT3
EV/EBITDA 11E
CESP6 GETI4
6.0
CMIG4 SBSP3 ELET6
5.0 COCE5 ENBR3
4.0
CLSC6 EQTL3
3.0
ELET3
2.0
1.0
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%
-3-
Multiples Comparison - Radar Chart Back to cover
AES Tietê (GETI4) Cesp (CESP6) Tractebel (TBLE3) ISA Cteep (TRPL4)
Div Yield 10E EV/Sales 10E Div Yield 10E EV/Sales 10E Div Yield 10E EV/Sales 10E Div Yield 10E EV/Sales 10E
Div Yield 10E EV/Sales 10E Div Yield 10E EV/Sales 10E Div Yield 10E EV/Sales 10E
Div Yield 10E EV/Sales 10E
2y EBITDAg 2y EBITDAg
2y EBITDAg 2y EBITDAg
-4-
Itaú Estimates Back to cover
Balance Sheet GETI4 CESP6 MPXE3 TBLE3 TRPL4 CLSC6 COCE5 ELPL6 ENBR3 ELET3 ELET6 EQTL3 CMIG4 CPLE6 CPFE3 LIGT3 SBSP3
Total Assets (R$ M)
2010 2,178 16,254 3,126 11,922 7,576 4,766 3,404 12,153 11,389 135,971 135,971 3,196 30,357 14,625 18,199 9,397 23,403
2011 2,182 15,687 3,761 11,772 8,802 4,941 3,095 12,045 11,397 137,200 137,200 3,420 30,602 15,147 18,524 10,064 24,646
2012 2,310 15,700 4,028 12,515 9,374 5,274 3,256 12,667 11,747 138,887 138,887 3,644 31,629 16,175 18,856 10,904 26,734
Shareholders' Equity (R$ M)
2010 501 8,970 1,278 4,278 4,225 1,956 1,159 3,280 4,573 78,662 78,662 980 11,057 9,489 5,175 3,097 11,459
2011 501 9,249 1,680 4,883 4,266 2,183 1,250 2,847 4,872 81,463 81,463 1,123 11,975 10,194 5,258 3,352 12,437
2012 501 9,716 1,791 5,552 4,308 2,466 1,340 2,847 5,210 84,375 84,375 1,275 13,102 11,079 5,328 3,718 13,860
DuPont Analysis GETI4 CESP6 MPXE3 TBLE3 TRPL4 CLSC6 COCE5 ELPL6 ENBR3 ELET3 ELET6 EQTL3 CMIG4 CPLE6 CPFE3 LIGT3 SBSP3
Profit Margin
2010 49% 21% - 28% 47% 7% 17% 12% 12% 13% 13% 15% 12% 14% 14% 7% 18%
2011 51% 28% - 29% 43% 7% 13% -5% 11% 14% 14% 14% 14% 19% 14% 8% 18%
2012 52% 32% 23% 33% 40% 7% 11% 6% 12% 13% 13% 14% 15% 21% 11% 11% 22%
Asset Turnover
2010 79% 18% 0% 34% 22% 85% 69% 73% 44% 22% 22% 40% 41% 42% 61% 63% 31%
2011 82% 20% 0% 37% 21% 92% 78% 77% 47% 22% 22% 39% 42% 47% 65% 61% 32%
2012 81% 21% 16% 38% 22% 96% 84% 80% 48% 24% 24% 42% 45% 50% 65% 62% 34%
Financial Leverage
2010 4.3 1.8 2.4 2.8 1.8 2.4 2.9 3.7 2.5 1.7 1.7 3.3 2.7 1.5 3.5 3.0 2.0
2011 4.4 1.7 2.2 2.4 2.1 2.3 2.5 4.2 2.3 1.7 1.7 3.0 2.6 1.5 3.5 3.0 2.0
2012 4.6 1.6 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.4 4.4 2.3 1.6 1.6 2.9 2.4 1.5 3.5 2.9 1.9
Return on Equity (ROE)
