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X XY Error Date of Share Price Share Price (Y) X Estimated (Ŷ) A+b (X)
X XY Error Date of Share Price Share Price (Y) X Estimated (Ŷ) A+b (X)
X XY Error Date of Share Price Share Price (Y) X Estimated (Ŷ) A+b (X)
MAE(MEAN
ABSOLUTE Standard
ERROR 13.30606767 deviation 3.38 1/12/2018 1.310513447433
MSE(MEAN
SQUARE
ERROR) 216.5680111 MAXIMUM 180.90 1/19/2018 1.32706413391
MEAN
ABSOLUTE
PERCENTAGE
ERROR 10.85 MINIMUM 93.15 1/26/2018 1.360917810796
4.3875 2/2/2018 1.21760391198
2/9/2018 1.179612563476
2/16/2018 0.944517585104
2/23/2018 0.853488809479
s 3/1/2018 0.760203122061
3/9/2018 0.719202557833
3/16/2018 0.743652435584
3/23/2018 0.700771111529
3/30/2018 0.716945646041
4/6/2018 0.7684784653
4/13/2018 0.762083881888
4/20/2018 0.704156479218
4/27/2018 0.702651871356
SEASONAL
PERCENTAGE FORECAST
I ERROR I (ERROR)2 ERROR WITH TREND
Estimated & Actua
15.61 243.5606 9.0946553447 187.206428571
5.54 30.72035 3.1500960415 16.8045644599 INR 200.00
4.38 19.17353 2.5547020995 25.2068466899
5.94 35.22512 3.3722018113 33.6091289199 INR 190.00
9.85 97.00102 5.6537943596 42.0114111498
INR 180.00
17.76 315.5151 10.069582971 50.4136933798
27.98 782.689 15.465217771 58.8159756098 INR 170.00
14.64 214.3417 9.0456679233 67.2182578397
15.30 234.22 9.7603623216 75.6205400697 INR 160.00
10.23 104.6921 8.1496752634 84.0228222997
INR 150.00
16.62 276.1607 14.647935396 92.4251045296
23.30 543.088 23.062096111 100.82738676 INR 140.00
23.04 530.8607 24.100850977 109.22966899
14.08 198.1501 14.240342891 117.63195122 INR 130.00
14.06 197.7608 15.096880688 126.034233449
INR 120.00
6.20 38.42648 6.5046272554 134.436515679
6.36 40.51227 6.2309591895 142.838797909 INR 110.00
11.23 126.085 11.084658834 151.241080139
9.24 85.42554 9.8745662233 159.643362369 INR 100.00
14.76 217.7522 15.799174059 168.045644599
INR 90.00
266.12 4331.36 216.96
INR 80.00
data pattern CYCLICAL .The net loss will be around Rs 5000 cro
119.50
oss will be around Rs 5000 crores .After writing off Rs.5000 crores from reserves still Reserve left is Rs .35500 crores .Bank is still
Calculation Calculation
SLOPE(B) 0.207714286 MEDIAN 2.89 DATA RANGE 2-18 TO 3.36
MAE(MEAN
ABSOLUTE Standard
ERROR 0.095571429 deviation 0.11
MSE(MEAN
SQUARE
ERROR) 0.056440317 MAXIMUM 3.36
MEAN
ABSOLUTE
PERCENTAGE
ERROR -69.25 MINIMUM 2.18
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
PERCENTAGE SEASONAL FORECAST
ERROR WITH TREND
4.00
Estimated & A
-6.07 1.78022029765408
-4.14 2.15372471201547
3.50
1.17 2.65877137812158
12.63 3.4832348440259 3.00
3.58 3.61870142100395
-11.33 3.56198940553267 2.50
0
0 2.00
0
1.50
0
-4.15 1.00
0.50
0.00
2016 2017 2018
Turnover(Y) in trillion
SEASONAL FORECAST WITH TRE
0.7698646263
0.8546203649
0.9746909947
1.1865803414
1.1512654503
1.0629782225
Estimated & Actual Data
1100.0
Calculation
1050.0
1400.00
1350.00
1300.00
ESTIMATEd(Ŷ)=A+b(x)
1250.00
Y=share price
Axis Title
1200.00
1150.00
1100.00
1050.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
d(Ŷ)=A+b(x)
ice
ESTIMATE
YEAR OF Turnover(Y) D (Ŷ)=
