147th National Climate Forum

27 April 2022, 9:00 AM – 12:00 Noon

Via Zoom / FB Live/ YT

CLIMATE OUTLOOK
MAY – OCTOBER 2022

Prepared by:
PAGASA-DOST
Climatology & Agrometeorology Division (CAD)
Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)

Presented by:
Rusy G. Abastillas
SWS, CLIMPS/CAD
La Niña Update

Climate Outlook
(MAY – OCTOBER 2022)

Summary
La Niña Update
Conditions in the Global Tropics
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTAs)

During the last four weeks,

equatorial SSTs were below
average across most of the Pacific
Ocean and the eastern Atlantic
Ocean. Equatorial SSTs were
above average in the far western
Pacific Ocean, near Indonesia, the
eastern Indian Ocean, and the
central Atlantic Ocean.
La Niña Update

During the last 4 weeks,

negative SST anomalies
have strengthened in
the eastern Pacific,
while persisting in the
central and east-central
As of: 25 April 2022
Pacific.
 La Niña Update
Conditions in the Tropical Pacific Ocean
as of 25 April 2022: Sub-Surface Temperature During the last two months, negative temperature
Departures in the Equatorial Pacific
subsurface anomalies emerged and shifted eastward
across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

From mid-March to early July 2021,

subsurface temperature was above average.
Negative temperature anomalies returned in
July 2021 and persisted through mid-January
2022. Since February, subsurface
temperatures have decreased and are
negative.
Most recent pentad analysis
Negative subsurface temperature anomalies
prevail near the surface across most of the
equatorial Pacific Ocean. Positive anomalies
are in the central and western Pacific, at depth,
and near the surface in a small region of the
eastern Pacific Ocean.
La Niña Update
What are the chances?

Model + Expert judgment ENSO probability forecast Purely objective ENSO probability forecast
 Global Model Forecast Guidance
La Niña Update
until when?

There are roughly equal odds of La Niña and ENSO-neutral

during the Northern Hemisphere summer, with La Niña
favored for the fall and early winter 2022-23.
o 11 out of 24 models or 46% - ENSO-neutral then La Nina
o 13 out of 24 models or 54% - La Nina to continue

The CFS.v2 ensemble mean (black dashed

line) predicts La Niña to continue through
the end of the year.
 ENSO Alert System Status:

La Niña Advisory #7

La Niña is strengthening slightly and is likely to continue

through the June-August 2022 (59% chance), with a 50-55%
chance of La Niña thereafter. (updated 27 April)

 La Nina increases the likelihood of having above

normal rainfall conditions in some areas of the
country.
Historical El Niño and La Niña Episodes

Good to know

Last Strong La Nina – 2010-2011

Last La Nina episode – 2020-2021

(Weak to Moderate)

Last 6 episodes were back-to-back La Nina:

2007-2008
2008-2009
2010-2011
2011-2012
2016-2017
2017-2018
2020-2021
2021- ongoing
 Weather systems that may affect the country
MAY – OCTOBER 2022

RIDGE OF HIGH
THUNDERSTORMS INTER-TROPICAL EASTERLIES PRESSURE AREAS (HPAs)
CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ)

LOW PRESSURE TAIL-END OF THE

AREAS (LPAs) TROPICAL CYCLONES SOUTHWEST
FRONTAL SYSTEM
(SHEAR LINE) MONSOON
In transition (up to mid-May)
 PERCENTAGE (%) RAINFALL CONDITION

Less than or = 40 way below normal

41 – 80 below normal

81 – 120 near normal

For more details
and updates
Greater than 120 above normal

Rainfall Surplus or Reduction

 MAY 2022
Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast

way below normal below normal near normal above normal

0 0 79 4
 JUNE 2022
Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast

way below normal below normal near normal above normal

0 11 72 0
 JULY 2022
Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast

way below normal below normal near normal above normal

0 8 74 1
 AUGUST 2022
Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast

way below normal below normal near normal above normal

0 2 80 1
 SEPTEMBER 2022
Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast

way below normal below normal near normal above normal

0 0 37 46
 OCTOBER 2022
Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast

way below normal below normal near normal above normal

0 0 39 44
 FORECAST RAINFALL in Percent of Normal (May-October 2022) as of April 27, 2022