2010 168% 7% 0% 27% 19% 15% 35% 31% 13% 5% 5% 19% 14% 9% 30% 14% 11%
2011 182% 9% 0% 26% 19% 14% 24% -15% 12% 5% 5% 17% 15% 13% 32% 15% 11%
2012 195% 11% 8% 28% 20% 15% 22% 22% 13% 5% 5% 17% 17% 15% 26% 20% 14%
Return on Asset (ROA)
2010 39% 4% 0% 10% 10% 6% 12% 8% 5% 3% 3% 6% 5% 6% 9% 5% 5%
2011 42% 6% 0% 11% 9% 6% 10% -4% 5% 3% 3% 5% 6% 9% 9% 5% 6%
2012 42% 7% 4% 12% 9% 7% 9% 5% 6% 3% 3% 6% 7% 10% 7% 7% 7%
Cash Flow GETI4 CESP6 MPXE3 TBLE3 TRPL4 CLSC6 COCE5 ELPL6 ENBR3 ELET3 ELET6 EQTL3 CMIG4 CPLE6 CPFE3 LIGT3 SBSP3
FCFF (R$ M)
2010 644 1,160 (1,685) (777) (88) 145 278 967 172 (1,515) (1,515) 271 (872) (292) 770 543 462
2011 939 1,369 (359) 1,771 (170) 148 215 164 660 (642) (642) 171 2,176 200 769 67 462
2012 942 1,446 295 2,040 716 247 269 742 685 (565) (565) 148 2,153 389 1,236 299 832
Dividends (R$ M)
2010 843 149 0 559 753 76 283 1,019 290 1,533 1,533 41 775 205 1,523 222 338
2011 910 598 0 662 773 76 214 0 299 1,253 1,253 44 830 638 1,580 256 408
2012 979 598 149 887 803 94 211 630 338 1,302 1,302 61 1,020 801 1,337 365 535
Source: Itaú Securities
-5-
Consensus Estimates Back to cover
Itaú vs. Consensus GETI4 CESP6 MPXE3 TBLE3 TRPL4 CLSC6 COCE5 ELPL6 ENBR3 ELET3 ELET6 EQTL3 CMIG4 CPLE6 CPFE3 LIGT3 SBSP3
Net Revenue
2010 0.0% 2.2% -100.0% 1.2% -1.1% 3.4% -2.5% 0.9% 1.9% 23.4% 23.4% -27.9% 0.2% 1.0% -2.8% 1.7% 0.4%
2011 -1.3% 4.5% -100.0% 3.4% 0.7% 7.8% 1.6% 3.2% -0.6% 21.4% 21.4% -25.8% -4.9% 5.3% -1.8% -1.8% 3.2%
2012 -1.2% 3.9% -13.8% 2.7% 2.7% 6.4% 5.0% 6.9% -2.0% 29.9% 29.9% -14.2% -2.7% 10.0% -6.4% 1.3% 10.4%
EBITDA
2010 -0.1% 1.1% -100.0% 2.8% -3.3% 34.7% -3.8% 10.0% 2.0% 49.7% 49.7% -19.4% 1.1% -18.1% 4.7% -1.6% -1.8%
2011 0.0% 5.8% -100.0% 2.3% -0.7% 15.5% -7.0% -76.9% 0.1% 56.1% 56.1% -24.5% -1.9% 4.2% 1.1% -8.0% 0.9%
2012 0.5% 6.1% 17.5% 2.9% 3.0% 6.3% 6.6% 7.8% -5.0% 78.3% 78.3% -9.9% 1.2% 17.7% -18.4% 8.0% 13.2%
Net Income
2010 2.5% 9.0% -100.0% 1.5% -3.2% 43.7% 2.8% 11.6% 4.5% 33.0% 33.0% -6.9% -15.3% -10.9% 6.4% -11.5% 2.7%
2011 3.4% 32.8% -100.0% -2.6% 1.5% 30.3% -3.8% -165.1% 3.8% 22.3% 22.3% -13.8% -17.6% 8.9% 5.4% -12.0% 4.9%
2012 6.6% 33.3% 42.7% 3.1% 1.8% 15.0% 6.2% -0.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% -6.0% -10.9% 20.8% -17.6% 13.4% 31.5%
Cash Flow GETI4 CESP6 MPXE3 TBLE3 TRPL4 CLSC6 COCE5 ELPL6 ENBR3 ELET3 ELET6 EQTL3 CMIG4 CPLE6 CPFE3 LIGT3 SBSP3