SALE X in Billion XY X2 A+b(X) ERROR I ERROR I
Jun-17 JUNE 1 571.26 571.26 1.00 589.88 -18.62 18.62
Sep-17 SEP 2 533.25 1066.50 4.00 601.77 -68.51 68.51
Dec-17 DEC 3 606.16 1818.49 9.00 613.65 -7.49 7.49
Mar-18 MARCH 4 652.39 2609.57 16.00 625.54 26.86 26.86
Jun-18 JUNE 5 716.97 3584.84 25.00 637.42 79.54 79.54
Sep-18 SEP 6 722.92 4337.51 36.00 649.31 73.61 73.61
Dec-18 DEC 7 792.03 5544.22 49.00 661.19 130.84 130.84
Mar-19 MARCH 8 739.90 5919.23 64.00 673.08 66.83 66.83
Jun-19 JUNE 9 763.18 6868.61 81.00 684.96 78.21 78.21
Sep-19 SEP 10 643.41 6434.08 100.00 696.85 -53.44 53.44
Dec-19 DEC 11 747.33 8220.61 121.00 708.74 38.59 38.59
Mar-20 MARCH 12 689.91 8278.97 144.00 720.62 -30.71 30.71
Jun-20 JUNE 13 387.85 5042.06 169.00 732.51 -344.66 344.66
Sep-20 SEP 14 501.46 7020.49 196.00 744.39 -242.93 242.93
Dec-20 DEC 15 667.31 10009.71 225.00 756.28 -88.96 88.96
Mar-21 MARCH 16 768.82 12301.17 256.00 768.16 0.66 0.66
Jun-21 JUNE 17 709.21 12056.62 289.00 780.05 -70.84 70.84
Sep-21 SEP 18 1016.32 18293.70 324.00 791.93 224.38 224.38
Dec-21 DEC 19 1010.45 19198.60 361.00 803.82 206.63 206.63
Mar-22 MARCH 20 ? 815.71
13240.15 0.00 1852.31
Calculation Calculation
SLOPE(B) 11.88549965 MEDIAN 709.21 DATA RAN387.85 TO 1016.32
MAE(MEAN
ABSOLUTE Standard
ERROR 97.49021008 deviation 30.43
MSE(MEAN
SQUARE
ERROR) 17596.50142 MAXIMUM 1016.32
MEAN
ABSOLUTE
PERCENTAGE
ERROR 15.77 MINIMUM 387.85
PERCENTAGE seasonal ESTIMATIVE-
(ERROR)2 ERROR index SEASONAL reference
346.79802 3.26 533.03 38.23 https://www.moneycontrol.com/financials/bharatpetroleumcorporati
4694.17 12.85 590.21 -56.96
56.068841 1.24 673.36 -67.20 Trend line V/
721.24943 4.12 639.82 12.58
ESTIMATED (Ŷ)= A+b(X)
6327.3733 11.09 575.99 140.97
5418.4598 10.18 636.84 86.08 900.00
17118.475 16.52 725.53 66.50 850.00
4465.6059 9.03 688.45 51.46 800.00
6117.5689 10.25 618.95 144.23
750.00
2856.0699 8.31 683.47 -40.06 725.53
1489.3726 5.16 777.70 -30.37 700.00 688.45 6
673.36 661.19 673.08
942.89589 4.45 737.07 -47.16 650.00 649.31
639.82 637.42 636.84
613.65 625.54 6
118787.76 88.86 661.91 -274.06 600.00
589.88 601.77
590.21
59014.212 48.44 730.10 -228.64 575.99
550.00
7914.5237 13.33 829.87 -162.55 533.03
0.4358529 0.09 785.70 -16.88 500.00Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-1
5017.6975 9.99 704.87 4.34
50347.593 22.08 776.73 239.59 1100.00
42697.194 20.45 882.04 128.42 1050.00
1000.00
334333.53 299.70 13251.66 -11.51 950.00
900.00
850.00
800.00
750.00
700.00
650.00
600.00
550.00
500.00
450.00
400.00
350.00
Jun-17 Nov-17 Apr-18 Sep-18 Feb-19 Jul-19 Dec-19 M
2016 Err:504
2017 Err:504
2018 Err:504
2019 Err:504
2020 Err:504
2021 Err:504
s/bharatpetroleumcorporation/results/quarterly-results/BPC/1#BPC
882.04
829.87
803.82
777.70 785.70 780.05 791.93
776.73
756.28 768.16
725.53 737.07 732.51 744.39
730.10
708.74 720.62 704.87
688.45 684.96 696.85
683.47
661.19 673.08 661.91
7.42 649.31
636.84
618.95
5.99
Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21
600.00
400.00
200.00
0.00
Jun-17 Jun-19 Jun-2
-200.00
-400.00
seasonal index
ESTIMATIVE- SEASONAL
Jun-19 Jun-21