PROVINCE MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER PROVINCE MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER PROVINCE MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER
REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA) REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA)
CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR)
MARINDUQUE 111.5 104.8 94.4 100.5 117.9 143.3 ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 110.5 105.7 98.9 99.6 128.8 117.3
ABRA 108.3 74.0 79.3 86.3 109.3 113.2
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 122.4 99.5 92.1 95.2 140.0 143.7 ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 108.6 106.6 97.0 99.6 125.1 113.6
BENGUET 111.8 75.0 76.5 83.8 97.9 87.6
ORIENTAL MINDORO 117.9 100.8 92.3 94.0 130.2 141.7 ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 109.4 106.7 97.0 99.5 123.9 112.9
IFUGAO 112.2 79.2 86.9 92.0 113.5 116.3
ROMBLON 108.5 102.3 91.6 102.4 133.9 135.6 REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO)
KALINGA 108.8 74.0 82.3 91.9 118.7 112.2
APAYAO 102.6 69.2 78.1 91.8 112.9 111.9 PALAWAN 118.1 100.3 89.3 94.4 135.9 123.3 BUKIDNON 106.2 95.8 91.1 105.8 106.9 113.3
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 111.2 76.4 85.6 90.2 113.3 114.4 SPRATLY ISLANDS 116.9 93.2 87.1 93.5 143.1 143.5 CAMIGUIN 113.1 107.1 101.0 104.8 123.0 119.5
REGION I REGION V (BICOL) LANAO DEL NORTE 106.3 101.9 94.6 107.7 114.9 113.3
ILOCOS NORTE 97.1 68.1 72.0 88.3 102.6 117.8 ALBAY 95.4 101.3 91.0 100.4 108.8 139.6 MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL 109.2 104.3 100.2 103.7 126.5 116.9
ILOCOS SUR 111.9 76.9 82.2 83.8 103.6 101.3 CAMARINES NORTE 110.0 103.3 84.7 109.9 122.0 142.0 MISAMIS ORIENTAL 110.8 103.3 101.3 109.8 117.7 116.9
LA UNION 110.3 73.9 75.3 83.6 96.0 90.1 CAMARINES SUR 97.4 97.7 88.9 104.2 102.9 145.5 REGION XI (DAVAO REGION)
PANGASINAN 110.2 71.3 68.5 80.3 107.6 127.2 CATANDUANES 92.0 106.8 100.7 104.6 122.2 128.8 DAVAO DE ORO 103.9 99.9 90.8 98.5 108.2 110.2
REGION II MASBATE 104.7 101.5 94.6 106.3 138.7 146.5 DAVAO CITY 100.3 96.0 102.2 101.7 95.1 104.6
BATANES 95.2 82.9 80.6 90.8 99.1 136.0 SORSOGON 97.8 105.9 77.3 106.9 126.3 142.5 DAVAO DEL NORTE 103.7 96.6 87.0 98.2 101.7 104.8
CAGAYAN 105.7 73.7 81.5 94.1 118.6 109.1 DAVAO DEL SUR 98.0 97.9 119.2 104.9 100.7 113.9
REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS)
ISABELA 112.1 86.4 86.2 97.9 126.7 121.6 DAVAO OCCIDENTAL 99.6 99.5 109.8 104.0 112.5 115.7
AKLAN 116.1 101.7 87.5 100.9 117.7 119.5
NUEVA VIZCAYA 114.4 85.6 84.6 94.4 110.2 118.9 DAVAO ORIENTAL 102.8 101.4 105.0 101.1 111.6 116.9
ANTIQUE 113.8 100.1 85.0 98.9 118.9 124.4
QUIRINO 114.5 98.9 92.4 104.5 120.6 131.3 REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)
CAPIZ 117.9 103.7 95.4 101.3 118.1 111.2
REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON) SOUTH COTABATO 99.3 98.4 100.5 104.1 112.6 114.6
GUIMARAS 110.1 104.0 93.5 96.3 129.9 124.7
BATAAN 133.1 108.6 130.1 127.3 212.8 169.5 COTABATO 98.5 95.7 97.2 104.5 99.1 111.8
ILOILO 113.2 103.4 92.8 99.3 121.0 119.2
BULACAN 119.7 94.2 92.9 88.7 135.5 129.0 SARANGANI 99.9 99.1 100.6 103.7 115.6 115.6
NEGROS OCCIDENTAL 117.1 104.2 95.7 100.6 134.0 122.5
NUEVA ECIJA 118.0 89.3 89.5 92.9 119.9 123.2 SULTAN KUDARAT 98.8 98.7 96.3 103.9 110.0 112.8
REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS) REGION XIII- CARAGA
PAMPANGA 116.3 96.3 90.3 79.9 159.8 140.2
NEGROS ORIENTAL 121.8 100.6 96.5 101.2 135.9 114.8 AGUSAN DEL NORTE 107.5 108.2 100.1 104.1 127.5 122.0
TARLAC 110.5 80.8 66.3 72.1 129.9 138.7
ZAMBALES 117.2 88.9 93.8 98.3 163.7 165.4 BOHOL 117.6 106.4 93.9 106.5 117.0 122.9 AGUSAN DEL SUR 106.0 103.7 91.1 98.8 119.7 120.7
AURORA 115.5 106.0 95.8 109.5 122.4 133.3 CEBU 117.9 105.5 90.1 111.9 122.7 117.3 DINAGAT ISLANDS 106.0 103.1 89.3 101.5 136.6 123.6
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION SIQUIJOR 121.7 102.7 98.5 103.0 131.0 111.9 SURIGAO DEL NORTE 105.0 108.5 90.7 102.3 132.6 122.6
METRO MANILA 118.6 89.4 82.3 83.4 143.1 144.9 REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS) SURIGAO DEL SUR 104.8 109.4 95.0 98.2 126.5 123.3
REGION IV-A (CALABARZON) BILIRAN 107.4 94.1 83.0 111.6 146.2 129.6 BARMM
BATANGAS 115.8 94.1 89.2 94.6 156.1 151.3 EASTERN SAMAR 103.8 107.2 88.9 103.4 119.8 125.1 BASILAN 112.6 110.9 97.2 94.7 130.0 113.8