DPS (R$)
2010 2.2 0.8 0.0 0.9 4.6 1.3 3.4 6.1 1.9 0.4 1.2 1.5 1.3 0.9 2.8 1.6 1.4
2011 2.3 1.5 0.0 1.2 4.7 1.8 2.6 4.3 2.0 0.6 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.6 3.1 1.7 1.4
2012 2.4 1.8 0.5 1.4 5.4 1.4 2.7 3.8 2.6 0.8 1.1 1.2 2.3 2.0 3.4 2.0 1.9
Dividend Yield
2010 10.0% 3.0% 0.0% 3.7% 9.1% 3.8% 12.4% 19.1% 5.1% 2.1% 4.5% 13.7% 4.8% 2.3% 7.0% 7.1% 3.8%
2011 10.7% 5.7% 0.1% 4.7% 9.4% 5.0% 9.4% 13.4% 5.5% 2.7% 4.6% 13.5% 6.3% 4.0% 7.8% 7.7% 3.9%
2012 11.3% 7.0% 1.5% 5.8% 10.6% 4.0% 9.7% 12.0% 7.1% 3.6% 4.4% 11.7% 8.2% 5.1% 8.5% 8.9% 5.3%
Multiples GETI4 CESP6 MPXE3 TBLE3 TRPL4 CLSC6 COCE5 ELPL6 ENBR3 ELET3 ELET6 EQTL3 CMIG4 CPLE6 CPFE3 LIGT3 SBSP3
P/E
2010 10.1 15.5 nm 14.0 9.4 6.4 5.5 5.9 10.4 8.6 10.2 5.7 10.2 11.1 13.1 9.1 6.6
2011 9.4 12.8 nm 12.3 9.6 5.8 6.7 8.0 10.1 7.1 8.5 5.3 8.8 8.7 12.2 7.8 6.2
2012 9.0 10.6 nm 10.6 9.3 4.1 7.6 8.4 8.7 5.7 6.8 5.1 7.7 7.7 11.3 7.1 5.5
EV/EBITDA
2010 5.8 7.2 nm 7.7 6.2 4.2 4.4 4.8 5.4 5.4 5.4 4.2 5.9 6.4 8.1 5.6 4.6
2011 5.5 6.2 nm 7.3 6.2 3.4 4.6 5.4 5.1 5.5 5.5 3.2 5.6 5.2 7.6 5.0 4.6
2012 5.3 5.4 nm 6.2 6.5 2.6 5.4 6.2 4.3 6.6 6.6 3.2 4.9 4.6 7.0 4.8 4.2
Source: Bloomberg, Itaú Securities
-6-
AES Tietê Cemig
2.4
59.4
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Eletrobras
5.7
Sabesp
2.3
Eletrobras
Eletropaulo
4.6
Cesp CPFL
2.3
3.4
Sabesp
Cesp
2.2
Celesc MPX
2.8
Light
2.1
Sabesp EDP
2.5
Eletropaulo
1.7
Eletropaulo
EDP
2.5
Equatorial
1.7
USD-denominated debt
CPFL
Coelce
2.4
Tractebel
1.6
Tractebel
Cemig
2.2
Leverage
Copel EDP
1.5
Debt Structure
Light
2.2
Net Debt / EBITDA (YE10E)
Tractebel
1.9
Light
Coelce
0.9
Copel
1.8
BRL-denominated debt
Cemig
Eletrobras
0.9
Cesp
1.6
AES Tietê
Celesc
0.6
Equatorial
1.6
AES Tietê
Copel
0.3
1.0
Debt, Leverage & Capex
MPX
0.0
-7-
Tractebel AES Tietê
1.0
22.3
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Copel
9.6
0.9
0.8
Tractebel
Eletrobras Copel
1.9
0.7
Cesp
Short-term debt
EDP Equatorial
1.8
0.6
Celesc
Light Coelce
0.6
1.5
Equatorial
Sabesp Light
1.5
0.6
EDP
Amortization
CPFL Cemig
0.6
1.5
Debt Structure
ISA Cteep
Investment Capacity
Cash / ST Debt (YE10E)
Celesc Tractebel
1.1
0.5
Light
Back to cover
Long-term debt
Coelce Sabesp
0.8
0.5
Sabesp
Equatorial EDP
0.8
0.4
Cemig
0.3
Eletropaulo
0.1
0.0
Stocks Performance Back to cover
Generation