CAVITE 119.7 90.1 81.9 90.7 167.3 158.3 LEYTE 113.2 98.3 87.5 106.7 134.7 126.0 MAGUINDANAO 96.8 97.7 90.1 105.1 105.0 109.0
LAGUNA 115.6 93.6 89.1 89.5 145.7 150.9 NORTHERN SAMAR 98.3 103.1 80.9 106.7 130.9 144.6 LANAO DEL SUR 103.1 98.2 90.5 108.0 107.7 112.2
RIZAL 117.8 96.1 92.6 88.2 140.2 142.0 SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 102.7 100.7 82.6 108.0 133.6 127.8 SULU 112.0 104.5 95.9 100.0 122.2 111.7
QUEZON 114.5 105.0 95.2 102.9 126.6 140.9 SOUTHERN LEYTE 114.9 99.5 91.9 97.3 136.1 136.1 TAWI-TAWI 111.7 101.8 96.1 100.7 122.3 113.8
 FORECAST RAINFALL in Millimeters (May – October 2022) as of April 27, 2022
PROVINCE MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER
CO RDIL L ERA ADMINIS T RAT IV E REG IO N MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN
ABRA 176.9 257.8 210.9 142.1 230.0 185.3 274.9 485.3 372.1 343.3 564.2 446.0 343.3 418.0 382.2 153.1 319.6 248.5
BENGUET 285.1 356.7 324.4 237.0 282.4 260.2 409.0 595.5 514.2 529.1 841.8 674.8 431.1 477.2 456.9 258.3 384.8 314.8
IFUGAO 233.4 313.1 271.1 132.1 247.9 188.6 199.5 499.0 345.8 237.4 605.8 410.3 317.6 443.4 376.0 297.8 332.7 309.8
KALINGA 178.3 241.5 207.8 107.5 195.1 138.7 169.8 404.3 258.3 218.5 480.4 325.2 297.8 387.8 332.6 287.3 322.4 314.6
APAYAO 148.1 192.5 166.4 103.9 154.1 126.9 182.0 299.8 236.3 230.6 393.5 315.2 297.1 360.7 327.0 240.0 320.9 297.0
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 212.6 293.3 249.6 119.7 240.2 179.5 193.2 516.5 352.5 253.3 605.4 427.2 310.0 433.0 370.7 290.1 322.6 311.6
REGION I
ILOCOS NORTE 163.1 203.7 174.1 135.1 198.7 164.3 238.5 388.4 310.8 369.3 514.8 440.1 334.3 396.3 370.9 129.4 287.2 199.6
ILOCOS SUR 188.8 324.5 254.6 189.7 275.1 235.7 365.3 598.2 491.6 446.4 761.2 573.8 393.1 473.2 425.6 124.2 301.7 225.0
LA UNION 286.3 337.4 313.7 263.9 288.8 278.6 413.8 597.2 533.1 591.4 798.7 720.0 465.2 490.7 473.0 258.7 330.9 276.7
PANGASINAN 241.2 313.7 270.0 212.6 299.5 257.6 306.0 551.3 392.0 370.1 676.0 536.5 406.0 626.4 487.2 270.6 384.0 318.6
REGION II
BATANES 190.6 200.6 193.5 150.0 173.7 159.8 161.4 268.0 197.2 295.5 342.0 311.6 311.4 318.5 312.9 337.7 371.5 364.3
CAGAYAN 140.3 190.8 163.9 98.8 146.1 109.8 154.7 250.8 181.3 185.6 381.3 233.1 287.6 341.0 298.9 269.1 334.9 311.8
ISABELA 181.8 277.6 231.4 105.9 206.1 145.5 162.2 294.7 202.0 178.8 340.4 226.5 295.7 360.4 323.0 300.9 555.2 348.1
NUEVA VIZCAYA 271.9 327.1 300.5 180.1 250.8 224.8 267.8 491.8 359.2 229.3 608.9 402.7 355.9 449.5 401.6 305.5 474.5 377.9
QUIRINO 262.3 300.9 286.1 174.2 241.2 211.8 223.6 314.9 256.2 195.9 326.8 237.9 339.5 380.7 353.5 320.5 576.2 439.0
REGION III
BATAAN 195.3 233.3 218.4 248.7 323.6 289.2 452.4 722.4 571.1 511.3 792.0 644.6 726.3 925.0 825.3 316.8 372.1 346.2
BULACAN 213.5 262.4 241.5 242.1 287.3 266.7 367.0 471.8 431.7 331.4 540.9 418.0 425.9 710.1 517.3 292.6 501.8 360.6
NUEVA ECIJA 217.8 300.5 258.0 205.9 278.8 230.7 294.0 416.1 332.1 264.4 449.5 347.3 375.0 493.1 407.2 220.0 466.7 322.1
PAMPANGA 201.3 236.3 216.2 236.8 292.0 262.4 330.5 550.0 424.3 370.1 605.7 452.1 451.0 755.4 597.6 256.6 350.9 295.3
TARLAC 207.1 264.2 228.5 206.9 297.7 242.6 279.8 580.9 375.1 369.1 693.5 473.7 406.1 699.9 513.9 243.4 411.6 307.3
ZAMBALES 217.2 261.4 237.8 256.7 347.4 304.3 409.8 829.0 611.5 561.7 833.8 707.5 536.5 963.4 746.6 322.7 463.7 384.0
AURORA 260.2 298.6 279.2 197.1 288.3 243.9 233.7 417.7 284.1 197.1 357.5 234.6 345.5 452.9 365.1 413.8 688.5 536.6
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION
METRO MANILA 184.2 234.1 213.0 209.8 263.5 242.6 304.7 431.1 377.5 335.1 468.6 423.8 508.5 610.3 554.1 308.3 404.5 356.7
REGION IV-A
BATANGAS 162.4 195.8 179.5 196.4 261.2 219.0 246.6 468.1 285.8 178.8 482.0 269.8 310.6 696.8 422.4 303.8 530.4 389.6
CAVITE 166.2 195.2 182.7 197.8 249.0 216.6 270.9 449.3 325.3 293.4 479.1 372.6 458.1 701.8 564.3 307.4 356.6 323.7
LAGUNA 166.1 214.4 184.9 196.4 251.1 211.5 252.4 365.7 292.8 191.5 396.6 255.0 362.9 534.3 430.8 311.2 631.9 458.9
RIZAL 179.8 252.9 222.7 207.4 282.4 254.1 300.4 433.5 375.0 249.9 439.7 358.6 427.9 539.1 489.8 369.9 563.3 446.3
QUEZON 138.4 264.7 191.9 181.1 297.5 221.7 134.5 416.1 256.9 147.7 375.4 199.1 315.1 474.2 353.5 332.4 681.6 568.7
REGION IV-B
MARINDUQUE 170.6 181.5 175.6 211.9 258.7 234.6 224.7 276.4 260.5 168.1 201.4 181.3 306.2 326.1 316.3 473.0 543.9 492.2
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 199.1 216.7 208.8 267.1 310.9 292.6 267.7 575.0 367.7 245.6 531.4 346.5 368.9 690.1 478.3 342.8 449.6 402.5
ORIENTAL MINDORO 191.0 210.5 201.8 255.5 300.1 286.7 252.0 422.5 331.9 180.3 415.0 279.9 311.4 546.5 398.1 360.6 487.8 421.6
ROMBLON 164.9 191.8 174.5 233.6 287.6 260.0 264.8 328.0 289.0 195.5 285.8 238.5 311.8 395.7 350.7 368.5 469.1 412.9
PALAWAN 150.5 226.4 175.9 164.9 286.2 221.8 152.3 394.9 255.3 155.8 425.5 260.8 240.8 644.3 368.0 220.1 410.4 311.3
SPRATLY ISLANDS 194.2 197.1 194.9 254.7 258.3 255.3 369.6 381.4 371.6 394.2 405.1 396.0 499.6 518.8 502.8 336.5 346.5 338.2
REGION V
ALBAY 155.9 173.7 162.6 182.0 238.7 199.0 187.4 301.7 269.6 202.8 251.4 238.5 291.6 348.2 329.7 334.0 484.7 398.9
CAMARINES NORTE 158.7 179.2 170.5 173.4 205.1 188.9 172.8 218.2 194.9 152.6 208.3 180.3 326.8 351.5 339.1 559.0 694.3 615.1
CAMARINES SUR 149.8 169.2 156.5 172.2 222.8 183.3 194.8 297.5 245.1 174.2 241.0 215.7 335.4 355.2 349.6 369.1 635.8 490.8
CATANDUANES 149.7 156.6 153.3 216.2 240.8 231.6 232.0 257.5 250.9 189.4 207.8 195.7 312.4 344.9 327.2 466.7 500.3 480.9
MASBATE 146.8 182.8 156.4 176.8 271.1 185.1 164.5 303.6 215.8 179.5 228.9 191.1 293.6 353.8 313.8 332.2 468.2 375.1
SORSOGON 156.8 168.6 161.9 187.9 233.8 207.2 139.8 277.4 183.5 191.8 239.3 210.7 275.5 325.0 292.6 388.6 473.2 442.7
 FORECAST RAINFALL in Millimeters (May – October 2022) as of April 27, 2022
PROVINCE MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER
REGION VI MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN
AKLAN 192.7 204.2 198.4 285.5 306.9 300.7 268.0 330.5 290.2 225.5 300.6 257.8 294.0 394.0 318.3 304.5 394.7 343.2
ANTIQUE 186.9 208.0 193.5 266.5 301.4 285.9 256.8 407.1 275.8 258.3 400.7 321.0 304.0 528.4 343.2 276.0 404.1 313.4
CAPIZ 184.9 207.6 199.0 278.9 317.7 305.6 261.6 321.1 290.1 210.5 307.3 257.8 294.9 353.5 311.0 287.9 397.8 330.8
GUIMARAS 181.6 199.8 189.2 297.1 321.4 310.9 333.4 395.9 359.1 369.2 387.7 381.0 428.3 490.5 453.8 280.9 351.9 309.5
ILOILO 174.0 200.6 190.1 244.5 323.7 304.4 261.5 359.0 301.1 205.3 388.5 322.3 307.2 434.9 361.0 266.6 385.6 297.0
NEGROS OCCIDENTAL 167.8 221.9 189.3 226.9 328.3 291.1 246.6 431.1 367.1 220.5 376.8 302.2 314.3 512.0 438.7 291.7 431.7 343.5
REGION VII
NEGROS ORIENTAL 133.5 205.1 162.4 179.4 312.0 225.1 148.2 422.6 251.2 108.1 331.4 200.5 193.2 490.8 312.3 160.9 402.4 274.1
BOHOL 115.0 129.1 120.2 158.2 194.0 166.9 126.4 197.6 148.1 120.4 196.1 154.8 159.5 294.8 200.1 214.4 334.7 260.6
CEBU 124.6 172.5 148.2 177.1 272.9 225.8 149.7 297.2 232.8 119.7 251.7 205.3 196.7 361.7 292.6 182.1 374.5 272.9
SIQUIJOR 129.4 138.1 133.7 167.1 178.4 173.0 128.7 142.1 135.4 115.8 127.9 121.1 165.2 178.0 171.4 200.0 245.2 223.7
REGION VIII
BILIRAN 159.7 167.3 163.2 187.0 208.4 199.6 206.1 220.6 215.8 191.4 208.6 202.8 352.9 374.7 366.1 337.6 366.4 355.7
EASTERN SAMAR 144.1 202.0 179.2 207.9 246.0 237.7 184.5 261.6 225.3 158.2 217.3 201.5 205.7 326.8 263.1 307.1 420.5 374.7
LEYTE 126.5 171.6 157.1 175.1 231.0 212.2 181.2 236.6 212.7 174.6 247.0 212.7 275.3 372.1 338.9 267.1 372.1 331.2
NORTHERN SAMAR 156.1 175.3 164.5 184.9 242.9 222.0 139.0 258.2 203.5 181.2 209.7 192.7 271.9 341.6 307.2 375.6 516.4 451.1
SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 158.2 192.6 173.9 181.2 240.0 222.6 170.9 253.5 218.4 177.0 217.4 202.0 244.6 368.8 322.2 272.7 468.1 378.2
SOUTHERN LEYTE 124.5 146.6 134.1 166.1 206.7 183.8 156.1 232.7 207.3 159.6 223.4 196.0 272.0 347.1 324.7 309.7 364.7 339.7
REGION IX
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 130.0 170.1 158.0 179.4 267.1 238.0 154.1 262.4 231.1 141.8 234.6 203.4 204.8 290.1 255.8 241.1 363.8 289.6
ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 123.1 173.2 157.5 175.6 271.8 237.1 148.8 262.5 214.0 122.7 220.4 189.2 214.5 272.1 242.0 230.0 310.1 253.1
ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 140.3 165.4 154.6 195.9 255.5 229.9 178.8 248.0 217.3 163.8 219.4 197.8 209.2 261.9 248.9 233.2 265.0 256.1
REGION X
BUKIDNON 163.1 228.4 209.5 230.2 293.4 266.6 237.7 338.9 299.0 211.9 316.2 279.4 234.9 285.9 269.9 220.2 322.0 279.3
CAMIGUIN 133.2 140.3 136.5 176.5 186.1 180.6 146.4 163.1 156.0 149.1 161.3 155.4 206.0 218.2 210.5 278.9 294.2 280.7