AES Tietê GETI4 OP 26.80 21.75 23% -0.6% 0.0% 3.6% 12.4% 16.0% 17.0% 9,309 8,260
Cesp CESP6 OP 32.50 25.87 26% 1.3% 4.3% 1.5% 7.9% 16.3% 8.6% 18,685 17,150
MPX MPXE3 OP 34.00 29.25 16% -0.7% 1.7% 13.4% 31.8% 57.7% 30.0% 16,800 11,649
Tractebel TBLE3 MP 32.00 24.45 31% 3.3% 2.3% 7.8% 15.4% 18.3% 14.2% 10,808 10,216
Transmission
ISA Cteep TRPL4 UP 57.50 50.60 14% 2.9% 2.4% 5.9% 11.3% 14.5% 5.6% 7,078 6,838
Distribution
Celesc CLSC6 UP 46.00 35.04 31% -1.4% -0.9% -0.6% 2.5% 3.2% 2.6% 636 667
Coelce COCE5 UP 36.50 27.53 33% -1.7% -2.0% -7.3% 5.8% 9.2% -1.2% 1,445 1,086
Eletropaulo ELPL6 UP 38.30 31.94 20% 2.0% 3.2% -2.6% 6.6% 12.0% 16.3% 31,966 24,152
Integrated
EDP ENBR3 OP 50.40 36.50 38% 0.0% -0.4% 0.3% 7.5% 39.2% 15.1% 12,956 11,935
Eletrobrás ON ELET3 OP 47.20 21.45 120% -1.7% 0.8% -3.4% -8.7% 6.2% -16.2% 14,973 19,591
Eletrobrás PN ELET6 OP 47.20 25.65 84% -0.8% 3.2% -3.2% -7.1% 7.4% -13.9% 18,371 19,030
Equatorial EQTL3 UP 10.70 10.60 1% -1.1% -6.6% -14.4% -1.8% -12.4% -13.7% 5,394 3,658
Cemig CMIG4 MP 37.40 27.47 36% 0.4% 3.1% 7.7% 8.1% 14.5% 0.4% 58,509 40,326
Copel CPLE6 OP 53.00 39.27 35% 1.0% 5.3% 2.2% 18.7% 31.5% 7.8% 21,852 22,858
CPFL Energia CPFE3 UP 41.90 39.97 5% 0.7% 2.0% -0.8% 5.9% 33.2% 21.9% 23,670 19,227
Light LIGT3 MP 30.30 22.36 36% 1.8% 1.9% 1.4% 4.2% -1.3% -6.6% 18,274 16,661
Water
Sabesp SBSP3 UP 41.00 35.82 14% 0.6% 5.9% 1.5% 4.1% 4.9% 4.7% 8,002 11,055
Market Indexes
Ibovespa IBOV 85,000 67,691 26% -0.5% 1.9% 1.5% 5.0% 12.1% -1.3%
IEE IEEX 25,680 0.4% 1.2% 1.5% 8.5% 15.3% 5.6%
Source: Itaú Securities, Bloomberg
* OP = Outperform, MP = Market-perform, UP = Underperform
-8% -3% 2% 7% -17% -12% -7% -2% 3% 8% 13% 18% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
Source: Itaú Securities
-8-
International Peers Back to cover
AES Tietê GETI4 12.72 4,417 -1.0% 0.9% 6.1% 14.7% 9.8 9.1 8.5 5.9 5.5 5.2 5.2% 11.0% 11.8%
Cesp CESP6 15.13 4,532 3.3% -1.1% 1.9% 6.4% 14.2 9.7 8.0 6.7 5.4 4.7 1.2% 7.1% 7.1%
MPX MPXE3 17.11 2,338 0.7% 10.5% 24.4% 27.4% nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm
Tractebel TBLE3 14.30 9,334 1.3% 5.1% 8.9% 12.0% 13.8 12.6 10.3 8.1 6.8 5.7 3.5% 4.2% 5.6%
ISA Cteep TRPL4 29.59 4,403 1.4% 3.2% 5.0% 3.5% 9.7 9.4 9.1 7.1 7.1 6.6 7.3% 10.1% 10.4%
Celesc CLSC6 20.49 790 -1.8% -3.1% -3.3% 0.6% 4.5 4.5 3.6 2.8 2.9 2.1 5.6% 5.6% 7.0%