LANAO DEL NORTE 163.2 183.9 174.4 247.3 275.3 263.4 208.3 265.5 225.9 203.0 256.6 223.2 234.3 267.6 245.4 219.7 257.5 238.0
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL 156.7 173.0 166.0 223.8 270.0 252.3 202.9 252.3 225.4 174.1 214.7 199.5 224.4 264.2 246.0 248.1 332.0 290.8
MISAMIS ORIENTAL 142.3 182.5 160.6 189.0 257.8 224.7 152.1 263.9 212.2 141.2 248.0 202.8 196.2 263.7 232.8 210.0 277.6 248.1
REGION XI
DAVAO DE ORO 200.6 232.5 214.7 196.0 247.5 217.3 108.9 204.9 136.6 164.5 224.5 181.4 174.1 242.3 202.0 185.1 285.0 240.3
DAVAO CITY 211.9 233.5 224.5 222.0 268.8 246.6 202.0 332.7 286.8 193.8 276.5 252.8 173.8 248.2 204.1 202.4 270.5 251.3
DAVAO DEL NORTE 204.8 225.7 220.4 207.4 269.2 236.7 119.3 292.6 199.8 176.0 279.4 222.9 164.3 266.5 218.7 191.3 294.7 240.9
DAVAO DEL SUR 150.1 223.9 186.7 172.2 241.6 210.8 202.8 332.0 289.0 147.9 247.7 199.4 134.4 182.8 158.4 194.7 271.2 249.2
DAVAO OCCIDENTAL 129.1 180.9 145.8 133.7 198.4 157.1 85.4 282.7 167.1 119.5 185.1 140.4 129.8 174.1 142.0 177.0 259.4 221.8
DAVAO ORIENTAL 170.1 233.9 204.3 189.5 245.0 204.9 114.5 240.4 164.9 163.3 182.7 170.2 172.3 221.5 194.1 223.4 290.4 262.0
REGION XII
SOUTH COTABATO 110.6 174.2 142.7 126.8 223.0 166.5 75.7 242.0 146.5 95.9 192.0 139.6 121.4 186.8 145.7 118.1 245.5 200.6
COTABATO 180.8 224.1 207.3 222.8 295.5 274.6 272.6 341.7 320.3 199.0 291.6 259.3 169.1 270.0 228.6 240.2 281.1 258.8
SARANGANI 115.1 154.8 130.9 123.7 181.5 142.4 68.3 215.5 111.5 101.0 154.5 120.3 123.9 175.0 136.5 130.9 245.5 194.3
SULTAN KUDARAT 149.6 188.7 168.2 177.8 255.8 216.2 141.2 300.1 207.7 147.7 222.7 181.9 144.6 218.6 188.1 211.2 257.0 244.4
REGION XIII
AGUSAN DEL NORTE 136.2 183.0 154.2 172.6 234.7 204.8 122.0 228.0 161.4 117.9 196.3 137.9 185.3 224.7 196.3 210.2 277.7 241.7
AGUSAN DEL SUR 152.7 250.7 209.7 195.6 266.1 245.8 132.8 281.2 208.9 121.8 268.9 192.6 186.9 267.3 226.1 227.8 338.2 275.8
DINAGAT ISLANDS 133.0 143.9 138.9 175.2 196.5 183.7 149.3 200.4 176.3 146.0 174.8 160.8 242.6 289.3 272.7 299.8 326.8 302.7
SURIGAO DEL NORTE 129.4 165.5 143.6 168.9 206.8 183.8 122.1 187.7 142.8 120.3 167.0 137.9 193.5 262.2 223.8 264.2 308.2 296.2
SURIGAO DEL SUR 149.2 256.3 200.1 189.8 273.4 238.6 128.9 224.1 182.3 120.6 185.3 157.0 189.0 231.8 209.0 252.4 346.8 289.8
BARMM
BASILAN 128.4 140.6 134.2 176.7 191.0 181.3 151.1 182.8 160.4 133.2 169.0 146.9 226.9 238.4 230.3 237.0 255.1 245.2
MAGUINDANAO 172.9 206.4 191.7 216.4 294.7 266.0 213.7 325.6 261.1 188.1 270.6 230.0 169.5 262.4 226.0 235.3 288.9 263.3
LANAO DEL SUR 171.7 213.2 191.6 256.8 294.1 280.6 224.7 333.1 265.6 213.3 291.9 254.2 237.2 275.8 258.1 232.7 269.5 247.1
SULU 135.5 154.0 143.7 183.4 224.1 200.5 171.7 236.6 197.7 165.2 219.1 188.1 205.8 277.8 231.5 235.5 264.5 246.4
TAWI-TAWI 144.3 176.4 155.0 191.9 250.2 214.0 178.6 278.5 222.4 176.1 269.4 210.7 207.3 358.5 244.8 235.7 297.5 252.2
 FORECAST WATERSHED RAINFALL for selected Dams
in (mm) and (%N) FOR MAY - OCT 2022 and Lakes
Pantabangan San Roque
NAME Angat WS La Mesa WS Lake Buhi Lake Lanao Magat WS Malinao WS
WS Cascade WS
MIN 247.6 229.2 149.8 156.2 249.4 118.5 276.0 304.6
MAX 262.4 236.5 168.4 208.9 325.1 121.4 300.1 354.2
MAY MEAN 258.9 232.1 155.7 185.8 292.6 120.1 287.3 328.9
%NORMAL 120.6 118.0 94.7 106.4 113.3 117.4 116.8 112.5
MIN 267.5 256.3 172.3 239.0 158.5 159.8 222.5 243.0
MAX 286.2 265.9 203.6 292.2 250.5 167.9 246.2 270.0
JUNE MEAN 277.0 261.2 184.0 269.7 215.0 163.0 228.4 255.9
%NORMAL 97.8 91.7 97.6 98.5 80.9 106.3 90.7 75.4
MIN 407.7 401.6 225.6 213.3 245.9 140.1 273.7 391.5
MAX 446.5 429.6 299.5 320.3 504.8 156.0 349.8 554.2
JULY MEAN 435.0 422.8 273.1 264.2 382.5 147.8 311.3 494.3
%NORMAL 99.8 89.0 92.1 93.9 84.3 94.8 89.2 74.9
MIN 331.0 425.8 209.1 216.3 285.4 145.4 260.3 519.0
MAX 426.2 448.3 251.4 294.5 614.9 164.4 416.3 790.4
AUGUST MEAN 395.8 438.4 231.4 254.7 446.6 156.1 325.6 637.6
%NORMAL 93.7 83.2 100.2 109.8 91.6 105.8 97.9 82.7
MIN 427.6 530.0 325.0 244.9 340.4 187.7 374.3 438.7
MAX 507.3 542.3 355.2 284.1 449.2 219.7 416.0 467.9
SEPTEMBER MEAN 477.1 537.4 346.7 262.7 401.6 202.9 395.9 454.5
%NORMAL 131.4 135.8 98.9 109.5 109.4 116.9 114.4 98.8
MIN 328.8 375.4 334.0 210.0 299.5 255.0 336.5 296.6
MAX 500.7 392.4 541.8 282.5 408.9 283.8 426.7 379.7
OCTOBER MEAN 431.0 383.3 411.2 243.2 340.1 272.2 384.9 342.4
%NORMAL 124.8 137.7 145.3 113.6 114.3 123.2 129.7 90.7
DRY DAY FORECAST

MAY – OCTOBER 2022

Note: Dry day is defined as a day

with less than 1 mm of rainfall is
observed.
 NORMAL (1991 - 2020) FORECAST ANOMALY
PROVINCE MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT
DRY DAY FORECAST CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR)
ABRA 19 16 15 15 17 20 19 16 15 16 17 21 0 0 0 1 1 1
BENGUET 14 13 11 10 11 18 13 13 11 11 12 18 -1 0 0 1 0 0
IFUGAO 16 15 13 14 14 17 16 15 14 14 14 17 0 -1 0 1 0 0
KALINGA 19 18 16 17 17 19 20 18 16 17 17 19 1 0 0 0 0 0
APAYAO 21 21 19 19 18 21 23 21 19 19 18 20 2 0 0 0 0 -1

MAY – OCTOBER 2022 MOUNTAIN PROVINCE

REGION I
17 16 14 14 15 18 17 15 14 15 15 18 0 0 0 1 1 0

ILOCOS NORTE 21 20 18 18 19 23 23 20 17 19 19 23 3 0 -1 1 0 -1
ILOCOS SUR 17 13 12 12 14 19 16 13 12 13 15 21 -1 0 0 1 1 2
LA UNION 15 13 11 11 12 19 15 13 12 12 12 20 0 0 0 1 0 1
PANGASINAN 18 16 14 14 15 22 20 17 14 14 15 22 2 2 1 1 0 0
REGION II
BATANES 18 19 17 14 14 17 19 19 17 15 14 17 1 0 0 0 0 1
CAGAYAN 21 21 20 20 18 18 23 21 20 20 18 17 3 0 0 0 -1 -1
ISABELA 19 19 17 18 17 17 20 17 17 18 17 15 1 -1 0 0 0 -2
Note: Dry day is defined NUEVA VIZCAYA
QUIRINO
15
16
14
15
13
14
13
15
13
14
17
16
15
17
14
14
13
16
13
15
13
15
17
16
0
2
0
-1
1
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
as a day with less than 1 REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON)
BATAAN 20 17 14 14 15 21 21 18 14 16 15 19 1 1 0 2 0 -2
mm of rainfall is BULACAN 17 15 13 14 13 18 18 15 14 14 14 16 1 0 1 0 0 -2
NUEVA ECIJA 18 16 14 14 14 19 18 16 14 15 15 19 1 0 1 1 0 0
observed. PAMPANGA 18 16 13 14 15 21 19 17 14 14 15 19 1 1 1 1 0 -2
TARLAC 18 16 13 14 15 22 19 18 14 14 15 21 1 2 1 1 0 -1
ZAMBALES 19 15 13 13 15 21 20 18 14 14 14 20 1 3 1 1 -1 -2
AURORA 16 15 15 16 14 15 18 14 16 16 15 15 2 -1 2 0 1 0
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION
METRO MANILA 19 15 12 13 13 18 19 15 13 13 13 16 1 0 1 0 1 -2
REGION IV-A (CALABARZON)
BATANGAS 21 18 16 17 17 19 19 17 16 17 18 18 -2 -1 0 0 1 -1
CAVITE 22 19 15 15 16 21 21 18 15 17 17 20 -1 0 0 1 1 -1
LAGUNA 18 15 13 14 13 16 18 15 14 14 14 14 0 0 1 0 1 -3
RIZAL 17 13 12 12 11 17 18 14 13 12 13 13 1 1 1 0 1 -3
QUEZON 17 14 15 16 14 12 18 14 16 17 14 11 0 -1 1 1 1 -1
REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA)
MARINDUQUE 18 15 15 17 15 13 18 14 16 18 15 11 0 -1 1 1 0 -2
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 21 16 15 16 16 19 19 15 14 17 16 17 -2 -1 -1 1 0 -2
ORIENTAL MINDORO 20 16 15 17 16 17 18 14 15 18 16 15 -2 -1 0 1 0 -2
ROMBLON 19 14 15 17 15 15 18 14 16 17 15 12 -1 0 1 1 0 -3
PALAWAN 21 16 17 18 16 17 20 17 16 18 16 16 -1 1 0 -1 0 -1
SPRATLY ISLANDS 27 26 25 29 27 20 25 24 23 26 23 17 -2 -2 -2 -4 -3 -3
REGION V (BICOL)
ALBAY 17 14 13 14 13 14 16 14 14 14 13 10 -1 0 1 0 0 -4
CAMARINES NORTE 18 15 16 17 14 11 18 14 17 18 14 11 0 -1 1 0 0 -1
CAMARINES SUR 18 15 15 16 13 13 17 14 15 15 13 10 -1 0 0 0 0 -2
CATANDUANES 18 15 15 17 15 13 16 13 15 15 16 12 -2 -2 0 -2 1 -1
MASBATE 21 17 16 17 16 17 21 17 16 16 16 14 0 0 0 -1 0 -2
SORSOGON 18 15 14 15 14 15 18 15 15 15 15 12 0 0 0 0 0 -3
 NORMAL (1991 - 2020) FORECAST ANOMALY
PROVINCE MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT
DRY DAY FORECAST REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS)
AKLAN 19 14 15 17 16 16 17 14 16 17 15 14 -2 0 1 0 0 -2