Coelce COCE5 16.10 1,270 -3.0% -9.7% -0.1% -3.1% 5.3 7.0 7.1 4.2 5.5 5.1 13.2% 10.0% 9.8%
Eletropaulo ELPL6 18.68 3,125 2.2% -5.1% 0.7% 14.0% 5.2 neg 8.5 4.4 27.1 5.6 7.4% 0.0% 11.8%
EDP ENBR3 21.35 3,384 -1.4% -2.3% 1.5% 12.8% 10.0 9.7 8.6 5.4 4.8 4.2 5.0% 5.2% 5.8%
Eletrobrás ON ELET3 12.54 14,764 -0.1% -5.8% -13.8% -17.8% 5.8 5.3 5.1 3.5 3.7 4.0 6.3% 5.2% 5.4%
Eletrobrás PN ELET6 15.00 14,764 2.2% -5.7% -12.3% -15.6% 7.1 6.4 6.2 4.1 4.2 4.4 5.3% 4.3% 4.5%
Equatorial EQTL3 6.20 672 -7.5% -16.6% -7.3% -15.4% 6.1 6.2 5.4 4.1 3.9 3.3 3.6% 3.9% 5.3%
Cemig CMIG4 16.07 9,751 2.1% 5.0% 2.1% -1.6% 12.0 10.6 8.7 6.3 5.5 4.8 4.1% 4.4% 5.4%
Copel CPLE6 22.97 6,041 4.2% -0.4% 12.0% 5.7% 12.4 8.0 6.4 8.0 4.8 3.8 1.1% 5.9% 7.5%
CPFL Energia CPFE3 23.38 11,247 1.0% -3.3% 0.0% 19.5% 12.3 11.6 13.7 8.0 7.7 8.7 3.9% 8.2% 7.0%
Light LIGT3 13.08 2,667 0.9% -1.2% -1.6% -8.5% 10.3 8.9 6.2 5.7 5.7 4.4 4.9% 5.6% 8.0%
Brazil Average 0.3% -1.9% 1.5% 3.4% 9.2 8.5 7.7 5.6 6.7 4.8 5.2% 6.0% 7.5%
EDF EDF FP 42.62 78,803 2.1% -0.4% 0.1% -28.4% 16.1 14.4 12.5 6.8 6.5 6.1 3.5% 3.7% 4.1%
GDF Suez GSZ FP 34.33 77,216 2.7% 3.9% 10.1% -20.9% 13.3 11.9 11.0 6.9 6.2 5.8 5.7% 6.0% 6.5%
EDP EDPFY 33.78 12,352 9.0% 8.1% 9.3% -24.0% 11.6 12.2 n/a n/a n/a n/a 5.0% 5.5% n/a
Endesa ELE SM 25.88 27,400 6.4% 7.3% 12.7% -24.6% 8.7 9.4 8.8 5.3 5.3 5.1 5.4% 5.5% 5.9%
Enel ENEL IM 5.15 48,427 4.3% 5.2% 7.2% -11.2% 8.6 8.5 8.0 7.0 6.9 6.7 6.9% 7.1% 7.5%
Iberdrola IBE SM 7.48 40,264 4.5% 7.2% 16.7% -21.7% 11.3 10.9 9.8 8.3 7.9 7.3 5.7% 5.9% 6.3%
National Grid PLC NG/ LN 872.81 30,511 3.6% 3.7% 16.3% -11.6% nm nm nm 9.0 8.4 8.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Europe Average 4.6% 5.0% 10.4% -20.4% 11.6 11.2 10.0 7.2 6.9 6.5 4.6% 4.8% 5.1%
AES Corp AES 11.19 8,885 1.7% 5.4% 7.8% -15.9% 11.8 10.0 8.9 5.7 5.2 4.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Duke Energy Corp DUK 17.66 23,288 1.8% 3.8% 8.9% 2.6% 13.3 13.2 12.8 8.1 7.5 7.1 5.5% 5.7% 5.8%
Exelon EXC 42.23 27,914 1.1% 2.1% 4.9% -13.6% 10.7 10.4 13.6 5.8 6.2 7.3 5.0% 5.1% 5.1%
USA Average 1.6% 3.8% 7.2% -9.0% 11.9 11.2 11.7 6.5 6.3 6.4 3.5% 3.6% 3.6%
Edenor EDN 6.90 313 2.2% 5.2% -5.1% -12.7% 3.8 3.9 1.5 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Pampa Energia PAMP AR 0.42 553 1.2% 1.5% -0.7% -4.2% -1.7 0.9 0.3 6.9 5.1 3.6 n/a n/a n/a