ANTIQUE 18 14 14 16 15 17 17 14 15 16 15 16 -1 0 0 0 0 -1
CAPIZ 19 15 16 17 16 16 17 15 16 17 16 13 -2 0 1 -1 0 -2
GUIMARAS 19 14 15 16 16 17 18 14 15 16 16 17 -1 0 0 0 0 0
ILOILO 19 14 15 17 16 16 18 14 16 16 16 15 -1 0 0 0 0 -1
NEGROS OCCIDENTAL 21 16 17 18 17 18 19 15 17 17 17 17 -2 -1 0 -1 0 -1
MAY – OCTOBER 2022 REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS)
NEGROS ORIENTAL 22 17 18 19 18 18 20 15 17 19 18 16 -2 -1 0 0 0 -2
BOHOL 20 17 17 18 17 16 20 17 18 19 18 16 0 1 1 1 1 0
CEBU 21 17 17 18 17 17 19 16 17 18 17 16 -2 -1 0 -1 1 -1
SIQUIJOR 21 16 17 19 19 17 20 16 18 20 19 16 0 0 1 1 0 0
REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS)
BILIRAN 20 15 16 18 15 15 19 15 15 16 16 14 -1 0 0 -1 1 -1
EASTERN SAMAR 15 12 14 17 15 12 14 12 14 17 15 12 -1 0 0 0 1 0
LEYTE 20 15 16 17 16 16 18 16 15 17 16 13 -2 1 0 -1 0 -3
NORTHERN SAMAR 17 14 15 18 15 13 16 13 15 18 16 12 -1 -1 0 0 1 -1
Note: Dry day is defined SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 17 13 14 17 15 13 16 13 14 17 15 13 -1 0 0 0 1 -1
SOUTHERN LEYTE 20 16 16 17 16 15 19 17 15 17 17 12 -1 1 -1 0 1 -3
as a day with less than 1 REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA)
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 19 15 17 18 17 15 17 14 18 17 17 13 -2 -1 1 -1 0 -3
mm of rainfall is ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 18 14 16 17 16 15 16 13 17 16 16 13 -2 -1 1 -1 0 -2
ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 19 15 17 18 17 16 16 14 18 17 17 13 -2 -1 1 -1 0 -3
observed. REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO)
BUKIDNON 14 12 13 14 13 14 15 13 14 13 13 13 1 1 1 -1 0 -1
CAMIGUIN 20 17 17 18 18 17 20 18 17 19 19 18 0 1 0 1 1 1
LANAO DEL NORTE 17 13 15 16 16 15 16 13 15 15 16 15 -1 0 1 -1 1 0
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL 17 14 15 17 16 14 16 13 17 16 16 14 -1 0 1 -1 0 -1
MISAMIS ORIENTAL 18 15 16 17 17 17 18 16 16 17 18 17 0 1 0 0 1 0
REGION XI (DAVAO REGION)
CAMPOSTELA VALLEY 16 16 17 17 18 18 16 16 17 17 20 17 0 0 0 0 2 -1
DAVAO CITY 17 15 16 16 16 17 17 15 16 16 18 16 1 0 0 0 1 -1
DAVAO DEL NORTE 16 15 16 16 16 17 16 15 16 15 17 16 0 0 0 -1 1 -1
DAVAO DEL SUR 19 17 18 19 18 19 20 17 18 19 19 18 1 0 0 1 1 -2
DAVAO OCCIDENTAL 22 20 21 21 21 22 23 19 21 24 23 20 1 -1 0 2 1 -2
DAVAO ORIENTAL 18 17 18 18 20 19 18 17 19 19 22 18 0 0 0 1 2 -1
REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)
SOUTH COTABATO 20 17 18 20 18 20 21 16 18 21 19 17 1 -1 0 1 1 -3
COTABATO 16 13 15 16 14 16 16 13 15 15 15 14 1 0 0 -1 1 -2
SARANGANI 22 19 20 21 20 21 23 18 20 23 21 19 1 -1 0 2 1 -3
SULTAN KUDARAT 18 15 17 18 16 18 19 14 17 18 17 15 0 -1 0 0 1 -2
REGION XIII- CARAGA
AGUSAN DEL NORTE 19 15 18 19 18 17 18 15 18 18 18 17 -1 -1 0 -1 0 -1
AGUSAN DEL SUR 15 13 15 16 16 16 15 14 16 15 16 14 0 0 1 -1 0 -1
DINAGAT ISLANDS 19 14 17 18 17 14 19 13 17 18 18 12 -1 0 0 0 1 -2
SURIGAO DEL NORTE 19 14 17 18 18 14 19 13 18 18 18 13 0 0 0 0 0 -1
SURIGAO DEL SUR 16 13 16 17 17 15 15 13 17 17 18 14 0 0 1 0 1 -1
ARMM
BASILAN 21 18 19 20 19 19 19 17 19 20 20 17 -2 -1 0 0 1 -2
MAGUINDANAO 16 13 15 17 15 16 16 12 15 15 15 14 0 -1 0 -1 0 -2
LANAO DEL SUR 15 13 14 15 14 15 15 13 14 14 15 14 0 0 0 -1 1 -1
SULU 22 19 20 21 20 20 21 19 19 22 21 19 -1 0 -1 1 1 -2
TAWI-TAWI 23 21 21 23 21 21 21 21 20 23 22 19 -2 0 -1 0 1 -2
 average