Transener TRAN AR 0.23 102 -1.1% 0.9% -0.1% -21.7% 12.9 10.1 45.3 4.8 3.9 5.6 n/a n/a n/a
Argentina Average 0.8% 2.5% -2.0% -12.9% 5.0 5.0 15.7 5.9 4.5 4.6 n/a n/a n/a
Colbun COLBUN 0.29 5,008 2.8% -2.2% -5.8% 5.8% 26.0 28.6 14.3 19.3 14.5 9.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Endesa EOC 54.77 14,974 4.3% 9.6% 18.2% 9.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 n/a n/a n/a 7.1% 6.6% 6.6%
Enersis ENI 23.73 15,496 5.1% 11.0% 18.9% 3.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 n/a n/a n/a 5.2% 6.3% 6.5%
Chilectra CHILECTR CI 2.43 2,797 -0.6% -2.3% -13.9% -8.1% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Chile Average 2.9% 4.0% 4.4% 2.6% 8.7 9.5 4.8 19.3 14.5 9.5 4.1% 4.3% 4.4%
ISA SA ISA CB 7.57 8,389 1.0% 6.1% -0.6% -8.5% 39.4 37.8 30.0 7.0 6.6 6.1 n/a n/a n/a
Colombia Average 1.0% 6.1% -0.6% -8.5% 39.4 37.8 30.0 7.0 6.6 6.1 n/a n/a n/a
-9-
Water Storage & Spot Price Back to cover
Southeast South
100% 100%
80% 80%
60% 60%
40% 40%
20% 20%
0%
0%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Série1 5Y Range 5Y Average 2010 Série1 5Y Range 5Y Average 2010
Northeast North
100% 100%
80% 80%
60% 60%
40% 40%
20% 20%
0% 0%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Série1 5Y Range 5Y Average 2010 Série1 5Y Range 5Y Average 2010
Spot Price
0
Sep-03
Sep-04
Sep-05
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
Dec-03
Mar-04
Jun-04
Dec-04
Mar-05
Jun-05
Dec-05
Mar-06
Jun-06
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Source: Operador Nacianal do Sistema (ONS), Camara de Comercializacao de Energia Eletrica (CCEE)
- 10 -
Historical Electricity Consumption Back to cover
North
60,000
7%
58,000
Northeast
56,000 15%
54,000
avg. MW
52,000
50,000
48,000 Southeast /
South
46,000 17% Center-west
61%
44,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
40,000 10,500
35,000 10,000
30,000
9,500
25,000
avg. MW
avg. MW
9,000
20,000
8,500
15,000
8,000
10,000
5,000 7,500
0 7,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
10,000 4,200
9,000
4,000
8,000
7,000 3,800
6,000
avg. MW
avg. MW
3,600
5,000
4,000 3,400
3,000 3,200
2,000
3,000
1,000
0 2,800
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: ONS
- 11 -
Consumption & Price Estimates Back to cover
Electricity Consumption (avg. GW) Auctioned Power Plant Projects (avg. MW) Estimated Capex (R$ million)