MONTHLY MEAN
TEMPERATURE FORECAST warmer

(MAY-OCTOBER 2022)
warmer
warmer

slightly warmer

slightly cooler

slightly warmer cooler

average

slightly warmer

average warmer
warmer slightly warmer

slightly warmer

slightly cooler slightly warmer

average

warmer
warmer
average

average
warmer warmer
Slightly Cooler

Slightly Cooler

cooler
slightly warmer average average

slightly cooler cooler

average average
Slightly Cooler
slightly warmer

slightly warmer cooler warmer

warmer
slightly warmer slightly warmer
average average

average
 FORECAST RANGES OF EXTREME TEMPERATURE
Updated : 27 APRIL 2022

May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22

TMAX Summary
Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range
Northern Luzon 31.2 40.6 31.6 39.2 31.0 38.3 30.4 37.3 29.9 36.6 28.6 35.5
Lowlands Luzon 30.6 40.3 30.4 38.4 29.5 38.7 28.3 39.1 28.5 36.5 28.0 35.7
Mountainous Luzon 26.2 29.4 26.2 28.6 26.0 27.5 25.3 27.3 24.6 26.5 25.4 26.6
Metro Manila 35.6 38.0 34.6 37.2 34.5 37.0 32.4 37.1 32.4 35.8 33.0 34.8
Lowlands Visayas 32.4 37.9 32.7 38.5 32.0 36.3 31.8 37.1 31.0 36.3 31.2 35.5
Lowlands Mindanao 33.3 38.4 32.9 37.9 33.1 37.9 33.3 37.5 33.3 37.5 33.0 36.6
Mountainous Mindanao 33.4 36.5 31.9 34.5 31.6 33.0 32.0 33.5 32.0 33.0 32.0 33.5

May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22

TMIN Summary
Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range
Northern Luzon 19.8 25.0 20.9 25.2 13.8 25.1 -999.0 24.9 16.4 24.5 16.1 24.9
Lowlands Luzon 18.0 27.0 18.0 26.1 16.9 25.2 16.7 25.0 18.0 27.9 18.0 26.0
Mountainous Luzon 15.0 16.2 14.3 16.3 14.3 15.6 14.1 15.5 14.0 15.4 12.9 15.0
Metro Manila 22.7 25.5 23.1 25.0 22.3 24.6 22.0 24.1 22.4 24.4 21.5 24.1
Lowlands Visayas 20.0 25.5 20.0 29.0 19.5 25.1 20.0 25.2 21.1 25.1 20.3 24.9
Lowlands Mindanao 20.9 25.5 18.4 24.3 20.4 24.2 20.5 25.0 20.7 24.0 20.1 24.2
Mountainous Mindanao 15.7 18.4 17.0 18.9 15.5 18.1 15.0 19.0 15.0 19.2 15.1 19.1
 Tropical Cyclone Tracks Climatology with actual tracks from 1948-2015

MAY AUGUST
0 or 1 2 or 3
2022 2022
JUNE SEPTEMBER
1 OR 2 2 or 3
2022 2022
JULY OCTOBER
1 to 3 2 or 3
2022 2022
SUMMARY
▪ ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory #7
• La Niña has slightly strengthened and is likely to continue through the June-August
2022 (59% chance), with a 50-55% chance of La Niña thereafter.
• Forecast Rainfall
• May2022 – near normal rainfall conditions are expected over most areas of the country,
however, Bataan, Occ. Mindoro, Neg. Oriental and Siquijor are likely to receive above normal
rainfall;
• June 2022 – generally near normal rainfall conditions are expected in most parts of the country
except for CAR, Region I and Cagayan where below normal rainfall conditions are likely;
• July 2022 – below normal rainfall conditions are expected in Abra, Benguet, Apayao, Region I
except Ilocos Sur, Tarlac and Sorsogon, while near normal rainfall conditions are likely for the
rest of the country;
• August 2022 – generally near normal rainfall conditions are expected throughout the country
except Pampanga and Tarlac where below normal rainfall conditions are likely;
• September and October 2022 – generally near to above normal rainfall conditions are
forecasted throughout the country.
SUMMARY
▪ Forecast Temperature
• Generally, surface air temperatures range from below average to slightly above
average throughout the country during the forecast period are predicted.
However, in May, most parts of Luzon and some parts of Mindanao are likely to
experience warmer than average temperatures.

▪ Tropical Cyclone Forecast

• 8 – 12 tropical cyclones are expected to enter/develop in the PAR from MAY to
OCTOBER 2022.

▪ Onset of rainy season associated with the SW monsoon is expected to be

normal.
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