WPP
8y CAGR: +5.73%
HPP 24,463
78
8y CAGR: +5.34% 4,992 Imported Coal
76 Coal
74
8y CAGR: +4.94% Natural-Gas
72
71 LNG 17,126
3,568
69 Biomass
68 73
2,842 Diesel
12,566 13,073
66 2,618
64 70 Fuel-Oil
10,464
62 67 2,180 9,435
60 1,850
64 7,175
59 61 1,407
57 4,782
938
55 632 3,034
52 57
54
52
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
103% of EPE's forecast EPE's forecast 97% of EPE's forecast
Energy Balance: EPE's scenario (avg. GW) Energy Balance: 103% of EPE's scenario (avg. GW) Energy Balance: 97% of EPE's scenario (avg. GW)
4.4 6.4
2.7
3.5 2.4 5.4
2.9 1.5 4.6
2.7 1.3
2.2 3.9 4.2
2.0 0.5 3.9
1.8
1.6 1.4 0.1 3.3 3.3
0.8 0.9 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.7
0.4 -0.2
-0.4 -0.2 -0.1
0.1
-1.0 -1.0 1.6
-1.8
-0.5 GDP Growth Rate: 4.96%
GDP Growth Rate: 4.35%
Energy Consumption: 5.73% -2.7 0.1
Energy Consumption: 5.34% 0.1
-2.1 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-4.4
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 GDP Growth Rate: 3.74%
Energy Consumption: 4.94%
With MC2's projects Without MC2's projects With MC2's projects Without MC2's projects With MC2's projects Without MC2's projects
Electricity Prices & Volumes (Existent vs New) Electricity Prices - Free Concession Renewal Electricity Prices - Renewal Price Cap of R$65/MWh
- 12 -
Expiring Generation Concessions Back to cover
Brazil's Assured Energy Companies Affected Current Prices vs. Possible Caps (R$/MWh)
306
Sold until Dec-2012 Sold until Dec-2013 Sold until Dec-2014
Sold until Dec-2012 Sold until Dec-2013 Sold until Dec-2014 Cemig Copel Cesp Furnas Chesf
Chesf Furnas Cesp Copel Série6 Sold until Dec-2012 Sold until Dec-2013 Sold until Dec-2014
Source: Aneel, CCEE, Eletrobrás, Cesp, Cemig, Copel, Itaú Securities Source: CCEE, Itaú Securities Source: CCEE, Itaú Securities
Cost per MWh (2008) Operating Costs per MWh - Other Players
13.00
33.80
13.10 21.30
11.80 32.10
13.88 4.70
18.90
18.20
15.70 11.52
14.10
29.80 16.60
14.20
Chesf Furnas Cesp Cemig Tractebel AES Tietê Jirau HPP Ponte de Pedra HPP Enerpeixe HPP
- 13 -
Disclaimer Back to cover
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- 14 -
Equities
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Research
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